International Polar Year

Transcription

1 International Polar Year Norway-Japan Polar seminar Tokyo, 26 April 2010 Dr. Olav Orheim Research Council of Norway

2 Contents of this presentation: The International Polar Year (IPY) Achievements, with focus on ice Next steps in international collaboration SIOS Svalbard platform The IPY-Oslo Science Conference

3 A great variety of activities, as presented by the IPY office in Cambridge

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5 Two examples of large IPY projects: 1) The Integrated Arctic Ocean Observing System IAOOS For the first time observed the whole coupled ocean, ice and atmosphere system for the Arctic Ocean. A very ambitous plan, involved nearly all research icebreakers Loss of sea ice not anticipated!

6 2) MEOP both biology and oceanography

7 Tracks of Norwegian tagged hooded seals Barents Sea

8 New knowledge on the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet

9 And for the Antarctic

10 The land part of the Arctic has permafrost and summer melt. Climate change will affect structures will not improve access on land indigenous, mostly in small settlements 3.7 million non-indigenous in villages and cities

11 The Arctic Ocean is a different story - is becoming accessible! Huge changes in area

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14 Up to 24 April 2010

15 Arctic sea ice extent, models and reality

16 IPY has led to large improvements in model predictions

17 Northern Sea Route This was the classic way of representing the route for ships across the Arctic Ocean. But...

18 Crossing the Arctic Ocean in international waters possible in First western ships from Bering St. to Nenets in Sept Icefreewaters, 10 Sept Yokohama-Bering Straight: 2200 nm = 4 ½ days at 21 knots Bering Stright-Melkøya: 3000 nm = 6 days Note Lomonosov Ridge

19 Sea ice coverage 4 October 2009

20 Reduced sea ice and increased access leads to new technical and human challenges Sea ice, icing from sea-water spray, icebergs and growlers, seasonal darkness New knowledge needed on environment, surveillance, safety of operations, etc

21 First to move into an ice free Arctic Ocean will not be the commercial shipping, but adventurous tourists. Last year saw the first attempt to paddle to the North Pole. Note polar bear

22 Increased access can mean personell without Arctic experience potentially a new hazard!

23 The Arctic is now the showcase for climate change. Blomstrandbreen, Svalbard, in 1928 Sea level will rise because of melting glaciers. It is now rising 4 mm annually. S h o w n Showing the changes to Hilary Clinton and in 2002 t o

24 Global feed-back consequences A global warming of 2 C means 5 C in the High Arctic. Such warming would remove much snow and ice in the north, and potentially lower global albedo from 30% to 27%. This could raise global temperatures as much as a five-fold increase in CO2. And what happens to methane when permafrost melts? Tipping point?

25 The scientists: next IPY in 25 years Because: the rapid changes need require joint effort sooner. WMO: International Polar Decade Because: decadel climate change Need international cooperation Meets important societal challenges

26 Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS) Coordinated by the Research Council of Norway SI O S

27 SIOS in a nutshell Build interdisciplinary research infrastructure to provide basis for verification of Earth System models in the Arctic The central European element of a Sustained Arctic Observing System (SAON) SIOS Knowledge Centre will collect, aggregate and quality control observational data and provide them to the user community For more details: see SIOS presentation at: ge&cid= &pagename=sios%2fhovedsi demal SI O S

28 SIOS Conceptual Structure Selected end users: Policy makers, NGOs ACIA IPCC Integrating platform Observational platforms Selected contributing organizations European government policy boards EU Knowledge Centre Atmospheric UNIS NP AWI Marine Terrestrial CNR IGFPAS NERC Space AARI NIPR OS SI...

29 Extensive infrastructure in place Research organizations from 15 countries operate a wide variety of land and sea-based facilities, the great majority in Ny-Ålesund University studies in Longyearbyen - students and staff from 25 countries Advanced infrastructure and mild climate makes Svalbard accessible year-round Svalbard has the highest available data bandwidth in the High Arctic SI O S

30 The polar conference for this generation! Polar Science Global Impact Results of all IPY-activities will be presented in Oslo 8-12 June 2010

31 Participation: 2500 presentations Between 2000 and 3000 participants, including 500 Early Career Scientists Researchers from 50 countries will discuss important and relevant topics Largest groups: US 400, Canada and Norway 300, Russia 200. Japan 57

32 IPY Oslo Science Conference some goals: Gather the global community of Polar Researches, to show the freshest results of Polar Research, and to meet and strengthen their professional and social networks. Discuss new scientific initiatives, such as International Polar Decade, 25 years on to next IPY. Stimulate new interdisciplinary polar research

33 Registration, social programme, excursions Registration includes lunch and coffee breaks, abstract-handling, local transport. Social activities include ice-breaker i Town Hall on Monday 7th, Barbeque at the polar ship Fram Museum on 9th, Polar festival i Oslo centre on 9th and 10th. Excursions to Svalbard before the conference. Afterwards north to the Sami areas, and to the western fjords with the Norwegian Glacier Museum:

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35 Has been a huge puzzle to get in place 1200 oral presentations in 16 parallel streams. Numerous side events include 2- day workshops for teachers and Early Career Scientists prior to conference