Points and Capacity Limits APPENDIX 1

Transcription

1 Points and Capacity Limits APPENDIX 1

2 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 2 1. Introduction The following Appendix contains the listing, description and Capacity delimitation of Points offered in the OS The Points described in this Appendix 1 are included in the relevant Investment Combinations in the Phase 1 bidding form attached to Rules for OS 2009 as Appendix 3. The Points offered in OS 2009 concerns exclusively Entry and Exit Points in the Danish Transmission System. Thus, the Points do not include any internal or storage points in the Danish Transmission System. Furthermore, the existing Entry Point in Nybro is not included, as it is expected that the present production Capacity from the North Sea will decrease leaving no scope for additional expansion of Capacity in Nybro. The primary information in this Appendix 1 is the Economical Capacity Limits and the Maximum Technical Capacity Limits imposed on the Points. The additional description of the potential investments contained herein provides an insight to Energinet.dk Gastransmission s planning and technical considerations and attempts to explain the necessary links between new technical assets, pipelines and compressor stations, which are required to create additional Capacity. The sum of Phase 2 Bids together with Energinet.dk Gastransmission s internal planning will identify the eventual final Investment Combination of new Points and technical assets. Energinet.dk Gastransmission has limited the potential expansion scenarios to Entry and/or Exit Points in Sæby, Avedøre, Dragør and Ellund. This entails a number of Investment Combinations of varying scale of Capacity expansion with different Points included. The investments involved in a potential expansion of the Danish Transmission System are significant compared to the current depreciated book value of Energinet.dk Gastransmission s assets and the possible impact on the tariff levels is therefore substantial. 1.1 Limitation of economic signals It is possible to estimate the investment costs of the new assets that are considered necessary to increase Capacity in the individual Points but the method by which the annual costs of new investments are added to the existing tariff base depends on the regulation in force during the time of operation. Thus, Appendix 1 does not include any economic signals with regard to the costs of the individual Investment Combinations. 1.2 Tariffs OS 2009 constitutes the first significant additions to the Danish Transmission System under the present legislation and regulatory regime. The size of investments relative to a fairly small, depreciated capital base show that cost of transportation will increase.

3 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 3 Energinet.dk Gastransmission is aware that long-term contracts with fixed amounts tied to a variable tariff contain a risk to Participants that may adversely effect their involvement in the OS Energinet.dk Gastransmission has therefore engaged in active dialogue with the Danish Energy Regulatory Authority to clarify the impact of investments on the future tariffs. However, Energinet.dk Gastransmission will not fix the tariffs for OS 2009 Capacity as the tariffs for OS 2009 Capacity shall be identical to the at all times valid tariffs for transport in the Danish Transmission System. Notwithstanding the above, Energinet.dk Gastransmission will publish the first of a series of economic analyses on the development in cost basis together with the Rules for OS These publications aim at sharing information with the Participants to support decision-making. With regards to the present tariff model, it is noted that investment costs are shared between points (same price in all points) in the sense that cost of new assets are added to a common cost base. Under the current regulatory regime, uniform tariffs are applied to and from the Danish Transmission System. Energinet.dk Gastransmission has so far only made a rough estimate of the investments required in order to expand the Capacity at the Points included in OS The exact Capacities feasible at each Point and the demand required to justify investment in the Points have not been fully assessed yet as they depend on dialogue with the Adjacent System Operators and the regulator (Danish Energy Regulatory Authority). 1.3 Maximum Technical Capacity Limits The Maximum Technical Capacity Limits constitute the upper limit for the Capacity that can be realised by Energinet.dk Gastransmission before the year 2015 (together with the System Operators of the Adjacent Systems) by way of an expansion of the Danish Transmission System. For most Points there are also incremental steps of expansions. These serve to show the amount of Capacity Energinet.dk Gastransmission is likely to offer if the investments are realised.

