Winning the Senate with a middle class reform agenda. November 9, 2015

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1 Winning the Senate with a middle class reform agenda November 9, 2015

2 Methodology Battleground Survey of 1600 Likely 2016 Voters in 4 States with Competitive Senate Seats. This survey took place October Respondents who voted in the 2012 election or registered since were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample= +/-3.2 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=400) of Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/-4.9 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Forty-four percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full American electorate. 1

3 KEY FINDINGS 2

4 Key Findings A post-2016 Democratic Senate majority seems within reach as Democratic candidates are 6 points up in Colorado (Democratic hold), 5 points ahead of a Republican incumbent in Wisconsin (a Democratic pick up) and knotted in Ohio and Florida (both Democratic pick up states). Democratic opportunity springs from a Republican party that has grown apart from the country culturally and demographically, as the RAE unmarried women, youth and people of color now make up a majority or near majority of the vote in these states. Democrats face two challenges, however: (1) insufficient engagement, particularly among unmarried women and millennials; (2) insufficient support compared to prior levels among the RAE, particularly unmarried women. To take advantage of this opportunity, Democrats need to: Run unambiguously on middle class reform money and government message and agenda like the one tested in this poll; Increase the turnout of unmarried women and millennials; Improve the margin among unmarried women and white working class women, who are increasingly open to voting for Democrats; Brand the tarnished GOP that is too partisan for these times. 3

5 WINNING THE U.S. SENATE 4

6 Democrats hold good lead in Colorado and Wisconsin and other states tied I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Senate in 2016, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you be voting for [Democratic incumbent/candidate] or [Republican incumbent/candidate]? Dem Candidate Rep Michael Scott Patrick David Total Candidate Bennet Colorado Tipton Murphy Florida Jolly Strickland Ohio Portman Feingold Wisconsin Battleground Battleground Colorado Florida Ohio Wisconsin Ted Rob Russ Ron Johnson 5

7 Bennet has strong job approval, while Portman and Johnson very vulnerable Do you approve or disapprove of the way (Senate Incumbent) is handling (His/Her) job as a member of the U.S. Senate? Approve Disapprove Total Bennet (D) - CO Rubio (R) - FL Portman (R) - OH Johnson (R) - WI 6

8 Democratic Senate candidates more popular than opponents Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 48.5 Net: +1 Mean: 44.8 Net: -4 Mean: 49.6 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 43.1 Mean: 36.7 Mean: 44.3 Mean: 49.0 Mean: 47.2 Net: +4 Net: -6 Net: -12 Net: -3 Net: +3 Net: -- Mean: 51.7 Net: Mean: 43.8 Net: -7 Dem Cand Rep Cand Michael Bennet (D) Scott Tipton (R) Patrick Murphy (D) David Jolly (R) Ted Strickland (D) Rob Portman (R) Russ Feingold (D) Ron Johnson (R) Battleground Colorado Florida Ohio Wisconsin 7

9 But Republicans much more motivated than RAE and Millennials How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. % 10 - Extremely Interested

10 Democrats held down by weak unmarried women vote in GOP-held seats How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. Net Unmarried Women Dem Rep Pres Pres Senate 2012 Pres Pres Senate 2012 Pres Pres Senate 2012 Pres Pres Senate COLORADO FLORIDA OHIO WISCONSIN Note: 2012 data from NYT exit polls 9

11 Rising American Electorate poised to play bigger role in Senate outcome % RAE in 2012 % RAE in Battleground Colorado Florida Ohio Wisconsin Note: The RAE in 2016 is defined at millennials, minorities and unmarried women. 10

12 POTENTIAL TO BRAND A TARNISHED REPUBLICAN PARTY 11

13 McConnell and the Republican Congress viewed with disdain Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 34.9 Mean: 36.0 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 41.9 Mean: 49.2 Mean: 48.6 Mean: 45.4 Net: -30 Net: -31 Net: -15 Net: Net: +3 Net: Mitch McConnell The GOP Congress GOP Party Paul Ryan Barack Obama Dem Party 12

14 Clinton has the edge over Trump in battleground I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton Trump Total Battleground Colorado Florida Ohio Wisconsin 13

