Investing in Innovation and Technology. November 6, 2008 SPIE Conference, San Francisco, Ca.

Transcription

1 Investing in Innovation and Technology November 6, 2008 SPIE Conference, San Francisco, Ca.

2 Overview Who is Hudson? The PV technology maturation cycle from concept through high volume commercial production Description of sources of capital and requirements for each stage of maturation Current composition of the industry in terms of companies and technologies position in this cycle Innovation approaches employed by various types of organizations Solar successes that have matured from technology development to commercial production 2

3 Hudson Fund Overview Fund $1 billion fund to capitalize on dynamic growth in global clean energy Team Founders of U.S. alternative energy investment business at Goldman Specialized knowledge in clean energy sectors and assets Partners have long history of working together Track Record Over $1.5 billion invested in leading clean energy franchises and assets at Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Capture and build franchise value by investing in growth capital, buyouts and real assets 3

4 Hudson Investment Approach F Asset Value Limiting downside exposure through hard assets Wind farms, solar installations, manufacturing equipment Franchise Value Capturing upside through low-cost optionality Brand, development pipeline, EBITDA growth multiple A Constraints to Growth Lifting impediments and creating barriers to entry Wind turbine availability, silicon supply shortfall, value chain bottlenecks Enhancements to Value Strategic equity sponsor Business model innovation, tax optimization, structured finance, credit derivatives, cap rate compression 4

5 PV Technology Maturation Cycle Company Stage Technology Development Pilot Plant Demo Plant Business Strategy First Commercial Plant Portfolio Project Finance Company Expansion New Devices and Processes These research and development activities address the development of novel photovoltaic devices or processes with potentially significant performance or cost advantages. Prototype Design and Pilot Production These R&D activities emphasize development of PV prototype components or systems produced at pilot scale with demonstrated cost, reliability, or performance advantages. Systems Development and Manufacturing These R&D activities focus on components and systems that are ready for mass production and capable of delivering energy at target costs. Source: DOE SETP website 5

6 Investment Spectrum through Technology Maturation Hudson invests in high growth industries that bridge the gap between venture capital and infrastructure investment styles 6

7 Who Is Investing in Clean Energy? Company Stage Technology Development Pilot Plant Demo Plant Business Strategy First Commercial Plant Portfolio Project Finance Company Expansion Investment Style Angel/A Round Venture Capital B Round/C Round Private Equity/Hedge D Round/ EXIT IPO Infrastructure Equity BUYOUT/ PIPES 2007 Capital Invested $1.0B $2.5B $6.3B $25.4B (1) $4.1B # Funds : VC: $3.5B PE/Hedge/Other: $35.8B Total Funds Operating in Sector: 795 VC Funds: 535 PE/Hedge: 260 (1) Equity portion of Infrastructure was estimated by taking Asset Finance 2007 total of $84.5B and applying a 30% equity to total financing ratio Source: New Energy Finance 7

8 Investment Trends in Solar Global Investment in Solar U.S Investment in Solar $4,000 $1,800 $3,500 $1,600 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $500 $200 $ $ Over the last 4 years, the solar industry has seen a remarkable increase in investments Source: New Energy Finance 8

9 Investments in Solar by Region Cumulative Source: New Energy Finance, ( ) 9

10 HOW HAVE PAST INVESTMENT TRENDS LAID A FOUNDATION FOR GROWTH STAGE PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTING IN SOLAR? Private Financings in U.S. Solar Value Chain, Number of Rounds Year Seed / Angel Series A / First round Series B / Second round Series C / Third round Series D / Fourth round Tech or early spin off Bridge/Interim Convertible Venture debt/leasing Further / Pre IPO round Source: NEF, NREL, FACC, DOE 10

11 WHAT TECHNOLOGIES HAVE BEEN PREPARED FOR GROWTH STAGE PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTING IN SOLAR? Global Venture Capital and Private Equity Investments by Solar Technology ($ in millions) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Thin Film PV Solar Heating & Cooling Project Developer Polysilicon Other Next Generation PV Multijunction Manufacturing Equipment Inverters CSP Crystalline Silicon PV CPV Number of Transactions Number of Transactions Asia EU* US** Region / Year Source: NEF, NREL, FACC, DOE *EU includes Israel, Morocco, & South Africa **U.S. includes Australia and Canada 11

