Nordex SE Investor Presentation. Status: January 2016

Transcription

1 Nordex SE Investor Presentation Status: January 2016

2 AGENDA 1. Intro and corporate strategy 2. Markets and market success 3. Products and R&D 4. Financials 9M 2015 and Guidance AWP merger transaction rationale and integration 6. Appendix (shareholder structure; financial calendar) 2

3 1. COMPANY PROFILE NORDEX SE PIONEER IN WIND WITH 30 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE Nordex at a glance Installed capacity (>12 GW) Global manufacturer of wind energy systems with a focus on turbines in the 2-3 MW class Most extensive and consistent use of platform technology in the industry; variants for different wind and climate conditions leveraging shared components Production sites in Germany (Rostock blades and nacelles) Headquartered in Germany (Hamburg); subsidiaries in more than 20 other countries Business combination agreement signed with Acciona Windpower to combine WTG business Asia 8% Other Europe 60% Small (<1.0 MW) 6% America 7% By region Africa 2% Germany 23% Listed company in the German TecDax Current main shareholder Skion/momentum (22.8%), rest is freefloat Revenues 2014: EUR 1.74 bn >3,000 employees Mainstream (1.3/1.5 MW) 20% By segment MMW Class ( MW) 74% Track record as of H1/2015: >6,600 turbines and >12,000 MW in 41 countries worldwide 3

4 1. MERGER WITH ACCIONA WINDPOWER (AWP) AT A GLANCE Business Combination Agreement (BCA) signed on October 4, 2015 Acquisition of Acciona Windpower to form a global player Transaction volume of EUR 785 mn Acciona S.A. to become strategic shareholder with a stake of 29.9% Merger control process initiated in the US, EU, RSA, TR and PK deal closure expected in Q Main medium-term financial targets of the combined company 2018: Sales EUR bn EBITDA margin >10% 4

5 1. NORDEX AND ACCIONA WINDPOWER FORMING A MAJOR PLAYER IN WIND Significant size from day 1 ambitious medium-term targets 2015E Pro forma KPIs TARGET Order intake EUR bn* EUR bn Sales EBIT margin Track record EUR bn* 5-6% >12 GW EUR 1.0 bn 6-7% >6 GW Establish Nordex and Acciona Windpower as a global TOP 5 OEM with EUR >4 bn in sales Employees ~3,000 ~1,400 *incl. guidance update Q

6 1. NORDEX AND AWP TO FORM A GLOBAL PLAYER BY GOING FOR SCALE AND LEVERAGING EXISTING FOCUS AREAS Initial situation Leverage strategic focus areas and reduce risks Perfect match with AWP Market environment changing quickly and favouring scale players Nordex + AWP will become a global player with EUR bn in revenue target in 2018 Integration of AWP High-value products Project-driven company We grew faster than expected, 2017 sales targets achieved early Profitable growth 6

7 AGENDA 1. Intro and corporate strategy 2. Markets and market success 3. Products and R&D 4. Financials 9M 2015 and Guidance AWP merger transaction rationale and integration 6. Appendix (shareholder structure; financial calendar) 7

8 2. WHY INVEST IN THE SEGMENT? WHY INVEST IN NORDEX? Wind industry Nordex Environmental drivers: Renewable energy targets, obligations or carbon emission reduction targets in >100 countries Programs to support wind in >70 countries Tailwind from COP 21/Paris agreement Economical drivers: Cost competitiveness against conventional generation technology Ongoing LCoE reductions to reach grid-parity in all wind classes to become subsidy free Energy-related drivers: Fast to grid lead time of nine months from signing to production Diversification of generation portfolio Independence from commodity and electricity imports Pioneer in the industry with 30 years of experience Track record of >12 GW installed capacity respectively >6,000 WTGs in >40 countries Global reach with strong foothold in mature markets in Europe (Nx) and emerging markets in LatAm (AWP) Growth story based on LCoE improvements following a successful turnaround story >EUR 4.2 bn and sales and >10% EBITDA margin targeted for 2018 to become a TOP 5 player in onshore wind 8