4 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 4 Figure 1: Maximum Technical Capacity Limits, Nm 3 per hour 1,200,000 1,000,000 Nm 3 /hour Min. tech. Limit Intermediate step Max. tech. limit 800, , , ,000 0 Sæby, Entry Avedøre, Entry Avedøre, Exit Dragør, entry Dragør, exit Ellund, Entry Ellund, exit Note: The Maximum Technical Capacity Limit in Dragør Exit is stated in two steps. Future Capacity Limits in Dragør Exit is limited by the possible construction of the Baltic Pipe and a compressor station in Avedøre to service exports to Poland. If Exit Dragør to Baltic Pipe is constructed, current Dragør Exit capacity is expected to be reduced to 125,000 Nm3/h, and the Maximum Technical Capacity possible to construct to be limited to 125,000 Nm3/h. Points included in OS 2009 are furthermore set forth table 1 on page 9 below. The column New Capacity in table 1 indicates the technical Capacity expansion steps identified by Energinet.dk Gastransmission and offered under OS The steps have been decided on the basis of technical parameters and are largely determined by constraints in the Danish Transmission System or Adjacent Transmission Systems. It will be the accumulated sum of Bids compared with the technical Capacity expansion steps that qualify a Point for expansion in Energinet.dk Gastransmission s investment planning. The Capacities are listed to provide the market with an understanding of the relation between Capacity expansion and new assets required. To some extent this also serves to explain the Capacity limits or steps offered. Sæby In the case of the new Point proposed in Sæby to connect to the offshore Skanled project, the Maximum Technical Capacity Limit (only entry Capacity is offered) is equal to the estimated Capacity from the connecting section of the Skanled project. Avedøre

5 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 5 Similarly, the new Avedøre interconnection Point is designed to facilitate the flow in the Baltic Pipe. If Baltic Pipe is built, Avedøre is expected to become a border Point between the Polish and Danish Transmission Systems, offering transport in both directions. Capacity through the Baltic Pipe may be increased through investments in new compressor stations on both sides, allowing a scaled stepwise increase as demand materialises. Unlike Sæby that is envisaged as an one-directional entry Point, Avedøre may experience flows in both directions, physically as commercially. In that aspect, it is important to note, that Energinet.dk Gastransmission will be delimited especially in terms of entry Capacity, by installation of compressor stations on the Polish side of the system, i.e. technical Capacity Limits will have to correspond to the lower of the Capacity offered on each side of the border Point. Dragør The existing interconnection to Sweden in Dragør is currently the only Entry Point for gas to the Swedish market. The current dependency on transit through Denmark may be challenged by volumes supplied through the planned Skanled project, but until that or other projects are realised, growth in the Swedish market must be accommodated by Capacity expansion in Dragør. Being designed in annex to the Danish Transmission System and without compressor stations and significant storages, the Swedish gas system is closely related to the Danish Transmission System. There is an interrelation between firm Capacity offered in Dragør and how much gas the Swedish system can receive. Currently, Energinet.dk Gastransmission has set firm exit Capacity in Dragør according to estimates of what the Swedish system can receive with present market conditions and pressure levels in Dragør. If changes to the Swedish system allows for increased transport, the firm Capacity level can be maintained/raised in Dragør, once a planned compressor station in Langeskov, Denmark is in operation. Energinet.dk Gastransmission may also be in position to offer significantly more Capacity to the Swedish market. Ellund The existing interconnection to German systems in Ellund can be expanded in increasing steps based on investments on both sides of the border. Necessarily, Capacity on each side of the border will have to correspond to the availability and possibilities of the systems and again Energinet.dk Gastransmission will eventually offer new Capacity up to the lower maximum limit on either side. Further exit Capacity in Ellund is assumed established by looping the pipeline Egtved-Ellund. However, expanding the entry Capacity in Ellund will require as the first step a pressure increase at the border (from expanding the compressor in Ellund or a compressor at the Danish side) and as the second step a looping of the pipeline Ellund-Egtved. Therefore, only a wish for substantial increase in entry Capacity will lead to increase of exit Capacity. Energinet.dk Gastransmission offers three expansion steps that are largely determined to fit various demand scenarios among which the maximum limit intends to secure sufficient Capacity in itself for the anticipated future market of Denmark and Sweden combined. From these steps various investments into separately distinguishable assets, compressor stations and looping of a pipeline section from the border to the centre of system are identified. 1.4 Economic Capacity Limits

