Overview of the Italian Energy Market (Updated to 2013)
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1 Overview of the Italian Energy Market (Updated to 2013) Milan, December 2014
2 Agenda 1. 1 Main features of the Italian energy market Market size Offer and demand; market players Market infrastructure 2. The wholesale market 3. The retail market 4. Market prices and margins DISCLAIMER - This document has been prepared by A2A for convenience purposes only and for the benefit of investors and analysts solely and is based on public information. However this document shall not give rise to any liability of A2A or any of its subsidiaries, directors, officers, employees or consultants as per the truthfulness, accuracy, completeness and updating of such information. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe any shares or other securities and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. 2
3 The European energy market sizes TWh European electricity demand TWh 1000 European gas demand Germany France UK Italy Spain Turkey Sweden Poland Norway Netherlands Finland Belgium Austria Switzerland Czech Rep. Greece Romania Portugal Hungary Denmark Ireland Bulgaria Slovakia Slovenia Lithuania Estonia Latvia Luxembourg Cyprus Malta Germany United Kingdom Italy France Netherlands Spain Belgium Poland Romania Hungary Austria Czech Republic Slovakia Ireland Portugal Greece Finland Denamrk Lithuania Croatia Bulgaria Latvia Luxemburg Sweden Slovenia Estonia Cyprus Malta Italian market is no.4 in the European electricity market ranking, and no.3 in gas market ranking. The Italian electricity demand in 2012 stands at the same level of The Italian gas demand in 2012 is below the level of Source: Eurelectric early statistics 2012; Eurogas statistical report EU27, including Norway and Turkey 3
4 The historical trend of Italian electricity demand 350 CAGR 1.55% CAGR -1.27% TWh % +1.9% +3.2% +1.5% +1.6% +2.1% +0.7% -0.1% -5.7% +3.2% +1.3% -1.9% -3.0% -2.9% Electricity demand in 2013 amounts to 318 TWh. Electricity demand is still downward in 2013, mainly due to the economic crisis. In 2014 is decreasing further. Source: AU website; Terna website, REF 4
5 Final consumption by sector and GDP % % 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% -0.6% % -5% -10% -15% TWh % -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% Agriculture Industry Services Households % change GDP Services consumption grew between 2008 and 2012 (+6 TWh). Drop in industrial sector: -26 TWh in 6 years (-17.5%). From 2008 to 2013 industrial consumption decreased much more than electricity demand (-1.27%) and GDP (-1.9%). Source: GME s 2013 annual report. 5
6 The electricity demand 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Liberalized market - retailers' market share* * REGULATED MARKET AU (Acquirente Unico Single Buyer): state owned body responsible for the electricity supply to the regulated market. AU sources electricity from the wholesale forward market (mainly by auctions) and from the spot power exchange. Volumes managed by AU in 2013: approx. 70 TWh. * Sales to wholesalers and resellers not included. Source: GSE website; AU website 6
7 Gas consumption in Italy Hystorical gas consumption bcm Industrial Household Thermo Other % Thermoelectric consumption % Industrial consumption Gas consumption in 2013 (67 bmc) is below the level of 2003, due to the drop of thermoelectric demand and, secondarily, to the decrease in industrial consumption. Source: Snam rete gas. 7
8 The mix of electricity production 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 7% 9% 12% 15% 16% 14% 14% 12% 17% 15% 20% 18% 18% 16% 14% 18% 17% 12% 15% 28% 22% 11% 10% 18% 9% 14% 9% 13% 14% 14% 14% 13% 15% 8% 15% 16% 13% 16% 49% 50% 55% 54% 50% 51% 40% 43% 48% 43% 38% Natural Gas Coal Oil & other Hydro Renewable 288 TWh National production in 2013 The relative importance of thermoelectric generation (gas, oil and coal) decreased from overall 83% in 2007 to 62% in Huge decrease of CCGT production volumes: in 2013 the national load factor has been about 1,800 hours. Source:; AEEG annual report 2012; Terna preliminary data. 8
