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1 Daily Commodity Market Buzz as on Thursday, October 16, 2014 Item Open High Low Close % Cng Trend Market Review MCX Gold MCX Silver Spot Gold $ Spot Silver $ MCX Crude MCX Natural Gas Spot Crude $ Spot Nat.Gas $ MCX Copper MCX Nickel MCX Zinc MCX Lead MCX Aluminium LME Copper LME Nickel LME Zinc LME Lead LME Aluminium Bullion Energy Base Metals Bullion Bullion gains as investor appetite for riskier assets eased amid global growth worries, while a softer dollar also underpinned prices of the metal. Investors were spooked after U.S. retail sales declined in September as consumers pulled back on spending for a range of items. Energy Crude oil dropped as investors piled on to their short positions in anticipation of lower prices amid speculation the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support the market. Natural gas dropped after updated weather-forecasting models scaled back on the intensity of a U.S. cool snap, leaving investors to conclude demand for heating will be less than once anticipated. Base Metals Forex Dollar Index EURUSD GBPUSD USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Base metals prices ended with gains boosted by technical buying after China reaffirmed plans to step up infrastructure projects to support growth, following robust September trade data. China posted a surprisingly strong trade performance in September, soothing worries over a slowdown in the world's top metals user. Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 1

2 MCX Gold Dec Gold trading range for the day is Gold gains as investor appetite for riskier assets eased amid global growth worries, while a softer dollar also underpinned prices of the metal. Investors were spooked after U.S. retail sales declined in September as consumers pulled back on spending for a range of items. SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 2.09 tonnes i.e. 0.27% to tonnes from tonnes. Gold imports in India nearly doubled in September from August to $3.75 billion, ahead of the country's wedding and festival season. BUY GOLD SL TGT MCX Gold settled up 1.04% at on Tuesday while Indian market was closed on Wednesday Comex Gold gaine to closed above $1240 as global equities plunged and U.S. Treasuries prices surged following disappointing U.S. data, sparking economic fears and lifting bullion's safe-haven appeal. The precious metal's failure to extend its rally despite heightened global market volatility, however, suggested gold prices could pull back in the near term. Wall Street dived after the U.S. government said retail sales slipped in September and producer prices fell, worrisome signals on the economy's health that heightened financial market worries over faltering global growth. Each of the major stock indexes had fallen as much as 3 percent, while U.S. crude futures dropped to just a cent above $80 a barrel. The S&P 500 stock index was last 1.9 percent lower, and U.S. crude also trimmed losses. Bullion earlier rose to less than $1 below key resistance at $1,250 an ounce before sharply paring gains. Gold has struggled for direction at a time of rising concerns over the health of the global economy. Economic data from Europe has remained weak and a worsethan-expected inflation reading from China weighed on gold, an inflation hedge. Also US Treasuries jumped on Wednesday, with 30-year bond prices touching a near two-year high. The dollar's slide to a three-week low against the euro on Wednesday helped gold. Meanwhile Gold took some support from physical markets. Gold imports in India, the world's second-biggest consumer of the metal, nearly doubled in September from August to $3.75 billion, ahead of the country's wedding and festival season. Technically market is under fresh buying and getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 27347, a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 2

3 MCX Silver Dec Silver trading range for the day is Silver rose as global equities plunged and U.S. Treasuries prices surged following disappointing U.S. data, sparking economic fears. Weak U.S. data could prompt the Fed to delay a hike in interest rates, a potential boost for non-interest-bearing bullion. Economic data from Europe has remained weak and a worse-than-expected inflation reading from China limited the upside for bullion. The disappointing data followed data from China that showed a drop in China's inflation rate to a five-year low. BUY SILVER SL TGT MCX Silver settled up 1.12% at ended higher for a third straight session on Tuesday, While Yesterday Comex Silver gained holding key support of $17 as the dollar slipped on some disappointing economic data from the U.S. with investors continuing to seek the safe haven appeal of the precious metal, amid an alarming drop in global stocks and a flood of gloomy economic forecast. In some soft economic news from the U.S., a Commerce Department report showed retail sales to have dropped more than anticipated in September, partly reflecting the recent drop in gasoline prices. A Labor Department report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. producer prices in September, reflecting lower prices for food and energy. Meanwhile, business activity in the New York manufacturing sector grew at a substantially slower rate in October, report showed Wednesday. The prospect of U.S. interest rate hikes has some traders fretting over a slowdown here as well. This week, bullion ended higher with investors turning to the precious metal for its safe haven appeal even as the dollar trended higher. As well yesterday, Europe's economic engine Germany projected some anemic growth for the next two years. On the economic front, data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed retail sales to have dropped by a more than expected 0.3 percent in September. Meanwhile, a report from the Labor Department showed producer prices in the U.S. to have unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percent in September, after coming in unchanged in August. Technically market is under short covering and getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39030, a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 3

