Member States in Top Gear. EEAC meeting, 12 October 2012 Huib van Essen, CE Delft

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1 Member States in Top Gear EEAC meeting, 12 October 2012 Huib van Essen, CE Delft

2 Outline CE Delft Objective of the study Approach for the study GHG reduction options, policy and role of Member States Results: Indicator set/policy analysis National studies/scenarios ( 2050 road maps ) of Member States Main conclusions and policy recommendations 2

3 CE Delft Policy consultancy Independent, not-for profit Founded in 1978 Transport, Energy, Economics Clients include European Commission, national governments, the private sector, NGOs Huib van Essen, Manager Transport 3

4 Objective of the study Assessment of the national transport policy for decarbonizing transport in EU Member States Focus on: Trends over last decade Current policy in Member States that affects GHG emissions of transport National studies/scenarios ( 2050 road maps ) of Member States Main differences, challenges and good practices 4

5 Approach Indicator set on the trends and policies in all EU Member States; based on EU wide data sets: EEA TERM fact sheets DG MOVE pocketbook Eurostat EU wide comparisons (e.g. tax guide, company car taxation, etc.) Detailed data gathering for selected Member States: Focus on relevant national policies and national 2050 roadmaps Supported by subcontractors: national experts Questionnaire Synthesis, analysis and conclusions 5

6 GHG reduction options and policies GHG reduction GHG reduction Regulation Fuel efficient vehicles Low carbon energy carriers Modal shift More efficient vehicle use Economic instruments Infrastructure and spatial planning Speed and traffic management Policy for stimulating innovation Less demand growth Communication and information policy 6

7 Role of EU and local/regional governments in decarbonization EU: Regulation of vehicles and energy carriers Frameworks for pricing (e.g. energy taxation and infrastructure pricing) Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) TEN-T infrastructure policy Subsidies and R&D Regional and local: Infrastructure and spatial policy Local/regional public transport and cycling policy Traffic management, speed and parking policies Local congestion charging schemes Subsidies and R&D 7

8 Role of Member States in decarbonization Economic instruments: fiscal policies, infrastructure charging Infrastructure and spatial policy Subsidies and R&D Fuel and energy regulation and support Policy for stimulating specific modes, including public transport policy Traffic management and speed policy on national roads 8

9 EU-15 EU-12 EU-15 EU-12 Transport GHG emissions /relative-to Change in transport GHG emissions SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG EU12 UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE EU15 EU27-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE Transport GHG emissions per euro and capita Transport GHG per GDP (kg/euro, upper) Transport GHG per capita 2009 (kg/capita, lower) 9

10 EU-15 EU-12 EU-15 EU-12 Average distance per capita and modal split transport volume (pkm) per capita Modal split of passenger transport SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG EU-12 UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE EU-15 EU-27 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Passenger cars Buses & coaches Tram & metro Railways 10

11 2009 car ownership (veh./1000 inh.) Car ownership vs GDP per capita 700 Car ownership vs. GDP MT LT PL SI EE CZ PT LV SK BG HU RO IT AT CY DE FI FR SE BE EL ES UK NL IE DK LU GDP per capita (2009) 11

12 EU-15 EU-12 EU-15 EU-12 Freight transport intensity and modal split Freight intensity tkm/1000 GDP (2009) Modal split freight volume SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT EE CZ BG EU-12 UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG EU-12 UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE EU-15 EU-27 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Road Pipeline IWW Rail EU-15 EU ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 12

13 GHG reduction targets for transport 13

14 EU-15 EU-12 Fuel excise duties for road fuels SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG Excise duties in EU countries excluding VAT (EUR/1000 L) UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE Diesel Gasoline 14

15 real fuel tax, (2010) per litre Fuel excise duties over time diesel petrol weighted average

16 Rail energy taxation 16

17 Vehicle tax levels for various car types 14,000 Comparison of taxation of 2 Fiat Panda models Comparison of taxation of 2 Ford Focus models 12,000 10, , ,000 4, ,000 - (2,000) DE DK ES FR HU IT NL PL SE UK - (5.000) DE DK ES FR HU IT NL PL SE UK Fiat Panda Twin air 85 lounge (95 g/km) Fiat Panda Classic (110 g/km) Ford Focus 1.0 EcoBoost ECOnetic Trend (109 g/km) Ford Focus 1.6 TI-VCT 125pk Trend Sport (149 g/km) 40,000 Comparison of taxation of different sized vehicles 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - (5,000) DE DK ES FR HU IT NL PL SE UK Fiat Panda Classic (110 g/km) VW Golf 1.2 TSI 105pk BlueM. Techn. Trendl. (121 g/km) BMW 520i Executive (149 g/km) 17

18 Company car taxation 18

19 Tax deductions for commuter travel 19

20 Ticket tax aviation 20

21 Road infrastructure charges 21

22 EU-15 EU-12 Investment and changes in road/rail network SK SI RO PL MT HU LV LT CY EE CZ BG Gross investment spending related to GDP (2009 prices) UK SE FI PT AT NL LU IT FR ES EL IE DE DK BE 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% rail road 22

23 CO 2 prices used in CBA s 600 CO 2 price levels in CBA DE DK ES FR HU IT NL PL SE UK 23

24 National biofuel policy 24

25 Innovation programmes and subsidies 25

26 Other policies that were assessed Stimulating cycling and measures for stimulating modal shift Spatial policy: interesting policy in Denmark Ecodriving Speed policy: significant differences for non-urban roads: Motorways: 100 up to no limit Other roads: 60/80 up to 90/120 26

27 Main assumptions national studies/scenarios 27

28 Main conclusions EU Member States have a key role to play in decarbonisation of transport In none of the Member States achieving 60% GHG emission reduction is realistically achievable with the current policy strategy The study provides clear guidance for countries on methods to improve their transport-climate policy and identifies best and worse cases To be effective, policies need to: be consistent be regularly updated and tightened (e.g. to keep pace with innovation) provide continuously, predictable incentives to the market 28

29 Main conclusions Economic instruments can strongly support the uptake of energy saving and low-carbon technology: e.g. vehicles taxes and fuel Technology alone is likely to be insufficient to solve the problem and for meeting the 2050 reduction target Economic instruments, e.g. infrastructure charges, ticket taxes Abolishment of (implicit) subsidies, e.g. commuter tax advantages Speed policy and spatial and infrastructure policies Policies stimulating specific modes, e.g. cycling and public transport Long term decarbonisation targets are not yet well integrated in the existing national transport policies 29

30 Discussion/questions? 30

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