Trends In Alaska s Economy

Transcription

1 Trends In Alaska s Economy November 19th-20th, 2014 Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research Section, Neal Fried, Economist

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3 Alaska--Boom, Bust and Moderation 350,000 Number of jobs in AK growth resumes in and record count begins again 300, , 21 years of growth ends in , full recovery -- record annual count begins for 19 years 200,000 oil revenue boom Alaska s Great Recession 150, * *preliminary

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6 AK s and Nation's Unemployment Rate Relationship Returning to Normal 12% Unemployment rate 10% U.S. 8% Alaska 6% 4% 2% Alaska U.S. 0% Work is about a search for daily meaning as well as daily bread. Studs Terkel

7 Ak s Employment Growth Slows Annual employment growth in AK 5,600 5,000 4,200 4,200 5,400 4,600 3,100 1, , * Source: Alask a Department of Labor and Workforc e Development, Research and Analysis Sec tion *preliminary

8 Slower Growth percent employment change from previous year-ak 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% -0.4% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11* '12 '13* '14 *preliminary

9 Mining Employment Remains Largely Annual mining employment Unchanged 2,700 3,100 3,000 2,900 1,411 1,592 1,874 2,109 2,291 2,126 2, * *preliminary

10 Nice Growth In Fishing Fish harvesting and processing employment in the great state of AK 15,404 15,930 16,186 16,614 16,460 16,270 16,287 17,371 18,267 17,989 18, Processing Harvesting

11 Oil Industy Employment Keeps Hitting New Highs Number of oil and gas jobs 10,200 11,500 12,800 12,900 12,700 13,000 13,800 14,100 14,300 8,200 8, * *estimated

12 During The Past Decade Prudhoe Bay Employment Counts Have More Than Doubled All workers in Prudhoe 7,781 9,069 11,196 10,417 10,485 10,565 10,848 10,967 Running 1,200 above year-ago levels 12,100 5,997 6, * *based on first quarter

13 Visitor Numbers Up For Third Year In A Row Full-year visitor volume 1,693,900 1,875,200 1,881,000 1,961,500 1,949,900 1,838,700 1,776,500 1,823,600 1,849,700 1,966,700 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Sour ce: McDowell Group

14 April 24, 2014 Montanans, Alaskans Say States Among Top Places to Live Ill., R.I. residents most likely to say states are among worst places to live by Jus1n McCarthy WASHINGTON, D.C. - - When asked to rate their state as a place to live, three in four Montanans (77%) and Alaskans (77%) say their state is the best or one of the best places to live. Residents of Rhode Island (18%) and Illinois (19%) are the least likely to praise their states.

15 A Decade Of Growth In Alaska Mining Oil and Gas Health Care Seafood* Professional and Business Srvs.** Uniformed Military Leisure and Hospitality All Employment State Transportation and Utilities Retail Trade Local Construction Federal Percentage employment growth by industry, 2003 to , % +6,000 75% +9,700 40% +3,400 26% +6,800 29% +3,400 17% +3,900 13% +37,600 13% +2,100 9% % +1,900 5% % -4% % -1,600 *includes harvesting and processing

16 Federal Civilian Employment-Big Declines Federal Civilian Employment-AK 16,809 16,891 17,065 17,558 17,037 16,390 15,473 15, * *preliminary

17 What Industry Earnings Look Like In AK Alaska's 2013 average annual earnings Oil and Gas Mining Construction Federal Government Transport.& Wareh. Profess. & Bus. Servs. State Gov Government Health Care Financial Industry AK Average Local Gov Manufacturing Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. $74,904 $72,420 $60,360 $59,580 $54,372 $53,208 $51,769 $51,396 $51,036 $44,844 $41,400 $29,484 $21,252 $101,952 $129,336

18 Gains Were Better During The Past Decade Alaska's annual average earnings dollars $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30, Source: B EA

19 Part of the Exclusive Club Ranking State Median Household Income Maryland $72,483 2 Alaska $72,237 3 New Jersey $70,165 4 Hawaii $68,020 5 Connecticut $67,098 U.S. $52,250 Source: U. S. Census Bureau, ACS

20 Alaskans Most Positive About Standard of Living Gallup's U.S. Standard of Living Index improved in nearly all states by Justin McCarthy 12> WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Among residents of the 50 states, Alaskans were the most satisfied with and optimistic about their standard of living in 2013, according to Gallup's Standard of Living Index. Alaska's average index score of 53 was similar to the scores in North Dakota and Hawaii, but far outpaced West Virginia's bottom-ranking score of 22. The national index improved to 38 in 2013, up from 34 in 2012, with marginal improvements in nearly all states.

21 Earnings Don t Vary That Much 2013 Avg. Hourly Earnings Cost-of-Living Index Alaska $ U.S. $ California $ Oregon $ Washington $ Texas $ Florida $ New York $ Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Missouri Economic Research Information Center, 2013

22 Map: Where Americans Are Generous Tippers And where they're scrooges. Roberto A. Ferdman Mar , 8:31 AM ET

23 3500 Home Sales Were Up But Slowed During First Half Of 2014 Single family home sales Anchorage MatSu Kenai P. Fairbanks 1st nine months of 2014 Anchorage down 8%, Fairbanks down 9%, MatSu up 19% and Kenai P up 12% Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysi s Section, Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, MLS.

24 Some Economic Forces That Will Influence AK s Near Future Bearish/Risks Oil Production Federal Dollars Bullish Decent Commodity Prices Oil Industry Activity Oil Prices/Revenues Tourism U.S. Economy

25 Alaska s Military-Will It Take A Hit? Uniformed military-alaska 22,675 23,141 21,073 21,067 19,816 20,168 24,449 23,195 20,914 22,438 23,237 17, percent of Fairbanks Population 10 percent of Anchorage s Population 18 percent of Kodiaks Population

26 Oil Prices Putting Damper On Growth? $140 ANS West Coast Price/barrel $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Sources: Alaska Department of Revenue

27 Alaska s Population Gains Grew With National Recession--But Now Slowing Total annual population gains for Alaska 16,037 7,493 7,437 5,586 6,649 11,010 9,559 8,403 4,

28 Alaska s Migration Tells A Different Story Annual net migration, Alaska 8,664 3, ,215 1, ,023-1,111-2,

29 Alaska Churn--The Number Of Folks Moving In And Moving Out Of AK Each Year 50,000 Alaska migration 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Comers Goers Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysi s Section, Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, MLS.

30 200 When People Move In And Out Of Alaska Net migration (people moving in minus people moving out of AK) Our youth begin to wander When we get older more move out than move in Age

31 We Remain Solidly AKers When It 240, , , , , , , ,000 Comes To Our Pickups Number of registered pickups in Alaska 727 landing draws crowd ,459 snow machines, peaked at 55,249 in 2008