Retail investment drops to 10 billion in Q1 following five quarters of exceptional turnover

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1 MARKETVIEW Europe Retail Investment, Q Retail investment drops to 10 billion in Q1 following five quarters of exceptional turnover -44% -40% -38 bps -38 bps Figure 1: European Retail Investment Turnover ( billion) Source: CBRE Research Quarterly Total (LHS) Rolling 12 Mo.Total (RHS) Total retail investment dropped to 10.1 billion in Q after the sustained bull run of transactions since Q There was a fall in transactions in the rest of the commercial property market, but that was not as severe as in the retail sector. A lack of investable stock has been a key factor in the fall in investment turnover. Investors risk-off attitude around the turn of the year when there was concern over economic growth, volatility in equity markets and rising bond yields was another factor driving both the decline in turnover as well as the lack of movement in secondary yields. Notable was the fall away in large transactions. Deals for 100 million or over had been running at well over 50% of the total in 2015, but dropped back to 47% of the total in Q1 2016). The slowdown in activity was seen in all the retail subsectors. Shopping Centres were 39% of the total and retail warehouses 20%, in both cases in line with the recent average. There was no real geographic pattern, although with the exception of Norway the Nordic markets beat the trend, with retail investment in Sweden, Denmark and especially Finland holding up well. Italy also beat the slowdown with turnover in Q higher than in any quarter in The UK and Germany, Europe s two largest retail investment markets, saw a lot less retail investment than in recent quarters, although they retained those top two positions. Prime retail yields continued to fall in Q1, but at - 5 bps for High Street Retail and -2 bps for Shopping Centres, the yield shift was much slower than in 2013/15. Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 1

2 UK Nordics Germany France Spain Other* Italy CEE Benelux MARKETVIEW COUNTRY TRENDS Figure 2: Retail Investment by Country 100% UK Germany France Spain Nordics Italy Benelux CEE Other* 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% * Other includes Austria, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland Figure 3: Retail Investment by Market / Region, ( billion) Q Q Q Q Q Q * Other includes Austria, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 2

3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q MARKETVIEW CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT Figure 4: Investment in European Retail by Investor Domicile, ( billion) % 25% 31% 32% 37% Cross-border Purchasers Local Purchasers 48% 40% 39% 34% 32% 49% 38% 29% 33% 46% 45% 36% 46% 40% 50% 42% 50% 48% 50% 44% Figure 5: Cross-Regional Investment in European Retail 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Domestic Intra-Regional Cross-Regional Figure 6: Cross-border Investment in Retail, Q1 2016: By Buyer Nationality (%) 3% 5% 15% 27% USA UK Germany UAE 8% France 9% 18% Canada Netherlands 15% Others Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 3

4 MARKETVIEW SOURCES OF INVESTMENT Figure 7: Buyer Mix by Value (%), Q Institutional Fund 15% 7% 6% 21% Property Company (Listed/REIT) Property Company (Other) German Funds UK Funds 12% US Funds 10% 9% 10% 10% All Other Collective Vehicles Private Other Figure 8: Net Investment in European Retail by Investor Type, Q ( billion) 2.5 Purchases Sales Net Investment Activity All Other Collective Vehicles Institutional Fund US Funds German Funds UK Funds Property Company (Listed/REIT) Private Property Company (Other) Developer Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 4

5 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Basis Points Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Basis Points MARKETVIEW PRICING AND CAPITAL VALUES Figure 9: Average Prime Yield Indices Q Q Q Q EMEA Average Prime High Street Yield(%) Quarter-on-quarter Shift (bp) Year-on-year Shift (bp) EMEA SC Average Prime Yield (%) Quarter-on-quarter Shift (bp) Year-on-year Shift (bp) Figure 10: Eurozone High Street Retail - Prime and Secondary Yields Spread (rhs) Shops - Prime (lhs) Shops - Secondary (lhs) Figure 11: Eurozone Shopping Centres - Prime and Secondary Yields Spread (rhs) Shopping centres - prime (lhs) Shopping centres - secondary (lhs) Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 5

6 MARKETVIEW MARKET ANALYSIS Figure 12: Retail Investment Activity by Country Market Turnover( m) Q Q Change on Quarter(%) Q1 on Q4 Change on Year (%) Q1 on Q1 UK 2,802 6, Germany 1,479 3, France 1, Finland Spain 803 1, Italy Sweden Netherlands Portugal Ireland Czech Republic Other Western Europe 532 1, Other CEE Europe* 10,102 16, Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 6

7 MARKETVIEW MARKET ANALYSIS (CONTINUED) Q CBRE Research 2016 CBRE Ltd. 7

8 MARKETVIEW EUROPE CAPITAL MARKET CONTACTS CBRE OFFICES EMEA CAPITAL MARKETS CONTACTS Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

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