The 2014 Mainframe User Survey An analysis of the profile, plans, and priorities of mainframe users. Many thanks to all those who took part.
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1 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook 2007 by Mark Lillycrop and 2014 Trevor user Eddolls survey The 2014 Mainframe User Survey An analysis of the profile, plans, and priorities of mainframe users. Many thanks to all those who took part. As usual our annual mainframe survey provides a snapshot of the System z user community s existing hardware and software configuration, and also their plans and concerns for This year we have continued to track the growth of mainframe integration with Web services, cloud computing, and other areas of new development, as well as gauging the extent to which BYOD, Chart Title cloud computing, and Linux applications are changing the face of mainframe computing. In addition, we have continued to explore relative cost in more details, asking respondents how fast their distributed server costs are growing relative to the mainframe. And we have investigated how important green issues are to the mainframe community. 6% 51% 33% Asia/Pacific Europe Middle East/Africa North America Chart 1: Distribution of respondents Profile of respondents The mainframe user survey was completed by 100 individuals between the 1 November 2013 and the 6 December Survey respondents were either contacted directly by or other Web-based means and invited to complete the mainframe user survey on the Arcati Web site. Responses from large mainframe vendors and multiple entries from different people at the same site were excluded from the survey. Again this year, there were no respondents from South America. The distribution of all respondents is shown in Chart 1. Just over half (51 percent) were from North America and about a third (33 percent) were from Europe, with six percent from the Asia/Pacific region, and ten percent from the Middle East/Africa. As usual, a wide range of industry types are represented in our sample (Chart 2). Banking and insurance, both accounted for 38 percent of respondents, with IT accounting for another 20 percent. Government had 8 percent, retail six percent each, health, manufacturing, and telecom had five percent, transport had two percent, and education only one percent. That left other categories with 10 percent. A third way to categorize respondents is to look at Arcati Limited,
2 1% 2% Education 25% 5% 5% 5% Transport Health 6% Manufacturing 8% Telecom Retail Government 13% Other Insurance IT Chart 2: Industry sector of respondents Banking business size. As shown in Chart 3, exactly half (50 percent) of the companies have in excess of 10,000 employees worldwide, Below that, with 24 percent of respondents, are staff sizes of With 10 percent of responses are staff sizes of And with nine percent are staff sizes of 201 to 1000, and only seven percent have staff sizes of 5001 to 10, percent of our respondents were involved in running in-house data centres, which was down from last year s 84 percent. 14 percent (up from last year s six percent) of respondents said they were working in an outsourced operation with a further six percent saying that they were partially outsourced. Installed MIPS and capacity growth As in previous surveys we have used MIPS as the principal measure of capacity size. We asked respondents to indicate the total mainframe MIPS installed on their systems, and the result is shown in Chart percent had ,000 MIPS, down again from last year s figure of 36 percent. 9% % % ,000 10,000+ Chart 3: Number of employees woldwide in organizations surveyed 32 Arcati Ltd, 2014
3 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook % 11% 16% 15% Under % 28% ,000 10,000-25,000 Over 25,000 Not specified Chart 4: Total mainframe MIPS installed 16 percent had under 500 MIPS, which is down from last year s figure of 22 percent. Only 15 percent had MIPS (up from last year s six percent). 13 percent had 10,000 to 25,000 MIPS, and 17 percent had over 25,000 MIPS installed (both similar values to the previous year). As in previous years, we use installed MIPS later in the survey to identify differences between small, mid-sized, and larger users. Chart 5 shows the annual MIPS growth of respondents. 71 percent of sites (similar to last year s figure) of mainframe installations are experiencing some growth, with three sites claiming growth in the region of percent. Only eight percent (up slightly from last year s 6 percent) of sites are reporting a decline in mainframe capacity growth. 11 percent of sites (down from last year s 18 percent) are not expecting any kind of change in their MIPS this year. Looking at Chart 6, however, we can see that the picture varies considerably depending on the size of the system. Small sites (32 percent) are most likely to have seen some kind of decline or to have stayed the same, and yet, in complete contrast, they were more likely to see growth in 3% 8% 11% Declined 28% None 0 to to to 50 Not sure Chart 5: Annual MIPS growth of respondents Arcati Limited,
