Consumer Price Index

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1 Consumer Price Index Metadata National Bureau of Statistics of the Reublic of Moldova (NBS) 1. Contact Information 1.1. Resonsible subdision within NBS Price Statistics Dision 1.2. Contact erson Margareta Şveţ, Head of Section Tel.: ; margareta.svet@statistica.md 2. Metadata Udate 2.1. Last certification of metadata Last udate of metadata Statistical Presentation 3.1. General descrition Consumer Price Index (CPI) is meant to measure the changes in dynamics of the overall level of rices for roducts and serces urchased for consumtion by the households from the country. CPI is a monthly indicator, calculated only for the elements from oulation direct consumtion, excluding the following: consumtion of goods and serces from household s own roduction, exenses for investments and accumulations, interest rates for credits, insurance rates, fines, taxes, etc., as well as the exenses related to labor remuneration for households (agricultural) roduction. CPI measures the general changing trend of the consumer rices over the time. Methodology for CPI calculation comlies with the recommendations of the international organizations, esecially those set forth in the Manual on Consumer Price Index, develoed by the International Labor Organization (ILO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Cooeration and Develoment (OECD), World Bank (WB). The CPI is develoed by the NBS based on the samling surveys on: i) variation of consumer rices for the main goods and serces (develoed monthly) and ii) households budgets survey, which rodes necessary data for calculation of weights of oulation exenditures by grous of goods and serces, sulemented with national accounts data. CPI calculation is carried out based on the households budgets structure and rices registered on monthly basis for 12 reresentative goods and serces in 9 outlets located in 8 cities of the country. Starting with 28, the develoment and dissemination of the CPI is erformed in line with the COICOP classification of the ECC/EUROSTAT/OECD, structured by 12 detailed disions broken down in 39 grous and 93 classes of goods and serces. At the same time, the traditional resentation and use of the data groued by food roducts, non-food roducts, and serces is used. The statistical data on CPI characterize the general evolution of the rices for urchased goods and of the tariffs for the serces used by oulation, offering the users information about the inflation rocesses in the country, which are necessary for develoing, monitoring and assessing the imlementation of

2 economic, monetary, and social olicies Concets and definitions Definitions Consumer Price Index is an estimative indicator, which characterizes the general trends of the rices for urchased goods and the tariffs for serces used by the oulation, in order to satisfy their needs over a certain eriod of time (current eriod) in comarison to a fixed eriod (base eriod). Monthly inflation rate reresents the increase in consumer rices in one month as against the reous month. Monthly average inflation rate exresses the average of monthly rice increases. It is calculated as a geometrical mean of the monthly consumer rice indices with a chain base from which the comarison basis equal to 1 is subtracted. Yearly average inflation rate reresents the average increase in consumer rices in one year as against the reous year. This rate is calculated as a ratio, exressed in ercentages, between the average rice index of one year and that of the reous year, from which 1 is subtracted. At their turn, the average rice indices of these two years are determined as simle arithmetic means of the monthly indices from each year, calculated as against the same base. Yearly inflation rate reresents the increase in consumer rices in one month of the current year, as against the same month of the reous year. It is calculated as a ratio, exressed in ercentages, between the rice index of one month of the current year and the rice index of the corresonding month of the reous year, calculated as against the same basis, from which 1 is subtracted. Inflation rate at the end of the year reresents the consumer rice increase in December of one year as against the same month of the reous year. The inflation rate is calculated based on the roduct of the monthly indices with a chain base in relation to 1. This roduct is exressed in ercentage, and 1 is subtracted from it Unit of measurement Data on rice variation are resented in ercentage (%) Comutation formula CPI is calculated as a Laseyres tye index with a fixed base General formula for calculating the index: L l q I l q L l =aggregated consumer rice index in the current month (1) of the current year as against the reference eriod; I l =indices of the current month as against the average of the base eriod by aggregation stages; q q reous year). = weights related to the aggregation stages (relative imortance of exenses er household in the Simle rice indices. Calculation of rice indices by variety of roduct serce:

