MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HOLD. Returns to the black in 3Q. Company report. (Maintained) INFRASTRUCTURE
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1 INFRASTRUCTURE MALAYSIA AIRPORTS (MAHB MK EQUITY, MAHB.KL) 28 Oct 2015 Returns to the black in 3Q Company report Thomas Soon Rationale for report: Company result HOLD (Maintained) Price Fair Value 52-week High/Low Key Changes Fair value EPS RM5.37 RM5.71 RM7.35/RM4.22 YE to Dec FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Revenue (RM mil) 3, , , ,173.3 Core net profit (RM mil) FD Core EPS (sen) FD Core EPS growth (%) (59.5) (81.0) Consensus Net Profit (RM mil) DPS (sen) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Div yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%) Stock and Financial Data Shares Outstanding (million) 1,659.2 Market Cap (RMmil) 8,909.9 Book Value (RM/share) 5.40 P/BV (x) 1.0 ROE (%) 12.4 Net Gearing (%) 60.4 Major Shareholders Khazanah Nasional Bhd (36.6%) Employees Provident Fund (13.2%) Free Float 32.5 Avg Daily Value (RMmil) 9.4 Price performance 3mth 6mth 12mth Absolute (%) (11.4) (19.7) (23.4) Relative (%) (10.7) (12.0) (17.7) Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 MAHB MK PP 12247/06/2013 (032380) FBMKLCI Index 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Investment Highlights We maintain HOLD on Malaysia Airports (MAHB) with a lower fair value of RM5.71/share (from RM6.50/share previously), based on 25% discount to our SOP value. MAHB posted a 3QFY15 core net profit of RM37mil, leading to a narrowing of losses to RM11mil for 9MFY15. We maintain our full-year core net profit projection of RM39mil, vs. consensus RM79mil. The core loss for 9MFY15 included a gain on investment of RM82mil and a forex gain of RM63.5mil due to the translation gain on the settlement of an earlier EUR279mil bridge loan. No additional interim dividend was declared. It had earlier declared an interim dividend of 4 sen/share for FY15. With an unadjusted EBITDA of RM1,292mil for 9MFY15, the group has achieved 86% of its full-year target of RM1.5bil. MAHB s performance has largely been impacted by rising costs stemming from the opening of KLIA2, due to higher opex, depreciation and financing charges. MAHB handled a total of 29.7mil passengers in 3Q15, a 10.5% YoY growth domestic movements rose 13.7% while international movements increased by 6.8%. In contrast, 1Q15 and 2Q15 s growth registered at -1.2% and +1.2%, respectively. For 9M15, the group achieved total passenger movement growth of 5.9%. MAHB expects passenger growth of 3% for its Malaysian airports, and 15% for Turkey. Among the airlines, British Airways returned to KLIA in May and All Nippon Airways in September. MAHB expects Air China and Hainan Airlines to resume flights to KLIA in 4Q15. Meanwhile, its Turkey activities continued to register a positive quarterly operating profit, with a PBT of RM38mil, but a loss of RM52mil was posted due to the amortisation of fair value of concession rights. As at 30 Sept, 2015, foreign shareholding in MAHB stood at 19.02%, up from 18.91% as at end MAHB remains committed to paying 50% of its net profit, adjusted for non-cash items. We maintain our numbers and HOLD call, as the group settles down to new realities with existing operations at KLIA2 and Turkey, as well as pending news of any hikes in PSC charges.
