GFPA s Experiences, Challenges & Lessons Learned. Dr. Peter Wagner German Fire Protection Association

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1 GFPA s Experiences, Challenges & Lessons Learned Dr. Peter Wagner German Fire Protection Association

2 "... never ever another factor will play such an important role in the human civilization as the fire did and continues to do.... GUSTAV EFFENBERGER IN THE BOOK DIE WELT IN FLAMMEN (THE WORLD IN FLAMES, 1913)

3 Who is German Fire Protection Association (GFPA)? Vereinigung zur Förderung des Deutschen Brandschutzes e.v. German Fire Protection Association (GFPA) Association au bénéfice de la protection d incendie allemande

4 What do GFPA? we work on the solution of various safety problems we support the most various research plans to this we publish guidelines and recommendations. we help with the list of definition of national, European and international norms (DIN, CEN, ISO) we train

5 About the expert Peter Wagner Berlin Fire Brigade Active in Fire Service since 1982 Engineer of Fire Prevention and Safety Doctor of Technical Science Deputy Head of the Berlin Fire and Rescue Academy

6 About the expert Member of GFPA (Risk analyze, Stastistics, Computer Simulation of Fire Services) Member of CTIF (Head of Centre of Fire Statistics) Cooperation with F.E.U and EFA Member of National Academy of Fire Safety Sciences of Russia International expert for Disaster Management

7 Human Race and Dangers The very Past natural dangers earthquakes, floods, storms, forest fires, wild animals. The very Past? social dangers increasingly aggressive collisions between different groups of people (kinships, hordes, tribes up to nationalities) wars

8 Human Race and Dangers Intellectual development of humankind in the very past Control of the fire Handicraft Development of production processes and technologies Development of construction processes etc. New kinds of dangers Fires Collapses of buildings Uncontrolled leakage of poisonous substances during production or transportation processes mass illnesses and epidemic diseases

9 Human Race and Dangers End of the 18 th / beginning of the 19 th century industrial revolution more complex - group of dangers ever faster spreading scientific-technologic progress intensive socio-economic changes chemicals, radioactivity, information collapses etc. 20 th and beginning of the 21 st century, V.I. VERNADSKIJ (Russia): the human being, his brain becomes global, reaches geological power, which will change the face of our earth. environment protection, the utilisation of new types of energy, the conquest of the oceans the exploration of outer space Water and food problems

10 Dangers for Humankind at the beginning of the 21 st century cosmic dangers - the collision of the earth with different cosmic objects (such as comets, asteroids etc.), ecological dangers - global changes of the climate, broadening of desert areas, soil erosion, consumption of natural and biological resources, contamination of the environment and other more, natural dangers - all kinds of natural disasters, technological dangers - accidents, explosions, fires and other disasters, biological, economic, social, political dangers, dangers generated by wars and information losses (internet etc).

11 Hazards under real life conditions

12 Hazards under real life conditions

13 Hazards under real life conditions

14 Hazards under real life conditions

15 Hazards under real life conditions

16 Hazards under real life conditions

17 Hazards under real life conditions

18 Data Sources International Fire Statistics

19 Triage Danger - Risk Safety Danger - that is first of all the possibility (or the inclination) of the appearance of a damage in relation to any protection object, and second a characteristic of the environment. Here, no answer is given about against whom or what the danger is directed. Danger (Hazard, Emergency Call) Risks of all types (Analysis and assessment) Risk Management Safety of the protection object

20 Triage Danger - Risk Safety Risk that is the possible danger of a misfortune, the probability or frequency of harmful effects, the expected damage, a quantitative measure of endangerments, the possibility of unwanted consequences, the potential danger of the realisation of hazardous incidents, the measure of possible endangerments and the consequences of their realisation, the possibility (probability) of the occurrence of a dangerous situation. Danger (Hazard, Emergency Call) Risks of all types (Analysis and assessment) Risk Management Safety of the protection object

21 Hazards under real life conditions Danger (Hazard, Emergency Call) Risks of all types (Analysis and assessment) Risk Management Safety that is the condition of a protection object against different kinds of danger. Safety of the protection object

22 Fire Risks lessons learned? Human Memory of Fire Disasters: Great Fire of London 1666 more than 13,000 buildings were destroyed

23 Fire Risks lessons learned? Human Memory of Fire Disasters: Church Fire of La Compania (Chile, December, 8, 1836) - about 2,500 deaths

24 Fire Risks lessons learned?

25 Fire Risks lessons learned? Human Memory of Fire Disasters: Fire storm in San Francisco (USA) after earthquake, April, 18, 1906

26 Fire Risks lessons learned? Human Memory of Fire Disasters: Fire disaster at the Summerland-Park (Isle of Man, August, 2, 1972) - 50 deaths

27 Fire Risks lessons learned? Human Memory of Fire Disasters: Cinema Rex Fire in Abadan (Iran) killing over 400 people in August, 20, 1978

28 Fire Risks lessons learned? Human Memory of Fire Disasters: May, 11, 1985, Valley- Parade Fire (Stadium) in Bradford (UK) - 56 deaths

29 Reconstruction and forecast of the number of fires (F) and fire deaths (D) in the world from year 0 to F 70 F D D Y

30 The future seems is open but we are able to forecast

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