6 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 6 Energinet.dk Gastransmission has decided to include Economic Capacity Limits to the description of the Points. These serve to indicate the level of Capacity needed to establish the economic justification of constructing the Point on the basis of Long-Term OS 2009 Capacity Agreements. The Economic Capacity Limits are signals between Energinet.dk Gastransmission and Participants that have special interest in specific Points. These signals are relevant for the development of Skanled and Baltic Pipe projects and for the potential expansion in the Points in Ellund and Dragør respectively. Figure 2: Economic Capacity Limits, KWh per hour 12,000,000 10,000,000 KWh/h 2 Min. tech. Limit Intermediate step Max. tech. limit Economic capacity limit 8,000,000 7,700,000 6,000,000 5,400,000 4,000,000 4,150,000 3,700,000 2,000,000 2,900,000 2,900,000 1,900,000 3,350,000 2,650,000 1,550, ,000 0 Sæby, Entry Avedøre, Entry Avedøre, Exit Dragør, entry Dragør, exit Ellund, Entry Ellund, exit

7 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 7 2. List of Points included in the OS 2009 Energinet.dk Gastransmission is inviting Participants to submit Bids for Capacity at the following Entry and Exit Points: Sæby: A. Entry Sæby (from Skanled offshore pipeline out of Norway); Avedøre: B1. Exit Avedøre (to the Baltic Pipe offshore interconnection to Poland); B2. Entry Avedøre (from Baltic Pipe); Dragør: C1. Exit Dragør (to Sweden); C2. Entry Dragør (from the Swedish transmission system). Ellund: D1. Entry Ellund (from the DEUDAN transmission system in Northern Germany); D2. Exit Ellund (to Germany). No other Points can be included in the OS Map 1: Planned Capacity expansion in OS 2009

8 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 8

9 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 9 Table 1: Points included in OS 2009 listed with existing capacities and potential new firm Capacity Point/project Implementation EIA and ESPOO approval Construction Operation Current capacity Announced by Energinet.dk Interruptible Firm Level 1 Level 2 Current New quality Project no. Route/location Status Year Year Nm 3 /h Nm 3 /h Nm 3 /h KWh/h 1 KWh/h 2 bcm/y Nm 3 /hour kwh/h 2 mcm/d bcm/y A Entry Sæby (from planned Skanled) KWh/Nm KWh/Nm 3 11 Pipeline (a) Sæby-Ll.Torup Expected Pipeline (b) Ll.Torup-Egtved Expected Total ,000 5,940, B2 Entry Avedøre (from Baltic Pipe) Conditioned by compressors in Niechorz & Goleniow, Poland Pipeline Baltic Pipe-Avedøre Expected Compressor (e) Avedøre Obtained Total ,000 4,125, B1 Exit Avedøre (to planned Baltic Pipe) Pipeline Baltic Pipe-Avedøre Expected Compressor (c) Egtved Obtained Compressor (d) Langeskov Obtained Compressor (e) Avedøre Obtained Total ,000 4,125, Total 1 1 Conditioned by reduced capacity at other points in the system 480,000 5,280, C1.a Exit Dragør (to existing Swedish transmission system) Compressor (d) Langeskov Obtained Compressor (f) Dragør Total, step ,000 74, ,000 3,055,500 2,750, ,000 1,375, Meter Station Expansion, Dragør MS Compressor (d) Langeskov Obtained Compressor (f) Dragør Compressor (c) Egtved Total, step ,000 74, ,000 3,055,500 2,750, ,000 2,750, Conditioned by reduced capacity at other points in the system, i.e. if Baltic Pipe is constructed current capacity is reduced to 125,000 Nm 3 /h C1.b Exit Dragør (to existing Swedish transmission system) Meter Station Expansion, Dragør MS Compressor (d) Langeskov Obtained Compressor (f) Dragør Compressor (c) Egtved Total ,000 74, ,000 1,527,750 1,375, ,000 2,750, Conditioned by reduced capacity at other points in the system, i.e. if Baltic Pipe is constructed current capacity is reduced to 125,000 Nm 3 /h C2 Entry Dragør (from Swedish transmission system) Compressor (f) Dragør Not initiated Total , ,000 2,200, D1 (DK/D) Entry Ellund (from existing DEUDAN) Compressor Ellund (DK/D) 1 Existing - - Total, step , , ,000 4,785, Pipeline (h) Ellund-Egtved Not initiated * * Could be possible from 2014 Total, step , , ,000 7,700, Compressor (d) Langeskov Not initiated * * Could be possible from 2014 Total, step , , ,000,000 11,000, Could be located on either side of Danish-German border D2 Exit Ellund (to existing DEUDAN) Pipeline (h) Egtved Ellund Not initiated Compressor Not initiated Total ,000 50, ,000 4,204,368 3,784, ,000 3,784, E Entry Nybro Pipeline Not planned Not initiated Compressor Not planned Not initiated Total ,350,000 16,499,700 14,850, Volume* 1 Available production capacity from Danish North Sea is expected to decline reducing the commercially available capacity in Ellund from 2015 latest - UGS Stenlille ,000 4,094,370 3,685, UGS Lille Torup ,000 4,094,370 3,685, New capacity Capacity in point Marginal new firm