4 MCX Crudeoil Oct Crudeoil trading range for the day is Crude oil dropped as investors piled on to their short positions in anticipation of lower prices amid speculation OPEC will not cut output. Core members of the OPEC appear to be focused on fighting for market share rather than on cutting production to shore up prices. Today crude oil inventories: Exp: 2.3M Prev: 5.0B. Actual is at 8.30PM Iran said it could live with lower oil prices, joining the chorus of similar signals from core OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. SELL CRUDE L 5195 SL ABV 5240 TGT MCX (STBT) Crudeoil settled down -1.86% at 5122 ahead of the official inventory data from the U.S. EIA. Prices were impacted on some disappointing economic data from the U.S. amid rising concerns over the health of the global economy after a flood of gloomy economic forecast. Yesterday, Crude oil futures plummeted near $80 a barrel for the first time in four years amid mounting concerns over global demand growth outlook. Saudi Arabia is reportedly content to let prices fall in order to lessen the appeal of alternative fuels and weaken non-opec competition. The IEA on Tuesday predicted a modest rise in global demand in 2015, further pressuring prices. In some soft economic news from the U.S., a Commerce Department report showed retail sales to have dropped more than anticipated in Sept, partly reflecting the recent drop in gasoline prices. Additionally, a Labor Department report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. producer prices in Sept, reflecting lower prices for food and energy. Meanwhile, business activity in the New York manufacturing sector grew at a substantially slower rate in October, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report showed Wednesday. For the last three years, the incipient imbalance between supply and demand was masked by a series of one-off supply interruptions which removed enough crude from the market to offset rising shale output. Also US sanctions on Iran coupled with civil wars and unrest in Libya, South Sudan, Syria and Iraq all helped conceal the extent to which the market was fundamentally oversupplied. Technically market is getting support at 5070 and below same could see a test of 5017 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5208, a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 4

5 MCX Copper Nov Copper trading range for the day is Copper gains supported by a growing consensus that a market surplus will be delayed until next year, although a stronger dollar pressured prices. China posted a surprisingly strong trade performance in September, soothing worries over a slowdown in the world's top metals user. China's copper imports surged 14.7 percent from the previous month in September, hitting a 5-month high Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at mt that is up by 2925mt. SELL COPPER NOV BELOW 418 SL 421 TGT MCX Copper settled up 2% at on Tuesday, while LME Copper dropped sharply on Wednesday after data showed that Chinese inflation in September slowed more than expected, underlining concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy. LME three-month copper plunged by 2.6% to USD 6,620/mt Wednesday. China s CPI growth fell to 1.6% YoY in September, shy of the expected 1.7% increase and its lowest since January Food and non-food prices rose 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively, while prices increased 1.4% for consumer goods and 2.3% for services. Meanwhile, China s PPI dropped 1.8% YoY in September, a bigger fall than the estimated 1.6% and down for a 31st month in a row, and fell 0.4% from August. The purchasing prices for inputs decreased 1.9% YoY and 0.4% MoM. Also NY Fed manufacturing index for October dipped to 6.17, a low last seen in April 2014, with the sub-index for new orders down to a refreshed low of since April, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. US retail sales contracted 0.3% in September, well below expectations and August s reading. The increase in employment demand failed to boost sales in a sign that consumer demand is weakening. US PPI fell 0.1% in September, down for the first time since August 2013 and missing the forecast 0.1% rise. The US dollar index tumbled 1.16%, but the euro spiked 1.41% against the greenback. While Base metals prices are expected to rebound slightly on Thursday, but are unlikely to recover losses with the absence of any bullish news. Technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of 409 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 425.6, a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 5

6 MCX Nickel Oct Nickel trading range for the day is Nickel settled down as market concerns deteriorating after Germany also lowered its growth target in the following two years. Euro zone industrial output in August slid 1.8%, compared to a 1.6% drop expected and a 1.6% growth in July. The Commerce Department is expected to report that retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, after rising 0.6% in August. Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at mt that is up by 1824mt. SELL NICKEL 1010 SL 1025 TGT MCX Nickel settled down -0.01% at 1004 as market concerns deteriorating after Germany also lowered its growth target in the following two years. Germany lowered its growth forecast this year to 1.2%, and ZEW's economic indicators for the euro zone and Germany weakened further. Germany's government bond yields hit a record low, causing market pessimism to grow. China s September CPI rose 1.6%, 0.4 percentage point lower than August s; PPI was down 1.8% YoY, and the drop expanded 0.6 percentage point compared to August. Poor economic indicators from China fueled market anticipation that China may push stimulus measures. The PBOC executed USD 20 billion in 14-day repurchasing yesterday at a rate of 3.4%, 10 basis points lower than the last time and hitting a record low in 3.5 years. The PBOC had lowered interest rate for 14-day repurchasing 20 basis points to 3.5% September 18. The bank resumed 14-day repurchasing July 31 at a rate 10 basis lower than previously, and announced target interest rate cut August 27. That means the bank acted to reduce financing costs, which will help inspire the market. ZEW's October economic climate index for Germany fell to -3.6, much lower than market expectations and September's. Moreover, Germany's investor confidence index also dropped to a two-year low. Euro zone industrial output in August slid 1.8%, compared to a 1.6% drop expected and a 1.6% growth in July. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.35% to settled at 7692 while prices down -0.1 rupee, now Nickel is getting support at 996 and below same could see a test of 987 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 6

