MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research Jyske Markets

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1 Today s Comment The debt crisis in the euro zone is still very much leaving its mark across the financial markets, and risk aversion was once again the controlling factor during the trading session on Tuesday, which saw considerable declines in the leading European equity indices. Consumer confidence in the US offered a positive surprise as it increased from 57.7 to no less than 63.3 in May; expectations had pointed to The encouraging macroeconomic indicators did not, however, initially affect the markets, which are still characterised by much nervousness. At the short end of the yield curve there are still continued indications of tension in the market despite the recent initiatives from governments as well as central banks intended to put a damper on the rising nervousness. The 3-month USD Libor rate is still rising, and the Libor-OIS spread (can be seen as an indication of the risk premium in the market) is still widening. Moreover, the interest rates on the front eurodollar contract (futures contract on 3M USD Libor), which indicates that the market fears further increases in the 3M USD Libor rate over the coming weeks. In the FX markets the euro has resumed its decline against USD, JPY and CHF, while both EUR/NOK and EUR/SEK have in recent weeks seen support due to the rising risk aversion. Today will not see any major economic indicators, and therefore the general sentiment in the financial markets will presumably determine the direction in the FX markets. Despite the sour sentiment yesterday in Europe, US equities managed (after moving up and down quite a bit) to end the day unchanged, and overnight in Asia the leading equity indices managed to maintain a rather positive development. All other things being equal, this indicates that sentiment in Europe will be slightly more positive as of the early morning than was the case at closing yesterday. There is, however, still some nervousness, and therefore we may still see relatively large fluctuations. Today s Key Events 09:30 Trade balance (SEK) 10:00:00 Speech by Riksbanken s Ingves (SEK) 14:30:00 New orders, durable consumer goods (USD) 16:00 New home sales (USD) 22:15:00 Speech by Fed s Lacker (USD) Wednesday night 01:50:00 Trade balance (JPY) 02:00:00 Speech by Fed s Evans (USD) Today s Chart 3M USD Libor vs. 3M USD OIS Spread (bps) feb apr jun aug okt dec feb apr 3M USD Libor - 3M USD OIS 3M USD OIS 3M USD Libor Source: Reuters EcoWin/Jyske Bank Rate (%) Publisher Jyske Markets FX & Interest Rate Research Vestergade 8-16 DK-8600 Silkeborg Editors: Morten Lykke Pedersen FX & Interest Rates Helle Varming FX & Interest Rates Read more: Read more FX and interest rate analyses at Disclaimer: Please see the last page

2 Currency Spot Short-term market drivers Technical levels 1-month target Majors EUR/USD Renewed focus on internal imbalances in the euro zone and the downgrade of Greece s credit rating put pressure on the euro - Resistance next Focus on the relatively improved trend in the US due to good job figures for March where employment showed the sharpest rise in 3 years - Support: next The Fed s quantitative easing keeps the USD value low; higher government debt does not result in increases in the US market rate as it should + USDDKK Renewed focus on internal imbalances in the euro zone and the downgrade of Greece s credit rating put pressure on the euro + Resistance next Focus on the relatively improved trend in the US due to good job figures for March where employment showed the sharpest rise in 3 years + Support: next The Fed s quantitative easing keeps the USD value low; higher government debt does not result in increases in the US market rate as it should - EURGBP Focus on very negative public finances and uncertainty about the political situation up to the parliamentary election (May?) may hit GBP + Resistance next Pound sterling has been under massive in recent weeks and (too) much misery has already been discounted - Support: next We expect that the quantitative easing came to an end in February and that the BoE will start normalising its monetary policy in H2 - GBPDKK Focus on very negative public finances and uncertainty about the political situation up to the parliamentary election (May?) may hit GBP - Resistance next Pound sterling has been under massive in recent weeks and (too) much misery has already been discounted + Support: next We expect that the quantitative easing came to an end in February and that the BoE will start normalising its monetary policy in H2 + EURJPY Focus on debts in Southern Europe has caused pressure on the single European currency and shifted the balance of power between EUR and JPY - Resistance next Risk of renewed risk aversion supports JPY slightly - Support: next Decent growth in recent months; the economy is, however, still fragile; low growth ahead and deflation may once again be a theme + JPYDKK 6.74 Focus on debts in Southern Europe has caused pressure on the single European currency and shifted the balance of power between EUR and JPY + Resistance 6.62 next 6.72 Risk of renewed risk aversion supports JPY slightly + Support: 6.51 next Decent growth in recent months; the economy is, however, still fragile; low growth ahead and deflation may once again be a theme - EURCHF Resistance next Please refer to the publication, Risk of CHF appreciating further Support: next CHFDKK Please refer to the publication, Risk of CHF appreciating further Resistance next Support: next

3 Currency Spot Short-term market drivers Technical levels 1-month target Scandinavia EURNOK Continuing improvement of key indicators in Norway: labour market is strong and housing market is close to its record-high levels - Resistance next Norges Bank was one of the first ones to raise its interest rate. Even though we may be in for a slow start, we foresee 2.75% in the 1-year term - Support: next Correction in the equity market/rising risk aversion will still be able to put pressure on the NOK + NOKDKK Continuing improvement of key indicators in Norway: labour market is strong and housing market is close to its record-high levels + Resistance next Norges Bank was one of the first ones to raise its interest rate. Even though we may be in for a slow start, we foresee 2.75% in the 1-year term + Support: next Correction in the equity market/rising risk aversion will still be able to put pressure on the NOK - EURSEK Still risk that SEK will be affected in the event of risk aversion - Resistance 980 next 984 The economy is improving but is still fragile and there are still prospects of rising unemployment + Support: 968 next The Riksbank maintains its interest rate at 0.25%, but upgrades its growth and inflation estimates for SEKDKK Still risk that SEK will be affected in the event of risk aversion + Resistance next The economy is improving but is still fragile and there are still prospects of rising unemployment - Support: next The Riksbank maintains its interest rate at 0.25%, but upgrades its growth and inflation estimates for

4 Current Strategies Currency Strategy Description of Strategy Date of Entry Entry Level Target Stop Loss READ MORE Due to deflation in Japan, BoJ will keep rates unchanged for quite som time into 2011 USD/JPY Option Widening of the interest-rate spread to the US and the euro zone, among others, will put the yen under pressure N/A CLICK HERE In the long term, the dollar will strengthen due to a faster economic recovery and stronger rate hikes in the US Bemærk: We point out that FX investment is currently associated with extraordinarily high uncertainty. But for long-term risk tolerant investors, there may be good investment opportunities in these turbulent times. This recommendation is only relevant for very risk-tolerant clients with the right risk profile and the overall financial strength to cope with any loss that may be incurred.

5 Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied. This is a recommendation and not an investment report. Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent conflicts of interest. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank. Jyske Bank's FX, money market and commodity analysts may not hold positions in the instruments for which they prepare research reports, but Jyske Bank is permitted to hold positions and/or have interests in the instruments for which such reports are prepared. The analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports. Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at Risk FX, money market and/or commodity investment involves risk. Movements in the credit market, the sector and/or the news flow, etc. regarding the issuer may affect the exchange rate/the interest rate/the price of the commodity. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the currency/interest rate/commodity investment. The risk factors and/or the sensitivity calculations stated in the report should not be regarded as exhaustive. Update of the research report Analyses, recommendations, and ad hoc publications are not updated. A new publication will instead be published if and when it is found necessary. Market comments are updated daily. See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. All prices stated are the latest trading prices at the time of the release of the research report, unless otherwise stated.

MARKET DRIVERS CURRENCIES FX Research Jyske Markets

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