Development of competition in the European postal sector
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1 Development of competition in the European postal sector Study for the European Commission, DG Internal Market Second stakeholder workshop, Brussels, 26 April 2005
2 Contents Part I Progress until date Development of competition in the EU Member States Factors influencing the development of competition Part II Likely development of competition (pattern, scale) Expected impact of competition (market structure, services, prices, universal service) Need for (regulated) access?
3 Disclaimer The analysis and conclusions presented are preliminary and may be subject to revision while preparing the final study The analysis and conclusions presented are the responsibility of the consultants and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission
4 Progress until date Lot of efforts, thank you for your support! Report collection and desk research Country visits carried out (DE, FR, IT, NL, PL) Questionnaires and telephone interviews Policy makers, NRAs, NPOs: 75 sent, >95% returned Competitors, customers, CROs: 138 sent, 15-20% returned Opinion survey First round carried out among 20 respondents Preparing the final study Work in progress
5 Development of competition General picture Competition in addressed mail still is very limited But : 50 80% of mail volumes still in reserved area All NPOs still have dominant market share in addressed mail: 5 countries 90%-95% UK/DE/SE/NL/ES 5 countries 95%-98% FR/CZ/SI/EL/IE Other countries >98% AT/BE/DK/CY/EE/PT/PL/LT/LV/LU/HU/MT/IT/SF/SK Some incumbents have lost considerable market shares in already liberalised markets Express, parcels, unaddressed (BE, SK), direct mail (CZ, IT)
6 Development of competition Some relevant case studies Entrants in advertising mail Focus on last mile (example ADREXO, FR) Focus on first mile (example EP Europost, DE) Entrants in domestic letter mail (B2C, B2B) Value added services (examples in Germany) From advertising mail to transaction (letter) mail One-stop-shopping Experiences with network access
7 Development of competition Countries that liberalised their markets Sweden Example of City Mail Developments within Sweden Post Estonia and Finland License requirements restrict the development of competition => Cosmetic liberalisation Tentative lessons
8 Development of competition Countries with liberalised segments Czech Republic, Netherlands, Slovenia Direct mail (printed matter) liberalised United Kingdom Bulk mail liberalised (both administrative and advertising mail) Spain Intra-city mail liberalised France Upstream market liberalised
9 Development of competition Countries with limited liberalisation Poland Transitional: <350 gr. reserved No active competitors Cyprus Cross border mail relatively important, but inbound and outbound reserved (30% of total volume) Malta Cross border mail relatively important, but inbound and outbound reserved <100 gr. JV with New Zealand Post to strengthen international mail
10 Development of competition Some elaborated country examples Slides will be included in the actual presentation on 26 April 2005
11 Development of competition IV Strategies of national postal operators National Regional European Global
12 Ambitions/strategies of NPOs National Regional EU Global
13 Postal operators seeking investors Austria Post Denmark Post Belgium Post Ireland Post Who s next? Competitors gain market share Decrease Domestic mail volumes Needing investment Limited ROS Limited scope Need to broaden the revenue base Consolidation in EU has started
14 New entrants Who are they? Focus on the first mile Pre-postal activities Mail preparation and mail consolidation Last mile delivery From unaddressed to addressed mail New entry in addressed bulk advertising mail Entry by publishers and providers of value added services 2-3 times delivery per week Pre-sorting, flexible workforce
15 New entrants Differences in business models Top-down Core national unit Supplemented with Local operators New business concept Central support Decentralized operations integrators Bottom-up Core regional unit supplemented with expanded operations in other regions publishers Extend current business Expand to more regions
16 New entrants How are they doing? Most need some 2-5 years to make first profits City Mail Sweden needed 12 years Sandd and Selektmail Nederland needed more than 4 years Business Mail UK already breaks even in second year Certain time horizon seems essential
17 New entrants What are their main complaints? Solving disputes takes too much time Anti-competitive behaviour of NPO Problems with access - De jure: what is possible? - De facto: problems in practice Discrimination between customers and competitors Different VAT obligations NPOs and competitors
18 Demand side of the postal sector Large customers Commercial importance of mail handling Reputation of postal operator important Demand for value added services and full range of postal services (one-stop-shopping?) Customer orientation of postal operator important Would like to have a choice Senders of advertising mail Importance of national coverage Certainty when delivery takes place more important than frequency of delivery
19 Factors influencing competition Government policy and powers NRA Strategy and business performance NPO Development of competition in home markets
20 Factors influencing competition Government policy and powers NRA Strategy and business performance NPO Development of competition In home markets Development of competition in (other) EU markets
21 Factors influencing competition Economic importance Mail volumes, mail/capita, population density Level playing field? US obligations, uniform pricing VAT exemptions Access to letterboxes, address change notifications Small versus large mailers (consolidation)
22 Factors influencing competition Strategic entry barriers (drawn up by the NPO) Predatory pricing Other ways to prevent entry (trade marks, patents, access requirements) Legal entry barriers Reserved area Regulatory uncertainty Licensing and license requirements Natural entry barriers Demand side: reputation effects, requirements Supply side: sunk costs, economies of scale/scope
23 Part II: Development of competition Likely development of competition (pattern, scale) Expected effect of competition (market structure, services, prices, universal service) Need for (regulated) access?
