Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and Metallic Design Alternatives. Dr. Christopher Rush Joe Falque Karen McRitchie

Transcription

1 Real Time Cost Impact Assessment of Composite and Metallic Design Alternatives Dr. Christopher Rush Joe Falque Karen McRitchie

2 Overview Introduction Composite Structures New Challenges Background and Related Research Cost Estimating Challenges, Parametric Cost Modeling Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM SEER-DFM Examples Analysis of Transmission Servo Piston Composite and Metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender Summary and Conclusions 2

3 Objective Introduce the SEER-DFM cost model methodology for developing composite and metallic cost trade study analyses 3

4 Introduction Composite technology is evolving Engineers are less familiar with composite structures and processes compared to traditional metallic processes Presents new set of design and cost modeling challenges Cost Commitment (see next slide) Composite Affordability Initiative (CAI) sought to address these issues SEER-DFM embodies 30 composite processes along side 70 more traditional manufacturing processes Provides a framework to perform real time cost trade studies 4

5 Cost Commitment % of product cost is committed during product concept phases Cost Cost committed Scope for Production Cost Reduction. Most cost incurred during production phases Scope for cost reduction reduces in product phase 70-80% of Costs Concept phases Production Phase Cost incurred Time 5

6 Background and Related Research Cost Estimating Challenges Limited amount of data during development phases, high uncertainty and expected error Accounting for technology changes Requirements to show how cost estimates were derived risks, assumptions, uncertainty Estimates need to follow a consistent reliable process 6

7 Background and Related Research Parametric Cost Modeling Dates back to the 1950 s; introduced by the RAND Corporation for the US Air Force widely used by Government and Industry Uses historical samples to establish relationships Uses the past to predict the future Sometimes called Statistical Estimating Linear regression most popular & simplest technique y = a + b(x) Typically used during the product development stages Reduces time required to produce estimates 7

8 Background and Related Research Cost estimating relationship example MASS vs. COST MASS vs. COST COST = * MASS COST = * MASS Correlation: r = Correlation: r = COST COST MASS MASS 8

9 Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM Design for manufacture (DFM) Practice of designing with manufacturing in mind Emphasis on multidisciplinary teams, supersedes sequential product development process $ Opportunities to Improve NO Completed Design Manufacture Market Profitable Product? YES $ 9

10 Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM Production Engineering Stress Cost System Engineering Design Customers Reliability Product Suppliers Partners Product Support Maintainability Procurement Aerodynamics Systems computing Quality Assurance Integrated product teams reduce the likelihood of costly engineering changes Phases when changed Cost Design $1,000 Design Testing $10,000 Process Planning $100,000 Test Production $1.000,000 Final Production $10.000,000 10

11 Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM DFM saves companies money % 34% Savings % % 10 7% 7% 5 0 <5% 5-10% 11-20% 21-30% >30% Respondents 11

12 Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM Process based parametric cost modeling Applies the parametric concept to manufacturing processes Machining Conventional & High Speed; Milling; Shaping; Turning; Boring; Grinding; Screw Machining; EDMing; Drilling; Reaming; Tapping; Sawing; Broaching; Gear Hobbing; Deburring; Coring Fabrication Shears-Brakes; Punches; CNC Turret; Laser Cut; Gas Flame Cut; Plasma Arc Cut; Dedicated tool & Die; Progressive Die; Spin Forming; Tube Bending; Plate Roll Bending Composites Layup; Filament Winding; Pulltrusion; Composite Spray PC Board Assembly Board Fabrication; PCB Assembly/Solder Finishing Air Gun Spray; Thermal Spray; Electrostatic; Vacuum Metalize; Dip; Chromate/Phosphate; Electrocoat; Electroplate; Brush Electrical Assembly Cable; Harness Mechanical Assembly Fasteners; Riveting/Staking; Gas Flame Welding; Arc, MIG, TIG Welding; Electron Beam Welding; Spot Welding; Brazing; Adhesive Bonding Mold/Cast/Forge Injection Molding; Rotational Molding; Thermoform Molding; Sand Casting; Die Casting; Investment Casting; Forging; Powdered Metals 12