15 Republicans seen as more partisan and extreme Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements describing why people are disturbed with what is happening with the two political parties today. Tell me whether you agree more with the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement, even if neither is exactly right. The country is in such need of practical solutions, but the Republicans who control the House and Senate and those running for president have proposed over 3 trillion dollars of more tax cuts for the very richest, oppose any increase in the minimum wage and say the wage gap for women is exaggerated. They propose deporting 12 million undocumented immigrants. They want to shut the federal government down again in order to stop funding for Planned Parenthood. They have refused to fund education and basic repair of our highways and bridges. And they are still trying to repeal the new health care law 5 years after it passed and are now proposing to cut even Social Security benefits. They are just too partisan for these times. Strong Strong OR The country is in such need of practical solutions, but for President Obama and the Democratic candidates, their only answer to our problems is more government. They continue to support Obamacare, even though it costs us 2.5 million jobs and will contribute one billion dollars to the deficit and increases health care costs for most families. They support an open-border policy and amnesty for illegal immigrants which will cost taxpayers on average over twenty-four thousand dollars in government benefits per immigrant household. Barack Obama is on pace to rack up more big government spending and more debt than all the previous presidents combined, over 7 trillion dollars and growing. They are just too partisan for these times

16 Republicans own the partisan dysfunction in Ohio and Wisconsin Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements describing why people are disturbed with what is happening with the two political parties today. Tell me whether you agree more with the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement, even if neither is exactly right. Reps too partisan strongly Dems too partisan strongly Battleground Colorado Florida Ohio Wisconsin 15

17 CLIMATE AND ISSUES 16

18 Strong feeling country on wrong track Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Total Colorado Florida Ohio Wisconsin 17

19 Democratic agenda standouts: protect Social Security, affordable college, an economy that puts the middle class before trickle down When you think back on this statement, which TWO of the following are the most important to you? Protect Social Security against any cuts in benefits Make college affordable by getting rid of student debt We need an economy that works for the middle class, not more trickle-down economics Audit the federal gov., simplify the tax code for middle class, eliminate $1 trillion in special interest subsidies Let's level the playing field for the middle class again Top 1 percent/ceos are using money & lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you Help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women By increasing taxes for the richest 1 percent, we can give breaks to companies that create American jobs Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling We should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donations Invest in infrastructure to modernize our country Ensure more credit and help for small businesses and independent contractors We must get behind an agenda for the hardworking and families We need to made sure taxpayers get their money's worth

20 Social Security, equal pay and college affordability key to base and white working class voters When you think back on this statement, which TWO of the following are the most important to you? White Unmarried Women White Non-College Women Millennials Protect Social Security against cuts 27 Protect Social Security against cuts 30 College affordable, rid of student debt 33 Equal pay, paid leave, childare 24 College affordable, rid of student debt 22 Equal pay, paid leave, childare 24 An economy for the middle class, no more trickle-down 20 Equal pay, paid leave, childare 21 An economy for the middle class, no more trickle-down 22 College affordable, rid of student debt 19 An economy for the middle class, no more trickle-down 20 Level the playing field for the middle class again 21 Audit gov., simplify tax code, end special interest subsidies 17 Audit gov., simplify tax code, end special interest subsidies 20 Raises taxes on the 1%, breaks to companies creating US jobs 18 Jobs don't pay enough to live on, families & biz struggle 17 Level the playing field for the middle class again 16 Jobs don't pay enough to live on, families & biz struggle 17 19

21 BIG NEW ROLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS REFORM MESSAGES 20

22 The middle class reform money and reform government agendas Now I am going to read you something [Democratic incumbent /candidate] Is saying about the country and what needs to be done to make things better. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about [Democratic incumbent /candidate], somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Democratic Middle Class Money Agenda We need an economy that works for the middle class, not more trickle-down economics. Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet the top 1 percent and CEOs are using money and lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. Well, we need to made sure taxpayers get their money's worth. We should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donations. Then, we must get behind an agenda for the hardworking and families. Make college affordable by getting rid of student debt; help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women; protect Social Security against any cuts in benefits; and ensure more credit and help for small businesses and independent contractors. By increasing taxes for the richest 1 percent, we can give breaks to companies that create American jobs and invest in infrastructure to modernize our country. Let's level the playing field for the middle class again. Democratic Middle Class Government Agenda We need an economy that works for the middle class, not more trickle-down economics. Today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet the top 1 percent and CEOs are using money and lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. Well, we need to made sure taxpayers get their money's worth. We should start by auditing the entire federal government to root out waste, simplifying the tax code for low income and middle class families and eliminate 1 trillion dollars of special interest breaks and subsidies. Then, we must get behind an agenda for the hardworking and families. Make college affordable by getting rid of student debt; help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women; protect Social Security against any cuts in benefits; and ensure more credit and help for small businesses and independent contractors. By increasing taxes for the richest 1 percent, we can give breaks to companies that create American jobs and invest in infrastructure to modernize our country. Let's level the playing field for the middle class again. 21

