The ClimWatAdapt IAF: Conceptualisation and integration of mdss

Transcription

1 The ClimWatAdapt IAF: Conceptualisation and integration of mdss a collaborative work by Carlo Giupponi Bruxelles 04/10/2010 Universita' Ca' Foscari di Venezia DSE - Center for Environmental Economics and Management

2 CLimWatAdapt: Climate Adaptation modelling water scenarios and sectoral impacts Tender DGENV.D.2/SER/2009/0034 Objectives To put in place an integrated assessment framework To analyse a set of comprehensive scenarios To identify and assess potential adaptation measures To involve experts and stakeholders

3 Reference conceptual models from policy documents EEA UNECE

4 Preliminary development of cognitive maps 1/2 EEA UNECE

5 Preliminary development of cognitive maps 2/2 Allocation of ClimWatAdapt activities UNECE

6 Integration of policy models within the IAF

7 CmapTools as the main user interface Web-based conceptual map as the main interface to navigate through the steps of the assessment Nodes are linked to documents describing the components, websites additional conceptual maps DB interfaces, tools maps, graphs

8 Data export tool A web-based data base interface provides access to model results and background data. The user can define a selection of variables, time slices, scenarios and spatial units and export/download the data as shapefile for the vulnerability assessment using mdss

9 Adaptation Measures Viewer The web-based Adaptation Measure Viewer provides background information on measure. Measure can be selected according to filtering rules.

10 screening measures database (Excel) Technical options Economic/legal/ information instruments national regional local floods scarcity quality snow water agriculture forestry energy other Assessment with MulinoDSS

11 Evaluation criteria effectiveness: to what extent does the measure reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts economic effects: what are the investment/ operational/transaction/social costs side-effects: which other positive or negative effects other than reduced vulnerability and economic impacts does the measure have? flexibility: to what extent can the measure be adjusted/complemented/reversed when resulting to be inadequate or inappropriate acceptance: how feasible is the implementation of the measure taking into account issues such as public acceptance?

12 Demo of mdss applications CASE 1: use by local experts Bruxelles 04/10/2010

13 Background The end user has previously identified a subset of measures of interest by querying the ClimWatAdapt Database of Adaptation Measures. With this set in minds s/he launches mdss. NOTE: values obtained group work at CMCC

14 Elements of the IAF activated in case 1

15 Setting the evaluation context

16 Filling the data needs

17 Analysing the results

18 Demo of mdss applications CASE 2: use of models Bruxelles 04/10/2010

19 Background The end user has previously defined a set of combinations of measures of interest and launched ad hoc model simulations. This case is developed upon the SCENES scenarios Economy first; Policy Rules; and Sustainability eventually. The combinations of measures analysed are those behind the realisation of the scenarios NOTE: quasi dummy values from SCENES databases

20 Elements of the IAF activated in case 2

21 Setting the evaluation context

22 Filling the data needs

23 Analysing the results