2 EXHIBIT 1: RESULT SUMMARY YE 31 Dec (RM mil) 9M14 9M15 % YOY 3Q14 2Q15 3Q15 % QoQ % YOY Ann Turnover 2, , , ,778.8 EBITDA , ,488.1 Depreciation (337.5) (633.5) 87.7 (137.0) (207.4) (220.8) (844.7) EBIT Interest expense (98.6) (505.1) (54.5) (152.9) (192.3) (673.5) Interest income Pre-Associates profit Impairment of investment in associate (9.0) JV/Associates (51.5) Pre-Exceptionals profit Exceptionals (28.5) (3.2) 31.7 Pre-tax profit (34.3) , Taxation (66.2) (19.4) (9.0) (21.8) 9.7 (Loss)/profit from discontinued ops. (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) Minority interest (0.2) 0.0 Net Profit (5.7) 1.6 (20.3) 68.5 (436.8) 4, Core Net Profit 85.6 (11.2) (113.0) 30.1 (17.2) 36.8 (314.5) 22.2 (14.9) EPS (sen) (3.2) 1.6 BV/Share (RM) EBIT margin (%) Pretax margin (%) Effective tax (%) ,299.2 (16.5) Source: Company, AmResearch AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2
3 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Malaysia Airports 28 Oct 2015 EXHIBIT 2: PB BAND CHART EXHIBIT 3: PE BAND CHART δ Avg -1δ δ Avg Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15-1δ AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3
4 EXHIBIT 4: FINANCIAL DATA Income Statement (RMmil, YE 31 Dec) FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Revenue 4, , , , ,173.3 EBITDA , , ,670.9 Depreciation/Amortisation (277.9) (405.4) (861.2) (866.5) (871.8) Operating income (EBIT) Other income & associates (40.1) (76.6) (15.0) (10.0) (10.0) Net interest (12.0) (135.4) (611.5) (595.1) (578.4) Exceptional items Pretax profit Taxation (175.5) (85.6) (70.7) (56.5) (73.7) Minorities/pref dividends (0.1) Net profit Core net profit Balance Sheet (RMmil, YE 31 Dec) FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Fixed assets Intangible assets 8, , , , ,899.6 Other long-term assets , , , ,313.7 Total non-current assets 9, , , , ,656.0 Cash & equivalent , , ,086.2 Stock Trade debtors Other current assets Total current assets 1, , , , ,981.9 Trade creditors , , , ,371.2 Short-term borrowings Other current liabilities Total current liabilities 1, , , , ,403.0 Long-term borrowings 3, , , , ,821.2 Other long-term liabilities , , , ,994.4 Total long-term liabilities 4, , , , ,815.6 Shareholders funds 4, , , , ,419.0 Minority interests BV/share (RM) Cash Flow (RMmil, YE 31 Dec) FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Pretax profit Depreciation/Amortisation Net change in working capital ,880.3 (1,729.5) Others (101.1) (2,548.7) Cash flow from operations (110.5) 1, ,645.6 Capital expenditure (2,379.3) (792.5) (83.7) (83.7) (83.7) Net investments & sale of fixed assets Others Cash flow from investing (1,940.0) (730.6) (75.0) (58.7) (42.0) Debt raised/(repaid) ,537.7 (705.7) - - Equity raised/(repaid) Dividends paid (53.0) (106.4) (96.2) (131.9) (148.4) Others (40.3) (1,548.5) (620.1) (620.1) (620.1) Cash flow from financing ,854.7 (1,422.1) (752.1) (768.6) Net cash flow (429.2) 1,695.3 (1,607.6) Net cash/(debt) b/f , ,251.2 Net cash/(debt) c/f , , ,086.2 Key Ratios (YE 31 Dec) FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F FY17F Revenue growth (%) 15.5 (18.4) EBITDA growth (%) (3.1) (1.1) Pretax margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Interest cover (x) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Debtors turnover (days) Stock turnover (days) Creditors turnover (days) Source: Company, AmResearch estimates AmResearch Sdn Bhd 4
5 Published by AmResearch Sdn Bhd ( P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 1 5 t h F l o o r B a n g u n a n A m B a n k G r o u p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 0 3 ) ( r e s e a r c h ) F a x : ( 0 3 ) Printed by AmResearch Sdn Bhd ( P) (A member of the AmInvestment Bank Group) 1 5 t h F l o o r B a n g u n a n A m B a n k G r o u p 55 Jalan Raja Chulan Kuala Lumpur Tel: ( 0 3 ) ( r e s e a r c h ) F a x : ( 0 3 ) The information and opinions in this report were prepared by AmResearch Sdn Bhd. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report has been prepared for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. The directors and employees of AmResearch Sdn Bhd may from time to time have a position in or with the securities mentioned herein. Members of the AmInvestment Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein. The information herein was obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that stated facts are accurate and opinions fair and reasonable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. No liability can be accepted for any loss that may arise from the use of this report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice. For AmResearch Sdn Bhd Benny Chew Managing Director AmResearch Sdn Bhd 5
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