Development of the National Water Resources Model for Jutland

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1 Development of the National Water Resources Model for Jutland Britt Christensen, Hans Jørgen Henriksen and Per Nyegaard, GEUS 1. Regional models and the National Water Resources Model The overall purpose with the National Water Resource model (DK-model) is to set-up a national numerical model to simulate the hydrological cycle with special emphasis on the ground water system. It is intended that the model can be used to estimate the size of the ground water resource on both a national and regional level in Denmark. Using the model it will be possible to take into consideration the effect of e.g. changes in climate or land use on the water resource in aquifers, streams and wetland areas. The DK-model consists of a number of regional ground water models. Together these make up a national model. The regional models for Funen and Zealand have been completed, whereas the regional models for Jutland are in preparation. The partitioning into regional models is if possible done using natural hydrological boundaries. 1.1 DK-model Jutland The model development for the DK-model for Jutland is to a great extent based on the experiences from the DK-model for Funen and Zealand. Due to the development of new facilities in the numerical model and due to the special conditions in Jutland; some changes in the model set-up have been made. The most important changes are: A new method for representing the geological model and the computational layers in the model. Irrigation is included in the model as extra precipitation and abstraction from irrigation wells. Stream flows are described using the MIKE 11 system. Figure 1.1: Model area for South Jutland (5871 km 2 ) and the Ribe-Brede-Brøns river catchment (2482 km 2 ). 1

2 The model setup for Jutland is based on the development and testing of concepts for the area of South Jutland. The model concept is initially tested on a smaller area consisting of the catchment area for the streams Ribe, Brede and Brøns. Figure 1.1 illustrates the model area for South Jutland and the Ribe- Brede-Brøns river catchment. The model setup for South Jutland is completed and calibration has begun using the results from the Ribe-Brede-Brøns model. At the same time collecting data and development of the model setup for Southwest Jutland has started. The DK-model for Jutland is thought to consist of 7 regional models (see figure 1.2): A model for North, North-West, West, East, South-West, South-East and South Jutland. Figure 1.2: Partitioning of the DK-model into regional models. 2. Modelling tools The MIKE SHE system has been chosen as the basis for the DK-model. MIKE SHE is a deterministic and physically based fully distributed and integrated hydrological modelling system, which can describe the most important flow processes in the land phase of the hydrological cycle. Daily values for the net precipitation are calculated using a simple root zone module and the data is used as input to the model. Two calculation components are used in MIKE SHE: SZ (saturated zone flow) and OC (overland flow). Stream discharge is modelled using the MIKE 11 system. In the past few years DHI (The Danish Institute of hydraulic) has made a further development of the applied software, and it is now possible to simulate river flows in the DK-model for Jutland using the 2

3 MIKE 11 system coupled to the MIKE SHE system. MIKE 11 is a one-dimensional river model used for simulating flow, water quality and sediment transport in streams, estuaries, rivers and channels. The model is well documented and in combination with MIKE SHE it is possible to achieve a good description of the water exchange between streams and ground water. 3. Discretization In the first regional model, the DK-model for Funen, it was decided that a horizontal discretization in a 1 x 1 km computational grid make up the upper most limit for representing the topographical and geological conditions, the river network and the water abstractions in a satisfactory way so that the purposes with the model work can still be fulfilled. This discretization was also adapted in the models for Seeland and it is also used in the models for Jutland. 4. GIS input After processing in a GIS environment the topographical information, river networks, soil type and land use data are all used as input to the DK-model for South Jutland. The topography is based on KMS s elevation model (50 m grids), while the soil type data are divided into soil types of either sand or clay based on GEUS s digital soil map. Information on land use is based on CORINE-data. The digital watershed database (ZETA in 50 m grids) is used for the location of streams. 5. The root zone module Based on an empirical relation between the actual and potential evapotranspiration as a function of the water content in the root zone, the root zone module is based upon a water balance for the root zone. The module distributes the precipitation between recharge and actual evapotranspiration. Recharge from the root zone is mostly generated in situations where the water content exceeds the field capacity. A field capacity of 70 mm for sand soils and 140 mm for clay soils has been used. 5.1 Net precipitation Daily values for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from the 40x40 km climate grids of interest are used as input to the root zone module. To take systematic measurement errors into consideration, a correction of the precipitation is done on a monthly basis. The precipitation is distributed differently for high and low placed areas and it is assumed that the potential evapotranspiration is larger for forested areas than for agricultural areas. Finally, it is assumed that the evapotranspiration in wetlands always equal the potential evapotranspiration, meaning that a negative net precipitation occurs during dry periods resulting in water being withdrawn from the top layer in the ground water model. For each climate grid, different time series of net precipitation will be generated for different combinations of land use, soil type and elevation. The following six combinations for area types are used: forest, wetlands, open land/sandy soil above 50 m, open land/clayey soil above 50 m, open land/sandy soil below 50 m and open land/clayey soil below 50 m. For each of these combinations of climate grid and area types, a daily net precipitation is calculated for the period Figure 5.1 shows the average yearly net precipitation for the period

