department of financial services

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1 gwinnett county Economic Indicars june 4 v3, n department of financial services Leading Economic Index Rises as Initial Unemployment Claims Fall; Current Index Rises on Improving Hotel/Motel Tax Receipts The Gwinnett County Index of Leading Economic Indicars rose in May its second highest level since early. All components of the index contributed the increase the first time that has happened in seven months. The index, which is designed forecast the county s economic performance 3 6 months in advance, was at in May.5 percent above where it was a year ago. The index has been above the 1-month moving average for eight consecutive months. Traditionally, if the index is consistently above this average it means that the economy is likely enter (or continue) a in this issue economic indicies 3Q '3 employment index data period of economic expansion. Clearly, the index suggests that the Gwinnett economy is on a sustainable path economic recovery (Figure 1). One of the most encouraging signs of economic recovery is the decline in the number of initial claims for unemployment. Through the first five months of the year, monthly initial claims have averaged just over 1,. While still high by hisrical standards, it is a significant improvement from the two previous years where the same five months averaged more than,4 (Figure ). Figure 1: Gwinnett County Leading Economic Index (1997 = ) 1 Leading Index Down -.6% Gwinnett Sck Index 5.5% 96 Consumer Expectations 6.% 94 Manufacturing Weekly Hours.6% 9 Single Family Building Permits.8% Leading Economic Index.5% 1-month Initial Unemployment Claims 98 l 8 9 l 9 l 1 l 1 l 3 l l 7 7

2 current economic indicars 4, 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1, 5 9 Apr9 l9 Figure : Gwinnett County Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted) Oct9 Apr l Oct 1 Apr1 l1 Oct1 Apr l Oct 3 Apr3 l3 Oct3 4 Apr4 Another strong leading indicar has been the Bloomberg Gwinnett Sck Index. While still well below the peak set in February (just before the NASDAQ collapse) the index has sustained doubledigit year-over-year growth for 11 consecutive months. At the end of May, the index was 45.7 percent higher than it was one year ago (Figure 3). 8% 6% 4% % % -% -4% Apr Figure 3: Bloomberg Gwinnett Sck Index l (Year-over-Year Change) Oct 3 Apr3 Current Economic Indicars The Gwinnett County Index of Current Economic Indicars rose.5 percent in April As was the case with the leading index, all four indicars contributed the increase. The index, which is designed track the current state of the Gwinnett l3 Oct3 4 Apr4 County economy, was above the 1-month moving average for the 13 th consecutive month, and was.9 percent above where it was a year ago. This is significant because if the index is consistently above this average, then the economy is experiencing a period of growth (Figure 4) Figure 4: Gwinnett County Current Economic Index 8 9 (1997 = ) 1 1-month 3 4 Reflective of this economic growth, sales tax revenue continues show extremely strong growth. Adjusted for inflation and seasonal variation, six of the last nine months have posted double-digit year-overyear growth. The latest month (April) posted the highest annual increase so far coming in 19.3 percent above the same month a year ago (Figure 5). The county hasn t seen that kind of annual increase since uary 1. 4% % 16% 1% 8% 4% % -4% -8% -1% -16% Figure 5: Gwinnett County Sales Tax Revenues Year--Year Percent Change (Seasonally Adjusted; Constant Dollars) Apr1 l1 Oct1 Apr l Oct 3 Apr3 l3 Oct3 4 Apr4 page

3 3page lagging economic indicars Hotel/motel tax receipts posted a strong increase in April as room nights grew at nearly 1 percent. However, the number of room nights was still down from the same month a year ago. On a 1-month basis, the number of room nights is still declining, although it appears as if the trend is about turn positive (Figure 6). Even so, the secr is still nearly 1 percent below its pre 9/11 peak. Figure 6: Gwinnett Hotel/Motel Room Nights (Year-overYear Growth in the 1-Month Moving Average) 4% % However, in the last two months, the index has been above the 1-month average, suggesting that the index is about turn positive. If so, it would be a confirmation that in fact, the Gwinnett economy has indeed turned the corner and is well in an economic recovery (Figure 7). Figure 7: Gwinnett County Lagging Economic Index (1997 = ) 15 1-month 95 % -% -4% -6% -8% -1% 1 Apr1 l1 Oct1 Apr l Oct 3 Apr3 l3 Oct3 4 Apr4 Lagging Economic Indicars The Gwinnett County Index of Lagging Economic Indicars rose. percent in March The index, which is designed confirm turns in the Gwinnett County economy, had been below the 1- month for 37 consecutive months prior February 4. This is significant because even if the other economic indices have turned positive, until the lagging index turns, the economy may not yet have actually recovered. During the past recession, short-term improvements in the other indices were not followed by turns in the lagging index, and in fact, were shown be anomalies in the data, rather than a true change of economic condition May7 Sep7 8 May8 Sep8 9 May9 Sep9 May Sep 1 May1 Sep1 May Sep 3 May3 Sep3 4 ~ Alfie Meek Direcr Forecasting & Research Division