9 2. FOCUSED SALES APPROACH LEAD TO DOUBLE DIGIT MARKET SHARES IN MANY FOCUS MARKETS Currently focused on ~20 countries onshore market position 2014 UK Market share 2014: 10% Order intake: +58% Ireland Market share 2014: 47% Sweden Market share 2014: 10% Finland Market share 2014: 40% Order intake: +52% Germany Market share 2014: 9% Order intake:+ 28% Pakistan Market share 2014: 66% France Market share 2014: 10% Order intake: +200% China Sourcing only Turkey Market share 2014: 20% Order intake: +67% Chile Subsidiary established Nordex Uruguay Market share 2014: 14% Major order of 142 MW received South Africa Market share 2014: 20% Qualified for 111 MW round 3 EUROPE Nx Market share 2014: 10% 10% 10% GLOBAL Nx Market share 2014: 3% AWP 9

10 2. STRONG ORDER INTAKE MOMENTUM Order intake 9M/15 vs. 9M/14 (in EUR mn) Order intake by countries/regions 9M/15 +57% 1,964 Americas 13% Germany 1,253 EMEA other* 12% GER 43% South Africa 9% 8% France 15% 9m m 2015 Turkey *incl. Pakistan Order intake of almost EUR 2 bn Generation Delta accounts for more than 20% of new orders; N117/2400 remains bestselling WTG with 40% of new orders from six countries One third of OI stems from emerging markets such as South Africa, Uruguay and Pakistan 10

11 2. ORDER BOOK ON A RECORD LEVEL BOOK-TO-BILL- RATIO INDICATING FURTHER GROWTH Development of the firm order book* M 2015 (in EUR mn) +23% +16% Book-tobill ratio* FY 2013 FY m 2015 EMEA (including Pakistan) currently accounts for 88% of the firm order book, the Americas stand at 12% Book-to-bill ratio* of 1.19 indicating further growth Conditional order back-log at EUR 562 mn (9M 2014: EUR 935 mn; -40% after high conversion rate and signing of large projects in RSA, UY, PK) * Turbine business, excluding service 11

12 2. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SUCCESS IN CORE MARKETS - FRANCE AND GERMANY IN H Installations France H1 2015: 524 MW onshore Installations Germany H1 2015: ~1,200 MW onshore OEM 5 OEM 4 6% 6% OEM 3 16% 28% Nordex 12% Nordex OEM 2 18% 26% OEM 1 Others (not disclosed) 88% French market picking up on the way back to a solid GW market Market leadership with 28 % in H (based on grid-connections; FY 2015: 9.1%) Strong development pipeline Sources: FEE, VDMA Gains in market share: 11.8 % (H1 2014: 8.1%; FY 2014: 8.4 %) German market intact for ; EEG amendment and details on tender regime expected for late summer Current focus on selling N131/3000 and updated version N131/

13 4. DEMAND OUTLOOK PER REGION New capacity (in GW) +2% EMEA Americas APAC e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e Source: MAKE Q3 outlook as of 9/ /2016: Global onshore growth of ~17 % expected in Clean energy spending still at a high level 2017 dip mainly caused by decrease in CN and the US; upside potential if ITC/PTC program will be prolonged for more than one year Through 2020: Germany: continues on a high level (~3 GW p.a.) after 2017 Northern Europe: Nordex core markets provide stable foundation - gains in market share targeted in various focus markets Southern Europe: High demand for volume in Turkey and France Emerging Markets: Ongoing growth opportunities in Africa (RSA, Egypt), Latin America (URU, Chile) and APAC (PAK etc.) 13

14 AGENDA 1. Intro and corporate strategy 2. Markets and market success 3. Products and R&D 4. Financials 9M 2015 and Guidance AWP merger transaction rationale and integration 6. Appendix (shareholder structure; financial calendar) 14