4 0% Less than 1000 MIPS 1000 to 10,000 MIPS Chart 6: MIPS growth by installation size Over 10,000 MIPS 26 to 50 percent per year 10 to 25 percent per year 0 to 10 percent per year None Decline the percent range. While some larger sites (above 10,000 MIPS) did report a decline or no growth, the majority were anticipating some kind of growth possibly up to 50 percent per year. Midrange respondents were typically expecting some kind of growth (89 percent of site). It is a confusing picture with nearly a third of small sites, 10 percent of medium sites, and 17 percent of larger sites showing no growth or a decline. Perhaps sites have been holding off on growth until the global economic climate brightens up. Over 50 percent 26 to 50 percent 10 to 25 percent 0 to 10 percent No growth Declined Over 50 percent 26 to 50 percent 10 to 25 percent 0 to 10 percent No growth Declined 0% Mainframe Unix Linux Windows Other mainframe 0% Chart 7: Mainframe capacity growth compared with other platforms Mainframe Unix Linux Windows Other IBM i 34 mainframe IBM i Arcati Ltd, 2014
5 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook 2007 We also compared the rate of growth of the mainframe with that of other IT platforms within the enterprise. As shown in Chart 7, the System z looks relatively strong in the slow-to-medium growth range. For the first time, we are seeing sites expecting Windows and Linux use to decline. When the don t know results have been excluded, we find 76 percent of mainframes are experiencing a growth of 1-25 percent per year. Just one Unix site reported growth greater than 50 percent per year. 13 percent of Windows sites are expecting over 50 percent growth, with the majority of sites in the percent growth range. Apart from a few mainframe sites expecting a decline, we find around seven percent of IBM i sites are expecting a decline, while six percent of other mainframe sites are. In fact, only 42 percent of respondent now have IBM i and just under a third (32 percent) have other types of mainframe. Hardware currency The IBM mainframe hardware range continues to receive a regular makeover, with new high-end and low-end systems generally being announced on alternate years 2010 saw the new zenterprise z196 processors, 2011 saw the z114 arrive, in 2012 it was the zec12, and this year the z12bc. Delivery dates for each range are provided in the Technical Information section of the Yearbook. Our research suggests that, traditionally, users upgrade on a regular basis to the most recent hardware to take advantage of capacity increases and cost benefits. Bearing in mind that the new zbc12 machines are only just being delivered, Chart 8 shows that 9 percent of respondents are using the new machines with 22 percent using the z12ec. 16 percent have z114s and 20 percent have z196s. That leaves 12 percent of respondents using z10s and the rest using older z mainframes. It is perhaps worth pointing out here that many respondents had more than one processor in use at their site with quite a few having three or more different processor models in use. With the greater availability of Intel-based machines such as z Personal Development Tool Adapter or the Secure Enterprise Desktop, we wanted to know whether anyone was actually 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% z12bc 9% 4% 4% z12ec z114 8% 22% z196 z10bc 12% z10ec z9bc z9ec 16% z990 z890 z900 z800 Other IBM Chart 8: Mainframe processors installed (all responses) Arcati Limited,
6 using them to run mainframe applications. We found that six percent of sites were using them for development and three percent of sites were using them for production! Mainframe strategy We asked respondents what, in their opinion, are the main benefits for their organization of the mainframe over other platforms. 86 percent highlighted the benefit of availability, with 71 percent identifying both security and scalability as benefits. Manageability last with 58 percent. We then went on to find out what are the main obstacles to mainframe acceptance within the enterprise. 66 percent (down from last year s 82 percent) thought mainframes are too expensive (or appear to be). 49 percent (also down from last year s 58 percent) thought that there are cultural barriers between mainframers and other IT professionals. 28 percent identified concerns about future availability/support for mainframe applications, 40 percent (way up from last year s 18 percent) said difficulty in obtaining or retaining the necessary skills, and 20 percent thought mainframes are too complex (or appear to be). Seven percent thought there were no obstacles to mainframe acceptance which is nice. Clearly this part of the survey is highlighting the issue of a skills shortage. Within the industry as a whole, opinion is clearly divided over the role of the mainframe in new applications. For some companies the mainframe remains a separate legacy environment while others are leveraging the strengths of large systems by using them to deploy new workloads and technologies. We found that 46 percent of sites viewed their mainframe as a legacy system. That s nearly half of all the sites surveyed. Happily, 21 percent viewed mainframes as strategic, and 22 percent viewed them as strategic and legacy. We asked respondents whether their z/os systems participate in Web services and SOA environments, and the results are shown in Chart percent of organizations said that their mainframes participate partly or fully in Web services, up from last year s 58 percent. It may well be that SOA and Web services has now reached maturity because the number of sites planning to integrate them in the future was only 2 percent (down from 6 percent the previous year). 47 percent (up from last year s 36 percent) went on to say that they run Java-based applications on the mainframe, with only five percent planning to do so in the future (well down on last year s 20 percent). Again this is a sign of maturity in the technology. 36 percent of respondents (similar to last year s 34 percent) said that they run Linux on the System 24% 21% Not sure 43% 2% No Not yet Partly Fully Chart 9: Do your mainframe applications participate in your Web services/soa? 36 Arcati Ltd, 2014