3 i l *1 l = variety rice registered in the current month (1); = average of the base eriod for variety rices from the base eriod. Formula of calculation: I =1*(MG 4 anulu,lunaw,gruat)/(mg 4 anulu,lunaw,gruat); MG 4 = geometrical mean of rices in the country for every grou of roducts in the current month. Aggregated indices at the exenses osition level: I Pi l / 12 I Si l /12 W W Si Si S W i = share (relative imortance) of the assortment S i in total of consumtion exenses in 27 S W i = sum of assortment shares in the exenses osition for which rices were registered during the current month Used classifications COICOP classification is used (Classification of Indidual Consumtion by Purose) agreed by EEC/EUROSTAT/OECD Scoe Sector coverage The statistical survey on consumer rice evolution covers the retail rices on the internal market collected within the survey centers for food and non-food roducts and serces roded to oulation Statistical oulation The statistical survey on consumer rice evolution covers the retail trade units for food and non-food roducts and those roding serces for oulation for their own consumtion. The Household Budget Survey covers the households of the Reublic of Moldova resident oulation (excet for those who live in such institutions as risons, asylums for elderly eole, and students hostels) Geograhical coverage Information is develoed and disseminated without covering the data of the enterrises and organizations from the left side of the River Nistru and Bender municiality Time coverage Time series are available starting with Disaggregation level Resulting data are also disaggregated by the following major grous: Food roducts Non-food roducts Serces Beginning with January 215 CPI is disaggregated by 12 COICOP grous Dissemination eriodicity Monthly

4 3.7. Timeliness The 12 th day after the reference month Resion The data are resed beginning with January according to the changes to the weights of households exenditures for the year t-2 adjusted to the structure of exenditure from National Accounts. Beginning with 216 CPI exenditure weights will be estimated using a geometric mean of the households exenditures and national accounts data at the four-digit COICOP level Period of reference The reous month, December of the reous year, the resective month of the reous year, the corresonding eriod of the reous year. 4. Data Collection and Processing 4.1. Data source Statistical surveys Collection of data regarding the changes of retail rices for reresentative goods and serces is erformed by secialized statistical ersonnel (22 registering ersons), in line with the grous of goods and serces. Data are collected in 8 survey centers in the Reublic of Moldova. Registration eriod: data are collected on monthly basis Administrative sources Not used Estimations Fictive rices are alied for seasonal goods and for the goods and serces which have temorarily disaeared from the market Characteristics of the statistical survey Objective and background The main objective: to follow the rices change trend over the time, using concrete methods for collecting and registering rices, for the exact calculation of the consumer rice index. In the Reublic of Moldova, the CPI is develoed and calculated just as in the majority of other countries. Since 24, the CPI in Moldova has been resed deely by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to the bilateral collaboration rogram NBS Norway Statistical Office (consultative and financial suort), in 27, a new comlex of rograms for entering, transmitting, and rocessing the rimary information on rices for calculating the CPI was develoed. With the World Bank financial suort in 212 PC Archos Tablets were urchased. In 213, a new software for recording and sending rimary data was develoed. According to IMF recommendations, beginning with the January 216, CPI will be calculated on regional level and aggregated to the national level with regional exenditure weights. CPI will only be disseminated at national level Statistical unit The observation unit is the consumtion roduct (serce) included in the survey Circle of units covered in the survey The statistical survey on consumer rices includes the following samles: Number of localities covered in the survey set by obserng the reresentativeness restrictions according to the number of inhabitants and volume of sales of goods and serces rendered. It comrises 8 localities from urban area: Chisinau municiality, Balti municiality, Cahul, Comrat, Edineţ, Orhei, Soroca, and Ungheni towns. These reresent not only the localities in which about 6% of the country oulation live, but also these are the localities in which a large share of rocurement of goods and serces is erformed, from value oint of ew.

5 Number of observation units includes shos and units rendering serces to the oulation from the survey centers. Selection is based on the necessity of ensuring reresentativeness from the volume of sales of goods and serces rendered standoint, by each grou, so as to cover the whole nomenclature of reresentative roducts and serces. The samle covers about 9 units, of which almost 85% are in rivate ownershi. Samle of goods and serces covers the assortments hang significant weight in oulation consumtion. The used nomenclature is structured on three levels of aggregation: grous, ositions, and assortments: the grou of food roducts covers 96 ositions with 393 assortments the grou of non-food roducts covers 159 ositions and 666 assortments the grous of serces covers 57 ositions with 191 assortments. The assortments are indidualized in the field through varieties of goods and serces. The sources of weights for the oulation exenditures for the grous included in the survey are Household Budget Survey (HBS) and National Accounts. HBS registers every month the detail exenses of 5 households from the Reublic of Moldova. HBS covers only the households, such institutions as enitentiaries, asylums for elderly eole, and students hostels are not included in the weights, which are calculated from the HBS. The households in which foreigners with temorary resident ermits on the territory of the Reublic of Moldova live also are excluded. More than 6 households articiate during the year in the samling survey, reresenting 1% of country oulation Survey eriodicity Monthly Data collection Tye of survey: samling. Period of registration: rices are registered during the whole month. The agenda of daily registration has two arts for all the food roducts (data are resented twice er month), while for the non-food roducts and serces rices are registered during the whole month and are sent to the central office at the end of the month. Method of registration: the registration is erformed by 22 interewers who ersonally sit the trade units or the serce roders, sually studying the roducts-serce (quality, size, etc.,) and the assortments are indidualized in the field through varieties of goods and serces. Survey toolkit: the rice is fixed using PC Archos Tablets. The rimary registered information is sent to NBS on electronic suort for analysis and subsequent comutation Data rocessing and comilation Data validation Data are verified and analyzed from quality oint of ew, esecially the internal coherence and coherence with other data Comilation/extraolation of data Not alicable Adjustments Alication of seasonal adjustments Quality assurance The quality of statistical data is assured by obserng the fundamental rinciles of official statistics aroved by the UN Economic Commission for Euroe in 1992 (and Statistical Commission/UN in 1994), as well as those set forth in the Reublic of Moldova Law on Official Statistics. In its actity of roducing statistical information, NBS ays huge imortance to ensuring high quality of

