Earthquake? April 1, 2016

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1 Earthquake? April 1, 2016

2 Methodology National Survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place March 17-24, Respondents who voted in the 2012 election or registered since were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. 65 percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full American electorate. 1

3 Obama approval reaches 54 percent for first time since re-election Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Election 2014 Election Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Apr-16 2

4 Independents, working class, majority of unmarried women say wrong direction Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Total Millennials RAE Unmarried Women Independents White Unmarried Women White Non- College Women White Non- College Men 3

5 Republican brand at shocking low Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 53.4 Mean: 48.9 Mean: 49.0 Mean: 42.7 Mean: 47.5 Mean: 40.0 Mean: 37.0 Mean: 30.8 Mean: 32.0 Net: Net: +5 Net: +4 Net: Net: -- Net: -23 Net: -24 Net: -34 Net: Barack Obama Bernie Sanders Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Paul Ryan GOP Party Ted Cruz Mitch McConnell Donald Trump 4

6 Republican Party reaching all time lows Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold Election The Republican Party 2012 Election Mean 2014 Election Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 4 years. Data represents MEAN ratings. 5

7 6 Democrats now at parity on economy & winning all issues but safety Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue LV Putting the needs of everyday Americans before special interests GOP Much Better Dem Much Better Dem - GOP +20 Addressing issues important to me Being on my side Bringing the right kind of change The economy Keeping America safe Cleaning up the mess in Washington

8 Big increase in engagement among Dems, unmarried women, minorities & college women December 2015: % 10 Interest March 2016: %10 Interest/Matters

9 Clinton margin grows to +13 against Trump Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton Trump/Rep. Clinton Trump/Rep. Clinton Trump September 2015 December 2015 March 2016 In September and December Donald Trump was the Republican Candidate and self-identifying Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who volunteered another candidate were allocated to the Trump/Republican candidate category. 8

10 Gender gap owed to huge marriage gap among women Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Gender Gap: +21 Marriage Gap: Clinton Trump Clinton Clinton Trump Trump Clinton Trump Men Women Married Women Unmarried Women 9

11 Clinton s Millennial vote drops 9 points, now wins Gen X & Boomers Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Dec. March Dec. March Dec. March Dec. March Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Silent/Greatest 10

12 Clinton loyalists equal the sum of Trump s potential vote Potential: 56% 43 Clinton Not Clinton Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Potential: 43% Trump Not Trump Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable 11

13 12 Whether to support Trump puts GOP candidates in a pickle (IF NOT VOTING FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR CONGRESS) If the Republican candidate for Congress in your area SUPPORTS/DOES NOT SUPPORT Donald Trump in the general election against Democrat Hillary Clinton, would that make you more or less likely to SUPPORT the Republican candidate for Congress? MORE LIKELY to support GOP candidate for Congress if SUPPORTS Donald Trump. LESS LIKELY to support GOP candidate for Congress if SUPPORTS Donald Trump. 50 Much more likely Much less likely MORE LIKELY to support GOP candidate for Congress if DOES NOT support Donald Trump. LESS LIKELY to support GOP candidate for Congress if DOES NOT support Donald Trump. 34 Much more likely Much less likely More likely Less Likely No difference GOP congressional candidate SUPPORTS Trump More likely Less Likely No difference GOP congressional candidate DOES NOT SUPPORT Trump

14 Presidential targets PRESIDENTIAL TARGETS Sanders Supporters in Primary Anti-Trump GOP Defectors Moderate Republicans % Millennials 58% millennials 43% millennials 21% millennials Gender 53% women 53% men 56% women Education 50% college 55% college 51% non-college Marital Status 62% unmarried 53% married 59% married % White 66% white 87% white 90% white 2012 Vote 97% Obama 58% Romney 81% Romney Clinton (very unfavorable) Trump (very unfavorable) Congressional Vote (Dem-Rep) 13% very unfavorable 47% very unfavorable 73% very unfavorable 89% very unfavorable 76% very unfavorable 27% very unfavorable 82% Dem 72% Rep 88% Rep 13

