Energinet.dk s Open Season 2009 expansion projects. Hannover 27. april 2009 Søren Juel Hansen, Head of infrastructure

Transcription

1 Energinet.dk s Open Season expansion projects Hannover 27. april Søren Juel Hansen, Head of infrastructure

2 Energinet.dk The expansion projects Open season

3 Facts about Energinet.dk (I) Independent public enterprise under the Ministry of Climate and Energy Own Supervisory Board Established by virtue of the Danish Act on Energinet.dk with a merger between Elkraft, Eltra and Gastra in 2005 Approx. 500 employees, most of whom work in Erritsø and Ballerup Owns and operates the motorways of energy - The main electricity and natural gas grids - The regional electricity grid in North Zealand

4 Facts about Energinet.dk (II) Owns and operates Lille Torup natural gas storage facility Co-owner of the Nordic power exchange and the Danish gas exchange 10% owner share in the Skanled project towards Norway Annual turnover: DKK 8-9 billion (EUR billion) The consumers contribute to our activities via tariffs on their electricity and gas bills Our finances must break even, ie we are not meant to create a profit

5 Need for expansion bcm The Danish-Swedish gas supply challenge Past Danish North Sea production 2008 Reserves data from DEA (summer 2008) Future prognoses 2015 Demand? 2029 The Danish gas supply act: Energinet.dk assignments: Security of Supply Market development Competitive gas prices and reduced emergency costs Transmission and emergency supply on the industrial users' gas bill Molecules 49% Profit 7% Offshore 5% Transmission 5% Storage 3% Distribution 31% Molecules Profit Offshore Transmission Storage Distribution Transmission 56% Emergency supply 40% Secure financially sustainable and demand-based system development Gas-to-gas competition - hub development Average transportation costs Virtual points GTF NPTF Nybro - Danish Supplies - NL price signal Exit Zone Denmark Sæby/Skanled - Norwegian supplies Dragør -Swedish market Avedøre/ Baltic Pipe - Polish market DKK/M3 0,50 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0, Year Ellund - German market

6 The expansion projects

7 The Danish gas system today Existing pipelines Existing connection Existing storage facilities Existing compressors Existing hubs

8 Where can the gas come from? Skanled (Norwegian gas) Swedegas (Norwegian gas) Existing pipelines Existing storage facilities Existing compressors Possible new pipelines Possible new compressors DONG Energy (Danish gas) DEUDAN (German gas market/nor wegian or Russian gas) Baltic Pipe (Polish gas market/ Russian gas)

9 The expansion projects Pipeline a: km Skanled Point A: Sæby Relevant entry-exit points: A Sæby from Skanled B Avedøre to/from Baltic Pipe C Dragør to/from Sweden D Ellund to/from Germany Lille Torup Pipeline b: km Pipelines: a Sæby-Lille Torup b Lille Torup-Egtved h Ellund-Egtved i Hvidovre LV Avedøre Holme Compressor c Point E: Nybro Pipeline h km Point D: Ellund Compressor g Egtved Langeskov Compressor d Point C: Dragør Pipeline i Compressor f Point B: Avedøre Compressor e Baltic Pipe Compressors: c Egtved to East DK, SE, PL d Langeskov to SE, PL e Avedøre to Poland f Dragør to Sweden g Ellund to DK

10 Open Season

11 Open Season time schedule Initial discussions Non-binding Phase 1 Binding Phase 2 Model Paper launch Dialogue on open season design Call for nonbinding phase 1 Deadline for phase-1 bids Response to phase-1 bids Call for binding phase 2 Deadline for binding bids in phase 2 Open season contract award Oct 2008 Nov - Dec 08 Jan Apr Jul - Aug Sep Dec

12 Open Season and the adjacent systems Open Season and the adjacent systems Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Energinet.dk Phase 1 (non-binding) Phase 2 (binding) Contract signing Gaz System Phase 1 (non-binding) Phase 2 (binding) Contract signing Gasunie Phase 1 (non-binding) Phase 2 (binding) Contract signing Skanled Final recommendation Final investment decision 1/2

13 Open Season time schedule Phase 1 Initial discussions Non-binding Phase 1 Binding Phase 2 Model Paper launch Dialogue on open season design Call for nonbinding phase 1 Deadline for phase-1 bids Response to phase-1 bids Call for binding phase 2 Deadline for binding bids in phase 2 Open season contract award Oct 2008 Nov - Dec 08 Jan Apr Jul - Aug Sep Dec

14 Technical capacities offered 12,000,000 KWh/h 2 Min. tech. Limit Intermediate step Max. tech. limit 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Sæby, Entry Avedøre, Entry Avedøre, Exit Dragør, entry Dragør, exit Ellund, Entry Ellund, exit

15 Demand requirements 12,000,000 KWh/h 2 Min. tech. Limit Intermediate step Max. tech. limit Economic capacity limit 10,000,000 8,000,000 7,700,000 6,000,000 5,400,000 4,000,000 4,150,000 3,700,000 2,000,000 2,900,000 2,900,000 1,900,000 3,350,000 2,650,000 1,550, ,000 0 Sæby, Entry Avedøre, Entry Avedøre, Exit Dragør, Entry Dragør, Exit Ellund, Entry Ellund, Exit