12 WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF PV SYSTEMS AND HOW DO THEY COMPETE IN THE MARKET? System Type Flat Plate: Crystalline Silicon Flat Plate: Thin Film Flexible: Thin Film High Concentration PV (HCPV) Advantages Disadvantages Higher efficiency lower BOS costs & high kwh/m 2 Enjoy economies of scale from mass production Longer demonstrated performance in field Higher manufacturing costs across supply chain Limited differentiation commodity price risk Lower manufacturing costs higher margins and/or pricing power Further room to improve performance/cost Lower efficiency higher BOS costs & low kwh/m 2 Reliability concerns due to shorter demonstrated field performance Lower total system costs by eliminating BOS equipment, install steps Higher kwh/m 2 for utility scale systems due to no need for spacing Lower kwh/m 2 for C&I rooftop customers Reliability concerns due to shorter demonstrated field performance MAYBE lower $/kwh for utility scale systems in high solar resource areas Leverage lower costs of non cell components to reduce CAPEX costs N/A beyond markets with high solar resource w/o major cost reduction Limited history questions on energy yield Electricity Cost (2007) ~$.14 21/kWh ~$.11 18/kWh ~$.14 21/kWh * Limited commercial data Best End Use Markets Residential, C&I Rooftop Utility scale in high solar resource areas Utility scale in lower solar resource areas C&I Rooftop Utility scale in all areas Utility scale in high solar resource areas Market Share (All 2007) 89.7% (Est.) 8.2% (Est.) ~2% (Est.) ~0.1% (Est.) 12

13 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED SOLAR GENERATION CAPACITY 12,000 Global Nameplate Capacity (MW) 1,400 U.S. Nameplate Capacity (MW) 10,000 8,000 6,000 CAGR: CSP 0.0%; PV 33.2% 1,200 1, CAGR: CSP 2.44%; PV 30.04% 4, , CSP PV CSP PV Source: US DOE, Renewable Energy Data Book (September 2008) 13

14 WHAT ARE THE KEY MARKET TRENDS THAT WILL IMPACT INVESTMENTS IN THE PV SECTOR DURING ? Positive Trends for Overall Sector Clear path to grid parity: Improving technologies and decreasing costs bringing PV into parity with retail and wholesale prices, especially as fuel/plant costs increase conventional prices. Scaling of production creating economies of scale: Manufacturers will exploit equipment/material price declines and pass on savings to downstream customers as buyer power increases with supply. Quick source of new generating capacity: Because PV plants can be built in 6 12 months, can address new demand quickly. Stabilization of U.S. policy environment: With extension of federal solar tax credits for 8 years, business planning is more certain. Dislocations Creating Investing Opportunity Project finance shortage is creating dislocations: Downstream companies without access will have to sell franchises/projects. Capital shortfalls for supply chain expansion: M&A opportunities will emerge in supply chain as growth plans can t be met alone. Varying margin contraction in supply chain: Different companies will experience liquidity/margin contraction due to specific contractual situations yielding buying or M&A opportunities. Pricing power is shifting downstream: Project developers will be able to purchase equipment at lower prices as supply catches up with subsidies and distribution channels. Market segmentation emerging: Companies with technology solutions that show best fit with end use applications or geographies will grow faster as buyer discrimination improves. New markets emerging: As subsidy driven markets in Europe reach saturation, U.S. and non EU markets will become clearing markets for PV yielding opportunity to position downstream companies to lead. Sources: DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program, EIA 14

15 U.S. Participants in PV Technology Maturation Cycle* Company Stage Technology Development Pilot Plant Demo Plant Business Strategy First Commercial Plant Portfolio Project Finance Company Expansion New Devices and Processes Georgia Institute of Technology University of Delaware North Carolina State University MIT CalTech Arizona State University of Toledo University of Florida Pennsylvania State National Labs Prototype Design and Pilot Production Advent Solfocus Solaria Suniva Calisolar Blue Square Solopower Nanosolar Solyndra Miasole Global Solar PrimeStar Konarka Innovalight Stion Systems Development and Manufacturing First Solar SunPower BP Solar SolarWorld Boeing (Spectrolab) Unisolar Evergreen GE *Partial List 15

16 Market Scale for PV/Clean Tech The largest renewable energy companies still have substantial room to grow before challenging the incumbent energy players $450B $400B $400B Market Cap $350B $300B $250B $200B $150B $100B $106B $109B $119B $150B $305B $50B $0B $1.1B $4.6B $6.1B $10.2B $12.5B $12.6B Clean Energy Traditional Energy Source: 8 October, 2008, Bloomberg 16

17 Summary and Conclusions The cycle of innovation of PV Technology is one that follows a traditional path from concept to prototype to pilot production to manufacturing The current interest in Solar Technology has an investment cycle which infuses capital in several segments, the scale depending on the maturity of the innovation Solar market growth continues at an aggressive pace, as does the capital invested Investment success stories have emerged in the last five years 17