15 Congressional targets CONGRESSIONAL TARGETS Clinton NOT Dem for Congress Clinton NOT Dem for Congress (Cruz) GOP Defectors when SUPPORT Trump GOP Defectors when NOT for Trump % Millennials 40% millennials 33% millennials 45% millennials 13% millennials Gender 61% women 58% women 61% women 51% men Education 52% college 51% non-college 51% non-college 47% non-college Marital 59% unmarried 59% unmarried 57% unmarried 68% married % White 69% white 69% white 76% white 85% white Democratic Party (very unfavorable) 8% very unfavorable 4% very unfavorable 18% very unfavorable 62% very unfavorable GOP (very unfavorable) 31% very unfavorable 32% very unfavorable 26% very unfavorable 22% very unfavorable Party ID 37 Dem 38 Ind 25 Rep 41 Dem 44 Ind 14 Rep 28 Dem 48 Ind 24 Rep 7 Dem 31 Ind 62 Rep 14

16 Cruz still loses to Clinton by 6 points Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Now, if the election for President were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Ted Cruz? Clinton Trump Clinton Cruz 15

17 Big opportunity for congressional vote to grow Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [NAMED] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Clinton Trump 2 3 Democrat 4 Republican Presidential Vote Congressional Vote 11 Clinton but not Congressional Dem 16

18 Close to 2008 congressional vote, but stronger Democratic performance needed to produce a wave Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November, would you be voting for -- (ROTATE) (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep March 2006 Nov March 2008 Nov May 2012 Nov March

19 If RAE congressional vote matches presidential, huge gains Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [NAMED] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? ClintonTrump Dem Rep ClintonTrump Dem Rep ClintonTrump Dem Rep ClintonTrump Dem Rep RAE Unmarried Women Minorities Millennials 18

20 WHITE WORKING CLASS 19

21 Large class divides among both women and men Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump White Non-College Men White College Men White Non- College Women White College Women 20

22 What white working class landslide? White non-college men abandon Clinton as much as the women abandon Trump Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Obama Romney Clinton Trump Obama Romney Clinton Trump Obama Romney Clinton Trump White Non-College White Non-College Men White Non-College Women 21

23 White working class men are 17% of electorate, but need 100% turnout and 37% vote share to get even against Clinton Zero-Sum Turnout Calculator White Non- College Men Everyone Else Total Electorate Share 37% 63% Vote Share Clinton 26% 57% 46% Trump 64% 36% 46% Undecided 10% 7% 8% Voters 50,320,000 85,680, ,000,000 Turnout Rate 100% 49% 61% Citizen ,188, ,311, ,500,000 The number of White Non-College voters over age 18 is estimated using the average of the Census Current Population Survey's Voting and Registration Supplement in November 2008, November 2012, and November The Citizen 18+ Population is my extrapolation from Census CPS estimates. The number of 2016 voters is estimated by adding the increase in voters between the 2004 and 2012 elections to the 2012 vote. 22

24 CLINTON VS. TRUMP MESSAGING 23

25 Level Playing Field message beats Trump economic nationalist message Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Level the Playing Field We need a country that works for the middle class, not one governed by trickle-down economics. Jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling while CEOs and billionaires use their lobbyists to make government work for them, not you. So, we should bar secret corporate campaign contributions and empower small donors. And make sure taxpayers get their money's worth by rooting out waste and special interest tax breaks. Then we can level the playing field for the middle class. Protect Social Security against cuts in benefits. Ensure any trade deal creates American jobs. Make college affordable, cut student debt, and improve education quality at all levels. Help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women. And make the wealthiest pay their fair share in taxes so we can invest in American again. Much more positive Trump Economic Message We want to see America great again. America doesn't win anymore and we don't compete globally because our leaders are incompetent. We are negotiating disastrous trade deals that let other countries take our manufacturing and our jobs. We don't have borders anymore and illegal immigrants take our jobs and bring drugs and crime. Our healthcare is too expensive and our military has been gutted. Our elected leaders owe the billionaires and they do their bidding. We need smart leaders who will take care of our people first. I will redo our trade deals and bring back our jobs. I will build a wall to keep immigrants out and make Mexico pay for it. And when these corporations move to another country to avoid taxes, they will pay. America needs leaders who will make America great again. Much more positive