4 4page gwinnett county employment data - 3rd quarter 3 3rd Quarter nd Quarter 3rd Quarter Quarterly Y-Y 3 3 Growth Growth Goods Producing 47,89 47,444 47,9.7% -1.5% Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing (11) % 17.5% Mining (1) % -15.7% Construction (3),671 1,6 1,93 3.3% 6.1% Manufacturing (31-33) 6,717 5,757 4,731-4.% -7.4% Food Manufacturing (311) 1,114 1,31 1,3-8.% 8.% Beverage & Tobacco Manufacturing (31) %.5% Textile Mills (313) % -3.6% Textile Product Mills (314) % 6.9% Apparel Manufacturing (315) % -8.6% Leather & Allied Product Manufacturing (316) % -56.% Wood Product Manufacturing (31) %.9% Paper Manufacturing (3) % -5.5% Printing and Related Activities (33),699,36,31.% -17.3% Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing (34) % -8.4% Chemical Manufacturing (35) 1,5 1, 1, % -1.1% Plastics & Rubber Products Manufacturing (36) 1,48 1,33 1,95 -.1% -1.5% Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing (37) % -.3% Primary Metal Manufacturing (331) % 13.6% Fabricated Metal Manufacturing (33) 1,73 1,6 1,694.% -.1% Machinery Manufacturing (333) 1,77 1,5 1, %.8% Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing (334) 6,939 5,497 5, % -1.6% Electrical Equipment/Appliance (335) 893 1,831 1,79-5.6% 93.6% Transportation Equipment (336) 1, % -8.% Furniture and Related Products Manufacturing (337) % 6.8% Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries (339) 3,33 3,413 3,36-1.6% 1.1% Service Producing 16,38 14,693 19,969.5% 1.8% Wholesale Trade (4) 3,589 3,184 31,156 3.% 1.9% Retail Trade (44-45) 43,379 4,8 4,469.4% -.1% Transportation and Warehousing (48-49) 4,99 4,853 5,51 4.1%.5% Utilities % 4.9% Information (51) 1,768 11,355 11,378.% -1.9% Finance and Insurance (5) 15,858 15,13 15,1.4% -4.% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (53) 4,359 4,688 4,73.9% 8.5% Professional, Scientific/Technical Services (54) 18,11 18,4 18,549.8%.4% Management: Companies/Enterprises (55) 6, 4,6 5, % -13.1% Administrative, Support, and Waste Mgt. Services (56) 8,115 3,5 31, % 1.4% Educational Services (61),37,7, % -7.8% Health Care and Social Services (6) 16,169 17,813 17,976.9% 11.% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71),465,66,317.3% -6.% Accomodation and Food Services (7),14 3,8 4,64 3.6% 8.3% Other Services (81) 8,61 7,31 7,45.% -7.6% Unclassified (industry not assigned) 1, % -67.4% Total Private Employment 65,386 63,5 67,56 1.7%.8% Total - Government 7,97 5,496 4,731-3.% -8.7% Federal 3,53 3,4 3,56.5% -1.8% State 1,88 1,935 1,937.1%.9% Local 1,71,519 19, %.1% Total - All Industries 9,483 88,546 9,93 1.3%.1% * Denotes confidential data relating individual employers which cannot be released. Source: Georgia Department of Labor. Data represent jobs covered by unemployment insurance legislation.

5 5page index data Gwinnett County, Georgia Business Cycle Indicars ne, 4 Gwinnett County Economic Indices: May4 Apr4 Mar4 Feb4 4 Leading Economic Index (1997 = ) Current Economic Index ( 1997 = ) Lagging Economic Index (1997 = ) Apr4 May3 Gwinnett County Leading Economic Index May4 Apr4 May3 May4 May4 Leading Economic Index (1997=) %.5% Initial Unemployment Claims (Seasonally Adjusted) 1,894 1,944,63 -.6% -7.% Initial Unemployment Claims (Unadjusted) 1,65 1,6, % -31.7% Bloomberg Gwinnett Sck Index (1/31/97 = ) % 45.7% South Atlantic Consumer Expectations % 9.4% Atlanta Manufacturing Averge Weekly Hours (Seasonally Adjusted) %.5% Atlanta Manufacturing Averge Weekly Hours (Unadjusted) %.5% New Single Family Building Permits (Seasonally Adjusted) % 18.5% New Single Family Building Permits (Unadjusted) % 13.4% Mar4 Apr3 Gwinnett County Current Economic Index * Apr4 Mar4 Apr3 Apr4 Apr4 Current Economic Index (1997=) %.9% Sales Tax Receipts (Constant $'s; Ths., Seasonally Adj.) $8,18.8 $7,87.8 $6, % 19.3% Sales Tax Receipts (Current $'s, Ths., Unadjusted) $11,. $1,73.7 $9, % 18.7% Household Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) 376, , ,556.1% 1.3% Household Employment (Unadjusted) 376, ,563 37,154.1% 1.3% South Atlantic Consumer Confidence (Present Situation) % 18.4% Hotel/Motel Tax Receipts (Constant $'s; Ths., Seasonally Adj.) $18.6 $17.5 $ % 7.% Hotel/Motel Tax Receipts (Current $'s, Ths., Unadjusted) $495. $435. $ % 13.9% * (Data for the Current Index is one month behind due the lag in getting sales tax receipts) Gwinnett County Lagging Economic Index ** Mar4 Feb4 4 Dec3 Nov3 Lagging Economic Index (1997=) Average Duration of Unemployment Benefits (Weeks, Seasonally Adjusted) Average Duration of Unemployment Benefits (Weeks, Unadjusted) Prime Rate Charged by Banks Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) 3.% 3.% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted) 3.1% 3.% 3.8% 3.4% 3.5% Bankruptcies (Number, 1-month ending) 4,731 4,83 4,87 4,765 4,665 ** (Data for the Lagging Index is one quarter behind due the lag in getting bankruptcy data)