7 MCX Zinc Oct Zinc trading range for the day is Zinc prices gained boosted by technical buying after China reaffirmed plans to step up infrastructure projects to support growth. China's annual consumer inflation slowed more than expected to 1.6 percent in September, a level not seen since January 2010 Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 4737 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at mt that is down by -75mt. SELL ZINC OCT BELOW SL TGT MCX Zinc settled up 1.41% at boosted by technical buying after China reaffirmed plans to step up infrastructure projects to support growth. UK's inflation rate released overnight slowed, and Germany's October economic sentiment index also hit a two-year low. Germany also lowered its growth target in the following two years. This caused market concerns over deteriorating European economy to growth. But the PBOC lowered repurchase rate by 10 basis points again. China s consumer price index (CPI) growth fell to 1.6% YoY in September, shy of the expected 1.7% increase and its lowest since January Food and non-food prices rose 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively, while prices increased 1.4% for consumer goods and 2.3% for services. Meanwhile, China s producer price index (PPI) dropped 1.8% YoY in September, a bigger fall than the estimated 1.6% and down for a 31st month in a row, and fell 0.4% from August. The purchasing prices for inputs decreased 1.9% YoY and 0.4% MoM. NY Fed manufacturing index for October dipped to 6.17, a low last seen in April 2014, with the sub-index for new orders down to a refreshed low of since April, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. US retail sales contracted 0.3% in September, well below expectations and August s reading. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.03% to settled at 7435 while prices up 2 rupee, now Zinc is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 144.9, a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 7

8 MCX Aluminium Oct Aluminium trading range for the day is Aluminium prices gained as support seen after China's central bank cut short-term borrowing cost for banks. Poor economic indicators from China fueled market anticipation that China may push stimulus measures Aluminium daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 1930 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Aluminium at LME was at mt that is down by -4450mt. SELL ALUMINIUM OCT BELOW SL TGT MCX Aluminium settled up 0.93% at as support seen after China's central bank cut short-term borrowing cost for banks. Germany s economic sentiment deteriorated in October and the German government cuts its economic growth forecast for this year and next. The People s Bank of China launched RMB 20 billion of 14-day repurchase agreement, with auction rate at 3.4%, down 10 basis points. This lower auction rate was seen as a substitute of interest rate cut, but it also dashed hope for any a blanket rate cut in the short term. Germany s economic sentiment for October fell to -3.6%, down below zero for the first time since The euro zone industrial output also declined in August. In response, Germany s Economy Ministry lowered forecast of the country s GDP growth this year from 1.8% to 1.2%, and slashed projection for 2015 from 2% to 1.3%, citing geopolitical crisis and slowdown in global growth China s consumer price index (CPI) growth fell to 1.6% YoY in September, shy of the expected 1.7% increase and its lowest since January Food and non-food prices rose 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively, while prices increased 1.4% for consumer goods and 2.3% for services. Rusal had cut its aluminum output by 324,000 mt in The company also aims to further reduce its aluminum production by another 323,000 mt this year. Similar production cuts were implemented by Alcoa through closure of its smelters in Italy, Australia and Brazil. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.68% to settled at 5127 while prices up 1.1 rupee, now Aluminium is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 119.4, a move above could see prices testing Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 8

9 Time Zone Data Fore. Prev. Commodity Months Spread Remark 1:30pm EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.24B 6.86B 2:30pm EUR Final CPI y/y :30pm EUR Final Core CPI y/y Dec MCX Gold 2:30pm EUR Trade Balance 13.5B 12.2B 2014 Feb :30pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks :00pm USD Unemployment Claims 286K 287K 6:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate :45pm USD Industrial Production m/m :30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index :30pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks Dec Mar MCX Silver 7:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index :00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 91B 105B 8:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.3M 5.0M COMMODITY COPPER NICKEL ZINC ALUMINIUM LEAD NET CHANGE Economical Data LME Daily Stock MCX Crude Oct 2014 MCX Copper Nov 2014 Daily Spread Oppurtunity Nov Feb Spread between Gold DEC & FEB contracts yesterday ended at Rs.164, we have seen yesterday Gold future had traded in a positive zone and settled 1.04% up. Spread between Silver DEC & MAR contracts yesterday ended at Rs.671, we have seen yesterday Silver future had traded in a positive zone and settled 1.12% up. Spread between Crude oil OCT & NOV contracts yesterday ended at Rs.-8, we have seen yesterday Crude oil future had traded in a negative zone and settled -1.86% down. Spread between Copper NOV & FEB contracts yesterday ended at Rs.5.65, we have seen yesterday Copper future had traded in a positive zone and settled 2% up. MCX Nickel Oct 2014 Nov Spread between Nickel OCT & NOV contracts yesterday ended at Rs.7.2, we have seen yesterday Nickel future had traded in a negative zone and settled -0.01% down. Date : Thursday, October 16, Page No : 8

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