9 Major companies contribution to the electricity gross production 40% Year % 30% 25% 20% 15% * ** 10% 5% 0% Enel Eni Edison E.On Erg A2A Iren Gdf Suez Tirreno Power* Edipower Sorgenia Saras Others The national incumbent is still the main player. Many medium-sized players have emerged after liberalization. Consolidation process is now expected due to economic crisis. (*) TirrenoPower: Sorgenia (39%), GdFSuez (50%), Hera (5.5%), Iren (5.5%) Source: AEEG annual report 2012; Preliminary data from Terna 9
10 The generation capacity increases while the electricity consumption is slowing Installed generation capacity [GW] vs. Electricity consumption [TWh] Installed geneartion capacity [GW] Under-capacity Thermo Hydro Other renewable Electricity consumption [right scale] Electricity consumption [TWh] Over-capacity Starting from 2005 huge investments in the thermoelectric sector have been on stream to increase the capacity after a critical period. Additional renewable capacity, subsidized by the tariffs, has been developed from The electricity consumption dropped in late 2008 and the recover is lingering. The balance between generation capacity and consumption load is normally cyclical and should reverse in the next few years. The peak reserve margin in 2013 ranged from 33.5% (winter period) to 45.9% (summer period). Source: Terna 10
11 Italian renewable electricity gross production mix TWh Hydro 48% 110 TWh Solar 20% Wind 14% Geothermic 5% Biomass 13% Geothermic Biomass Wind Solar Hydro Hydroelectric production accounts for nearly half of total renewable sources. Huge increase in solar and wind production, due to the EU Targets and thanks to a generous incentive scheme. Source: GSE; AEEGSI interim data. 11
12 Distributed generation in 2012 Volumes breakdown by source Technology n plants Gross Capacity Volumes # MW TWh Hydro 2,628 3, Non Renwable 31% Solar 31% Wind 841 2,283 4 Solar 478,277 15, Thermo 3,166 8, Total 484,912 30, Biomass, biogas 12% Hydro 19% Wind 7% Distributed Generation (DG) is the total amount of power plants connected to the distribution system. In 2012 the energy gross production of DG amounted to 57 TWh, about 19% of national production, through more than 480,000 plants. 69% of the energy comes from renewable sources, especially from solar power plants. Source: AEEGSI 12
13 Renewable power installations GW Installed capacity by Source * Hydro Wind Solar Geothermic Biomass RENEWABLE INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2012: 47 GW TOTAL CAPACITY IN 2012: 128 GW Huge increase in new renewable installations from 2009 due to high public incentives. About 10 b of incentives in 2012 (collected through the tariffs) were allocated to renewables, whereof more than 6 b for solar energy. New installed green capacity has more than doubled between 2000 and A slower growth rate is expected over the next years due to the reduction of incentives. (*) Provisional data Source: GSE website; Terna 13
14 Electricity interconnection capacities Since 2005 the interconnection capacities have been allocated to the market participants through explicit auctions. SW AU The use of capacities (import-export flows) strongly depends on the price spreads between the adjacent markets. FR 630 SL MNE In 2011 market coupling has been launched on the Italian-Slovenian border. In 2015 it is expected to be established with the rest of northern borders. 60 Net Italian import: break down by countries - [TWh] GR Interconnection capacities [MW] Main imports come from Switzerland and France. Import reductions by Terna to maintain the system security. Flows from Slovenia and Greece hard to optimize due to the local illiquid markets. New Montenegro-Italy and France-Italy interconnections are expected to be commissioned in 2017 and 2019 respectively. Source: AEEG annual report France Switzerland Austria Slovenia Greece 43TWh Import volumes in
15 Gas interconnection capacities Interconnection capacities are allocated to the market participants through explicit auctions and through long-term contracts Netherlands Norway The gas in the pipelines is normally inflowed (except Gorizia) Russia Tarvisio Gries pass New LNG Terminal in Livorno started to operate in September 2013 Gorizia Rovigo Panigaglia LNG LNG Livorno Storage 16 TAP Gas imports breakdown 62bcm Import volumes in % Lecce Mazara del Vallo Gela Algeria 60% 40% 20% Lybia Interconnection capacities [bcm/year] 80% 0% Gries pass Tarvisio Gorizia Gela Mazara del Vallo Panigaglia (LNG) Rovigo (LNG) Other Source: AEEG annual report 2012; SNAM website 15