15 3. HIGHLY COMPETITIVE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO FOR ALL ONSHORE WIND CLASSES Rotordiameter 131 m N131/3000* 117 m N117/2400 N117/ m N100/2500 N100/ m *Introduction of N131/3300 (for German market) on HUSUM Wind fair N90/2500 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5 10,0 Wind speed [m/s] IEC 3a IEC 2a IEC 1a 15

16 3. STATUS OF THE NEWEST TURBINES N131/3000 AND N131/3300 Update Installation of first turbines (WTG) completed >50 WTGs already booked as firm order for projects in Germany and Finland Successful completion of IEC design evaluation conformity statements (DECS) and DIBt type approvals Awarded Windpower Monthly s Turbine of the Year Award in 3MW+ segment Myllykangas II Kooninkallio- Kankaanpää Further optimisation for the German market launched and first WTG N131/3300 installed Janneby Wettringen I & II Hollich Sellen 16

17 3. SERVICE MAJOR DRIVER OF MARGINS Service products Basic: Service, maintenance, 24-hour remote monitoring Extended: Basic + availability guarantee Premium light: Extended + repair and replacement of selected components Premium: Premium light + repairs and replacement of all main components Contract durations variable between 5 15 years Concepts for modernisation Key figures Global system availabilty (As of 09/2015): ~98 % WTGs under contract (As of 11/2015): 3,950 or 8.8 GW Service sales (2014): EUR 166 mn Planned sales increase: 15% p.a. 17

18 AGENDA 1. Intro and corporate strategy 2. Markets and market success 3. Products and R&D 4. Financials 9M 2015 and Guidance AWP merger transaction rationale and integration 6. Appendix (shareholder structure; financial calendar) 18

19 4. HIGHLIGHTS 9M 2015 Overview Q3 Business well on track Book-to-bill-ratio of 1.2 indicating further growth Strong sales and strong order intake EBIT margin in line with forecast Positive free cash flow Increase in sales and order intake guidance Signing of Acciona Windpower acquisition Merger clearance on track notification finalized in five jurisdictions (EU, US, RSA, TR, PK) 19

20 4. SOLID BUSINESS PERFORMANCE ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN Production Installations - Service Turbine assembly: 1,539 MW (+43% yoy) assembly of turbines for installations in Q4 Blade production: 261 blades (-33% yoy) lagging behind budget due to delays related to the expansion of facility in Rostock and ramp-up of NR 65.5 Installations: 1,158 MW (+8% yoy) large installations scheduled for Q4 448 turbines installed in 13 countries main markets Germany, Turkey, Finland and France Service sales: EUR mn (+17% yoy) Renewal rate: 95% (-3 ppt) 20

21 4. GROUP INCOME STATEMENT 9M 2015 In EUR millions 9M M 2014 in % Sales 1, , Total revenues 1, , Cost of materials (1,389.0) (1,008.2) 37.8 Gross profit Personnel costs (143.4) (124.0) 15.6 Other operating (expenses)/income (99.4) (66.9) 48.6 EBITDA Depreciation (40.5) (29.7) 36.4 EBIT Net financial result (15.2) (17.8) (14.6) EBT Tax (37.1) (14.2) >100 Net profit Sales increase reflects strong orders in previous quarters and increased production volume Net profit increased by 62 % especially due to lower structural cost ratio; higher tax rate in Q3 results from the fact that potential future tax benefits of Nx entities could not yet been realized 9M EBIT margin of 5.5 % well in the target range; EBIT margin in Q3 at 5.3 % due to quality issues with supplied blades root cause identified, quality initiative started 21

22 4. GROUP BALANCE SHEET 9M 2015 In EUR millions Liquid funds & fixed-term deposits Trade receivables and future receivables Trade payables Current bank borrowings, esp. Bond Net inventories Other current liabilities Other current assets Current Assets 1, Current liabilities Property, plant, equipment Bond Capitalized R&D expenses Deferred tax liabilities Deferred tax assets Other non-current liabilities Other non-current assets Non-current assets Non-current liabilities Shareholders equity Total assets 1, ,239.9 Total liabilities 1, ,239.9 Balance sheet strengthened: Net liquidity increased to EUR 250 mn ( : 232 mn) Current bank borrowings include bond (maturity in 4/2016), first tranche of EIB loan drawn Total assets up 19 % to EUR 1.5bn; equity ratio 30.3 % ( : 31.9 %) 1 Bond incl. interest 22