7 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook CICS IMS WebSphere Application Server DB2 Chart 10: Which middleware have you, or do you plan to enable, with Web services? Siebel SAP Other Don't know z (with another 15 percent, again similar to last year s 16 percent, at the planning stage). There are considerable cost and management benefits of consolidating distributed Linux workloads onto the mainframe, and IBM made the IFL (Integrated Facility for Linux) specialty processor available in Running Linux on a mainframe seems well on its way to becoming a mainstream technology. And while we were thinking about Linux on mainframes, we asked how many sites were running Oracle under Linux on System z. 15 percent of sites surveyed said that they currently run Oracle on zlinux, which is up from last year s figure of 8 percent. Last year, eight percent of respondents planned to use it, this year, no-one does. 73 percent of organizations said that they are Webenabling their CICS subsystems (Chart 10), which is the same as last year. 67 percent of sites are Web-enabling DB2, which is just down from last year s 72 percent. 29 percent of sites are Webenabling IMS, slightly down from last year s 32 percent, and WebSphere Application Server rated 32 percent (down from last year s 38 percent. 7 percent of sites are Web-enabling SAP. This low figure probably reflects the smaller number of sites using the product on a mainframe rather than a reluctance to consider Web-service enabling it. We asked whether respondents currently used their mainframe for cloud computing. Only seven percent of respondents said they did (up from last year s four percent). 84 percent said they didn t (down from 90 percent). We also asked whether respondents were planning to adopt cloud computing as a strategy. 50 percent (up from last year s 40 percent) said they weren t at present. 16 percent (down from last year s 22 percent) thought some mainframe applications would be cloud enabled in the future. 15 percent (much the same as last year) claimed that some of their applications are using the cloud model. As for the future of legacy systems, once again the answer depends to a degree on the size and maturity of the installation. As shown in Chart 11, 54 percent of the largest sites see integration as the way forward and predict a positive strategic direction well down from last year s figure of 75 percent. In the mid-range (between 1000 and 10,000 MIPS), the pro-integration contingent drops to 39 percent (down from 50 percent last Arcati Limited,
8 A mixture of strategies Mostly outsourced Mostly ported to Windows Mostly ported to Unix/Linux Maintained and actively integrated Maintain but not integrate 0% Less than 1000 to Over 10, MIPS 10,000 MIPS MIPS Chart 11: Legacy application plans over the next three years year) with 14 percent (last year it was 5 percent) considering porting to Unix or Linux. 27 percent of larger sites and 25 percent of medium-sized ones see outsourcing as a way forward. Below 1000 MIPS, 61 percent of sites (well up from last year s 21 percent plan to integrate, with 16 percent looking at porting to Unix or Linux. Relative cost There are many ways of comparing the costs of mainframe systems with those of other platforms, but none of them are straightforward and few are meaningful. CIOs and finance directors all too often have little experience of the factors that contribute to mainframe total cost of ownership and there is still little published data available to help them make informed comparisons. It is beyond the scope of this short survey to go into detail on cost, but the following questions explore some areas where financial comparisons can be made between large centralized systems and distributed servers. We asked respondents how fast their System z-related expenditure is increasing, in terms of 38 the technology itself and the people needed to support it. In Chart 12, we compare these results with the growth in mainframe capacity. The vast majority of respondents said that their people and technology costs were seeing single-digit growth at the most (with 22.5 percent of sites seeing a decline in technology costs and 21 percent of sites seeing a decline in people costs). A third (up slightly from 30 percent last year) of respondents reported capacity growth higher than 10 percent, whereas only six percent (down from 10 last year) reported technology costs increasing by that amount, and only six percent (up from two percent last year) reported people costs increasing above 10 percent. Perhaps these sites are expecting to make savings on head count through the use of more modern technology. We went on to ask what proportion of the total IT budget is absorbed by mainframe-related costs, and what proportion of enterprise data resides on the mainframe (Chart 13). As has been the norm for the past few years, more than half of our respondents use other platforms to manage the lion s share of the corporate data. 45 percent Arcati Ltd, 2014
