Market Capitalization $3.1 Billion
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- Elinor Burns
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1 BUY HOLD SELL A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D+ D D- E+ E E- F Annual Dividend Rate HOLD HOLD RATING SINCE 09/08/2009 MFA BUSINESS DESCRIPTION MFA Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and residential whole loans, and credit risk transfer securities. STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 3 Yr (Ann) Price Change GROWTH (%) Last Qtr 12 Mo. 3 Yr CAGR Revenues Net Income EPS RETURN ON EQUITY (%) MFA Ind Avg S&P 500 Q Q Q Sector: Financial Services Sub-Industry: Mortgage REITs Source: S&P Weekly Price: (US$) SMA (50) SMA (100) 1 Year 2 Years Rating History HOLD Volume in Millions COMPUSTAT for Price and Volume, TheStreet Ratings, Inc. for Rating History P/E COMPARISON RECOMMENDATION We rate (MFA) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing nesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its increase in net income, revenue growth and notable return on equity. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find nesses including generally higher debt management risk, operating cash flow and feeble growth in the company's earnings per share MFA Ind Avg S&P 500 HIGHLIGHTS The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has significantly exceeded that of the Mortgage REITs industry average, but is less than that of the S&P 500. The net income increased by 1.1% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from $78.07 million to $78.95 million. EPS ANALYSIS¹ ($) Despite its growing revenue, the company underperformed as compared with the industry average of 11.9%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 2.5%. This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, displaying stagnant earnings per share. Compared to where it was a year ago today, the stock is now trading at a higher level, regardless of the company's earnings results. Despite the fact that it has already risen in the past year, there is currently no conclusive evidence that warrants the purchase or sale of this stock. Q Q Q Q Q NA = not available NM = not meaningful Q Q Compustat fiscal year convention is used for all fundamental data items. Although MFA's debt-to-equity ratio of 3.10 is very high, it is currently less than that of the industry average. Net operating cash flow has significantly decreased to -$2.89 million or % when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing to the industry average, the firm's growth rate is much lower. PAGE 1
2 PEER GROUP ANALYSIS REVENUE GROWTH AND EBITDA MARGIN* Revenue Growth (TTM) -40% 120% UNFAVORABLE TWO 45% ARI EBITDA Margin (TTM) CIM FAVORABLE NRZ CYS IVR AGNC 95% Companies with higher EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates are outperforming companies with lower EBITDA margins and revenue growth rates. Companies for this scatter plot have a market capitalization between $1.6 Billion and $6.9 Billion. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. *EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization. REVENUE GROWTH AND EARNINGS YIELD Revenue Growth (TTM) -40% 120% UNFAVORABLE AGNC IVR -15% Earnings Yield (TTM) CLNY STWD TWO FAVORABLE ARI CIM BXMT NRZ CYS MFA 15% Companies that exhibit both a high earnings yield and high revenue growth are generally more attractive than companies with low revenue growth and low earnings yield. Companies for this scatter plot have revenue growth rates between -28.9% and 101%. Companies with NA or NM values do not appear. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS The US real estate industry is one of the larger components of the US economy. The industry is cyclical and depends upon economic growth and demographic trends. The level and volatility of interest rates ly affect the industry. Real estate prices skyrocketed during the past decade due to rising demand and low interest rates. Residential construction and sales of existing homes remained during However, by the end of 2006, the residential market slumped and prices started to decline as a result of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and broader economic slowdown. This culminated in a nationwide crash in real estate values that has since leveled out and begun to slowly strengthen. Tighter credit and declining prices throughout the US that damaged the industry have begun to reverse course. The market has experienced a period of high delinquencies and foreclosures, which has resulted from the wide scale price collapse. Many homes are under foreclosure proceedings or are now owned by lenders. Also, the commercial real estate market has witnessed a spill-over impact from the decline in the residential market. The US real estate industry is comprised of real estate investment trusts (REIT) and real estate management and development. A REIT is a corporation or trust that uses pooled capital to issue mortgage loans to builders/developers or directly invests in income-generating property that offers tax benefits with respect to interest and capital gains. The real estate management and development industry