Application of foresight in corporations

Transcription

1 Application of foresight in corporations 12th Session of the UNIDO General Conference EUR and NIS Regional Round Table Vienna, 5 December 2007 Dr. Frank Ruff Daimler AG Society and Technology Research Group Berlin, Palo Alto, Kyoto

2 Agenda A Why Corporate Foresight? B A closer look at Corporate Foresight C Implications for UNIDO D Q & A, Discussion UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 2

3 Why Corporate Foresight? History of Future Studies/Foresight Premodern future view Delphic oracle Spiritual and religious foresight Outsider (e.g. Nostredamus) Modern Age Medieval Age Antiquity Emergence of systematic resp. scientific future studies First Think Tanks in enterprises (e.g. Shell, Toyota, Daimler-Benz) Warning future studies Doom-Saying (e.g. Club of Rome, Robert Jungk) Foresight embedded in enterprises Economic and political future studies (e.g. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, Dan Coates, PROGNOS) Innovation and Technology Analysis (e.g. Daimler-Benz, Siemens, Philips) Consumer and marketing-oriented trend research (e.g. Faith Popcorn, Trendbüro, Matthias Horx) Corporate Foresight: Establishment of new variants and diffusion of concepts of future studies and analysis Journalists/Entrepreneurs/Expert-Networks/Consulting State-run/scientific/supranational institutions Military futurologic research (e.g. RAND Corporation, Technology assessment Science and Technology Forecasting (e.g. Delphi Economic, political, resource-oriented future research (e.g. UN MIT) studies,offices for technology Millenium Project, assessment) OECD, political Think Tanks) Future Consulting (e.g. Z_Punkt) Foresight (e.g. EU projects, Regional Foresight FUTUR Dialogue) Dr. Frank Ruff, DaimlerChrysler AG, Society and Technology Research Group UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 3

4 Why Corporate Foresight? Drivers and consequences Drivers Enhanced focus on technology and/or business innovation Higher stakes (risks/opportunities) Consequences Technology roadmapping Integrated market and technology foresight UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 4

5 Why Corporate Foresight? Knowledge about the future and the reach of decisions Strength of influence Opportunity/potential to influence the future Activity profile of top management Research Development Testing Series production UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 5

6 Why Corporate Foresight? Promoting a Push-Pull-Balance Imbalance? Market Pull Technology Push Technologically driven innovations Customer needs Foresight-based look at market developments UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 6

7 Why Corporate Foresight? Drivers and consequences Drivers Enhanced focus on technology and/or business innovation Higher stakes (risks/opportunities) Increasing knowledge and research intensity of value creation in many branches Consequences Technology roadmapping Integrated market and technology foresight Contextual and wholistic (360 0) ) thinking Multidisciplinary, integrated knowledge bases UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 7

8 Why Corporate Foresight? Contextual and holistic thinking UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 8

9 Why Corporate Foresight? Drivers and consequences Drivers Enhanced focus on technology and/or business innovation Higher stakes (risks/opportunities) Increasing knowledge and research intensity of value creation in many branches Recognition of the limitations of conventional strategic functions (e.g. corporate/business strategy, product and marketing strategy) Consequences Technology roadmapping Integrated market and technology foresight Contextual and wholistic (360 0) ) thinking Multidisciplinary, integrated knowledge bases Functional complementarity: inside-out -> outside-in business focus -> boundary focus UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 9

10 Why Corporate Foresight? Functional complementarity For instance: Society and Technology Research Group of DaimlerChrysler (STRG) The relationship between the company and the external environment determines the future of the company. Unit Daimler STRG Markets Market Sales Environment Procurement Human Resources Capital Society Economy Politics Technology Ecology Guiding Principles environment orientation: thinking from the outside in Early detection: long-term and mid-term perspective New perspectives: focussing topics that are not yet common sense in the company Integration in innovation and strategy processes: deriving implications for business by contextual understanding of continuities and discontinuities UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 10

11 Why Corporate Foresight? Drivers and consequences Drivers Enhanced focus on technology and/or business innovation Higher stakes (risks/opportunities) Increasing knowledge and research intensity of value creation in many branches Recognition of the limitations of conventional strategic functions (e.g. corporate/business strategy, product and marketing strategy) Consequences Technology roadmapping Integrated market and technology foresight Contextual and wholistic (360 0) ) thinking Multidisciplinary, integrated knowledge bases Functional complementarity: inside-out -> outside-in business focus -> boundary focus Diffusion of future oriented thinking in society and individual life planning Future consciousness Proactive planning UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 11