16 Italian electricity chain Players along the value chain: TRANSMISSION 1 main TSO (Terna) + 11 minors 65,000 km tr. lines Regulated business Liberalized business DISTRIBUTION 138 local distributors GENERATION WHOLESALE/TRADING SALES RETAIL MARKET ~ 12 main producers ~ 40 active traders ~ 20 main sales companies ~ 37 Mil. customers Institutional bodies: MSE Ministry of Economic Development: defines the political and strategic guidelines for the management and security of the national electric system. AEEGSI Regulatory Authority for Electricity Gas and Water: sets the regulated tariffs; promotes and controls the competitiveness and efficiency of the energy sector. Independent of the government. Terna Transmission System Operator: owner of the national transmission grid through a concession and responsible for the security and for the optimal dispatching. Listed company. GME Market operator: organizes the day ahead market and MTE. GSE Responsible for the promotion and coordination of renewable sources. AU Single Buyer: responsible for the electricity supply to the regulated market. 16
17 Terna s energy demand forecast Demand Forecast TWh In the Baseline Scenario, a decrease of the electric intensity of 0.5%/year is assumed, due to the compliance with the energy efficiency goals. Demand foreseen in 2023: TWh (+0.3% average YoY) In the Development Scenario, an increase of the electric intensity of 0.3%/year is assumed. Demand foreseen in 2023: 370 TWh ( +1.1% average YoY) Baseline scenario Development scenario TWh Residential Terziary TWh In the Baseline Scenario, the industry s contribution to consumption growth is negative. Positive the growth of services (+1.5% year) Industry Agricolture In the Development Scenario, an increase of the share of consumption in the service is foreseen at the expense of the industrial sector Baseline Scenario Development Scenario Source: Terna, November
18 Agenda 1. Main features of the Italian energy market 2. 2 The wholesale market Spot market (IPEX, MSD) Forward/futures market 3. The retail market 4. Market prices and margins 18
19 IPEX: Italian Power Exchange MGP day ahead DAY AHEAD MARKET Purchasing and sale of electricity on an hourly basis Players: producers, traders, consumers System Marginal Price (zonal market for the producers) Bilateral contracts are allowed Counterparty: GME MSD MI dispatching service (3 sessions) Intraday (4 sessions) MB balancing INTRADAY MARKET Purchasing and sale of electricity in order to adjust the MGP s program Players: producers, traders, consumers Discretionary System Marginal Price Counterparty: GME DISPATCHING SERVICES MARKETS (ancillary services) DISPATCHING Purchasing and sale of power by TSO for congestion resolution and reserve Players: relevant producers Pay as Bid Counterparty: TERNA BALANCING Purchasing and sale of power by TSO for realtime balance Players: relevant producers Pay as Bid Counterparty: TERNA MGP MI1 MI3 MI2 MSD1 MI4 MSD3 MSD2 MB h.9.15 Bidding RUN h h D-1 h h h h h h h D 19
20 The day ahead market 6 geographical zones North Center-North Center-South South Sicily Sardinia AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND SLOVENIA NORTH FRANCE CENTER-NORTH CORSICA CENTER-SOUTH GREECE SOUTH SARDINIA SICILY MGP day ahead 6 virtual zones France Switzerland Austria Slovenia Corsica Greece MI intraday MSD dispatching services MB balancing Transport capacity limits exist among the market zones and are cleared through the market algorithm (see next slide) Limited production poles ZONAL PRICES PUN Hourly clearing price for each market zone Reference price for producers and importers Unique National Price: average of the zonal prices weighted on the zones volumes Reference price for consumers 20
