State unemployment rate declines to 5.7% in July; nonfarm jobs up 1,700

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1 appears Office of Research Scott D. Jackson, Commissioner FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 2016 Data CT Unemployment Rate = 5.7% US Unemployment Rate = 4.9% State unemployment rate declines to 5.7% in July; nonfarm jobs up 1,700 WETHERSFIELD, August 18, 2016 Preliminary Connecticut nonfarm job estimates from the business survey administered by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show the state added 1,700 jobs (0.10%) during July 2016 to a level of 1,693,000, seasonally adjusted. Since July 2015, nonagricultural employment in the state has grown by approximately 20,200 positions (1.21%, 1,683 jobs per month). June s originally released job gain of 7,900 (0.47%) was revised down to 5,800 (0.34%). Year-to-date seasonally adjusted job growth is 13,000 through July. Connecticut s unemployment rate for July 2016 was calculated at 5.7%, seasonally adjusted (based on the CPS - Current Population Survey and statistical models). This is down one-tenth of a percentage point from the revised June 2016 rate of 5.8% but higher by three-tenths of a percentage point from a year ago (5.4%). The number of the state s unemployed declined by 1,904 (-1.7%) in July. There is uniformly good news in our employment surveys last month, said Andy Condon, Director of the Office of Research. Payroll jobs grew. Our labor force grew and we saw our unemployment rate decline for the first time since August of last year. Nonfarm Jobs Detail (business establishment survey) July 2016 preliminary seasonally adjusted nonfarm job estimates reveal a 1,700 (0.10%) monthly job gain, as five of the ten major industry supersectors added jobs. Since July 2015, the state has increased nonagricultural employment by 20,200 positions (1.21%) with all ten major industry supersectors contributing to job gains. Private sector employment in the state, at 1,453,700, was up by 3,000 (0.21%) in July and higher by 20,100 jobs (1.40%, 1,675 jobs per month) over the year. The government supersector lost 1,300 jobs (-0.54%, 239,300) last month but still remains slightly positive over the year (100, 0.04%). Five of the ten major industry supersectors increased nonfarm jobs in July 2016 and five declined on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality (1,700, 1.1%, 154,600 jobs) and the trade, transportation & utilities (1,700, 0.6%, 298,200 jobs) added the most jobs last month. Restaurants and accommodations (1,500, 1.2%, 125,700 jobs) boosted leisure while retail trade (1,300, 0.7%, 182,200 positions) rebounded in trade and transportation, after declining two months in a row. Leisure and hospitality (3,900, 2.6%) now leads in numeric job growth over the year. The professional and business services supersector (1,200, 0.5%, 219,400) added positons as well, on the strength in administrative services (1,800, 2.0%, 90,300 jobs). Smaller job gains came from the other services (400, 0.6%, 67,500 jobs) and the manufacturing (300, 0.2%, 159,900 positions) supersectors. The small other services supersector leads the ten major industry supersectors in percentage growth over the year (3,500, 5.5%). The government (-1,300, -0.5%, 239,300) supersector led all declining employment industry supersectors in July. Local (-1,000, -0.7%, 151,300 jobs) and state (-300, -0.4%, 70,300 positions) government were both lower while the federal government was unchanged. The private education and health services (-900, -0.3%, 328,400 jobs) supersector posted the next largest monthly job decline. The construction and mining (-600, -1.0%, 58,600 jobs) industry supersector was also lower for the second month in a row. Smaller job losses also arose from the information (-500, -1.5%, 33,500) and the financial activities (-300, -0.2%, 133,600) supersectors. Recession recovery: Connecticut has now recovered 98,800 positions, or 83.0% of the 119,100 seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs that were lost in the state during the March February 2010 employment recession. The state needs to reach the 1,713,300 seasonally adjusted job mark to enter an employment expansion. This will require 20,300 additional nonfarm jobs to be created. Connecticut s nonfarm jobs recovery is now 77 months old and is averaging roughly 1,283 jobs per month since February 2010.