24 Likely development of competition I Substitution and bargaining power of large customers grow in importance Both B2C and B2B attractive for new entry, C2X much less so Likely business models Development of full service concept (small number) Development of low cost model (segments, areas) Development in part of the value chain (consolidation) Development of niche markets Business models will not copy the NPO model
25 To Customer From Customer Business 5 % 65 % % are averages 95 % Business 10 % 20 % Penetration in advertising mail market especially in business sector and populated areas Direct mail Strategic threats on core markets (B2B and B2C) to national postal service providers Penetration core letter mail market especially in main business sector and populated areas Business mail
26 Likely development of competition II International: Entry/growth of pan-european NPOs 1. In countries with high mail volumes 2. In countries/segments with substantial unfulfilled demand 3. In other countries -> high end value added services National: Publishers expanding into mail market Unaddressed mailers developing into addressed (advertising) mail New postal operators targeting specific mail flows From mail to express, not visa-versa!
27 Likely development of competition III Consolidation in mail, express and logistics Top 5 EU mail 1. DPAG, DE 2. La Poste, FR 3. Royal Mail, UK 4. TPG, NL 5. Poste Italiane, IT Source: Annual Reports National Postal Operators 2003 Top 5 EU CEP market express & parcels 1. DPWN, DE 2. TNT Express, NL 3. GeoPost (incl.dpd), FR 4. UPS, USA 5. Royal Mail, UK Source: Transport Intelligence Ltd. Report: European Express Leaders 2003 Top 5 EU logistics 1. DHL Solutions, DE 2. TNT Logistics, NL 4. Exel PLC, UK 5. Fiege, DE 7. Geodis Logistics, FR Source: Transport Intelligence Ltd. Pan-European Logistics Index Report: European Logistics Leaders 2004
28 Speed of likely development of competition under full liberalisation
29 Market structure: expected market shares of competitors (opinion survey) Market segment B2B B2C C2B C2B Addressed L.M. 40% 30% Addressed D.M % 30% 5-10% International M. Total letter market 70% 10-40% (differences over time, per country)
30 Expected effect on services Development of value added services, mainly B2X: Other sorting concept Data management addresses, mail room management Computer generated business mail, letter preparation Mail consolidation Track & trace, 2 nd delivery Differentiation in service levels: Quick and reliable Normal Slow and cheap
31 Expected effect on price levels (opinion survey) Market segment B2B B2C C2B C2B Addressed L.M. Addressed D.M. International M. -10% -15% Differs between countries Prices will not fall, may go up (for households, SMEs)
32 Expected effect on universal service If USO remains unchanged Funding of USO under relative pressure (but country by country analysis needed) Funding pressure related to efficiency and product range of NPO (static and dynamic analysis needed) Impact on competition development depends on how the USO burden is shared If USO limited to single item mail Funding of USO under pressure, but less than above (only overnight single item mail in USO) Sharing USO burden less relevant Contributes to level playing field in bulk mail
33 Need for (regulated) access? No (major) monopolistic bottlenecks Consensus on: Access to P.O. Boxes and letterboxes Access to postal code system Access to address change notifications Possibility to return mail trough NPO Non-discrimination between customers and competitors Public offer: transparency in QoS, tariffs, discounts Non-discrimination between SMEs and large customers
34 ECORYS-NEI Postbus AD Rotterdam Watermanweg GG Rotterdam The Netherlands T F Dr. Nick van der Lijn Director Macro and Sector Policies Tel nick.vanderlijn@ecorys.com Web: Project contacts Hans Kok Tel GSM jgakok@zonnet.nl Arno Meijer Tel arno.meijer@ecorys.com
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