23 4. WORKING CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT Development of working capital FY M ,2 1,0 1, FY M ,4 H ,4 9M ,3 FY M ,8 H ,1 9M W/C (EUR mn) W/C ratio Working capital ratio well within target range (<5 %) Volatility reflects production and installation activity Continuing stringent working capital management with: Optimised turnaround and order times Prepayments and cash flow-optimized milestone payments 23

24 4. OPERATING CASH FLOW AND FREE CASH FLOW Key figures cash flow statement Changes in working capital in EUR mn Cash flow from operating activities Cash flow from investing activities 9M M (48.8) (43.0) Free cash flow in EUR mn 9M M 2014 Consolidated profit + d/a Decrease in inventories /+ Change in trade receivables Increase in trade payables Decrease in prepayments received (non-capitalised) = Payments from changes in working capital Decreased operating cash flow because of higher production/installation activities leading to increased working capital (especially in terms of trade receivables) Investing activities in 9M 2015 mainly for: capitalized product development expansion of the blade center in Rostock project almost completed 24

25 4. GUIDANCE A 2015 old (H2) 2015 update (9M) Order intake EUR 1.75 bn EUR bn EUR bn Sales EUR 1.73 bn EUR bn EUR bn EBIT margin 4.5 % 5 6 % 5 6 % Working capital ratio % <5 % <5 % Investment EUR 76.3 mn ~EUR mn ~EUR mn Guidance update based on strong order intake momentum High installation volume for Q4 expected Additional investments driven by high activity level (e.g. project management, logistics, tools) 25

26 AGENDA 1. Intro and corporate strategy 2. Markets and market success 3. Products and R&D 4. Financials 9M 2015 and Guidance AWP merger transaction rationale and integration 6. Appendix (shareholder structure; financial calendar) 26

27 5. STRONG STRATEGIC FIT AS KEY DEAL DRIVER Combining AWP and NX reduces market risks while creating big global player 1 Risk reduction: complementary markets and customer base, global production footprint 2 Broadened product portfolio, complementary technology assets 3 Combined entity backed by Acciona as strategic shareholder and potential key customer 4 Increased shareholder value: Synergies worth EUR 95m as of 2019 driving profitability at eye level with industry leaders 5 Global player with reduced risk and targeted EUR bn in sales in 2018 top 5 position in reach 27

28 5. RISK REDUCTION: COMPLEMENTARY MARKETS AND CUSTOMER BASE Global reach: More balanced geographic market presence Nordex Together: NX and AWP focus regions/countries highly complementary AWP FOCUS ON EUROPE >80% of business Current EMEA core markets e.g. DE, FR, TR, UK, FI, RSA FOCUS ON LATAM & EMERGING MARKETS >70% of business Current core markets MEX, BRA, USA; IND emerging Total addressable market >80% (excl. China) 28

29 5. COMBINED COMPANY WILL ADDRESS FULL RANGE OF CUSTOMER SEGMENTS Complementary customer bases Nordex Together: Full range of customer segments AWP SMALL & MID-SIZED CUSTOMERS Nordex Small cust. Reg. Utilities, Financial IPP AWP BIG DEVELOPER & IPP (incl. Acciona Developer Energia) Typical deal: Big Utilities & IPP Typical deal: MW 100MW Extra benefit: Strategic alliance with Acciona Energia and its vast project pipeline 29

30 5. GLOBAL, FLEXIBLE PRODUCTION FOOTPRINT, ABLE TO FULFILL LOCAL PRODUCTION NEEDS Global footprint* GER Active Nacelle Blade US (Iowa) Mothballed Nacelle ES Active Nacelle Blade IND Planned Nacelle CN Mothballed Nacelle Blade BRA Active Nacelle N: Nacelle Manufacturing Manufacturing Site B: Blade Manufacturing *tower design with on-site manufacturing not displayed Good geographic fit for production purposes 30

