The Role of the Mainframe in Tomorrow s Enterprise

Transcription

1 The Role of the Mainframe in Tomorrow s Enterprise Andrew Butler Vice President & Distinguished Analyst Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via vendor.relations@gartner.com. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

2 What Continues to Make the Mainframe Unique? High Capacity + Processor + I/O bandwidth + Scalability Energy Efficiency Green Credentials Reliability, Availability and Serviceability + Hardware + Software Operational Disciplines + 24/7 + Disaster/recovery + Security + Backup/recovery Mixed Workloads System Management Security + Hardware + Software + Integrity Perceived Shortcomings High hardware costs High software costs Proprietary operating system Not user-friendly

3 Positive Outcomes from Mainframe Market Trends Installed MIPS growth has averaged 10 to 20 percent per year (lets forget 2009!) MIPS Growth (& Revenue) driven by applications not on the mainframe ten years ago Top 25 (World) Banks, 23 of the top 25 (U.S.) retailers, 9 of the 10 largest (WW) Insurance providers use IBM mainframes Linux on z approx. 20% of net new MIPS being shipped Over 1,300 ISVs on System z today Over 500 ISVs and 3,000+ Applications for Linux on System z Facilities (power/cooling) now a mainframe competitive strength Leader in security, business resiliency, virtualization & utilization Academic Initiatives universities teach some mainframe courses - 20,000 new skills by 2010 (org. goal) - over 50,000 have taken at least some mainframe courses

4 Principal Mainframe Market Concerns Some organizations (mostly small organizations) leave the platform each year (but partly allayed by growth of first-time customers) Fewer IBM mainframes installed worldwide as ten years ago IBM is left alone to promote the new business potential of the mainframe ISVs reluctantly and slowly adopting sub-capacity software pricing algorithms - Priorities not necessarily the same Worries about graying of the mainframe skill set TCO not usually competitive on a single application comparison Perceptions hard to overcome: Slower to deploy, overly complex, proprietary, ISV lethargy, not cool

5 Single Largest Inhibitor to Mainframe Growth Within Data Centers Hardware costs 4% IBM software costs 18% Third-party software costs 32% Portfolio of the third-party applications 8% Graying of the skill set/ availability of trained mainfram 16% Sole source concerns 2% Perceived complexity of the mainframe 0% Management perception that the mainframe is outdated 20% 49 Voted

6 Server Market in Numbers Recovery Underway but Volatility in Many Segments SubSegment 2009 Revenue 2010 Revenue 2009 Share 2010 Share 2010 Growth Windows (Server) 5, , % 51.2% 7.5% HP-UX , % 8.6% 3.7% IBM AIX , % 8.5% 9.2% Linux (Server) , % 8.4% 16.6% IBM System z % 7.8% 2.8% Oracle Solaris % 6.2% -3.2% Other Proprietary OS % 6.1% -2.8% IBM System i % 2.7% 2.7% Other Proprietary Unix % 0.5% -39.6% Grand Total 11, , % 100.0% 5.7%

7 IBM Mainframe Market Has Always Been a Cyclical Story Mainframe Capacity Shipments Year Over Year Percentage change, as reported 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Mainframe Hardware Revenue Growth Year Over Year Percentage change, as reported 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

8 The Server Landscape Is Changing Fast for Vendors and Users Alike Operating System Revenue Shares of the Traditional System Vendors Oracle Unix Linux Windows 1H10 1H10 8% 1% 1H08 6% 1H08 1% 1H08 93% 1H10 91% Other = Mainly z/os, plus IBM "I." Also some minor x86 OS Other = Mostly OpenVMS & NSK. Also some minor x86 OS

9 IBM's Specialty Engines: The Catalyst for Growth Lower hardware prices now including memory! Investment protection on upgrades Lower software costs IBM and third party Create room for legacy applications to grow No additional staffing Continued expansion of use ziip Introduced in 2006 System z9 and z10 and z196 Initially certain database workloads Applicability expanding to other uses ISV support More than 500 ISVs and 3,000+ applications for Linux on z Linux on z more than 20% of MIPS being shipped Specialty engines (MIPS) now >20% of installed base zaap Introduced in 2004 Java workloads initially Applicability now expanding z890, z990, z9, z10, and z196 Starting with z10 merge with ziip IFL Introduced in through zenterprise 196 Went from 127 MIPS in 2000 to approximately 1200 MIPS in 2010

10 Mainframe Price & Performance Trends: Two Paths Diverge 120% IBM Cost per MIPS 100% 80% 60% General Purpose Special Purpose 40% 20% 0%

11 Desire For Use of Open Standards Growth in Linux on System z IFLs Shipped 2,000 1,500 1, IFL s equal 17% of WW installed mainframe MIPS 30-35% of System z users have IFLs installed Installed Base Linux MIPS 3,000 2, of MIPS 2,000 1,500 1, Also: Growth in Java on System z zaap Java performance

12 Market Reaction to Specialty Engines What percentage of your mainframe MIPS installed today are represented by IBM's specialty engines: 0% 1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 8% 18% 26% 35% Above 30% 13% 38 Voted What is the single largest inhibitor to your organization using Linux on z: The upfront costs of the hardware 5% Our software license costs would not benefit from a mainfram 15% The apps are not supported on the mainframe 19% Management does not want us putting more work on the main 15% We do not believe the workloads will run well on the mainfram 10% IBM has not provided us enough performance information to m 13% The granularity of the IBM specialty engines makes it difficult 5% Our Linux people are opposed to putting Linux on the mainfra 18% 39 Voted