21 The day ahead market algorithm MGP day ahead MI intraday MSD dispatching services MB balancing The electricity price is calculated through a demand-offer equilibrium algorithm: for each zone NORTH Cumulative DEMAND /MWh CENTER-NORTH Cumulative OFFER CENTER-SOUTH SOUTH SARDINIA SICILY P Q The algorithm runs the first time at national level. If the capacity limits among the zones are not breached, the outcome is an equal price for all the zones. If any capacity limit breach occurs, the market is split into one or more zones. The algorithm is repeated at zone level and the resulting prices are different among the zones. MWh The electricity imported and the electricity produced from renewable sources are bid at zero (price takers). Renewable capacity installed shaves peak prices 21
22 The Ancillary Services Market (MSD) Terna (TSO) procures through the Ancillary Service Market (MSD) the resources necessary to guarantee the balance of the power system and to release the intra-zonal congestions, that characterize Italian electricity market, which is a very complex physical market. The MSD is cleared through a pay as bid algorithm. Terna is the central counterparty which accepts bids/offers from market participants related to different reserve and balancing services. The market is divided into: «ex-ante MSD»: consists of 3 sub-sessions, where Terna trades energy and balancing services in order to release congestions and to create reserve margins (secondary and tertiary reserve); «Balancing Market» (MB): consists of 5 sub-sessions, where Terna trades real-time balancing services to restore secondary/tertiary reserve and to maintain the balance of the grid. Each player admitted to the market must provide bids and offers for each of the following services: Secondary Reserve; MSD ex ante volumes 20 Terziary Reserve; Start-up; Shut-down; 10 Change of plant configuration. 5 After the last update of the dispatching rules in 2011 TWh 0 volumes in MSD drastically dropped, due to the -5 introduction of new market sessions and the creation of a more cost reflective offer structure. Thereafter the balancing needs increased because of the diffusion of intermitting renewable sources. Source: GME Ascending Descending 22
23 The wholesale futures and forward markets Bilateral and brokered market Futures/ Forward market IDEX, EEX MTE Bilateral forward market currently supported by 8 brokers Trading of standard products: baseload, peakload, off-peak Physical and financial transactions under bilateral master agreements (i.e. EFET, ISDA) Credit risk managed by collaterals (PCG, Bank Guarantee) High liquidity available, from day-ahead until 2 years-ahead Centralized power exchange Trading of standard futures products (baseload, peakload) Financial transactions with unique counterparty Credit risk managed by margin calls system (clearing house) Medium liquidity Centralized power exchange managed by the GME Trading of futures products with physical delivery (standard: baseload and peakload) Unique counterparty. Automatic scheduling Credit risk managed by bank guarantee and/or cash deposit Low liquidity 23
24 The futures/forward market segmentation 1.7x Italian market size Wholesale traded volumes TWh Wholesale futures/forward market size is steadily around 500 TWh since One of the most liquid power market in Europe OTC physical forward market is the main wholesale channel. Source: A2A internal analysis 24
25 Expected evolution of the market regulation Capacity payment Until 2017, the temporary regime provides for an equal remuneration (CAP) for all and a supplementary one (S) linked to actual revenues. In 2013 the total remuneration for the mechanism was equal to 155 M. With the resolution 320/2014, AEEG introduced an auction mechanism to remunerate the flexible capacity for the period Capacity market Terna will secure through central auctions the system adequacy and flexibility. The organization of the capacity market is expected at the end of The auctions will be open to participants with new or existing programmable and not subsided capacity; in exchange of a fixed amount of money (which will be the auctioned item), market participants shall ensure capacity plant availability and shall return the difference, if positive, between a reference price (MGP or MSD) and the strike price linked to an open cycle gas turbine overall cost. Imbalances of intermitting renewables Market coupling The imbalances regime has been reviewed in November The Authority defined the new