Mobile Broadband Update in the Americas

Transcription

1 Mobile Broadband Update in the Americas Erasmo Rojas Director, Latin America & Caribbean 1

2 Agenda Market update Technology update Regulatory aspects Conclusion 2

3 3G Americas Board of Governors The mission of 3G Americas is to promote, facilitate and advocate for the deployment and adoption of the GSM family of technologies including LTE throughout the Americas. 3

4 3G Americas White Paper Publications

5 World Mobile Subscription Distribution 4.8 Billion Subscriptions Worldwide March 2010 North America 7% 314 Million Eastern Europe Western Europe 10% 12% 577 Million 490 Million Asia Pacific 46% 2.22 Billion Latin America 11% 526 Million Africa 10% 471 Million Middle East 4% 205 Million Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ March

6 Global Mobile Market Shares March 2010 GSM UMTS HSPA Total Global Subscriptions = 4.8 Billion 90% 43billion 4.3 subscriptions GSM 80% 3.8 Billion Subscriptions UMTS-HSPA 10.26% CDMA 9.68% 493 Million Subscriptions 465 Million Subscriptions Analog, iden, PDC, TD-SCDMA, TDMA 0.7% 33 Million Subscriptions Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, March

7 Some mobile indicators end of 2009 Indicator North America Latin America Wireless users 309 million 509 million Mobile Penetration ti 89% 86% 3G HSPA technology market share 11% 3% Prepaid market share 12% 83% Average ARPU USD $ 50 USD $ 14 Data as % of service revenues 29% 18% 7

8 Wireless Technology Market Shares in the Western Hemisphere March 2010 GSM UMTS HSPA CDMA iden, TDMA 74% 622 M Subscriptio ons 314 Million Total Subscriptions 43% 53% 134 M 165 M 840 Million Total Subscriptions 23% 197 M 92% 485 M 526 Million Total Subscriptions 4% 3% 6% 2% 32 M Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, March

9 Annual Wireless Technology Trends in the US/Canada 295 Million Total Subscriptions 156 M 314 Million Total Subscriptions 165 M Subscriptio ons (Millions) 126 M 136 M 8% Growth 6% Growth * *iden, TDMA 13 M 13 M March 2009 March 2010 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, March

10 Meeting the Mobile Broadband Bandwidth Demand Without Action With Action abytes Peta Time With Action: More spectrum and more efficient technologies, use of complementary technologies (Wifi, femtocells) and more efficient applications on smartphones Source: AT&T, CTIA Wireless, March

11 US Mobile Broadband Market Forecast Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.1% over the period Subscribers (Millions) 30.2 Million Million Source: IDC Press Release, 15 June

12 Smartphone Penetration Forecast Percentage (Except Brazil) Source: Deutsche Bank Securities, 29 March

13 Latin America Wireless Technology Growth March 2009 March 2010 GSM- UMTS- HSPA GSM- UMTS- HSPA Market Shares iden TDMA iden TDMA Subscriptions Market Share Subscriptions Market Share GSM UMTS HSPA 417 M 89% GSM UMTS HSPA 486 M 92% CDMA 39 M 9% CDMA 32 M 6% iden 6.5 M 1% iden 8 M 1% TDMA 4 M 1% TDMA 0.7 M 0% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, March

14 Top Ten Wireless Markets in Latin America End d2009 Subscriptions (Millions) Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ April

15 HSPA in Latin America & Caribbean 57 networks in service in 24 countries: 19 M subscriptions El Salvador Claro Tigo Mexico Telcel Movistar French West Indies Outremer Telecom Guatemala Claro Tigo Movistar Colombia Comcel Movistar Tigo Ecuador Porta Movistar Panama Claro Movistar Bermuda M3 Wireless Cellular One Honduras Claro Tigo Costa Rica ICE Peru Claro Movistar Nextel Bolivia Tigo Chile Entel Movil Claro Movistar Nicaragua Claro Movistar Puerto Rico AT&T Dominican Republic Claro Claro T-Mobile Orange Aruba SETAR Venezuela Digitel Movistar Movilnet Argentina Claro Telecom Personal M i t Source: Public Announcements, Regulators and Informa Telecoms & Media, June 2010 Jamaica Claro LIME Brazil Brasil Telecom Claro CTBC Oi Sercomtel TIM Brasil VIVO Paraguay Claro Telecom Personal Tigo Uruguay ANCEL Claro M i t US Virgin Islands AT&T Movistar Movistar 15

16 Typical ARPU as of 4Q09 (US$/Month) US$/Month ARPU: Services revenues divided by the average subscriber base during the quarter. Service revenues include monthly service charges and usage fees, roaming, long distance, and subscriptions to mobile data services $58 $50 $24 $16 $15 $14 $12 $9 $9 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates 1Q10 16

17 Trials LTE in Latin America Chile: Entel PCS, December 2009in2 2.6GHz (experimental license) Argentina: Telecom Personal, June 2010 in 2.6 GHz (experimental license) Peru: Telefonica makes first field data call, June 2010 in 700 MHz Telefonica has announced trials during 2010 in Argentina and Brazil Spectrum 1.7 / 2.1 GHz: auctioned in Chile, being auctioned in Mexico, might be auctioned in Argentina end GHz: 50MHz auctioned ctionedincolombiaandin and under consideration in Brazil 700MHz: willbe studied inmexico and Argentina 17

18 Global ARPU Trends $ Mobile Lifestyle Mobile BB Margin Pressure ARPU Network Traffic Source: GSMA, December

19 Mobile Traffic will keep Growing Voice services willcontinue growing butinformation based based services will grow much more gabytes pe er year Gi Other informationbased services Downloads TV/Streaming Messages Mobile PC Video Voice Source: 3GPP 19

20 Embedded Mobile Broadband Consumer Electronics 3GPP Healthcare Government th February Mobile GSMA World Americas Congress, Conference, Barcelona, 21st19June Automotive Utilities 20

21 2014 Global 3G Subscription Forecast UMTS-HSPA 83% 2.9 Billion 4% 10% LTE 128 M EV-DO 340 M 3% Mobile WiMAX 89 M 3GPP technologies (UMTS+HSPA+LTE): 87%, CDMA: 10%, Mobile WiMAX: 3% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, Mar

22 Spectrum and Regulatory Update 700 MHz band being considered in Chile, Mexico and Argentina 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) auctioned in Chile, being auctioned in Mexico and will be auctioned in Argentina 2.5 GHz first auction in Colombia, June 2010; 50 MHz awarded to a Colombian fixed operator UNE EPM 3.5 GHz: Fixed WiMAX deployed in several countries 22

23 Challenges in Latin America More spectrum is needed for advanced mobile broadband services Governments are promoting new entrants by using spectrum caps to limit established mobile operators High taxes for wireless services and equipment No spectrum auction for 4G; likely bands are 2.5 GHz, 1.7/2.1 GHz and 700 MHz Low broadband penetration (less than 10%) 23

24 Thank you! Erasmo Rojas Director, Latin America & Caribbean 24