31 5. BROADENED PRODUCT PORTFOLIO, COMPLEMENTARY TECHNOLOGY ASSETS Complementary product focus Nordex Together: Winning in very different markets AWP Dealing with RESTRICTIONS & LAND CONSTRAINTS Focus: Sophisticated WTG solutions Typical project: Noise restricted sites Projects with NO LAND CONSTRAINTS Focus: Low capex WTG solution Typical project: 100 MW in emerging markets Solutions to serve customer need around the globe 31

32 5. BROADENED PRODUCT PORTFOLIO, COMPLEMENTARY TECHNOLOGY ASSETS Combining valuable experience in blade design and tower manufacturing Nordex Together: Broad technology portfolio AWP BLADE TECHNOLOGY Carbon fibre Low noise level incl. Anti-Icing System (AIS) CONCRETE TOWER design with on-site manufacturing ( tower camp factories ) Technology assets in blades and towers as key levers for LCOE reduction 32

33 5. SALES POTENTIAL OF UP TO EUR 4.5BN IN 2018 BASED ON MARKET POSITIONING AND COMPETITIVE PRODUCTS Targeted sales development until 2018 (in EUR bn) ~10% p.a Targeted sales increase to EUR bn sales mainly from strong position in emerging/growth markets and competitive products meeting broad customer needs 1.7 Growth of ~10% p.a. above industry average (4-5 % incl. CN) Combined order backlog of ~EUR 2.5 bn and sales pipeline ensures e Nordex stand alone 2016e 2017e Combined entity 2018e short-term visibility Balanced market presence provides risk mitigation against volume shocks 33

34 5. EMERGING MARKETS AND JOINT PRODUCT PORTFOLIO WILL BE THE MAIN GROWTH DRIVERS Overview growth drivers (in EUR bn) Expected sales volume of AWP 2015: EUR 1 bn 1.0 Mx BRA IN RSA Growth stemming from emerging markets, esp. India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa New markets in LatAm, APAC and MEA addressable with a joint product portfolio Growth markets and new markets to over-compensate stagnating/decreasing markets Nx 2015e AWP 2015e Emerging markets New markets Total 2018 (targeted) e.g. UK 34

35 5. TARGETED EBITDA LEVEL OF >10 % AT EYE LEVEL WITH INDUSTRY LEADERS Targeted EBITDA development until 2018 (in % of revenues) >2-3%pts >10% Targeted profitability increase by >2%pts driven mainly by 7% 7 8% synergies, LCOE improvement and over-proportional growth of highmargin service business Targeted Synergies will kick in on a medium-term perspective during the integration process Targeted profitability 2018 on par with industry leaders e Nordex stand alone 2016e 2017e Combined entity 2018e Change of guided KPI from EBIT to EBITDA due to purchase price allocation (PPA) of the AWP merger 35

36 5. STRONG FOCUS ON LCOE REDUCTION AND SYNERGIES IN COMBINED BUSINESS ARE KEY PROFITABILITY DRIVERS Targeted EBITDA bridge (in %) >10% Two lean companies merging, no further scale effect to be expected 7-8% Transition phase will cause onetime expenses Changing market conditions (e.g. auction systems) and strong competition will cause price pressure Stringent LCOE program to at least compensate pressure Over proportional service business growth 2015 Price decrease LCoE up Synergies Service 2018 Synergies of EUR 95 mn targeted - 60 % to be realized in

37 5. GLOBAL PLAYER WITH REDUCED RISK AND TARGETED EUR BN IN SALES IN 2018 TOP 5 POSITION IN REACH Total onshore market 2019 simulation* Estimated onshore volume: ~50 GW Mid term combined market share onshore c.8% (on+offshore c.7%) Other Pure Player 15% Big Industrial 12% 10% Chinese Player Much more balanced regional sales split compared to standalone positions. Cumulated sales target split : 5% Chinese Player 7% 7% Big Industrial Pure Player 8% 10% Pure Player Nordex+AWP EMEA 60% APAC 6% 30% Americas 4% * OEM market share development illustrative New markets 37