6 data. In this resect, a number of measures for quality assurance are carried out at every stage of the statistical rocess: organization of statistical surveys, collection, rocessing, and develoment of statistical information. Imortant efforts are undertaken to ensure the lenitude and quality of data resentation by the resondents included in the statistical surveys. Errors, inconsistencies, and susicious data are brought to light so as to be verified and corrected. The rimary data are verified and analyzed from internal coherence oint of ew (within the questionnaire), temoral coherence (with data from reous eriods), with data of other similar units, as well as with data available from other statistical surveys and administrative data sources. The missing or inconsistent data are imuted, if needed. To ensure the quality of the rimary data, meetings (seminars) are organized with resondents for exlaining the definitions, the correct way to fill in the questionnaires, esecially when they are modified or imlemented, and the way to use a PC Archos Tablet Data accuracy Non-resonse rate Not alicable Samling errors Not alicable 5. Comarability and Coherence 5.1. International comarability CPI in the Reublic of Moldova comlies with the international standards, esecially with the Manual on Consumer Price Index ublished by ILO (23) Comarability over the time Comarability over the time is ensured 5.3. Coherence with other statistics Coherence with data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS): The Household Budget Survey is the source of weights for the exenses made by the oulation for grous of roducts. The samle survey is robabilistic, reresentative at country level, areas of residence and statistical regions: North, Centre, South and mun. Chisinau. Monthly, for HBS a samle of 5 households is used, of which 44,3% from urban area and 55,7% from rural. During one year about 6 households articiate in the samling survey. This samle is used to make an estimation of the total exenses of the households from the Reublic of Moldova for about 3 grous of roducts serces during the entire year. Hence, starting with January 214, for the CPI calculation, there are used weights resulting from the structure of the average exenses made by households in year t-2 adjusted to the structure of exenditure from National Accounts. These estimations are used to calculate annually the relative shares of exenses for every grou of roducts, thus offering the weights for the grous of roducts and serces from the CPI structure. HBS covers only oulation households from the Reublic of Moldova; such institutions as enitentiaries, asylums for elderly eole, and students hostels are not included in the weights which are calculated based on HBS. The households in which foreigners with temorary resident ermits on the territory of the Reublic of Moldova live also are excluded. 6. Institutional Mandate (normative-legal basis) The NBS actity is based on resecting the Reublic of Moldova Constitution, the Law on Official Statistics No. 412 dated , other legislative and normative acts, NBS management decisions and orders.

7 The Law on Official Statistics regulates the organization and oeration of the unique system of official statistics, establishing the general rinciles for collecting, rocessing, centralizing, diminishing, and stocking statistical information (art.1). Art. 5 of the Law rodes that the roduction of statistical information is based on resecting the following rinciles: imartiality, statistical deontology, relevance, transarency, confidentiality, costefficiency, coordination at the national level, and collaboration at the international level. Being the central statistical body, the National Bureau of Statistics is an administrative authority created under the Government for leading and coordinating the actity in the statistics area. In line with the Government Decision No.134 dated on aroval of the NBS Regulation and the Nominal Comosition of the NBS Collegium, the National Bureau of Statistics: develos alone or jointly with other central administrative authorities and aroves the methodologies for statistical surveys, as well as the methodologies for calculating statistical indicators, in line with the international standards, esecially the EU standards, and with the advanced ractice of other countries, and taking into account the eculiarities of the socialeconomic conditions of the Reublic of Moldova; organizes, in line with the Program of Statistical Work, aroved annually by the Government, statistics surveys regarding the economic, social, and demograhic situation and develoment of the country, carrying out collection, rocessing, centralization, stocking, and dissemination of statistical data; The legislative and normative acts ruling the actity of the NBS are available on its official age under About NBS (htt:// ) 7. Confidentiality 7.1. Princiles According to art. 9(2) of the Law on Official Statistics No. 412 dated , the official statistical bodies shall rotect the obtained indidual data. Chater V of the above-mentioned law stiulates that the information collected, rocessed, and stored for the roduction of statistical information is confidential if it allows direct or indirect identification of either hysical or legal ersons and reveals indidual data. The following information is not confidential: a) information that may be obtained from sources accessible to the ublic, according to the legislation; b) indidual information about the address, telehone, name, tye of actity, staff number of the legal and hysical ersons that carry out entrereneurial actities; c) information about state owned enterrises, submitted at the request of the relevant central and local ublic authorities; d) information about the central and local ublic authorities, ublic health facilities, other ublic institutions, generalized at the unit level. According to the Law on Official Statistics, art. 24, access to confidential information is granted to eole who, according to their job duties, articiate in the roduction of statistical information, to the extent to which the confidential information is needed for the roduction of the aforementioned information. The same article stiulates that the access to confidential information that does not lead to direct identification may be granted through the decision of the general director of the central statistical body for research rojects, strategies, and rograms of national imortance, roded that there is not any obous risk of breaking the indidual data rotection regime and interfering in eole s rivate life. Art. 25 of the Law stiulates that the statistical information shall not be sread to users if it contains confidential information. In this case, the generalized information shall contain data about at least 3 units, and the share of one unit shall be at most 85% of the generalized information Practical assurance of confidentiality rules To ensure the rotection of confidential statistical data in comliance with the Law on Official Statistics No. 412 dated , the National Bureau of Statistics undertakes all the regulatory, administrative,