includes companies engaged in ownership, management and development. There are three principal types of REITs: equity REITs, mortgage REITs and hybrid REITs. Equity REITs own properties and generate revenue through the rental and sale of property. Roughly 90% of REITs are equity based. The US sub-prime debacle adversely impacted the performance of REITs when access to capital via public debt and equity markets became more challenging. Mortgage REITs remain in the financial sector while all other Real Estate stocks are grouped under the newly designated Real Estate sector in Mortgage REITs may originate, purchase, and securitize both residential and commercial mortgage loans and other mortgage-backed securities and assets. Real estate management and development is separate and distinct from the REIT industry. With higher structural flexibility, the trade-off for investors is generally lower dividend yields than are available from REITs. Secular changes such as increased outsourcing of real estate services are propelling the industry forward. After years of performance, the slowdown in the US economy and deterioration in the housing market may have abated positively impacting performance in the coming years. PEER GROUP: Mortgage REITs Recent Market Price/ Net Sales Net Income Ticker Company Name Price ($) Cap ($M) Earnings TTM ($M) TTM ($M) MFA , AGNC AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY COR ,903 NM 1, STWD STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC , NRZ NEW RESIDENTIAL INV CP , TWO TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP , CIM CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORP , BXMT BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TR INC , CLNY COLONY CAPITAL INC , IVR INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC ,111 NM ARI APOLLO COMMERCIAL RE FIN INC , CYS CYS INVESTMENTS INC , The peer group comparison is based on Major Mortgage REITs companies of comparable size. PAGE 2
3 Annual Dividend Rate COMPANY DESCRIPTION MFA Financial, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and residential whole loans, and credit risk transfer securities. Its MBS are secured by hybrid mortgages, adjustable-rate mortgages, and 15-year and longer term fixed-rate mortgages, as well as by mortgages that have interest rates that reset more frequently. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT for the U.S. federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York. 350 Park Avenue, 20th Floor New York, NY USA Phone: Fax: STOCK-AT-A-GLANCE Below is a summary of the major fundamental and technical factors we consider when determining our overall recommendation of MFA shares. It is provided in order to give you a deeper understanding of our rating methodology as well as to paint a more complete picture of a stock's strengths and nesses. It is important to note, however, that these factors only tell part of the story. To gain an even more comprehensive understanding of our stance on the stock, these factors must be assessed in combination with the stock s valuation. Please refer to our Valuation section on page 5 for further information. FACTOR SCORE Growth 2.5 out of 5 stars Measures the growth of both the company's income statement and cash flow. On this factor, MFA has a growth score better than 40% of the stocks we rate. Total Return 3.0 out of 5 stars Measures the historical price movement of the stock. The stock performance of this company has beaten 50% of the companies we cover. Efficiency 4.0 out of 5 stars Measures the strength and historic growth of a company's return on invested capital. The company has generated more income per dollar of capital than 70% of the companies we review. Price volatility 3.5 out of 5 stars Measures the volatility of the company's stock price historically. The stock is less volatile than 60% of the stocks we monitor. Solvency 0.5 out of 5 stars Measures the solvency of the company based on several ratios. The company is less solvent than nearly all of the companies we analyze. Income 5.0 out of 5 stars Measures dividend yield and payouts to shareholders. The company's dividend is higher than 90% of the companies we track. THESTREET RATINGS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates. While our model is quantitative, it utilizes both subjective and objective elements. For instance, subjective elements include expected equities market returns, future interest rates, implied industry outlook and forecasted company earnings. Objective elements include volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e.how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's performance. These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. PAGE 3