mechanism of imbalance settlement, with different thresholds for different kind of renewables, and a fee within the threshold in order to avoid cost socialization. If producers do not accept this mechanism they will pay the same cost of the non relevant but programmable units. Starting from 2015 Italy should gradually join the European Price Coupling, which simultaneously determines volumes and prices in all relevant zone, using a single algorithm based on the marginal pricing that meets the requirement of efficient allocations of the cross border capacity. Some important differences in the market structure have to be removed: gate closure at 9.15 instead of 12.00, two months settlement instead of two weeks, negative prices. 25
26 Agenda 1. Main features of the Italian energy market 2. The wholesale market 3 The retail market 3. Distribution service Switches to liberalized market Electricity prices for retail customers 4. Market prices and margins 26
27 Distribution service Distribution market shares (volume) >> % 12% 10% % 4 distributors 8% 6% 3,9% 4% 3,3% 3,2% 1,4% 2% 0,9% 0,7% Hera Set 0,6% 0% Enel A2A Acea AEM Torino AGSM Others > Number of distributors The incumbent is still predominant. Besides A2A and Acea, competition is spread across many small players. Most of the distributors are pretty small, with only local distribution network and small size customers. Source: AEEG annual report
28 The captive customers progressively switch to unregulated tariffs Market segmentation by tariff 100% 90% 24% 80% 33% 40% 43% 70% 48% 50% 55% 63% 70% 73% 75% 74% 77% 79% 80% 30% 27% 25% 26% 23% 22% 20% % 50% 40% 76% 30% 20% 67% 60% 57% 52% 50% 45% 10% 37% 0% Regulated 1999: start of liberalization Liberalization for SMEs Liberalized Liberalization for households Market liberalization started in 1999 involving only big industrial customers, then progressively extended to the smaller industrials. From 2007 the market liberalization process has been completed involving the residential customers. In the last years households and SMEs have been the main switchers. Source: AU website 28
29 Who s switching to the liberalized market Others 33% Most of the customers switching to the liberalized market are nonhousehold Others 91% Household 67% Household 9% Most of the customers reluctant to switch to the liberalized market are households Customer base % 20% 79% 100% 100% 97% 90% 78% 90% 78% 49% 40% 80% 91% 60% 100% 80% Few suppliers are prepared to serve households due to high acquisition and commercial costs. 0% Others Household Source: AEEG annual report 2013; A2A internal analysis 29
30 The cost of renewables financed by the domestic bill The V incentive scheme ceased to apply on 6/07/2013, when the cumulative annual cost of incentive of 6.7 billion has been reached. In 2013 more than 305 MW of PV came into operation without incentives (grid parity); while in 2014 an additional 1 MW is expected. The cumulative cost can not exceed 5.8 billion /year. Over the past two years, the weight of the energy component within the regulated tariff has dropped from 60% to 53% and, conversely, the system charges significantly increased (moving from 9% to 19%), mainly due to the increase of the incentives to renewable sources. 25 Regulated market: electricity tariff's breakdown 20 2,4 2,3 1,9 2,5 2,3 2,2 2,3 2,3 10 2,2 1,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,6 5 9,4 9,5 9,5 9,4 10,0 15 c /kwh 2,4 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,5 2,6 2,5 2,6 2,5 2,5 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,4 3,6 3,6 3,7 4,0 4,1 4,1 2,6 2,6 2,6 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,8 3,0 3,0 10,9 10,9 11,0 10,4 10,0 10,2 10,0 9,8 9,4 9, I 2011-II 2011-III 2011-IV 2012-I energy costs 2012-II 2012-III 2012-IV 2013-I network cost 2013-II 2013-III 2013-IV 2014-I system cost (inlc. RES incentives) 2014-II 2014-III taxes Source: GSE AEEG data- (*) Solar Energy Report 2014 of Politecnico di Milano 30
31 Agenda 1. Main features of the Italian energy market 2. The wholesale market 3. The retail market 4 Market prices and margins 4. 31