12 Why Corporate Foresight? Diffusion of future-oriented thinking in society UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 12

13 Agenda A Why Corporate Foresight? B A closer look at Corporate Foresight C Implications for UNIDO D Q & A, Discussion UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 13

14 A closer look at Corporate Foresight Diversity of types, institutional arrangements in change Public sphere Unit 1 Examples: diversity prevails Public sphere Unit 1 Unit x Board Headquarters Unit 2 Board Headquarters Unit 2 R & D Unit X Research-based think tank multiple internal foci of impact Organisational position of foresight unit Public sphere Unit Board Headquarters R & D Research institute external focus of impact Corporate think-tank internal and external focus of impact UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 14

15 A closer look at Corporate Foresight Diversity of types, institutional arrangements in change Single project on demand, supported by external foresight experts/consultants Permanent unit/task force within company (a few, e.g. Daimler, Siemens, Deutsche Bank) Application of foresight in companies More variants... Shared activity of several companies in a sector (precompetitive) or in a cluster (collaborative value chain) Periodical projects, temporary task force on demand within company (many big companies...) UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 15

16 A closer look at Corporate Foresight Diversity of types, institutional arrangements in change Organisational embedding Part of cross-business-unit RD (e.g. Daimler, Siemens) Part of product design (e.g. Philips) Staff unit to BOM (e.g. DBResearch) Subsidiary research institute (e.g. BMW Ifmo) Main clients Product development and M & S units Innovation management Corporate Strategy/BOM... Product designers units Board of management... Board of Management Units Public stakeholders... Public stakeholders Corporate Communications... + many more, including temporary projects UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 16

17 A closer look at Corporate Foresight Diversity of types, institutional arrangements in change Public sphere Unit 1 Examples: diversity prevails Public sphere Unit 1 Unit x Board Headquarters Unit 2 Board Headquarters Unit 2 R & D Unit X Research-based think tank multiple internal foci of impact Organisational position of foresight unit Public sphere Unit Board Headquarters R & D Research institute external focus of impact Corporate think-tank internal and external focus of impact UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 17

18 A closer look at Corporate Foresight Many families of methods are available Scenarios Advanced marketing research Uncertainty Uncertainty- Impact- Analysis Modelling/ Simulation Methods Media analysis Projection Prediction Expert panels Trend Research Strategy Driver/lever Analysis SWOT- Analysis And many more... UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 18

19 A closer look at Corporate Foresight Connection to decision-making: major types Foresight-based vision building (e.g. new business, diversification) Decision preparation Extension of knowledge-base and issues addressed in corporate, business, product or marketing strategies Foresight-based knowledge used in innovation processes Foresight-based market environment assessment Enrichment of knowledge base in strategies Impact on scope of innovation ideas and their prioritisation Impact on decisions related to market preparation, entry, positioning UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 19

20 Agenda A Why Corporate Foresight? B A closer look at Corporate Foresight C Implications for UNIDO D Q & A, Discussion UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 20

21 Corporate Foresight Conclusions and implications for UNIDO Foresight and future-oriented projects (beyond conventional strategic planning) have developed from a nice to have -status to a we commit to -status in more than a few multinational companies. Apparently Europe, the U.S. and Japan have a mature and diversified track record of Corporate Foresight. But: the global situation is opaque and changing, because foresight is a fuzzy field and corporate activities are mostly not public. With profit-oriented thinking catching nearly every corporate activity, the most important barrier to introducing Corporate Foresight still is the intangibility of economic advantages drawn from foresight activities (we did not yet find a solution for calculating ex ante the later economic benefits of foresight activities). Big multinational companies usually have the resources to set up an embedded foresight unit or to contract external foresight consultants. UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 21

22 Corporate Foresight Conclusions and implications for UNIDO Small and medium-sized companies might benefit strongly from foresight programs, trainings, initiatives etc. supported by national, regional and trans-regional programs (e.g. UNIDO programs, EU programs). Education, training and consulting is necessary to enable newcomers to conduct foresight-related projects on their own, but possibly not sufficient to get extended and continuous activities going. Training and consulting should be quickly followed by foresight projects connected to pressing and serious business challenges in industrial sectors, clusters of companies or single companies. Instead of setting up intricate evaluation and controlling schemes for foresight projects client satisfaction and demand for more should be lead principles in evaluation. UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 22

23 Discussion We should all be concerned about the future, as we will be spending the rest of our lives there Charles Kettering, inventor Thank you for your attention! Questions and discussion? UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 23