23 Broad base groups favor money reform, swing groups favor gov. reform Now I am going to read you something [Democratic incumbent /candidate] is saying about the country and what needs to be done to make things better. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about [Democratic incumbent /candidate], somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Republican held states Much more positive Dem Money Dem Gov. Dem Money Dem Gov. Dem Money Dem Gov. Dem Money Dem Gov. RAE Millennials Independents White Non-College Democratic Base Groups Swing Groups 22

24 Republican profiles Now I am going to read you a description of one of the candidates for U.S. Senator. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about [Republican Candidate], somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. (FLORIDA) David Jolly is an Attorney, Republican congressman from Pinellas County running for U.S. Senator. Much more positive As congressman, he has stood up for our nation's veterans and fought for emergency legislation to improve veteran care, increase staff at VA-facilities and give our veterans private sector options. He also worked for the local Florida economy, working on issues such as flood insurance and habitat protection. He has been a leader in common sense legislation to reduce our total tax burden and reduce our national debt. As a candidate for Senate, he says he is a conservative who gets results, fighting to keep Washington out of our classrooms, keep Washington red tape out of our small businesses, and fix border security laws that do not work. He says he will not accept a limp economy and a failed foreign policy that leaves us vulnerable. He is a principled conservative who believes in the sanctity of human life and the sacred protection of our Constitutional rights (OHIO) Rob Portman is the current Republican U.S. Senator from Ohio. After 12 years representing Southwest Ohio in Congress, Rob served in two cabinet level positions in the Bush Administration, came home for 3 years, and then was elected to the Senate in Portman built a reputation in the Senate as a conservative who gets things done. Portman has an A rating from the NRA and a 100% rating from National Right to Life and introduced his own legislation to protect the unborn. In the Senate, Rob has taken the lead in fighting against President Obama's excessive spending. Portman supports a Balanced Budget Amendment, and he persuaded the entire Republican caucus to support his pro-growth Senate Republican Jobs Plan. Despite the gridlock in Congress, Portman has had 25 of his bills signed into law, including legislation to help combat drug abuse, to help stop human trafficking, to stop waste and fraud in government spending and to reform federal worker retraining programs so they work better for Ohio (WISCONSIN) Ron Johnson is the current Republican U.S. Senator from Wisconsin. He worked his way through school, starting his first his first tax-paying job as a dishwasher at the age of 15, earned an M-B-A and started a business in Oshkosh. In 2010, alarmed by the continued growth of government as embodied by Obamacare, Johnson ran for the United States Senate, defeating liberal icon Russ Feingold. Ron truly is a citizen legislator ready to work with anyone who is willing to address the realities of America's spending, federal debt, and economy. He says we are in a global economy and to compete, we need a more competitive tax system that rewards innovation and hard work, not access to politicians. He believes we face a very distinct choice between greater freedom and prosperity or more government control of our businesses and lives

25 Middle class government reform strongest in FL & OH, but money reform in Wisconsin Now I am going to read you a description of one of the candidates for U.S. Senator. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about [the Democratic Candidate/Republican Candidate ], somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Much more positive Somewhat more positive Rep Jolly Profile Dem Money Dem Gov. Rep Portman Profile Dem Money Dem Gov. Rep Johnson Profile Dem Money Dem Gov. Florida Ohio Wisconsin 24