4 Net precipitation (mm/year) Figure 5.1: Average net precipitation (mm/year) for the period Irrigation Since large areas of Jutland are used for agricultural purposes on soils with a large water demand, it has been an important issue to be able to include irrigation in the model. This has been done by increasing the precipitation in areas with irrigation, when the water content in the root zone is less than 30% of the field capacity. On a daily basis, an amount of water is added until the water content in the root zone once again equals 30% of the field capacity. Irrigation can only be generated in the root zone module in the summer months (May, June, July and August). The irrigation routine has been adjusted using data from the county of South Jutland, so that the simulated amounts of water for irrigation are in overall agreement with the yearly reported abstractions for irrigation. This is shown in figure 5.2. Figure 5.2: Yearly reported abstractions (m 3 /year) for irrigation in the county of South Jutland for the years 9.00E E E E E E (x-axis) compared with the simulated amounts of water (m 3 /year) for irrigation from the irrigation routine. Irrigation occur for all combinations of open land, thus 4 additional series of net precipitation are defined to include irrigation in the model. Whether a model grid has irrigation or not depends on the size of the irrigated area within each model grid. Figure 5.3 shows the actual irrigated areas in the county of South Jutland on the left and the corresponding areas in the model with irrigation on the right. 4

5 Figure 5.3: Irrigated areas in the county of South Jutland (left) and irrigated grids in the DK-model (right). Some of the irrigation water will not be used in the root zone, but infiltrate to the unsaturated/saturated zone. This is shown in table 5.1, where the average percentage of infiltrating irrigation water for each of the 4 types of open land is shown for the period Sand < 50 m Clay < 50 m Sand > 50 m Clay > 50 m Irrigation (mm/year) Extra net precipitation (mm/year) Consumption (mm/year) % infiltration of irrigation water Table 5.1: Average values for irrigation water for the period for climate grid Distribution of net precipitation to OC and SZ Some of the net precipitation is routed directly to overland flow instead of to the saturated zone. These situations are thought to have an effect on the overland flow. The topography used in the model is more levelled out than the actual topography, meaning that the generation of overland flow is underestimated in the model. Further more, rainwater falling on paved areas in cities will normally be routed to the overland flow system, and finally, it is assumed that the amount of overland flow increases in areas with clay soils. These 3 conditions are taken into consideration using a physically based template to distribute the net precipitation between OC and SZ within each model grid. The template includes the topographical variations, the percentage of urban areas and the percentage of clay soil within each model grid (1x1 km). There is not accounted for the time delay and storage of water infiltrating through the unsaturated zone to the saturated zone. 6. Hydrogeological model In the following, a short description of the geological framework of the southern part of Jutland is given. The description is based on previously published reports (in Danish) e.g. Forslag til Vandindvindingsplan 1987, Sønderjyllands Amtskommune. Also the recently published Kortlægning af Ribe Formationen, Et fællesjysk grundvandssamarbejde, Teknisk Rapport 1999 is 5