26 Competitive among independents and Trump has no edge on the economy among the white working class women Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Much more positive Clinton Level Field Trump Clinton Level Field Trump Clinton Level Field Trump Clinton Level Field Trump White Unmarried Women Independents White Non-College Women White Non-College Men 25

27 Democratic targets prefer Level Field by a landslide Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. 86 CAMPAIGN TARGETS Much more positive Clinton Level Field Trump Clinton Level Field Trump Clinton Level Field Trump Clinton Level Field Trump Sanders Supporters Clinton NOT Dem for Congress GOP Defectors when SUPPORT Trump GOP Defectors when NOT for Trump 26

28 Similar support for Level Playing Field & Ladders, BUT Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Level the Playing Field We need a country that works for the middle class, not one governed by trickle-down economics. Jobs don't pay enough to live on and families and small businesses are struggling while CEOs and billionaires use their lobbyists to make government work for them, not you. So, we should bar secret corporate campaign contributions and empower small donors. And make sure taxpayers get their money's worth by rooting out waste and special interest tax breaks. Then we can level the playing field for the middle class. Protect Social Security against cuts in benefits. Ensure any trade deal creates American jobs. Make college affordable, cut student debt, and improve education quality at all levels. Help working families with child care, paid sick days and equal pay for women. And make the wealthiest pay their fair share in taxes so we can invest in American again. Much more positive Ladders of Opportunity Too many barriers hold back our families, our economy, and our country. Instead of building walls, we need to break down barriers and build ladders of opportunity so every American can live up to his or her potential. Creating good-paying jobs and raising incomes is the defining challenge of our time. We need to invest in our workers, give the middle class a raise, invest in manufacturing and infrastructure, small businesses and clean energy. We need to ensure every child gets the education they deserve and help relieve the burden of student debt. We need to finally guarantee equal pay for equal work. And we need to defend workers' rights, women's right and civil rights, so everyone can share in the promise of America. Because America prospers when we all prosper. Much more positive

29 Level the playing field message more powerful in shifting the vote towards Clinton in regressions 61E Campaign Reform 28

30 Level field shifts unmarried women towards Clinton Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATECANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Unmarried Women Net Democrat Initial Republican Revote Democrat Initial Republican Revote Democrat Initial Republican Revote Democrat Initial Republican Revote Ladders of Opportunity Level the Playing Field 29

31 Level Field message much more impactful in engaging RAE POST DEBATE: % 10 Matters/Interest Before After LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD LADDERS OF OPPORTUNITY 30

32 REFORM 31

33 Campaign reform message has intense support among RAE, but government reform also popular Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. CAMPAIGN REFORM: Our government needs to work for everyone, not just the special interests and the wealthy. So we need to overturn Citizen's United, outlaw corporate donations, and empower small donors so candidates can spend less time fundraising and more time listening to working families. GOVERNMENT REFORM: We need to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth. That means auditing every federal agency to cut waste and fraud, simplifying the tax code to undercut the influence of lobbying and eliminating $500 billion of special interest tax breaks and subsidies Much more positive about Hillary Clinton Campaign Reform Government Reform Campaign Reform Government Reform Campaign Reform Government Reform Campaign Reform Government Reform Campaign Reform Government Reform TOTAL Rising American Electorate Unmarried Women Millennials Minorities 32

34 Government reform emerging as most important with independents, working class women Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. CAMPAIGN REFORM: Our government needs to work for everyone, not just the special interests and the wealthy. So we need to overturn Citizen's United, outlaw corporate donations, and empower small donors so candidates can spend less time fundraising and more time listening to working families. GOVERNMENT REFORM: We need to make sure taxpayers get their money's worth. That means auditing every federal agency to cut waste and fraud, simplifying the tax code to undercut the influence of lobbying and eliminating $500 billion of special interest tax breaks and subsidies Much more positive about Hillary Clinton Campaign Reform Government Reform White Unmarried Women Campaign Reform Government Reform Independents Campaign Reform Government Reform White Non-College Women Campaign Reform Government Reform White Non-College Men 33