16 Open Season time schedule Phase 1 Focus on reducing the number of investment combinations - From 12 to?

17 Open Season time schedule Phase 2 Initial discussions Non-binding Phase 1 Binding Phase 2 Model Paper launch Dialogue on open season design Call for nonbinding phase 1 Deadline for phase-1 bids Response to phase-1 bids Call for binding phase 2 Deadline for binding bids in phase 2 Open season contract award Oct 2008 Nov - Dec 08 Jan Apr Jul - Aug Sep Dec

18 Open Season time schedule Phase 2: Selecting the final investment combination HIGH RISK 1. Where is the strongest Open Season demand signal? 2. Which of the demanded investment combinations support + - security of supply - market development - the European dimension + - the climate - the environment + 3. Points of agreement with the adjacent systems? 4. Recommendation to Energinet.dk's Board and the Minister 5. Coordinated system operator investment plan 6. Agreements with the Open Season participants, possibly with conditions precedent + =

19 In conclusion Open-season demand is the key investment driver Socioeconomic considerations, decisions in adjacent systems and politics may influence the final outcome We need your bid to secure financially sustainable and demand-based system development NB: Deadline for non-binding phase 1 bids is 30 April Pipeline a: km Skanled Point A: Sæby Lille Torup Pipeline b: km Egtved Point E: Nybro Compressor c Pipeline h km Langeskov Compressor d Point D: Ellund Compressor g Point C: Dragør Pipeline i Compressor f Point B: Avedøre Compressor e Baltic Pipe

20 Thank You for Your Attention Søren Juel Hansen, Head of Infrastructure

21 Reserve

22 Prospective open season investments Ll. Torup Pipeline b: km Pipeline a: km Skanled Point A: Sæby Relevant entry-exit points: A Sæby to/from Skanled B Avedøre to/from Baltic Pipe C Dragør to/from Sweden D Ellund to/from Germany Pipelines: a Sæby-Lille Torup b Lille Torup-Egtved Point C: Dragør h Ellund-Egtved Point E: Nybro Egtved Pipeline h: km Compressor c: Langeskov Compressor d: Compressor f: Compressor e: Point B: Avedøre Baltic Pipe Compressors: c Egtved to East DK, S, PL d Langeskov to S, PL e Avedøre to Poland Compressor g: f Dragør to Sweden Point D: Ellund g Ellund to DK Zone

23 Sæby investments for Skanled Pipeline a: km Skanled Point A: Sæby Relevant entry-exit points: A Sæby to/from Skanled Ll. Torup Pipeline b: km Pipelines: a Sæby-Lille Torup b Lille Torup-Egtved 30 pipeline 540,000 m3/h new entry capacity as most likely scenario. Coordinated with Skanled/Gassco. Current target date is 2012/13. EIA in progress. Currently, no expected delays

24 Avedøre investments for Baltic Pipe 3 compressors ,000 m3/h new exit and 375,000 mh/3 new entry capacity as most likely scenarios. Coordinated with Baltic Pipe/ Gaz System. Current target date is EIA obtained. Delay possible. Relevant entry-exit points: B Avedøre to/from Baltic Pipe Compressor c: Langeskov Compressor d: Compressor e: Point B: Avedøre Baltic Pipe Compressors: c Egtved to East DK, S, PL d Langeskov to S, PL e Avedøre to Poland

25 Dragør investments 1 compressor Energinet.dk offers 2 exit scenarios: A: Based on current capacity (250,000 m3/h), and B: Based on reduced capacity due to Baltic Pipe (125,000 m3/h). The likely expansion is in both cases 250,000 m3/h. An entry expansion for 200,000 is also considered. Dragør expansion not fully analysed. Possible target date is No concrete plans yet. Point C: Dragør Compressor f: Relevant entry-exit points: C Dragør to/from Sweden Compressors: Langeskov Compressor d: d Langeskov to S, PL f Swedish to Sweden

26 Ellund investments 1 Pipeline compressors 500 1,050,000 m3/h entry and 610,000 m3/h exit capacity. Possible target date is EIA not obtained. Delay possible. Expansion based on investment in Germany maybe possible before The German TSOs and Energinet.dk are in dialogue on how fast northbound volumes and pressures can be offered. Hopefully clarified in the 1st quarter of. Relevant entry-exit points: D Ellund to/from Germany Pipelines: h Ellund-Egtved Langeskov Pipeline h: km Compressor d: Point D: Ellund Compressor g: g Ellund to DK Zone

27 Prospective open season investments Ll. Torup Pipeline b: km Pipeline a: km Skanled Point A: Sæby Relevant entry-exit points: A Sæby to/from Skanled B Avedøre to/from Baltic Pipe C Dragør to/from Sweden D Ellund to/from Germany Pipelines: a Sæby-Lille Torup b Lille Torup-Egtved Point C: Dragør h Ellund-Egtved Point E: Nybro Egtved Pipeline h: km Compressor c: Langeskov Compressor d: Compressor f: Compressor e: Point B: Avedøre Baltic Pipe Compressors: c Egtved to East DK, S, PL d Langeskov to S, PL e Avedøre to Poland Compressor g: f Dragør to Sweden Point D: Ellund g Ellund to DK Zone