Implied probability. WTA World Rank
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1 J&T Banka Prague Open - Prague, Tour, CZE, Clay, 27/04/2016, $250K Court Speed is fast (3.0 above tour mean) 1 Svetlana Kuznetsova Madison Brengle Monica Puig Barbora Krejcikova Samantha Stosur Marketa Vondrousova Jana Cepelova Barbora Strycova Camila Giorgi Virginie Razzano Katerina Siniakova Karolina Pliskova Ana Konjuh Su-Wei Hsieh Lucie Hradecka Lucie Safarova Clay Court Mean 62.8 Cepelova/Strycova This match should be closer than the prices suggest, I m a big fan of Barbs but she s not the strongest mentally and Cepelova is no mug on the clay, in fact she has won an ITF title on these courts in Prague back in I m going to let them have a couple of serves and look to take on Barbs around 1.30 or below. Giorgi/Razzano I m not convinced by Giorgi on the clay at all and Razzano although getting on in years is more than competent on the surface and seems to be coming back into form after injury. If I can lay Giorgi under 1.30 early in the first I will take her on.
2 Konjuh/Hsieh I like Konjuh as a player and her big serve will suit these courts but Hsieh can be a tricky customer when she puts it all together and even though I think Ana will come through in the end if we can get her close to set price in the 1 st we have a decent position for a lay to back with little risk. BMW Open - Munich, Tour, GER, Clay, 27/04/2016, 520K Court Speed is average to slow (-1.5 below tour mean) 1 Dominic Thiem Santiago Giraldo Vulnerable front runner 2 Ivan Dodig Thomaz Bellucci Cedrik-Marcel Stebe >900 N/A Victor Estrella Malek Jaziri Vulnerable front runner Alexander Zverev Vasek Pospisil lifetime main draw clay Jan-Lennard Struff last 12 months on clay 6 Juan Martin Del Potro N/A Dustin Brown Fabio Fognini Possible Shoulder Injury Maximilian Marterer Marco Cecchinato Igor Sijsling Vulnerable front runner Clay Court Mean 76.6 Not a great deal of value in Munich as we complete a lot of matches held over from yesterday due to snow, so once again I m not too keen on trading here today but this tournament will pick up once the higher ranked players get involved from tomorrow.
3 TEB BNP Paribas Istanbul Open - Istanbul, Tour, TUR, Clay, 27/04/2016, 483K Court Speed is slow-ish (- 1.9 below tour mean) 1 Federico Delbonis Dudi Sela Karen Khachanov Vulnerable front runner Albert Ramos-Vinolas Jiri Vesely Roberto Carballes Baena Vulnerable front runner 4 Adrian Ungur Vulnerable front runner Grigor Dimitrov Illya Marchenko Vulnerable front runner Max Gonzalez Clay Court Mean 76.6 All the prices look about right in Turkey, I d not be too keen to take on Gonzalez as clay courts are his thing and Marchenko hasn t the best record on the dirt but it s worth keeping an eye on.
4 Grand Prix De SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem - Rabat, Tour, MAR, Clay, 27/04/2016, $250K No Court Data 1 Timea Bacsinszky Kateryna Kozlova N/A Johanna Larsson Teliana Pereira Richel Hogenkamp Pauline Parmentier Laura Robson Timea Babos Yulia Putintseva Tatjana Maria Sara Sorribes Tormo Kiki Bertens Lesya Tsurenko Marina Erakovic Aleksandra Krunic Ekaterina Makarova Clay Court Mean 62.8 Nothing stands out price wise but there s plenty of low projected holds to get stuck into if match state dictates a play, look to oppose all red servers when leading as long as the opponent has been competitive.
5 Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril, Tour, POR, Clay, 27/04/2016, 520K Court Speed is average to fast-ish (1.00 above tour mean) 1 Benoit Paire Kyle Edmund Vulnerable front runner 2 Stephane Robert Vulnerable front runner Guillermo Garcia-Lopez Borna Coric Rogerio Dutra Da Silva Inigo Cervantes Nick Kyrgios Not played since Miami 5 Fernando Verdasco Played a final on Monday, possible fatigue Pablo Carreno-Busta Clay Court Mean 76.6 Verdasco/Carreno-Busta - Verdasco has to make a quick turnaround after taking the title in Bucharest on Monday and will be fatigued, he also may fancy a rest before the Madrid Masters starts on Monday so all in all Busta should enjoy a slight edge in this one and I ll be looking to back him at a decent price.
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