2 2 Connecticut s private sector has reclaimed employment at a better pace, recovering 107,200 (96.0%, about 1,392 jobs per month) of the 111,700 private sector positions that were lost during that same employment downturn. The government supersector has lost another 8,400 positions since the employment recovery began in February 2010, in addition to the 7,400 jobs the sector lost in the recession (Native American employment on reservations, including casinos, are calculated in local government in Connecticut). Connecticut Labor Market Areas (LMAs): Nonfarm employment gains were calculated in three of the four Connecticut labor market areas (LMA s, NECTA s in England - England City and Town Areas) that are seasonally adjusted by the BLS, while the Norwich- London-Westerly LMA was unchanged at 128,800. The largest Connecticut labor market area, the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford LMA (1,900, 0.3%, 575,100 jobs) posted the best regional employment gain last month, while the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk LMA (700, 0.2%, 415,200) and the Haven LMA (200, 0.1%, 284,400 jobs) exhibited smaller monthly job gains as well. Over the year, the Haven LMA (5,100, 1.8%, 284,400 jobs) now leads in yearly percentage job growth (1.8%) while the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford LMA (6,600, 1.2%, 575,100) now leads in numeric job growth (6,600). All four of these seasonally adjusted NECTA s are adding jobs over the year. Note: Six major Connecticut LMAs are estimated independently from the statewide data by the BLS and cover more than 90% of the nonfarm employment in the state. Thus estimates will not fully sum to the statewide total. Only four of the six BLS estimated labor markets are seasonally adjusted. The Danbury LMA and the Waterbury LMA are not seasonally adjusted at this time due to a recent geography change. Hours and Earnings: The private sector workweek, not seasonally adjusted, averaged 33.6 hours in July 2016, up two-tenths of an hour from the same month a year ago (0.6%). Average hourly earnings at $30.15, not seasonally adjusted, were up $1.35, or 4.7%, from the July 2015 hourly earnings estimate ($28.80). The resultant average private sector weekly pay amounted to $1,013.04, up $51.12, or 5.3% higher than a year ago. Note: Other data sources do not support this aggressive level of wage growth. The 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) in July 2016 was 0.8%. Information for the manufacturing production workweek and earnings can be found in the table section of this release under the Hours and Earnings data category. Current all-employee private sector hours and earnings estimates can be volatile due to fluctuating sample responses. Labor Force Data (residential household survey) The July 2016 unemployment rate for Connecticut was estimated at 5.7% (seasonally adjusted), down one-tenth of a percentage point from June 2016 (5.8%). This is the first outright decline in the state s unemployment rate since August 2015 when the jobless rate went from 5.4% to 5.3%. The state s jobless rate is still three-tenths of percentage point higher than a year ago (5.4%). The US unemployment rate was calculated at 4.9% in July, unchanged from June 2016, but is down four-tenths of a percentage point from the July 2015 rate (5.3%). Unemployment: Based on the Local Area Unemployment Statistics model (LAUS - a statistical model applying the CPS the Current Population Survey residential data), the number of Connecticut unemployed residents, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 1,904 (-1.7%) over the month to 108,596 in July Over the year, the number of the state s jobless residents has increased by 7,056 (6.9%). The state s labor force increased marginally (309, less than 0.1%) over the month, but is expanding moderately over the year (15,092, 0.8%). The July 2016 seasonally adjusted average weekly initial unemployment claims for first-time filers in Connecticut decreased by 1,225 claimants (-25.0%) to 3,671 from June 2016 (4,896), and were also down by 227 claims (-5.8%) from the July 2015 level of 3,898. The large claims decline last month seemed to offset the larger education-related increase in June. The nonfarm employment estimate, derived from a survey of businesses, is a measure of jobs in the state; the unemployment rate and labor force estimates are based on a household survey, and measure the work status of people who live in Connecticut. Overall, as the national and state economies recover, volatility in monthly numbers

3 3 can be expected. Job and employment estimates are best understood in the context of their movement over several months rather than observed changes in a single month s value. Next Connecticut Labor Situation release: Monday, September 19, 2016 (August 2016 data) Contact: Communications Office (860) Labor market information is available on the Internet at Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer

