Entering the Arctic why now? New York, 24th June 2010 Dr. Olav Orheim Research Council of Norway

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1 Entering the Arctic why now? 23rd Marine Money Week New York, 24th June 2010 Dr. Olav Orheim Research Council of Norway

2 Contents of the presentation: The Arctic environment and Arctic politics Oil prices and climate change are creating new opportunities for petroleum and for shipping Challenges and uncertainties New knowledge from research during the International Polar Year

3 The Arctic is commonly defined as the area where the temperature of the warmest month is below 10 C. This red line does not follow the latitude. The Arctic is dominated by snow and ice.

4 A land of permafrost and summer melt. Climate change will affect structures and will not improve access on land indigenous, mostly in small settlements 3.7 million non-indigenous in villages and cities

5 Much of the Arctic environment is in good shape Example: The Barents Sea is still clean and rich! Large sustainable fisheries The world highest density of sea birds The only completely protected polar bear population (~3000) Healthy, large colonies of whales, seals, walrus The largest impacts on the marine ecosystem are from fihi fishing and dlong distance dit transported td pollution B. Gulliksen

6 The relatively few High Arctic species are well adjusted and resilient to the environment. They may not be able to survive new challenges, such as fat-soluble pollutants. Seabird colonies in the Barents Sea Region

7 The Svalbard reindeer is fat, and moves slowly to conserve energy. Very different from those used by Father Christmas!

8 International and national legal issues: Barents Sea (Nor-Rus.) Russia-USA? USA-Canada NW-passage Canada-Greenland/DK - Hans Island Svalbard no case? Lomonosov/North o osov/ o Pole? Future deciding nations: 5, 8, 8+? The 8% indigenous have subsoil rights in Canada. New developments in Greenland.

9 A number of internationally binding agreements and conventions, foremost UNCLOS and IMO Interpretation of UNCLOS art. 234?: Coastal sates have right to enforce non-discriminatory regulations for prevention of marine pollution from vessels in ice-covered areas within EEZ where particularly severe climatic conditions and ice covering creates obstructions or exceptional hazards. (Abbreviated text.)

10 The World s Petroleum Potential USGS 2000 estimate: Verdens uoppdagede petroleumspotensiale N. Afrika North Kaspihavet Africa Midt-Østen Midde East Resten av of verden the world Arktis Arctic The Barents Sea 2. Southern Kara Sea 1: Barentshavet 2: and SørligeWestern Karahavet og Siberia Vest-Sibir 3: Nordlige Karahavet 4: Laptevhavet 5: Øst-Sibirhavet 6: Chuchihavet 7: Alaska North Slope 8: Øst-Grønnland 3. Northern Kara Sea 4. The Laptev Sea 5. East Siberian Sea 6. The Chukchi Sea 7. Alaska North Slope 8. East Greenland Since then, large increase in price of oil!

11 USGS Dec update: 22% of undiscovered petroleum is in the Arctic. Mostly gas. Well-known to this audience!

12 Blomstrandbreen, Svalbard, in 1928 Sea level l will rise because of melting S glaciers. h It is now rising 4 mm o annually. w n and in Shown to Hilary Clinton and other US senators four years ago t o

13 Climate challenges is much more than the symbolic species Can the Arctic cope with rapid change? Changing ecosystems, especiall lower orders Acidification Polar bears/traditional way of life possibly overstated Climate change occurs together with other changes pollutants, overfishing, land

14 Temperature on earth from 1850 to 2009 The decade was the warmest ever The decade was the warmest ever, og all recent years have been over the average is the warmest so far, but the warming is still continuing!

15

16 Global feed-back consequences A global warming of 2 C means 5 C in the High Arctic. Such warming would remove much snow and ice in the north, and potentially lower global albedo from 30% to 27%. This could raise global temperatures as much as a five-fold increase in CO2. And what happens to methane when permafrost melts? Tipping point?

17 Nansen s crossing of the Arctic Ocean with Fram in could not be done today. With ice conditions like in 2007, 08 and 09, Fram would have come out of the ice after half a year.

18 The Arctic Ocean is becoming accessible Huge changes in area

19 Arctic sea ice extent, models and reality

20 Up to 22 June 2010

21 Up to 22 June 2010

22

23

24

25

26 Northern Sea Route This was the classic way of representing the route for ships across the Arctic Ocean. But...

27 Crossing the Arctic Ocean in international waters possible in First western ships from Bering St. to Nenets in Sept Ice free waters, 10 Sept Yokohama-Bering Straight: 2200 nm = 4 ½ days at 21 knots Bering Stright-Melkøya: 3000 nm = 6 days Note Lomonosov Ridge

28 Sea ice coverage 4 October 2009

29 Arctic Ocean sea ice 10 and 20 years earlier

30 Reduced sea ice and increased access leads to new technical and human challenges Sea ice, icing from sea-water spray, icebergs and growlers, seasonal darkness New knowledge needed on environment, surveillance, safety of operations, etc

31 First to move into an ice free Arctic Ocean will not be the commercial shipping, but adventurous tourists. Last year saw the first attempt to paddle to the North Pole. Note polar bear

32 Increased access can mean personell without Arctic experience potentially a new hazard!

33 t 2100 presentations enormous breadth of new knowledge. See

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