Regional Economic Development Business Intelligence Report: Winter

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1 The Economy in Summary Regional Economic Development Business Intelligence Report: Winter Faced with severe global uncertainties, the UK economy has lost momentum. In the final quarter of 2015, real GDP increased by just 1.9% (year-on-year) whilst inflation averaged 0.1% and unemployment 5.1%. Against this background, the local economy is struggling to move forward, with more uncertainty dampening hiring and investment intentions. Dorset s economy is still expanding but the pace of recovery may be moderating. The new consensus is that global risks have increased (oil and China) and are likely to weaken UK and, thereby, Dorset s growth prospects in Depressingly, the Bank of England Governor is keeping monetary policy unchanged whilst, after barely two months, the Chancellor of the Exchequer has contradicted his own positive autumn statement. The economy grows sustainably when entrepreneurs are active, businesses are innovative, workers are skilled, markets are competitive and investment is buoyant. Driving productivity growth, these five factors fuel increases in profits and wages, underpinning long-term improvements in real incomes and overall living standards. The economy shrinks when policy errors and credit imbalances occur, dampening growth potential and undermining confidence. In early 2016, such fears have come to the fore, especially in financial and commodity markets. After the deep recession of 2008/9, the recovery has been patchy and weak. Because structural imbalances have not been addressed, the economy is highly vulnerable to a broad loss of confidence. Without more financial and productive restructuring, the risk is that growth will peter out. Nigel F Jump, Professor in Regional Economic Development 1 This is the fourth of a regular series of Business Intelligence Reports that BU produces for the Dorset and neighbouring business community and its partners.

2 The UK Economy Latest evidence Annual Quarterly Monthly Real GDP (%ch, yoy) +2.2 (2015) +1.9 (Q4) n.a. CPI inflation (%ch, yoy) 0.0 (2015) +0.1 (Q4) +0.2 (Dec) LFS unemployment (%) 6.2 (2014) 5.3 (Q3) 5.1 (Sep-Nov) Trade deficit ( bn) -34 (2014) -8.7 (Q3) -3.2 (Nov) Base rate (%) 0.5 (2015) 0.5 (Q4) 0.5 (Jan) Source: ONS The UK economic recovery is stuttering (see table above and chart below). Despite a drop in the unemployment rate to pre-recession levels, growth is moderating and a large trade deficit persists. Monetary policy is excessively loose and, with no overall inflation last year, ineffective in hitting its target. During the fourth quarter of 2015 and early 2016, business confidence has been constrained by: Adverse external news - (concerns about Chinese growth, debts and currency, the Middle East wars and exodus, and the stocks and commodity markets, as well as uncertainty about this year s US elections); Uncertainty about UK policy (the UK-EU negotiations/the BREXIT referendum, immigration issues, and if/when/how the Bank of England will raise interest rates); A series of business surveys, statistics and stories pointing to weaker activity, investment and hiring intentions, especially in manufacturing, energy (oil) and some business services. Growth, Inflation & Unemployment: 1989 Q Q4 Source: ONS: growth = real GDP % change year-on-year (yoy), Inflation = CPI % ch yoy, Unemployment = LFS % rate

3 As a result, many forecasters have lowered their expectations for Even the Chancellor of the Exchequer has warned about the risks of a decline in UK growth, with the stock markets and other financial markets starting the year in a very troubled mood. The economic fundamentals do not suggest an imminent return to recession. (For example, low oil prices should be a positive signal for growth: the current reaction seems perverse.) But, the recent loss of confidence means a minor recession cannot be ruled out during the next few years. Against this background, the lack of balance in the economy remains a threat. There are still large external and fiscal deficits. On average, households are carrying high debts levels. Moreover, the productivity and investment drivers are very weak. In the short term, modest real earnings growth is supporting domestic consumption but momentum is fragile and largely unsupported by the other elements of demand (investment, government and net trade). The engines of growth are the innovative drive of entrepreneurs, skilled workforces and competitive businesses, backed by investment in infrastructure and productive capacity. The incentives for these are helped by some certainty about structures, policies and market dynamics over the medium and long term, with support from demographic and technological change. At the moment, some of these factors (global political, policy and trading conditions, and population ageing) are tending to dampen rather than raise economic spirits, making the economy vulnerable to shocks. Throughout 2016, there is likely to be considerable debate about policy. What would a tighter UK monetary policy mean and where does the austere fiscal policy go from here? There is also going to be lots of debate about the UK s EU membership referendum. What would be the ramifications of a BREXIT vote for UK investment, trade and employment? Moreover, there is going to be close examination of immigration effects across Europe, of the effects of slowing growth on debts/banking in China, and of the likely economic policies of the US presidential nominees. We will consider these issues further as they unfold. For now, the key message is that uncertainty is the enemy of growth. Businesses and households tend to wait and see when the number of unknowns is large and prospects seem risky. On this basis, it will be surprising if the economy is stronger in 2016 than it was in 2015.