9 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook to 50 percent per year 11 to 25 percent per year Less than 10 percent per year No growth Declining 0% Capacity Technology costs People costs Chart 12: How fast is your System z-related expenditure growing annually, on the technology itself and on the people required to manage the technology? of sites have more data on mainframes, and 55 percent have more on other platforms. Their spend on the mainframe and distributed systems are disproportionate to the data split, with over three-quarters (78 percent) of budgets going off mainframe. The figures absolutely dismiss the mainframe: 0% nonmainframe mainframe: nonmainframe mainframe: nonmainframe mainframe: nonmainframe mainframe: nonmainframe 0% IT budget spend Enterprise data location Chart 13: IT budget and corporate data: mainframe and distributed systems compared Arcati Limited,
10 view that System z soaks up financial resources without providing a good return on investment. Again this year, we asked how fast respondents believed their acquisition/maintenance and support costs for distributed platforms were growing relative to the mainframe, for an equivalent amount of capacity or size of user population respectively (Chart 14). In other words, did they think that their mainframe costs were increasing faster or more slowly than their Unix, Linux, Windows, and IBM i costs. Of course, these numbers have to be treated with great caution because we are asking respondents to make direct comparisons, which, as we have just stated, are very complex. Once again, this chart can be used only as an indication of a general trend, but it s a very interesting trend nevertheless! Anything above the green block in each column suggests higher costs for alternative platforms. Again this year, a substantial number of respondents felt that their Unix, Linux, and Windows user-support costs were increasing faster than the mainframe for an equivalent amount of capacity or support. With the environment and environmental issues getting so much coverage in the media these days, we wanted to know whether IBM s green initiatives on things like power consumption and cooling had made the mainframe more or less attractive to our respondents. 57 percent of respondents (down from 78 percent last year) said that IBM s green initiatives made no difference at all. No-one said that the initiative made the mainframe less attractive. 25 percent felt it made the mainframe a little more attractive (up from last year s 20 percent), and no-one felt it made the mainframe a lot more attractive. Clearly greenness isn t much of a selling point for mainframes. Or perhaps our target audience would have a mainframe whatever! Unix Linux Windows IBM i 0% Unix Linux Windows IBM i Are your distributed acquisition/maintenance costs growing faster or slower than mainframe? 0% Much slower A little slower About the same A little faster Much faster Unix Linux Windows IBM i Much slower A little slower About the same A little faster Much faster Much slower A little slower About the same A little faster Much faster IBM versus the ISVs The mainframe independent software vendor (ISV) business is continually evolving, and there have been a number of small companies acquired by larger organizations, but, on the whole, not any 40 Are your distributed user support costs growing faster or slower than mainframe? Chart 14: Relative growth of expenditure: mainframe versus distributed Arcati Ltd, 2014
11 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook 2007 obvious shifts in the landscape. BMC Software agreed to be taken private in a $6.9 billion deal by Bain Capital LLC and Golden Gate Capital in May. IBM regularly argues that some ISVs are too inflexible and need to change their software pricing strategies, while the third-party suppliers respond that IBM is placing excessive pressure on them by using its size and influence to win over their customers. Mainframe management is now sold as a way of allowing customers to maintain the quality of the service they get from the mainframe without the reliance on experienced mainframers. In other words, the software will identify a problem and, as well as informing a less-qualified human, will take the necessary steps to negate the problem. In addition, vendors are beginning to use GUItype screens, which younger IT people are more familiar with, to display important information. And much mainframe monitoring data can now be accessed from a browser. We asked respondents what makes them consider a change of vendor for their mainframe tools and utilities. It s clear from Chart 15 that cost is by far the biggest driver, even though cheaper tools often offer limited functionality. ISVs