Climate Change A Relevant Risk of Change

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1 Climate Change A Relevant Risk of Change Risk Prevention Congress 3 February Bruxelles Ernst Rauch Head of Department Windstorm/Weather/Climate Risks Geo Risks Research Munich Re Climate Change A Relevant Risk of Change Content - Natural Catastrophes: Loss Statistics - Climate Change: Scientific Basics - Risk Modeling: Hazard, Vulnerability, Probability of Loss - Consequences for the Insurance Industry

2 Natural Catastrophes: Loss Statistics Great Natural Disasters Economic and insured losses Economic losses (2006 values) Insured losses (2006 values) Trend economic losses Trend insured losses US$ bn NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

3 Great Natural Disasters Number of events Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption Storm Flood Temperature extremes (e.g. heat wave, wildfire) 10 Number NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re Great Natural Disasters 2005 Date Country/Region Event Fatalities Economic Insured losses (US$ m)* July-August India Floods 1,150 5, August USA Hurricane Katrina 1, ,000 61,000 September USA Hurricane Rita 10 16,000 12,000 October Middle America Hurricane Stan >840 3, October Pakistan. India Earthquake >88,000 5,200 5 October Mexico. USA Hurricane Wilma 42 20,000 12,400 *2005 values 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

4 Great Natural Disasters 2006 Date Country/Region Event Fatalities Economic Insured losses (US$ m) * Indonesia Earthquake 5,800 3, *2006 values 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re Great Natural Disasters Percentage distribution worldwide Number of events: 277 Deaths: 1.75 Million 6% 29% 7% 2% 25% 36% 55% Geological events Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption Weather related events 40% Economic losses: US$ 1,700bn* Insured losses: US$ 340bn* Storm Flood Temperature extremes 24% 6% 5% 4% 10% 31% *2006 values 39% 81% 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

5 Climate Change: Scientific Basics The greenhouse effect shortwave longwave Natural greenhouse effect: C Present additional greenhouse effect: C (some regions >1.5 C)

6 Global mean temperature 2005: +0,47 C second warmest year since 1850 The last 10 years with the exception of 1996, are the warmest years on record. The five warmest years in decreasing order are: 1998, 2005, 2002, 2003 and Future Change of Global Mean Temperatures Global mean temperatures, 2071 to 2100 compared to 1990: global mean 2085 = +3.1 o C (source: IPCC 2001) Compare differences in annual mean temperatures: Frankfurt (50 N): 9,4 C Bologna: 13,6 C Tunis: 17,7 C

7 CO 2 - Concentration in the Atmosphere Source: Paul Holper, CSIRO Australien (Oktober 1996): The greenhouse effect, Published in www:: Major greenhouse gases - important facts Gas Origin Anthropogenic share Effect Share of AGE* Relative greenhouse potential** Life period (years) CO 2 Carbon dioxide CH 4 Methane CFC Chlorofluorocarbons Natural sources Fossil fuel combustion Deforestation Moistand wetareas Rice growing Livestock farming Landfill sites Sprays Refrigerants Foaming agents 25% Greenhouse effect 50% % Greenhouse effect 13% % 24% 4,000-11, Greenhouse effect Ozone decomposition O 3 Ozone (tropospheric) Natural sources Traffic 75% 2,000 Greenhouse effect Impairment to health 8% days-months N 2 O Laughing gas Supersonic air traffic Fossil fuel combustion Agriculture 40% 5% Greenhouse effect Smog, acid rain Ozone decomposition CO Carbon monoxide Fossil fuel combustion Traffic 25% Greenhouse effect Smog See CO 2 1 months * AGE = Additional greenhouse effect ** Relative greenhouse potential per molecule in relation to CO 2 Source: Enquête Commission, German Bundestag, 1995.

8 Risk Modeling: Hazard, Vulnerability, Probability of Loss Principle of Risk Modeling Hazard Risk = Function Vulnerability Exposed Values

9 From Hazard to Risk individual portfolio/ liability data Munich Re vulnerability function/damage sensitivity hazard windfield set + + Wind speed risk curve PML-Graph (Loss in of TSI) Return period Comparison of Insured Losses from the Windstorm Series in 1990 and 1999 (Euro m)

10 European Winter Storms Latest event: January 18 19, 2007: Winter Storm Kyrill Insured losses: 5-7 bn (estimate as of January 26, 2007)

11 Example: Adjustment of Loss Distribution (pml- curve) as a Consequence of Changing Risk portfolio losses return period

12 Options of the Insurance Industry to Adjust to Changing Risk - Adjusting risk models for changing hazard situation - Improved accumulation control (reporting of realistic exposure figures) - Introduction of loadings for non-modeled hazards (also: loadings for super-cat events) - Improved claims handling (loss adjustment) Options of the Insurance Industry to Adjust to Changing Risk - Liability limits and deductibles - Exclusion of particularly exposed areas (e. g. flood zones) - Reinsurance, retrocession, ART

13 Thank you for your attention! Ernst Rauch Geo Risks Research Munich Re

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