13 zenterprise: A New Fabric zenterprise Unified Resource Manager IBM zenterprise 196 (z196) Management Network Data Network Unifies management of resources using HMC Part of the IBM System Director family, provides platform, hardware and workload management zenterprise BladeCenter Extension (zbx) Selected IBM POWER7 blades and IBM System x Blades* Up to 112 blades configured for HA Consistent toolset for management Dynamic management across platforms

14 zenterprise BladeCenter Extension (zbx) Two types of functions Provided - Accelerator/Appliance Blade support (Model 001 z10, Model 002 z196) Smart Analytics Optimizer for DB2 accelerator WebSphere DataPower Appliance (SOD 1H11) - Cross platform management (Model 002 z196 only) Power7 blades with AIX (No Linux support) x86 blades using Linux (no Windows support at launch, but planned for 2H11) zmanager Firmware in z196 - Uses consolidated Hardware Management Console - Uses PowerVM for AIX blades and KVM for x86 blades (download from firmware) - Infrastructure Management (two levels) Manage (core operational controls, installation, configuration) - Operational controls - Virtual server provisioning - Virtual network provisioning - Hypervisor Management - Energy Management Automate (Goal oriented monitoring/management of resources) - Performance monitoring and reporting - Workload context - Performance management - Energy controls - Advanced energy management - Availability monitoring and reporting - Availability management

15 The Fabric Path Forces Packaging and Implementation Decisions Fully Integrated Stack (eg: Oracle, HP, IBM) Prepackaged and Tested (eg: VCE, Oracle, HP, IBM) Application Stack DBMS Middleware Stack Stepwise Incremental Modular Integration (eg: Cisco, Dell, HP) Vertical Integration Operating System Virtualization Layer Fabric Resource Pool Manager Management Suite Compute Platform Storage Buy and Assemble Best-of-Breed Heterogeneous (eg: Most blade servers) Data Center Switches Corporate Network Horizontal Integration Note: There is no ideal approach to fabric integration. Many dependencies can exist.

16 Creating a Technology Dependency Matrix for Fabric Based Infrastructure

17 System z Solution Editions Building on the Solution Edition for SAP Special package pricing for IBM s most popular solutions - z10 HW (standalone footprint or isolated LPAR) - Prepaid HW maintenance - Comprehensive middleware stack (including S&S) - Services and Storage (as needed) Utilizing Mainframe quality: - System quality, security, availability and scale - Integration of applications with corporate data - Industry leading virtualization, management and resource provisioning - Designed for Investment protection Competitive acquisition prices & TCO Data Warehousing SAP ACI WebSphere Security GDPS Application Development Mainframe security, availability, and scale..priced to be competitive with UNIX alternatives

18 Why Can't System z be the Underlying Infrastructure for Cloud Computing? Public Cloud Drivers Acquisition Model Scale on demand Service Increased agility and flexibility Business Model Pay per use Pay for usage Higher compute capacities Access Model Elasticity Internet Time to market Technical Model Scalable, elastic, Private Cloud Drivers shareable Low barrier to entry Elastic and Scalable Lower cost and pay per use Increased agility (to customers) Ease of sourcing migations Many cloud benefits reduced risk Cloud Computing: A style of computing where massively scalable IT-enabled capabilities are delivered as a service to external customers using Internet technologies

19 Graying of the Mainframe Staff IBM's Academic Initiative Is Showing Results. IBM's program now more than six years old Number of higher education schools growing Be wary of student numbers Mastery exam is the key metric In the meantime: - Get HR involved - Invest in college relationships - Online course credits - Encourage mentoring assignments - Do your own in-house training and cross-training to enable flexible staff use - Talk to your ISVs Schools in program YE03 24 YE04 70 YE YE YE YE YE

20 TCO Easy to Spell, Hard to Calculate Reliability/availability Security Redundancy Recoverability Impact of planned outages Environmental characteristics (space, power, cooling) Take a multigenerational view! Time to deploy and time to refresh Scalability Consolidation capability Governance/inventory control Change management controls Application interoperability Test and development Cost of changing platform

21 Policy Regarding Non-x86 Platforms & Rationalization of Server Architecture? Mainframe, Unix & x86 all strategic Phasing out mainframe in favor of x86 or Unix No mainframes; Unix and x86 both strategic Phasing out Unix in favor of x86 or mainframe Only x86 is strategic 10% 12% 20% 26% 25% No architectural standards/policies 7%

22 Define and Police Your Own OS & Architecture Standards Immovable Mainframe Enterprise-Critical OLTP, Data Warehouse and Corporate Databases Application Servers Compute Crunchers Back-Office Applications Virtualized/Consolidation Hosts HVDs (Hosted Virtual Desktops) Web Servers Departmental Systems Branch Offices Point of Sale Installed Base Portfolio Migrations & New Projects

23 The IT Market Clock for Servers Disfavored Phase Reducing supplier choice Increasing costs Falling availability of relevant skills Focus on: Replacement Customized Phase Value/innovation focus Delivers differentiation Proprietary, high cost Requires skill and expertise Focus on: Advantage "time to next phase" <2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years >10 years End of life Commoditized Phase Industrialized and modularized offerings High level of substitution Competitive pricing Focus on: Cost Mass-Customized Phase Growing standardization Growing competition/falling prices Focus on: Choice

24 What Word Best Describes the Mainframe?

25 The Role of the Mainframe in Tomorrow s Enterprise Andrew Butler Vice President & Distinguished Analyst Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via vendor.relations@gartner.com. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.