will be pleased to know that although 14 percent of sites said they rarely if ever change their software, this figure is down from last year s 20 percent and the trend over the past few years has been downwards for this figure. We also asked how much of users mainframe software budget is spent on IBM/Tivoli software, and how much on products from other vendors. This year (see Chart 16) we found that 58 percent of respondents pay more to IBM/Tivoli for software than to other vendors. This is a decrease from last year s 72 percent. Does this mean that third-party software is becoming cheaper or more appealing to purchasers over the past year? Other issues We asked about IBM s specialty processors such as the Integrated Facility for Linux (IFL), the Application Assist Processor (zaap) intended for Java applications, and the Integrated Information Processor (ziip) intended primarily for DB2. We asked respondents which specialty processors Reduce costs Reduce the number of vendors supported Obtain better service/support from vendor Other Rarely (if ever) replace mainframe software Chart 15: What are the most important reasons for replacing mainframe tools and applications? Arcati Limited,
12 80 IBM 70 IBM 60 IBM 50 IBM 40 IBM % IBM Chart 16: How much software budget goes to IBM and how much to ISVs? they had. 11 percent of sites had all three (similar to last year s value of 12 percent) and a further 26 percent of sites had two of the three specialty processors (up from last year s 22 percent). More sites had ziip processors (68 percent up from 52) than any other. 28 percent (down from last year s 36 percent) had IFL processors, and 22 percent had zaap specialty processors. 22 percent of sites don t have a specialty processor installed. The full results are shown in Chart 17. In the USA, regulations such as Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act), and BASEL II, plus what s estimated to be over 150 state and federal laws dictate the length of time that Electronically- Stored Information (ESI) needs to be retained. These regulations, and they do depend on the industry, have greatly increased data retention periods. Similarly, outside the USA there has been a growth in regulation affecting the length of time that data needs to be archived. 45 percent of sites were compliant, with a further 17 percent nearly compliant, with these new regulations. The figure for sites not having an archiving strategy is 25percent, slightly lower than last year s 27 percent. Clearly, compliance is an important issue 42 and one that many organizations are making sure that they are (or will be) fully compliant. The full results are shown in Figure 18. According to the IBM Web site: PureSystems combine the flexibility of a general purpose system, the elasticity of cloud and the simplicity of an appliance. They are integrated by design and come with built in expertise gained from decades of experience to deliver a simplified IT experience. We were interested to see whether sites were taking advantage of this new technology. Only eight percent (up from last year s two percent) of respondents said they were. But no sites this year said that they planned to use PureSystems (last year the figure was two percent). We were also curious about the take up of business analytics (IBM s Smarter Analytics). Here just four percent of sites are currently using the technology and another five percent plan to. There s been a huge growth in the use of social media in recent years, and we wondered whether those people using their dad s technology found social media (Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, etc) useful for their work on the mainframe. 18 percent said that they did, with 13 percent not sure, and the Arcati Ltd, 2014
13 Arcati Mainframe Yearbook IFL ziip zaap None Chart 17: Specialty processors installed rest not using it at all. IBM has Facebook pages dedicated to IMS, CICS, and DB2, it seems a shame if they re not being used. With the growth in number of software products that allow users to monitor the mainframe from a browser on a tablet/ipad or smartphone, we thought it would be interesting to see whether our survey respondents were using these devices to monitor or control their mainframe. Only nine percent said that they were. Much has been made in the media about IPV4 addresses running out and the need for everyone to migrate to IPv6, which has many more addresses available. The change would require a lot of effort for manframers, but we wondered users had any plans to introduce IPv6 in Two percent of sites already have IPv6, with a further 13 percent planning to implement it in Another hot topic through 2013 has been Big Data and all the things associated with that (such as Hadoop). We asked whether sites had any plans to use Big Data. Again, two percent of sites said that they were already using Big Data, and a further 12 percent said that they plan to. Finally we asked about that current IT bête noire BYOD (Bring Your Own Device). We wanted to know how important sites thought it was to make mainframe data available to other platforms. 78 percent of sites said that it was very important to the way they work at the moment. Three percent are in the planning stage, and nine percent expect to do some work on this in the future. When it comes to how important is the idea of people using their own devices (BYOD) to access mainframes, 15 percent (up from last year s 10 percent) of sites said it was very important to the way they work now but 47 percent (up from last year s 30 percent) said it wasn t important. Only four percent (down from last year s 18 percent) are in the planning stages, and 19 percent expect to be in the future. Arcati Limited,