6 used. This report describes the extensive geological survey carried out in South and Central Jutland to establish the extension of the so-called Ribe Formation of Miocene age. Finally the book Danmarks geologi fra Kridt til i dag, Geologisk Institut, Århus Universitet, 1995 is used. The description of the geology of Southern Jutland is mainly based on information from water supply and oil exploration bore holes combined with seismic data. In connection with the establishment of the hydrogeological model, only the sedimentary deposits from the Miocene and the Quaternary are considered, as it is deposits from these time periods, which are used in the water supply. In the major part of Southern Jutland, the Miocene sediments are found below the Quaternary deposits, and the sedimentary sequence is dominated by shallow marine to lacustrine and fluvial deposits. The sequence is formed by layers of mica clay, silt and sand together with quartz sand and gravel. The thickness of the deposits vary from a few meters to over 200 meters from the east to the west. Generally the Miocene sediments are more coarse grained to the east (Harrar and Henriksen, 1996). Below the Miocene sediments are thick clay layers of Eocene and Palaeocene age, which is supposed to be a groundwater seal. The Miocene deposits are divided into 6 formations, which reflects the depositional environment. The sediments are formed under marine over lacustrine to limnic conditions. The marine deposits are more homogenous than the limnic deposits, which vary a greatly. The formations are: The Gram Formation Marine deposit of sticky mica clay. Thickness less than 35 meters. The Hodde Formation Marine deposits mainly of mica clay and with layers of quartz sand and gravel. Thickness from 5 to 20 meters. The Odderup Formation Limnic deposits mainly made of fine grained mica sand with layers of mica clay and silt. Very large variations of thickness. The Arnum Formation Marine sediments of mica silt and sand with layers of mica clay. Thick layers rich in fossils are also found. Thickness up to 50 meters. The Ribe Formation Limnic deposits of quarts sand with layers of mica clay, silt and sand. Thickness up to 100 meters. The Vejle Fjord Formation Mainly marine mica clay with layers of mica sand, deposit in a coastal near environment with sequences of barrier isles and lagoon sediments. Up to 30 meters thickness. Due to quaternary erosion the Tertiary deposits are partly missing in the eastern part of South Jutland, and in the western part the Pre-Quaternary surface is cut by deep quaternary valleys. A subsidence of the Tertiary deposits has also taken place, and therefore Pre-Quaternary sediments may be found more than 100 meters below sea level covered with Quaternary deposits. The thickness of the Quaternary deposits varies largely. They are mainly clayey and sandy tills and melt water sand and gravel. Marine Inter-Glacial sandy clay deposits are also present. The main stationary line divides South Jutland into a more sandy western part dominated by melt water deposits, and an eastern more clayey part with mainly clayey tills. The geological database system in MIKE SHE is used to describe the geology. The system divides the geology into soil types, which are then given a code and hydrogeological parameters. The geology is then saved as grid code maps with a description of soil types in each layer. The geology is interpreted in 10 m s thick layers from level 220 to +90 meters above sea level using a grid size of 1000x1000 meters. The interpretation is based on all bore holes found in the bore hole 6

7 database Jupiter at GEUS as well as on the geological framework of the deposits. The sediments have been divided into 5 soil groups and coded (see below). If a cell has more than 50% quarts sand, then it is coded as quartz sand, and so on. Soil code Colour Name 1 red melt water sand Quaternary and Post-Glacial sand and gravel 2 brown clay (till) Glacial, Inter-Glacial and Post-Glacial clay and slit 3 blue quartz sand Miocene, medium to coarse grained sand and gravel 4 light blue mica sand Miocene, fine to medium grained sand 5 violet mica clay/silt Pre- Quaternary clay and silt In figure 6.1 an East-West cross section with the geology for the South Jutland model is shown at Y UTM = m. Figure 6.1: Geological cross section for the South Jutland model at Y UTM = m. Sea Quartz sand Melt water sand Mica sand Till Mica clay The hydrogeological model for Jutland is different from the model used in the eastern part of Denmark, where continuous layers are used and where the grid size is 2x2 km s. The system used for Jutland improves the presentation of the geology horizontally. Figure 6.2 shows the status for the hydrogeological modelling of Denmark. In the coloured areas the work has been completed. At present the interpretation of East Jutland is in progress. Figure 6.2: Status for the hydrogeological modelling for the DK-model. Coloured areas are finished. 7

8 6.1 Hydrogeological parame ters Hydrogeological parameters (horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific yield and specific storage) are specified for each of the 5 soil types. Initially, results from previous investigations and interpretation of data from for example pumping tests and smaller numerical models from the same area are used to specify the parameters. Adjustments of the parameter values are made during the calibration phase. 7. Abstractions All abstractions with permission to abstract more than m 3 /year are included in the model using data from GEUS s Water Resources register supplemented with data from the counties of South Jutland and Ribe. Each abstraction is placed as correct as possible according to information on well co-ordinates and screen level. In case of insufficient well data plane co-ordinates are used instead and abstraction is assumed to take place from calculation layer 3 (see section 9). Fairly good time series for yearly abstractions to waterworks and industry are available for the period in GEUS s Water Resources register. These abstractions are therefore also included in the model as yearly values. Information on abstractions for irrigation purposes is on the other hand very scarce and incomplete. For this reason it has been chosen to estimate the yearly abstractions for irrigation by using a linear relationship between irrigation generated by the root zone model and the utilised percentage of the abstraction permissions. The linear relationship has been established using data for the average utilised percentage of the abstraction permission observed in the county of South Jutland during the last years compared to the amount of irrigation water generated by the root zone module for the same years, see figure 7.1. By doing this, a time series with values for the utilised percentage of the abstraction permission for every year is achieved. Subsequently, it is possible to determine the yearly abstraction for irrigation purposes for each abstraction by using information on the size of the permission. The yearly abstraction amounts are distributed evenly over the summer months May, June, July and August Percentage utilised Irrigation (mm/year) Figure 7.1: Linear relationship between utilised percentage of the abstraction permission observed in the county of South Jutland for the years and irrigation water generated by the root zone module. 8