8 technical, and organizational measures to rotect the confidential statistical information and revent its disclosure. In comliance with the above-mentioned law, the staff of official statistical bodies, reewers, interewers, and other eole that, according to their job duties, have direct access to indidual data, must kee the data confidentiality, not to reveal it in any form, including after leang their ositions a fact that is roded in the agreement signed by every emloyee of the NBS. Before being disseminated, the statistical data are verified if they meet the rotection requirements set for confidential data. If the statistical data contain confidential information (see. 7.1), they are not disseminated, but aggregated at the minimum available level which ensures the rotection of data confidentiality. 8. Access to Information and Dissemination Format 8.1. Access to information Release calendar Quarterly, the timeframe for issuing the oerative information and information memos develoed by NBS is drafted Access to the release calendar The calendar for issuing the oerative information, information memos and ublications is laced on the NBS official age Access to statistical data According to the Law on Official Statistics No. 412 dated , art. 9: the official statistical bodies must: a) sread the statistical information to users according to the volume, mode and deadlines established in the rogram of statistical works; b) rode all users with access to non-confidential statistical information on equal terms regarding the sreading volumes and deadlines; The rogram of statistical work may be accessed on the web age under About NBS / legislative and normative acts (htt:// ) The NBS web age reresents the most imortant information source for ensuring users access to different statistical information and transarency about the NBS actity. All the oerative information, informative notes, time series, as well as the statistical ublications develoed by NBS are laced on its official web age Dissemination format Oerative information / Analytical notes The oerative information and analytical notes are ublished on the official age of NBS: htt:// under Press Releases, according to the Calendar for Press Releases issuance Publications Secialized statistical comilation on hardcoies, on the web age, and CD-ROM: Statistical Yearbook of the Reublic of Moldova Territorial statistics Statistical ocket-book Moldova in figures Prices in the Reublic of Moldova Access to ublications: - in electronic format, on NBS official age under Products and serces / Publications htt:// ) - in hardcoy format in NBS library (more details at the address htt:// ) - or may be rocured at the NBS office (more details at the address under

9 Publications htt:// ) Databases/time series The official age of NBS: htt:// under Statistical Data / Prices / Consumer Price Index htt:// and in the Statistical databank, Prices / Consumer Prices Index htt://statbank.statistica.md/xweb/database/en/databasetree.as Questionnaires/data sent uon request from international organizations Questionnaires with data are sent to Eurostat, IMF Requests for additional data NBS makes available for users additional statistical information beyond the data resented in the statistical ublications, informative notes, oerative information, as well as the data laced on the official web age in the limits of available information, in line with the Law on Official Statistics. Request can be sent ersonally, by ost, by or a online web form heading Products and serces / Statistical data request htt:// 9. Useful References (links) 9.1. Accessibility of documentation on methodology The methodology is available on the official age under Metadata (htt:// ) Accessibility of documentation on Evaluation Reorts The NBS assessment reorts are available on the official age under About NBS / Assessments and Oinions on NBS / Assessment Reorts (htt:// ) Accessibility of information on user surveys User surveys are available on the official age under About NBS / Assessments and Oinions on NBS / User Surveys (htt:// ) Other useful references IMF Secial Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) htt:// EUROSTAT database UNData database UN Economic Commission for Euroe database htt://ec.euroa.eu/eurostat/data/database htt://data.un.org/browse.asx htt://w3.unece.org/xweb/dialog/

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