13 Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM Extended CAI Processes Composites Hand Layup Filament Winding Tow Placement P4A Braiding 3D Weave Assembly Fasten Fit-up Drill E-Beam Assembly Paste Bond 3D Reinforcement Automated Assembly Cure Autoclave RTM VARTM E-Beam Fabrication Fabrication SPF/ DB Sheet Metal Trim Tooling 13

14 Design for Manufacture and SEER-DFM Process based parametric cost modeling When integrated with the design process cost becomes an optimization variable Perform real time cost trade studies during design process Design Requirements - Cost Target, Function, performance, etc. Define Requirements Analyze Function and Performance Perform alternative analysis using SEER-DFM Execute Against Plan No Do we meet requirements Yes Establish implementation requirements 14

15 SEER-DFM Case Studies DFM Analysis of Transmission Servo Piston Study goals Ascertain manufacturing costs Evaluate tradeoffs using DFM principles Study began with a rough sketch Processes modeled using work elements e.g. machining, fabrication, and assembly Part modeled by creating a work breakdown structure 15

16 SEER-DFM Case Studies Describe major components of transmission servo piston, and their assembly Describe each component with respect to the people, product, and processes required to manufacture and/or assemble it Reduce data input with knowledge bases Pre defined templates of inputs 16

17 SEER-DFM Case Studies Output estimate results using charts and reports Reports and charts illustrate that most cost is related to machining labor SERVO PISTON P/N 2-10A: Cost Allocation Labor: 70.59% Material: 27.89% Molding: 0.10% Tooling: 1.42% 17

18 SEER-DFM Case Studies Alert function suggests consider casting instead of raw stock reduce part count consolidate Change parameter detail inputs for real time cost impact assessment Option Unit Cost Option 1 - Machined Shaft Option 2 - Die Cast Shaft Option 3 - Die Cast Shaft / Retainer Material Cost/Unit $ $ $ Total Labor Cost/Unit $ $ $ Tooling Cost/Unit $ $ $ Total Cost/Unit $ $ $ Total Cost (1,650,000 Units) Savings 1 $ $11,097, $ $10,381,140 ($716,760) 3 $ $10,353,915 ($743,985) Including spring retainer as part of the casting = more complex cast, but reduced assembly cost 18

19 SEER-DFM Case Studies Composites and metallic DFM analysis of SUV Fender Considers 3 options: Fabrication of steel fender Fabrication of aluminium fender Composite manufacture using P4 process and RTM curing Assumptions 180,000 production run Manufacturing labor rate US$100 Assembly labor rate US$75 19

20 SEER-DFM Case Studies P4 (Programmable Powdered Preform Process) Developed for automotive GM use P4 to cost effectively manufacture Silverado truck cargo Process time 4 minutes 20

21 SEER-DFM Case Studies Spray cut fibres and powdered binder on to a preformed, perforated screen tool Vacuum and chopper head pressure ensure uniform layup thickness Hot air is blown through a consolidation tool to melt the powdered binder on the preform Preform is then ready for resin infusion - RTM 21

22 SEER-DFM Case Studies P4 parameter inputs RTM inputs 22

23 SEER-DFM Case Studies Trade off analysis P4 process reduces time by 50% P4 process reduces labor cost by 36% Reduced material costs 45% compared to aluminium 2% compared to steel Reduced total cost 42% compared to aluminium 21% compared to steel Option Despite increased P4 tooling cost per unit Effect on bottom line Total savings $553,264 Unit Cost Total Cost (180,000 Units) Savings 1 $ $2,580, $ $3,486,654 $906,354 3 $ $2,027,016 ($553,284) 23

24 SEER-DFM Case Studies Estimate Probability All estimates have a degree of uncertainty Model uncertainty using least, likely, most inputs Output a range of possibilities for management decisions 24

25 Summary and Conclusions Introduced a process based parametric cost model methodology Cost model integrates cost as design variable Perform numerous real time cost impact assessments Achieve optimum design through informed DFM decisions Methodology is used to assess cost impact of composite and metallic design options 25

26 Contact Details Christopher Rush Galorath Incorporated 100 N Sepulveda Blvd, Suite 1801 El Segundo, CA Tel: CRush@Galorath.com Website: 26