4 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Jobs - by Place of Work CONNECTICUT AND THE UNITED STATES - Seasonally Adjusted July June May April July Over Month Over Year 2016 P 2016 R Change Rate Change Rate CONNECTICUT 1,693,000 1,691,300 1,685,500 1,689,500 1,672,800 1, % 20, % Total Private 1,453,700 1,450,700 1,446,700 1,451,700 1,433,600 3, % 20, % Goods Producing Industries Mining % % Construction 58,000 58,600 59,400 58,600 57, % % Manufacturing 159, , , , , % % Durable Goods 123, , , , , % % Nondurable Goods 36,500 36,400 36,800 36,400 35, % 1, % Service Providing Industries Trade, Transportation & Utilities 298, , , , ,700 1, % 1, % Wholesale 63,400 64,100 64,200 63,700 62, % 1, % Retail 182, , , , ,400 1, % -2, % Transp, Warehousing & Utilities 52,600 51,500 51,200 51,200 50,000 1, % 2, % Information 33,500 34,000 33,700 34,600 32, % 1, % Financial Activities 133, , , , , % 3, % Finance & Insurance 112, , , , , % 2, % Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 21,000 21,000 20,700 20,600 20, % 1, % Professional & Business Services 219, , , , ,400 1, % 3, % Prof, Scientific & Tech Services 96,500 97,000 97,400 97,000 95, % % Management of Companies 32,600 32,700 32,700 32,800 32, % % Admn & Support & Waste Mgt Serv 90,300 88,500 87,200 89,300 87,900 1, % 2, % Educational & Health Services 328, , , , , % 2, % Educational Services 64,000 64,500 63,900 64,800 62, % 1, % Health Care & Social Assistance 264, , , , , % 1, % Leisure and Hospitality 154, , , , ,700 1, % 3, % Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 28,900 28,700 27,600 28,000 26, % 2, % Accommodation & Food Services 125, , , , ,000 1, % 1, % Other Services 67,500 67,100 64,900 64,900 64, % 3, % Government** 239, , , , ,200-1, % % UNITED STATES 144,448, ,193, ,901, ,877, ,001, , % 2,447, % LABOR MARKET AREAS (LMA) Labor Market Area employment estimates are made independently of Statewide estimates. July June May April July Over Month Over Year Seasonally Adjusted data 2016 P 2016 R Change Rate Change Rate Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk 415, , , , , % 6, % Hartford 575, , , , ,500 1, % 6, % Haven 284, , , , , % 5, % Norwich- London-Westerly 128, , , , , % 1, % Danbury - Not Seasonally Adjusted 78,800 79,800 79,300 78,600 78,400-1, % % Waterbury - Not Seasonally Adjusted 67,200 68,500 67,900 66,700 65,800-1, % 1, % Not Seasonally Adjusted data (Non-Classified Areas, State estimated not BLS) Enfield 45,600 45,700 46,100 46,100 45, % % Torrington-Northwest 34,700 34,800 34,500 33,600 34, % % Danielson-Northeast 27,100 27,700 27,200 26,500 26, % % * Less than 0.05% ** Includes Native American tribal government employment P = Preliminary R = Revised Starting with March, 2011, our monthly statewide and major LMA nonfarm job estimates have been taken over by the US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the final phase of transition in this program, which began in As a result of changes in the estimation procedures, you are likely to see more variability in month-to-month estimates of job counts. Caution should be used in interpreting any single month s estimate. The data are best interpreted to identify trends and cycles over several months and quarters. If you have any questions about these changes, please us at: Danbury and Waterbury LMA's are now not seasonally adjusted.

5 UNEMPLOYMENT Persons Unemployed - by Place of Residence CONNECTICUT AND THE UNITED STATES - Seasonally Adjusted July 2016 P July 2015 R Change June 2016 R Number Rate Number Rate Number Points Number Rate CONNECTICUT Unemployed 108, , , , Labor Force 1,900,900 1,885,800 15,100 1,900,600 UNITED STATES Unemployed 7,770, ,249, , ,783, Labor Force 159,287, ,115,000 2,172, ,880, U.S. AND CONNECTICUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES - Seasonally Adjusted Percent Unemployed US CT 4.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2014 LABOR MARKET AREAS - Not Seasonally Adjusted July 2016 P July 2015 R Change June 2016 R Number Rate Number Rate Number Points Number Rate Bridgeport-Stamford 26, , , Danbury 5, , , Danielson-Northeast* 2, , , Worcester NECTA 2, , , Hampton Enfield 2, , , Hartford 36, , , Haven 18, , , Norwich- London 8, , , Torrington-Northwest** 2, , , Torrington NECTA 1, , , Litchfield Waterbury 7, , , CONNECTICUT 109, , , , UNITED STATES 8,267, ,805, , ,144, P = Preliminary R = Revised Labor force data included in this publication are developed in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. * Worcester NECTA, CT part and Hampton LMA are combined ** Torrington Micropolitan NECTA and Litchfield LMA are combined