9 In table 7.1 the distribution of water abstracted in the different calculation layers is shown for the Ribe-Brede-Brøns catchment. The large amounts of water abstracted from calculation layer 3 are partly caused by the fact that abstraction wells without information on screen level are assumed to abstract water from layer 3 as previously mentioned. Computational layer % of abstraction Table 7.1: Distribution of abstracted water amounts on calculation layers. 8. Streams and lakes Flow in streams is controlled by the exchange of water between the saturated zone and river beds as well as contributions from drain and surface run-off. Description of stream flow is done using the MIKE 11 model. The model is coupled to MIKE SHE. All larger streams are included in the MIKE 11 model. Information on cross-sections, elevations and plane co-ordinates (UTM) are used to describe the streams. Standard cross-sections are used in cases where cross-section data are not available. The distance between cross-sections is important with respect to the time discretization. Close laying cross-sections as well as various structures will result in small time steps. Normally a distance of m s between cross-sections is used in the model. Initially, structures are not included in the model. Lakes are integrated in the river system and described using cross-section data. It is possible to simulate flooding of river banks. Figure 8.1 shows a typical MIKE 11 presentation including the water level in a longitudinal profile, a river cross-section and simulated flow in two points. Exchange of data between the two models is done in a number of MIKE11 points and MIKE SHE river links. In MIKE SHE an automatic discretization of the more detailed information from MIKE 11 is performed. The exchange of water is controlled by the leakage between the river and the saturated zone. Leakage parameters are determined and calibrated for each river stretch. The leakage is controlled by the hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer or a leakage coefficient of the river lining. The leakage coefficient can reduce the water exchange in areas with low permeable lining sediments or in areas where a smaller exchange flow is desired. The flow resistance is determined by the Manning roughness coefficient and can be specified for each stretch of river and it may vary. 9

10 [m] Water Level :58 RIBEAA-SHE-M-MARK.RES RIBEAA JELSAA ROEJBAEK [m] [m] JELSAA :19: [m] [m^3/s] Time series of Discharge (RIBEAA-SHE-M-MARK.RES11) Discharge JELSAA JELSAA Figure 8.1: Plots from MIKE 11: Longitudinal river profile, cross-section and simulated flow in two points. 9. Computational layers The vertical discretization of the calculation grids is defined by the division of the model into computational layers. A natural division could be done using the position of the geological formations. This approach has, however, not been applied, because of the large east-west variations in thickness of the geological layers in South Jutland which results in an undesirable large thickness of the computational layers in certain parts of the model area. The model calculates an average value of the hydrogeological parameters for each computational grid, which results in an inaccurate representation of the actual hydrogeological conditions in grids with a large vertical extention of the computational layer. Instead it is chosen to use an approach so that the definition of computational layers is closely related to the geological model. In figure 9.1 a profile is shown in Y UTM = m with the 16 computational layers used in the model for South Jutland as well as the horizontal hydraulic conductivities. The top computational layer extends from the ground surface down to 2 m s below the top water table (in areas where the water level is below the topography) or 2 m s below the surface (in areas where the water level lies above the surface). The bottom of the second computational layer is 10