32 Italian prices are the highest in Europe Baseload prices /MWh Germany 2010 France Italian prices higher than European prices. Heavy decrease of prices from 2008 due to the financial world crisis and to local generation overcapacity. Increase of price from 2011 due to higher oil costs, despite the enduring overcapacity conditions and the significant increase of renewables. Italy Marginal Technology* Import Other 12% RES 2% Coal 6% 2% Oil 6% CCGT variable costs are the main reference price especially during the peak hours Idro 10% CCGT is still the main marginal technology. New renewable sources (besides hydro) are emerging. Nat. Gas 62% * Technology which set the price for a single hour Source: AEEG; A2A internal analysis 32
33 Spot price hourly shape PUN hourly shape /MWh Typical peak hours shifted from morning hours to h.19-21, because of the strong impact of PV production occurring in the central hours, along with steep reduction during the evening hours not matched by load decrease. Therefore CCGTS are able to set System Marginal Price in evening hours with high margins to recover their fixed costs Peak/Base ratio 1,4 1, , ,1 1,0 0, Ratio between peak and baseload hours has decreased over the last 4 years. This is due to overcapacity and low demand scenario, together with remarkable solar generation increase. Source: A2A internal analysis 33
34 The Italian spot gas market PSV (PB-GAS) TTF PBGAS-TTF spread Q Q Q Q Y Q Q Q Q Y Y2013 vs. Y /MWh PB-GAS /MWh The Italian Gas Balancing Market (PB-GAS) is a daily spot gas market where the market participants can offer their storage resources to the balancing operator (Snam Rete Gas) in order to solve the contingent imbalances of the system. In 2013, 41 TWh were traded at an average price of /MWh, aligned with PSV (Italian virtual exchange point), with a correlation of 89%. In 2013, the spread between PBGas and TTF drop from 3.65 to 0.83 /MWh gas. Fonte: dati GME e analisi interna. 34
35 The Italian forward electricity market /MWh /1/12 1/4/12 1/7/12 1/10/12 Baseload 1/1/13 1/4/13 1/7/13 1/10/13 Peakload On the forward electricity market, the Calendar 2014 quotation drops from 75 /MWh level of beginning of 2012 to 69 /MWh at the end of the year, and then to 62 /MWh at the end of This was due to a progressively huge decrease in the electricity spot prices. The 2014 price is now equal to 52.5 /MWh. The decrease in energy consumption, the increase in the renewable installed capacity, the high hydraulicity levels are the main causes of this slump in the electricity prices. Source: internal analysis 35
36 The Italian forward gas market /1/13 1/3/13 1/5/13 PSV 1/7/13 TTF 1/9/13 1/11/13 PSV/TTF spread [ /MWh] PSV, TTF [ /MWh] Spread On the forward market, in 2013 PSV and TTF remained highly correlated. In the first months of 2013 the spread between PSV and TTF fell below 0.5 /MWh due to a particular gas shortage in Northern Europe. It then recovered to a stable level of 1.5 /MWh, that represents the transport cost from TTF hub to PSV hub. Source: internal analysis; GME Annual Report 36
37 ETS at The beginning of the Phase III EUA /t /1/12 1/4/12 1/7/12 1/10/12 1/1/13 1/4/13 1/7/13 1/10/13 1/1/14 1/4/14 1/7/14 The huge excess of credits at European level and the lack of regulation caused an important collapse in the EUA price from 2008 to In April 2013 EUA dropped to the minimum level of 2.73 /ton. The approval of Backloading and the Market Stability Reserve gave some support to the price that reached a relative maximum level 7.2 /t in March
38 Clean Spark Spread Clean Spark spread - Baseload Clean Spark Spread Baseload Clean Spark Spread Peakload Q Q Q Q Y Q Q Q Q /MWh Y Y2013 vs. Y /MWh Clean Spark spread - Peakload /MWh The Clean Spark Spread (CSS) measured using baseload and peakload electricity prices is an indicator of CCGT profitability. The CSS are calculated as the difference between i) the power spot price and ii) the PB-Gas price and the environmental costs related to CCGT production (i.e. CO2 and Green Certificates). The profit has hugely decreased in the last 2-3 years, becoming negative on baseload in Q (- 7.6 /MWh), due to the important presence of renewable sources coupled with low demand level. (*) In the 2012due to free allocations, the CO2 cost is set as revenues.. Source: A2A internal analysis 38
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