6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Not Seasonally Adjusted LABOR MARKET AREAS North Salisbury Canaan Colebrook Hartland Suffield Somers Stafford Union Norfolk Enfield Granby Woodstock Canaan Thompson Barkhamsted East Enfield Winchester Ellington GranbyWindsor5.8% Putnam Locks East Ashford Windsor Willington Eastford Simsbury Windsor Tolland Pomfret Sharon Canton Cornwall Goshen Torrington Bloomfield Vernon South Danielson-Northeast Killingly Hartford Windsor 5.7% Torrington-Northwest Avon Coventry MansfieldChaplin Hampton Brooklyn Manchester 5.0% West Harwinton Burlington Hartford Bolton Hartford Warren Litchfield East Kent Andover Farmington Hartford Hartford Windham Wethersfield 5.8% Canterbury PlainfieldSterling Morris Glastonbury Columbia Scotland Bristol ington Washington Thomaston Plainville Plymouth Hebron Rocky Bethlehem Britain Hill Marlborough Lebanon Sprague Watertown Berlin Wolcott Southington Cromwell Franklin Lisbon Sherman Griswold Milford Portland Voluntown Woodbury Colchester Roxbury Waterbury Middletown East Bozrah Norwich Meriden Danbury 6.7% Norwich- London- Middlebury Cheshire Hampton Bridgewater Prospect Middlefield Preston Westerly 5.7% 4.7% Naugatuck Salem Fairfield Brookfield Southbury Haddam East Montville Wallingford Durham North Haddam Ledyard Stonington Oxford Beacon Falls Danbury Bethany town Chester Hamden Haven Lyme Waterford Seymour Bethel North 5.7% Killingworth Essex Woodbridge East Groton Haven North Deep Monroe Ansonia Branford Madison River Lyme Stonington Derby Guilford London Redding Shelton Old Ridgefield East Clinton WestbrookSaybrook Bridgeport-StamfordEaston West Lyme Orange Haven Haven Old Branford Trumbull 5.4% Haven Weston Milford July 2016 Wilton Stratford Bridgeport Fairfield Connecticut: 5.6% Westport StamfordCanaan Norwalk U.S.: 5.1% Greenwich Darien *includes two towns in Rhode Island, Hopkinton and Westerly. Not HOURS AND EARNINGS CONNECTICUT Statewide - Not Seasonally Adjusted Average Weekly Earnings Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings July July Change June July July Change June July July Change June 2016 P 2015 over Yr R 2016 P 2015 over Yr R 2016 P 2015 over Yr R Private Industry All Employees $1, $ $51.12 $1, $30.15 $28.80 $1.35 $30.04 Manufacturing* Production Workers $1, $ $ $1, $27.23 $25.22 $2.01 $27.40 * Production worker data have been impacted by the loss of a large, high-paying manufacturer from the monthly sample. P = Preliminary R = Revised Hours and earnings are also developed for the state's major industry sectors and Labor Market Areas. They can be found on our website at:

7 T R E N D S Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Total Unemployment Employment (000s) Rate 2015 Jan 1, Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, Jun 1, Jul 1, Aug 1, Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1, Dec 1, Thousands 1, , , , , , , , ,655.0 Nonfarm Employment SA 3 MMA 2016 Jan 1, Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, Jun 1,691.3 R 5.8 R Jul 1,693.0 P 5.7 P Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Percent Total Unemployment Rate Avg Weekly All Employee Initial Claims Weekly Hours* 2015 Jan 4, Feb 4, Mar 4, Apr 4, May 3, Jun 4, Jul 3, Aug 4, Sep 3, Oct 3, Nov 3, Dec 3, Jan 3, Feb 3, Mar 3, Apr 3, May 4, Jun 4, R Jul 3, P Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Weekly Initial Claims 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 All Employee Weekly Hours * Not seasonally adjusted P = Preliminary R = Revised ** Labor-management dispute

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