35 CONTRAST & ATTACKS 34

36 In the general election contrast, Clinton beats Trump easily Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Clinton Contrast Message Much more positive Trump Contrast Message Much more positive The next president will make decisions that affect the lives of everyone in this country. Our Commander in Chief has to be able to defend our country, not embarrass it. When we have a candidate call for rounding up 12 million immigrants, banning all Muslims, and embracing torture, that doesn't make him strong, it makes him wrong. And we need to find common ground to solve our problems, not divide this country between us and them Making America great again begins with rebuilding our military so we can destroy ISIS. Hillary Clinton says police violence terrorizes our communities and is just as important as the threat we face from ISIS. No wonder she and Barack Obama called ISIS the J.V. team before they took over half of Iraq and Syria. They created ISIS. And now she wants to be the President to face down our toughest opponents. Is she tough enough to face down Putin and defeat ISIS. I know we need a president who will rebuild our military and defeat the terrorists

37 Massive preference for Clinton s contrast message among the Democratic targets Now I am going to read you something Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump is saying about the country. Please tell me whether the statement makes you feel much more positive about Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump, somewhat more positive, a little more positive, or not at all positive. CAMPAIGN TARGETS Much more positive Clinton Contrast 13 1 Trump Contrast 47 Clinton Contrast 15 8 Trump Contrast 41 Clinton Contrast Trump Contrast Clinton Contrast 53 Trump Contrast Sanders Supporters Clinton v. Clinton NOT Trump NOT Dem for Congress Dem Congress NOT Dem Congress, GOP less likely Defectors support when SUPPORT Rep if supports Trump Trump GOP Defectors when NOT for Trump 36

38 Trump s sexism, threat to national security top attacks Now I'm going to read you some things that DEMOCRATIC critics are saying about Donald Trump. These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump. SEXIST: Donald Trump is very disrespectful of women. He said Megyn Kelly is a bimbo and must be on her period, told women they owe their jobs to their looks, called a female lawyer disgusting for breaking to pump breast milk, and worse. This is unacceptable from a presidential candidate. 43 Very serious doubts 66 DANGEROUS: Donald Trump says he gets his national security advice from TV shows and says attending a military academy in high school counts as experience. National security is serious business, and nothing is more dangerous than an erratic strong-man who can send your children to war or fire a nuclear weapon XENOPHOBIA: Donald Trump calls immigrants criminals and rapists and wants to ban Muslims from entering the country which is unconstitutional. And he refused to immediately disavow the endorsement of a former Klu Klux Klan leader and defended violence against protestors at his rallies EGO-MANIAC: Donald Trump cares more about being famous and powerful than he does about the country. Instead of helping ordinary people recover from the worst recession since the great depression and keeping our country safe, he was turning himself into a reality TV star

39 And Trump s sexism has impact on re-vote in the regressions 38

40 White working class women are listening to doubts on both sides Now I'm going to read you some things that DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN critics are saying about Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton. These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton? White Unmarried Women White Non-College Women White Non-College Men Sexist Sexist Scandal Xenophobia Scandal Trade Dangerous Security Security Ego-Maniac Dangerous Sexist Scandal Wall Street Dangerous Wall Street Trade Wall Street Security Xenophobia Xenophobia Trade Ego-Maniac Ego-Maniac

41 Democratic target worry about Trump more than Clinton Now I'm going to read you some things that DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN critics are saying about Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton. These could decide whether you vote in November. Please tell me whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton? Sanders Supporters Clinton NOT Dem for Congress GOP Defectors when SUPPORT Trump GOP Defectors when NOT for Trump Sexist Sexist Sexist Scandal Dangerous Dangerous Xenophobia Security Xenophobia Xenophobia Dangerous Wall Street Ego-Maniac Ego-Maniac Scandal Trade Scandal Scandal Ego-Maniac Sexist Trade 8 31 Security 8 28 Trade Dangerous Wall Street 5 38 Trade 8 29 Security Xenophobia Security 6 10 Wall Street 6 40 Wall Street Ego-Maniac

42 If RAE congressional vote matches presidential, huge gains Now, thinking again about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- [ROTATE CANDIDATES] Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? / Thinking about the election for Congress in 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for [NAMED] the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? ClintonTrump Dem Rep ClintonTrump Dem Rep ClintonTrump Dem Rep ClintonTrump Dem Rep RAE Unmarried Women Minorities Millennials 41

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