14 Yes, our data archiving strategy is fully compliant 17% 45% 13% 25% No, not at present Not yet, but we are implementing a compliance strategy We are almost fully compliant with the latest regulations Chart 18: Data archiving strategies that comply with the latest regulations CONCLUSIONS I have a theory about how to tell how good business has been in the past year. When you go to trade shows, you look at what companies are giving away on their stands. A few T-shirts, and some memory sticks means it s been a fairly ordinary year without too many big wins, but at least business has been done. If there are a whole range of goodies that you quite like the look of, I m thinking model racing cars and things like that, then you know it s been a bumper year with sales targets clearly exceeded. My impression this past year was that people were mainly giving away pens not a good sign. Having said that, many sites are clearly spending money. We found that 13 percent of respondents already owned the new z12bc processor. What was disappointing was the view about whether the mainframe was a strategic machine that would move the business forward, or whether it was a legacy box that simply ran the old software until something better came along. Nearly half (46 percent) of sites see the mainframe as a legacy system, with only 21 percent viewing it as strategic. 22 percent thought it was both and there were a few don t knows. 44 This more people view the mainframe as a legacy system, the less likely they are to use it for developing more modern applications. And again, that s what we found although there is always a lag between things appearing on slides in presentations and actually being used on the ground. Having said that, we found that the adoption of Big Data was only in use at two percent of sites with 12 percent planning to adopt it. Only 18 percent of sites use social media. And only none percent of sites were using tablet devices to monitor their mainframe. Similarly, only seven percent of respondents said that they currently use the mainframe for cloud computing and just 16 percent thinking they might in the foreseeable future And yet, there is plenty of evidence that mainframes should be used to support new development. Despite the complexity of mainframe pricing, the majority of respondents believe that their Unix and Windows user-support costs were increasing faster than the mainframe. Similarly, most sites felt their maintenance and acquisition costs were higher on Windows and Unix than on System z. But, yet again this year, we found that sites no longer use the mainframe as their principal repository for corporate data. Arcati Ltd, 2014
15 ArcatiMainframe MainframeYearbook Yearbook Arcati It seems that integrating mainframe applications with Web services and service-oriented architecture is a project that is in people s minds with the figure for mainframes participating partly or fully in Web services up this year. In terms of specialty processors, over three quarters of sites had them installed and were making use of the obvious benefits associated with them. 11 percent of sites had all three in use. For sites with smaller mainframes, particularly below 500 MIPS, there is always the option, or perhaps threat, of migrating off the mainframe to some other platform. Again this year, disappointingly, our survey showed this to be a strong possibility. The bottom line is that the mainframe continues to offer a cost-effective, secure, and powerful platform for organizations with the necessary background and expertise in place to support it. Moreover, there are strong indications that mainframe and non-mainframe professionals are still culturally divided within the enterprise. It seems that many sites using the hybrid machines are not making the most of them in terms of integration. Vendors are realizing that younger people moving into the mainframe environment aren t happy with green screens and expect to use GUI-based systems with a similar look-and-feel to Windows or Mac environments. It won t be long before the Android-style interface (or ipad) with its touch screen and hand gestures will become the interface of choice even for experienced mainframe professionals. Most importantly, non-mainframe IT staff and managers need to see the multitude of advantages that using a mainframe can bring to an organization in terms of security, reliability, availability, flexibility, as well as understanding the true total cost of ownership figures for the platform. Performance. Capacity. Cost Reduction. Why choose only one? Some say you can only have one: mainframe performance or mainframe capacity or mainframe cost control. We say that you can have all three. FIND OUT HOW info@dkl.com Arcati Limited,
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