4 Consensus EPS Estimates² ($) IBES consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 's gross profit margin for the second quarter of its fiscal year 2016 is essentially unchanged when compared to the same period a year ago. The company has grown its sales and net income during the past quarter when compared with the same quarter a year ago, and although its growth in net income has outpaced the industry average, its revenue growth has not. During the same period, stockholders' equity ("net worth") has decreased by 6.29% from the same quarter last year Q3 FY E 2016(E) 0.77 E 2017(E) STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12-months. To learn more visit INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) NA NA EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) 12, , Total Debt ($mil) 9, , Equity ($mil) 2, , PROFITABILITY Gross Profit Margin 89.24% 90.18% EBITDA Margin NA NA Operating Margin 89.24% 90.18% Sales Turnover Return on Assets 2.41% 2.33% Return on Equity 10.00% 9.65% DEBT Current Ratio NA NA Debt/Capital Interest Expense Interest Coverage SHARE DATA Shares outstanding (mil) Div / share EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % NA NA Avg Daily Volume 1,776,289 1,666,035 2 Sum of quarterly figures may not match annual estimates due to use of median consensus estimates. PAGE 4
5 RATINGS HISTORY Our rating for has not changed since 2/25/2009. As of 9/8/2016, the stock was trading at a price of which is.8% below its 52-week high of $7.86 and 39.0% above its 52-week low of $ Year Chart HOLD: $ $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 MOST RECENT RATINGS CHANGES Date Price Action From To 9/8/14 $8.43 No Change Hold Hold Price reflects the closing price as of the date listed, if available RATINGS DEFINITIONS & DISTRIBUTION OF THESTREET RATINGS (as of 9/8/2016) 40.92% Buy - We believe that this stock has the opportunity to appreciate and produce a total return of more than 10% over the next 12 months % Hold - We do not believe this stock offers conclusive evidence to warrant the purchase or sale of shares at this time and that its likelihood of positive total return is roughly in balance with the risk of loss % Sell - We believe that this stock is likely to decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months, with the risk involved too great to compensate for any possible returns. TheStreet Ratings 14 Wall Street, 15th Floor New York, NY Research Contact: Sales Contact: VALUATION HOLD. 's P/E ratio indicates a significant discount compared to an average of for the Mortgage REITs industry and a significant discount compared to the S&P 500 average of To use another comparison, its price-to-book ratio of 0.98 indicates a significant discount versus the S&P 500 average of 2.83 and a premium versus the industry average of The price-to-sales ratio is well above both the S&P 500 average and the industry average, indicating a premium. Price/Earnings MFA 9.87 Peers Discount. A lower P/E ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower growth expectations. MFA is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Price/Projected Earnings MFA Peers Discount. A lower price-to-projected earnings ratio than its peers can signify a less expensive stock or lower future growth expectations. MFA is trading at a significant discount to its peers. Price/Book MFA 0.98 Peers 0.96 Average. A lower price-to-book ratio makes a stock more attractive to investors seeking stocks with lower market values per dollar of equity on the balance sheet. MFA is trading at a valuation on par with its peers. Price/Sales MFA 5.27 Peers 4.51 Premium. In the absence of P/E and P/B multiples, the price-to-sales ratio can display the value investors are placing on each dollar of sales. MFA is trading at a premium to its industry on this measurement. DISCLAIMER: Price/CashFlow MFA Peers Average. The P/CF ratio, a stock s price divided by the company's cash flow from operations, is useful for comparing companies with different capital requirements or financing structures. MFA is trading at a valuation on par to its peers. Price to Earnings/Growth MFA NM Peers 1.83 Neutral. The PEG ratio is the stock s P/E divided by the consensus estimate of long-term earnings growth. Faster growth can justify higher price multiples. MFA's negative PEG ratio makes this valuation measure meaningless. Earnings Growth lower higher MFA Peers Higher. Elevated earnings growth rates can lead to capital appreciation and justify higher price-to-earnings ratios. MFA is expected to have an earnings growth rate that significantly exceeds its peers. Sales Growth lower higher MFA 4.91 Peers 6.12 Lower. A sales growth rate that trails the industry implies that a company is losing market share. MFA trails its peers on the basis of sales growth The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but TheStreet Ratings cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. Data is provided via the COMPUSTAT Xpressfeed product from Standard &Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., as well as other third-party data providers. TheStreet Ratings is a division of TheStreet, Inc., which is a publisher. This research report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional, before you make any investment. None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by TheStreet Ratings of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by TheStreet Ratings that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Your use of this report is governed by TheStreet, Inc.'s Terms of Use found at PAGE 5
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