11 halfway between the first and third calculation layer, where the third layer has a horizontal bottom in 10 mdnn. To preserve as much of the hydrogeological model as possible, all the remaining computational layers have a horizontal bottom. The bottom of the lowest calculation layer is situated at 220 mdnn. (m/s) Sea 1E-3-1E-2 1E-4-1E-3 1E-5-1E-4 1E-6-1E-5 1E-7-1E-6 5E-8-1E-7 5E-9-5E-8 Figure 9.1: A profile (east-west) showing computational layers and horizontal hydraulic conductivities in Y UTM = m. 10. Other conditions 10.1 Drain water flow Both artificial and natural drainage is included in the models drain water flow component. Since there is no detailed description of the drainage system available, the description of drain flow is simplified. In the model, drain flow is described by a drain level and a time constant for routing the water out of an element. In the main parts of the model a drain level of 0.5 m s is used. To prevent the drain level from being under sea level, the drain level is reduced in areas where the surface is close to sea level. Drain water is routed to either streams or model boundaries Boundary conditions An outer boundary condition is specified along the catchment boundary. For the South Jutland model the northern and southern boundary is determined based on the topography and position of streams, so that the boundary is thought to lie in a watershed. A constant gradient of zero corresponding to an impermeable boundary is therefore used along these boundaries. This also results in a more manageable water balance. Towards east and west the boundary lies in the sea and a constant potential head of zero is therefore used. Initially, the same boundary conditions are used in all calculation layers. The applied boundary conditions does not necessarily reflect the actual conditions, but since the boundary normally make up a small part of the model area, errors are mainly introduced close to the boundary. Since Kongeåen is situated close to the northern boundary, it can possibly be affected by boundary condition errors and results from this catchment should therefore be used with care in the calibration of the model. 11

12 In MIKE 11 an upstream no-flow boundary condition is used in the streams where as sea level or observed Q-H curves are uses as down stream boundary conditions. 11. Calibration Calibration of the part of the model covering the Ribe-Brede-Brøns catchment is expected to be completed within a short period of time. As mentioned above the purpose with the model setup covering only the Ribe-Brede-Brøns catchment has been to find an acceptable concept applicable for all the regional models in Jutland. A verification of this model is therefore not done, only a rough calibration has been performed in order to verify the model concept. Calibration and verification of the regional model for South Jutland is done using a differential splitsample test. Calibration is done using data from the period , while the verification is done using data from Comparison of the model results with observed time series of discharge in selected river points as well as hydraulic potential in selected monitoring wells are used to calibrate the model. A calibration can be performed with respect to a number of the parameters used to describe the hydrological cycle. In this case the calibration is carried out with main emphasis on the following parameters: Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities in the geological model Distribution and size of the river leakage coefficients Time constant for drain flow to rivers Storage coefficient In figure 11.1, 11.2 and 11.3 examples of comparison of simulated and observed data from the calibration of the Ribe-Brede-Brøns model are shown. Figure 11.1 shows the simulated hydraulic potential in layer 4 for a specific date compared to point data of observed hydraulic potential in the same layer. The observed hydraulic potentials are taken from the Jupiter database and include observations from Figure 11.1: Hydraulic potential in computational layer 4. 12

13 The model is also calibrated using observed time series of hydraulic potential in selected wells from the water level monitoring network. Figure 11.2 shows a comparison of observed and simulated hydraulic potential in well (DGU no.). The model is seen to be able to describe the time variations quite well, while the simulated level is too high. Figure 11.3 illustrates stream discharge in the point corresponding to stream gauge station in Lobæk, Brede river system. The model simulations of low discharges are seen to agree well with the observed data, indicating that the hydraulic conductivities and the exchange between river and saturated zone in this case are described well in the model. Observed Simulated Figure 11.2: Simulated vs. observed hydraulic potential in well Observed Simulated Figure 11.3: Simulated vs. observed discharge in river gauge station Besides describing hydraulic potential and river discharges the model can be used to e.g. describe ground water recharge to different depths in the model area. Figure 11.4 illustrates the ground water recharge to layer 4 and 9. Layer 9 corresponds to the depth where the top of the Ribe formation is observed. The ground water recharge is seen to be concentrated in a relatively delimited area in the eastern part of the model. Further more the model can be a useful tool in predicting how different changes in e.g. land use, precipitation and abstractions can effect the distribution of the water resource in the area. Finally a rough estimation of residence times in the system can be done. 13

14 (mm/year) Figure 11.4: Ground water recharge to layer 4 (to the left) and 9 (to the right) in mm/year. 12. References Friis, H., Neogene Aflejringer, i Danmarks geologi fra Kridt til i dag, Geologisk Institut, Århus Universitet. Harrar, B. and H.J.Henriksen, Groundwater model for Sneum-Bramming-Holsted Å Aquifer System: Set-up and Calibration. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. Sønderjyllands Amtskommune, Kortlægning af Ribeformationen. Et fællesjysk grundvandssamarbejde, Teknisk Rapport. Sønderjyllands Amtskommune, Forslag til Vandindvindingsplan Sønderjyllands Amtskommune, Teknisk Forvaltning. 14

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