10 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits Points related to Capacity expansions in the Danish Transmission System The following sub-sections contain a description of each Point, the Economical Capacity Limit, the Maximum Capacity Limit and include separate tables with the technical data for each Point. 3.1 Sæby Entry (from Skanled) Data sheet Sæby Expected available Economic Capacity Limit Maximum technical Capacity Limit Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Sæby, Entry ,150,000 5,940,000 Note: KWh is converted from m 3 at the expected future gas quality value of 11 KWh/m 3 The new Skanled pipeline is planned to be brought ashore at Sæby. Maximum entry Capacity is naturally limited by the dimension and pressures applying to the Skanled pipeline. The EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) approval process for the pipeline from Sæby to Lille Torup (pipeline a) is ongoing. However, a pipeline from Sæby to Lille Torup is not sufficient alone, as there is congestion in Energinet.dk s Gastransmission Transmission System between Lille Torup and Egtved (pipeline b) today. Therefore, Sæby entry Capacity beyond a few million m 3 /day requires a looping of the current 30 inch pipeline between Lille Torup and Egtved. Furthermore, a compressor station at Egtved (compressor c) may become necessary. This compressor station would be identical to the Egtved compressor station required in the Baltic Pipe expansion scenario. Moreover, a 30 inch looping of the pipeline to Egtved would allow Lille Torup to withdraw additional volumes, making this pipeline dimension the most viable scenario. Skanled offers to diversify supply in Denmark and consequently benefit security of supply and market development in the Danish Transmission System. Skanled can serve to interconnect Norwegian, Swedish, Danish, Polish and German gas markets. Moreover, Skanled can ensure new transit income when the present income from North Sea gas to Germany decreases and a greater physical robustness in the northern part of the Danish Transmission System.

11 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 11 Energinet.dk Gastransmission is therefore a partner in Skanled participating with a 10 per cent ownership share and a 5 per cent (1 million m 3 /day/year) Capacity reservation (equivalent to 460,000 kwh/h/y). However, Energinet.dk Gastransmission cannot determine the economics of realising Skanled and the Sæby entry Point without an open season investment signal from the shippers on the economics involved. 3.2 Avedøre Exit (to Baltic Pipe) Data sheet Avedøre Economic Expected available, Capacity Limit, Maximum technical Capacity Limit, Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Avedøre, Exit ,900,000 4,125,000 Avedøre, Exit High 3,700,000 5,280,000 Note: KWh/m 3 = 11 Avedøre, Exit High is conditioned by low Capacity reservations at other Points (particular in Dragør) Exit Capacity at Avedøre is conditional on the realisation of Baltic Pipe. Exit Capacity for Baltic Pipe at Avedøre requires the construction of a pipeline extension of 2 km and 3 compressor stations at Egtved (compressor c), Langeskov (d) and Avedøre (e). Energinet.dk Gastransmission already has the necessary EIA approvals for the 3 compressor stations at the given locations. The size of the compressor stations (compressors d and e) may vary depending on requested Avedøre Exit Capacity and Dragør Exit Capacity. The compressor stations at Egtved and Langeskov can be used to ship additional gas eastward in the Danish Transmission System and can supply Dragør Exit and Avedøre Exit as well as the Exit Zone. The Capacity may also be increased if the Stenlille Gas Storage Facility increases its withdrawal rates. The Baltic Pipe can mean both diversity of supply and the possibility of new transit income. Baltic Pipe is therefore attractive both from a security of supply perspective, a market development perspective and a transit income perspective. Energinet.dk Gastransmission has accordingly decided to include the Avedøre compressor (compressor e) in the expansion scenario for the Danish Transmission System.