38 CFO 5. ENHANCEMENT OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE Two-tier SE ( Vorstand and Aufsichtsrat ) CEO SKion Management Board CSO Supervisory Board COO Executive Committee CEO Lars Bondo Krogsgaard COO Deputy CEO José Luis Blanco CFO Bernard Schäferbarthold CSO Patxi Landa (independent) members Acciona group represented with two members Management board with around 50 years of experience in the wind industry 38

39 5. COMBINED ENTITY BACKED BY ACCIONA AS STRATEGIC SHAREHOLDER AND POTENTIAL KEY CUSTOMER Acciona Energia as a strategic anchor shareholder as a potential key customer INSTALLED REN. ENERGY (MW) 64.4% Freefloat 29.9% 5.7% Acciona SKion/ momentum Other Wind >8.6 GW >7.2 GW 2015 YTD Acciona Energia is one of the leading renewable energy asset owners (mainly onshore wind) in the world Significant investment volume for renewables expected (USD 2.5 bn 2016ff.) Nordex will leverage Acciona s deep expertise in the full value chain of the wind industry 39

40 AGENDA 1. Intro and corporate strategy 2. Markets and market success 3. Products and R&D 4. Financials 9M 2015 and Guidance AWP merger transaction rationale and integration 6. Appendix (shareholder structure; financial calendar) 40

41 6. APPENDIX: SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE NORDEX SE SKion/momentum capital % Free float 64.44% JPMorgan 5.85 % Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 4.92 % Based on shares, as of December, 2015; before closure of AWP merger 41

42 6. APPENDIX: FINANCIAL CALENDAR 2016 (STATUS DECEMBER 2015) Date Event 7-8 January Investor Conference Lyon (Oddo) 19 January Investor Conference Frankfurt (Frankfurt) 2 February Investor Conference Frankfurt (HSBC) 16 February Investor Conference Frankfurt (Oddo Seydler) 26 February Preliminary Results March Press Conference Annual Accounts May Interim Results Q May Annual General Meeting in Rostock (AGM) 8-10 June Investor Conference Berlin (Deutsche Bank) 28 July Interim Results H August Investor Conference Frankfurt (Commerzbank) September Investor Conference Munich (Goldman Sachs & Berenberg) 8 November Investor Conference Paris (SocGen) 10 November Interim Results Q

43 DISCLAIMER This presentation was produced in December 2015 by Nordex SE solely for use as a source of general information regarding the economic circumstances and status of Nordex SE. It does not constitute an offer for the sale of securities or an invitation to buy or otherwise acquire securities in the Federal Republic of Germany or any other jurisdiction. In particular it is not intended to be an offer, an investment recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to anyone in the U.S., Canada, Japan and Australia or any other jurisdiction. This presentation is confidential. Any reproduction or distribution of this presentation, in whole or in part, without Nordex SE s prior written consent is expressly prohibited. This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of Nordex SE and/or the industry in which Nordex SE operates, these statements are generally identified by using phrases such aim, anticipate, believe, estimate, expect, forecast, guidance, intend, objective, plan, predict, project, and will be and similar expressions. Although we believe the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reliable assumptions, they are prepared as up-to-date and are subject to revision in the future. We undertake no responsibility to update any forwardlooking statement. There is no assurance that our expectations will be attained or that any deviations may not be material. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made in, or referenced by, this presentation will prove to be accurate. 43

44 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. Nordex SE Oliver Kayser Rolf Becker Senior Manager Investor Relations Junior Manager Investor Relations Langenhorner Chaussee 600, Hamburg, Germany Phone: +49 (0) Fax: +49 (0) NDX1 ISIN: WKN: DE000A0D6554 A0D