4 The Dorset Economy Since our last report, important structural data about the Dorset economy has been released. Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings (ASHE) In November, ONS provided annual data on employee pay across Dorset and its hinterland (for April 2015). These statistics are explored in detail in our Local Economy Briefing 7 (see link to BU website at the end of this document). In summary, employee median pay rates by residence varied from 372 per week in Purbeck to 406 per week in East Dorset. These rates compared with a SW average of 400 and a SE average of 468. On a workplace basis, the range was from 286 in Weymouth and Portland to 414 in Poole compared with respective regional averages of SW 391 and SE 447. Higher pay rates on a residence rather than workplace basis reflect, amongst other things, local commuting and housing patterns. This is especially true for Weymouth and Portland, where the differential between the relative medians is large ( 92). Poole is the main exception to this rule its workplace rates are above its residence rates because of net inward commuting. Relative average pay rates across Dorset are an indicator of comparative living standards. They are also an important measure of relative underlying economic performance and potential, reflecting the productivity of jobs, local sector characteristics and business competitiveness. In theory, the existence of pay differentials should encourage employers to shift operations to relatively low cost areas. In practice, wage differences tend to persist. Industries and workforces often cluster in a way that encourages high pay and skilled jobs to be associated, spatially, with other high paid jobs and skills. Such structural factors tend to solidify relative economic performance over time. It is hard for development agencies to shift them without intelligent and significant effort. Gross Value Added (GVA) and GVA per head In December, ONS released new GVA data for the UK regions, devolved administrations and lower geographies (latest 2014, with historical revisions). These statistics are the bedrock of most applied economic analysis below the national level (see Local Economy Briefing 8 for a summary of the details).

5 The latest data confirmed Dorset s characteristics. In 2014, Dorset produced total GVA (income based) of 16.2bn. In terms of Local Enterprise Partnerships, Dorset s economy was about the same size as Wiltshire s and half the size of Devon and Somerset (Heart of the South West) and Solent/Hampshire. Within Dorset, the county council area produced about 51% of total GVA and the two urban authorities (combined) 49%. In terms of GVA per head, Bournemouth and Poole (B&P - 23,254) performed better than the rest of Dorset (RoD - 19,719) last year. This is expected, reflecting the concentration of economic activity in the more urban parts of this, and indeed any economic and political area. Relative to the United Kingdom as a whole, B&P s GVA per head was 5.5% below average whereas the rest of Dorset was 19.9% below average. Both these comparative scores are fairly typical of such places. More worryingly, however, for both B&P and RoD, these comparative readings have tended to erode since the Great Recession (2008-9). On an industrial front, the table below shows the shares of total GVA accounted for by different sectors in There is some overlap (e.g. manufacturing is part of production) but the differences show the particular importance of financial services to B&P and of production to RoD. (N.B. some of that production is technically or administratively in RoD but, economically, is part of the East Dorset functional zone/conurbation (in Christchurch, East Dorset and Purbeck). Dorset s Industrial Structure: GVA % share, 2014 Dorset County Agriculture, forestry and fishing Production Manufacturing Construction Distribution; transport; accommodation & food Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Business service activities Public administration; education; health Other services and household activities All industries Bournemouth and Poole GVA millions Source: ONS Generally, the latest GVA figures show Dorset holding on to its relative status and maintaining its industrial structure. Without radical change, this pattern will persist. Radical change would require a sound, strategic vision for growth

6 of, and development in the Dorset economy beyond simplistic priority sector or cluster models of growth. Such a vision should embrace the need to raise private sector productivity, to increase engagement with new markets and technologies, and to build the quality of the environmental and human capital base across Dorset. Immediate Local Outlook More immediately, the local economy stuttered through the end of 2015 and entered 2016 with a mixed performance. Around Christmas and New Year, consumer spending was good, but not great. Export markets were soft and investment modest, whilst the public sector continued its broad austerity. Looking ahead, the latest surveys and anecdotal evidence suggest some business apprehension about the next few months. Overall, as indicated by the latest national and regional Purchasing Managers (PMI) surveys conditions are steady but at a lower level than those that prevailed a year ago. The chart below shows the run of SW output and employment PMI indicators since The key points are that: Both SW measures remain above 50: more than half of respondents are seeing output and jobs increase, pointing to continued net expansion in the economy at this time. Through 2015, both balances have moved below 55 back to the low levels observed in 2011/12 when the recovery appeared to falter. PMI indices - one of the better leading economic indicators are worth watching closely. Perhaps, confidence will rebound. Perhaps, the New Year gloom will persist. Perhaps, growth will stumble along at a modest rate between these extreme. Place your bets Weakening growth in SW England Source: Markit regional PMI for Lloyds

7 The Economic Outlook A number of forecasters, including this one, are now concerned that UK real GDP growth will fail to reach 2% in Consumption may hold up, given some real earnings growth, but investment and stock-building trends are modest, at best, and the government and external sectors are expected to be net drags on growth. In December, the Treasury s collection of independent forecasters averaged lower real GDP growth estimates for this year of 2.3% (see table below) and pointed to a modest slowdown over the next few years. Further downward adjustments to forecasts seem likely, however, given recent market developments and economic news already, we know the 2015 was 2.2% not 2.4%. UK Macro Forecasts: HM Treasury compilation of private sector views Growth Inflation Unemployment Source: HM Treasury January 2016 If we are to be surprised on the upside, businesses and households need positive news from somewhere. Right now, the macro/external risks seem skewed to the downside. In response, business attention will need to be centred on the fundamental realities of the micro/domestic environment being in your own and/or local markets rather than looking to UK or global growth overall. This and other business information publications relating to the local economy are available through the BU website at

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