12 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits Avedøre Entry (from Baltic Pipe) Data sheet Avedøre Economic Expected available, Capacity Limit, Maximum technical Capacity Limit, Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Avedøre, Entry ,900,000 4,125,000 Note: KWh/m 3 = 11 The maximum Capacity level is conditioned by construction of compressor stations in Niechorze & Goleniow, Poland The Entry Capacity at Avedøre is conditioned on the realisation of the Baltic Pipe offshore interconnector to Poland. A new Entry Point at Avedøre for a contemplated Baltic Pipe from Poland requires investments in approximately 260 km of pipeline to connect the existing Danish Transmission System with Baltic Pipe in a preselected location at Avedøre as well as a compressor station (e) also at Avedøre. The Baltic Pipe pipeline is expected to be a separate system and thus subject to the open season announced by national transmission system operator, Gaz System. The compressor station at Avedøre and a new connection to the Danish Transmission System is planned to be part of the Danish Transmission System. The investments required to make Entry Capacity available at Avedøre are to some extent identical to the investments required for Avedøre Exit Capacity (a 2 km pipeline expansion and a compressor station at Avedøre). Open season demand for Exit Capacity at Avedøre is consequently expected to support the case for constructing Avedøre Entry Capacity. Import of gas to the Danish market through the Baltic Pipe could be feasible once the Baltic Pipe is constructed, and the Polish counterpart reports that investments on the Polish side are required to realise a significant reverse gas flow from Poland to Denmark. Energinet.dk Gastransmission has secured an EIA approval for a compressor station at Avedøre. It is expected that OS 2009 Capacity at Avedøre Entry can be made available from 2013, if Gaz System is successful with its open season process and the EIA and Espoo processes required for Baltic Pipe.

13 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits Dragør Entry (from Sweden) Data sheet Dragør Expected available, Economic Capacity Limit, Maximum technical Capacity Limit, Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Dragør, Entry ,550,000 2,200,000 Note: KWh/m 3 = 11 Firm Entry Capacity at Dragør will most likely require the construction of a compressor station (f) on the Swedish or Danish side of the border Point. Energinet.dk Gastransmission and Swedegas have not decided on who should construct such compressor station nor secured the necessary EIA approvals or made any investigation into the viability of such an approval at this Point in time. Firm Entry Capacity at Dragør only seems relevant if Skanled is realised and it supplies volumes exceeding the Swedish gas market s own demand. 3.5 Dragør Exit (to Sweden) Data sheet Dragør Expected available, Economic Capacity Limit, Maximum technical Capacity Limit, Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Dragør, Exit ,000 1,375,000 Dragør, Exit ,900,000 2,750,000 Note: KWh/m 3 = 11 The Swedish market has for more than 20 years contributed to the economics and the development of the Danish market with Swedish demand and Swedish gas market players. Today, the

14 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 14 Swedish market is close to 100 per cent dependent on physical deliveries and storage Capacity from Denmark. The Swedish market is therefore a prioritised market for Energinet.dk Gastransmission. However, Energinet.dk Gastransmission must also take into account that the future Swedish market may be supplied partly or wholly by the Skanled pipeline from the Norwegian shelf. Current Firm Capacity at Dragør is 3,055,000 kwh/h at 55 bar at the current gas quality. Increased volumes can be delivered on interruptible terms. If Avedøre Exit for Baltic Pipe is not constructed, the current Firm Exit Capacity at Dragør can be increased by means of a compressor in Langeskov (d) and if necessary by a compressor nearby Dragør (f). The Langeskov compressor station is identical to the compressor station required for supplying Exit Capacity at Avedøre for Baltic Pipe. If Avedøre Exit for Baltic Pipe is constructed, the current pressure at Dragør is expected to be reduced to 45 bar meaning that the current Firm Capacity at Dragør will be decreased by 50 per cent to 1,527,500 kwh/h. Also in this case, the Capacity can be increased by means of a compressor station in Dragør. The above described relation to Avedøre Exit means that in the Investment Combinations which include Avedøre Entry/Exit for Baltic Pipe, the current Capacity is reduced to 1,527,500 kwh/h. In the Investment Combinations without Avedøre Entry/Exit for Baltic Pipe the current Firm Capacity is maintained. The possible expansion under OS 2009 is in all Investment Combinations which included Dragør 3,055,000 kwh/h. Energinet.dk Gastransmission has secured an EIA approval for a compressor station at Langeskov. Neither Energinet.dk Gastransmission nor Swedegas has an EIA approval for a compressor station near Dragør. 3.6 Ellund Entry (from DEUDAN) Data sheet Ellund Economic Expected available, Capacity Limit, Maximum technical Capacity Limit, Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Ellund, Entry Step ,350,000 4,785,000 Step * 5,400,000 7,700,000 Step * 7,700,000 11,000,000 Notes: KWh/m 3 = 11 * Could come into operation already from 2014