26 Middle class money reform has intensity edge in Colorado Now I am going to read you a description of one of the candidates for U.S. Senator. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Michael Bennet, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Bennet Democratic Profile Michael Bennet is the current Democratic U.S. Senator from Colorado. A successful businessman and school superintendent, Michael Bennet is an independent voice who will work with Democrats or Republicans to get things done. He is fighting for an economy that works for the middle class, not more trick-down economics. Bennet knows that today, jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling, yet the top 1 percent and CEOs are using money and lobbyists to write the rules so government works for them, not you. Well, we need to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth. [MONEY REFORM] Bennet says we should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donations OR [GOV. REFORM] Bennet says we should start by auditing the entire federal government to root out waste, simplifying the tax code and eliminating 1 trillion dollars of special interest breaks and subsidies. Then, he says we must enact an agenda for the hardworking and families: make college affordable by getting rid of student debt; help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women; protect Social Security against any cuts in benefits; and ensure more credit and help for small businesses and independent contractors. Bennet believes that by increasing taxes for the richest 1 percent, we can give breaks to companies that create American jobs and invest in infrastructure to modernize America. Let's level the playing field for the middle class again Money Colorado Much more positive 20 Government 25

27 In Colorado, middle class money reform wins across base and swing groups Now I am going to read you a description of one of the candidates for U.S. Senator. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about [the Democratic Candidate], somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. [MONEY REFORM] Bennet says we should start by barring corporate and secret contributions and empower small donations [GOV. REFORM] Bennet says we should start by auditing the entire federal government to root out waste, simplifying the tax code and eliminating 1 trillion dollars of special interest breaks and subsidies. COLORADO Very Convincing Bennet Money RAE Bennet Gov. Bennet Money Millennials Bennet Gov. Bennet Money 17 Bennet Gov. White Non-College Bennet Money Seniors Bennet Gov. Democratic Base Groups Swing Groups 26

28 Bennet money reform profile adds real votes I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Senate in 2016, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you be voting for -- (ROTATE) [Democratic Candidate] or [Republican Candidate]? Net Bennet Money v. GOP Agenda +5 Democrat Republican Bennet Gov. v. GOP Agenda Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Initial Post-Rep & Dem Agenda Initial Post-Rep & Dem Agenda 27

29 IMPACT OF ATTACKS 28

30 Policies most likely to shift the vote towards Democrats Now I'm going to read you some things that Republicans like (RSNCAND16) in Washington and in your state are trying to do. These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (RSNCAND16) when you are thinking of voting in November. GRIDLOCK (WI) Ron Johnson is part of the partisan gridlock on Washington. He single-handedly brought the Senate to a halt when he did not get his way, threatened to shut down the government over the Planned Parenthood issue and even personally sued President Obama WOMEN (OH) Rob Portman voted three times against the Paycheck Fairness Act, which would help ensure women get equal pay, voted to allow employers to deny women coverage for birth control and voted to defund Planned Parenthood. WALL STREET (WI) After accepting over 575,000 dollars in campaign contributions from Wall Street, Ron Johnson voted to roll back Wall Street reforms designed to prevent another financial collapse, opposed requiring CEO's to pay their fair share of taxes and voted to protect tax breaks for corporations that send American jobs overseas. WOMEN (WI) Ron Johnson voted three times against the Paycheck Fairness Act, which would help ensure women get equal pay, voted to defund Planned Parenthood and to outlaw common forms including the pill and even voted against the Violence Against Women Act. WALL STREET (OH) While accepting over 4.8 million dollars in campaign contributions from Wall Street, Rob Portman voted to roll back Wall Street reforms designed to prevent another financial collapse, opposed requiring CEO's to pay their fair share of taxes and even supported George Bush's plan to eliminate overtime for 8 million workers. SENIORS (FL) David Jolly said there was, quote, "a lot of good" in a Republican budget that would have ended Medicare as we know it, forcing seniors and families that care for them to pay 6,400 dollars more out of pocket every year and buy health insurance. He even supported raising the retirement age for federal workers

31 Working women, gridlock, Wall Street impact the revote Now I'm going to read you some things that Democrats like (DSNCAND16) in Washington and in your state are trying to do. These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (DSNCAND16) when you are thinking of voting in November. 30

32 Wall Street, lobbying, working women drive interest Now I'm going to read you some things that Democrats like (DSNCAND16) in Washington and in your state are trying to do. These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (DSNCAND16) when you are thinking of voting in November. 31

33 IMPACT IN STATES 32

34 White non-college women and unmarried women grow more interested How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. POST DEBATE: % 10 Extremely Interested Before After

35 Middle class money reform agenda moves the Democrats, working class women, unmarried women How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. MONEY REFORM: % 10 Extremely Interested After

36 Middle class government reform really moves the white working class women and white unmarried women How interested are you in the November, 2016 elections for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. GOVERNMENT REFORM: % 10 Extremely Interested Before After

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