15 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 15 Currently, no Firm Entry Capacity at Ellund is offered by Energinet.dk Gastransmission to the Shippers as the delivery pressure at the border Point is insufficient for gas to physically enter the Danish Transmission System. Thus, offering Firm Entry Capacity at Ellund requires an upgrade of the German Transmission System or the construction of a compressor station on the Danish side of the border (both are named compressor g in the remaining text) and a reinforcement of the Danish Transmission System. The reason why a reinforcement of the Danish Transmission System is required is that the existing pipe from Ellund to Egtved is narrower than the Nybro Egtved pipe and that deliveries from Ellund thus cannot provide the same pressure in Egtved as deliveries in Nybro. Reinforcement with e.g. a Langeskov compressor or an Egtved-Ellund pipeline doubling is not expected to be available before 2013 and 2015 respectively. However, Interruptible Capacity which is expected to be available can be made physically available before 2013 with an upgrade of the existing DEUDAN system. Furthermore, Energinet.dk Gastransmission has reserved a piece of land for a compressor station on the Danish side of Ellund, and Energinet.dk Gastransmission has made the first initial prospect studies. An EIA approval process has not been initiated yet. The expectation is that such compressor station can not be ready prior to Realisation of compression at the Danish side of Ellund or in Ellund will pave the way for realisation of a Step 1 expansion. Gasunie Deutschland is evaluating if provision of capacities for Step 1 can be made available already from A future Danish-Swedish reliance on import entirely from Ellund will require a looping of the pipeline between Ellund and Egtved (pipeline h). The time frame for this expansion scenario is The demand for northbound Ellund Entry Capacity has in recent years exceeded both the current 0 Capacity, the previous limited Firm Capacity, the future Capacity now mentioned on Gasunie Deutschland s website and the 1,556,335 kwh/h (136,521 m³/h) Capacity requested by 3 market players in E.ON Gastransmission's recent open season. Gasunie Deutschland and Gas Transport Services market screening in November 2008 in regard to the integrated Gasunie open season showed an interest in a 7,500,000 KWh/h northbound capacity and a smaller southbound capacity. Thus, demand for northbound Ellund Capacity is substantiated. Even though the Shippers and Energinet.dk Gastransmission are interested in securing a northbound Ellund Entry Capacity, and that Gasunie Deutschland and Energinet.dk Gastransmission will try to coordinate their open season time schedules, it should be noted that Energinet.dk Gastransmission still has not agreed on a viable solution with regard to volumes and pressures with its German counterpart TSOs (DONG Energy Pipelines, Gasunie Deutschland & E.ON Gastransport) and that no decision regarding the required Langeskov compressor (d) or a looping of the Ellund- Egtved pipeline has been taken yet. 3.7 Ellund Exit (to DEUDAN)

16 Appendix 1: Points and Capacity Limits 16 Data sheet Ellund Economic Expected available, Capacity Limit, Maximum technical Capacity Limit, Name of Point Year kwh/h kwh/h Ellund, Exit ,650,000 3,784,000 Note: KWh/m 3 = 11 The current Firm Exit Capacity at Ellund is 4,200,000 kwh/h. The expansion of Firm Capacity at Ellund Exit requires a compressor station at Egtved (c) and a looping of the Ellund-Egtved pipeline (h). If Skanled and/or Baltic Pipe is realised, current firm Capacity exit Ellund may drop due to pressure loss at Egtved and the introduction of gas with a lower calorific value. Energinet.dk Gastransmission is currently expecting a decline in demand for exit Ellund Capacity due to the reduced forecast for the Danish North Sea deliveries. However, new deliveries from, for instance, Skanled or Baltic Pipe may change that prospect.