CSEW: Re-weighting, re-classification and 2015/16 survey developments

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1 CSEW: Re-weighting, re-classification and 2015/16 survey developments Crime Surveys User Conference 2014 Richard Cheeseman and Joe Traynor ONS Crime Statistics

2 Overview Offence re-classification Re-weighting Publication 2015/16 survey developments

3 Overview First British Crime Survey Survey became continuous Survey extended to cover children aged BCS conducted every two years (except 1986 and 1990) Sample increased to 46,000 Changed name to Crime Survey for England and Wales / /5 2009/ /13 New list of offences (re-classifying) Census-based updates (re-weighting)

4 Offence re-classification PREVIOUS NEW PERSONAL VIOLENCE (exc. robbery) Violence (inc. robbery) Theft from the person ROBBERY Other theft of personal property THEFT OFFENCES HOUSEHOLD Theft from the person Burglary Other theft of personal property Vehicle related theft Domestic burglary (dwelling) Bicycle theft Domestic burglary (non dwelling) Other household theft * Other household theft Vandalism Vehicle related theft Bicycle theft * inc. Domestic burglary (non dwelling) CRIMINAL DAMAGE

5 Offence re-classification Effect on Violence 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, / / / / / / / / / / / /13 Number of offences (000s) Adults aged 16 and over Violence old classification Violence new classification

6 Offence re-classification Effect on Other household theft Number of offences (000s) 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 Households Other household theft old classification Other household theft new classification 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, / / / / / / / / / / / /13

7 Re-weighting Why do it? Previously using non-revised mid-year population estimates / 2010-based population projections. ONS published updated mid-year population estimates for and population projections based on 2011 Census mid-year (England and Wales): 55,240,475 (non-census update) vs. 55,692,423 (Census update). The incident numbers time-series were the most affected; incident rates and prevalence (risk) rates of being a victim largely unaffected.

8 Re-weighting Methodology change to population bases: Previous bases usage: Total 16+ E&W population (Labour Force Survey); Private household population (Communities + Local Government); Mid-year estimates (i.e. end of June). Current bases usage: Private household only 16+ population; Private household population; Rolling period-end estimates (i.e. end of March / June / September / December).

9 Re-weighting Effect on population multipliers Individual population Households CSEW year Old New % change Old New % change Adults aged /02 41,864,800 40,899, ,735,000 21,685, /03 42,132,200 41,183, ,914,400 21,861, /04 42,407,100 41,463, ,065,900 22,030, /05 42,730,500 41,770, ,216,400 22,201, /06 43,142,000 42,170, ,427,100 22,369, /07 43,494,700 42,560, ,613,800 22,539, /08 43,871,900 42,971, ,809,900 22,710, /09 44,235,400 43,391, ,026,900 22,881, /10 44,554,500 43,752, ,224,600 23,051, /11 44,926,200 44,131, ,470,000 23,220, /12 45,278,500 44,527, ,724,900 23,394, /13 45,641,100 44,900, ,978,400 23,615, Individual population Children aged 10 to 15 CSEW year Old New % change 2009/10 3,862,900 3,969, /11 3,809,900 3,936, /12 3,753,900 3,898, /13 3,703,000 3,830,

10 Re-weighting Effect on CSEW data (2012/13 adults aged 16+) OFFENCE ESTIMATES (000s) DIFFERENCES PREVIOUS NEW NUMBER % VIOLENCE 1,708 1, ROBBERY THEFT OFFENCES 4,962 4, Theft from the person Other theft of personal property Domestic burglary (dwelling) Domestic burglary (non dwelling) Other household theft 1,036 1, Vehicle related theft 1,032 1, Bicycle theft CRIMINAL DAMAGE 1,766 1, TOTAL CSEW CRIME 8,643 8,

11 Re-weighting Effect on CSEW data (2012/13 children aged 10-15) OFFENCE ESTIMATES (000s) DIFFERENCES PREVIOUS NEW NUMBER % Violence Personal theft Criminal damage TOTAL CSEW CRIME

12 Publication

13 Publication 1 st release: Crime Statistics, year ending March 2014 (July 2014) The methodology paper outlining the updates / amendments was also published alongside this release. Revised (historical) CSEW datasets will be published on the UK Data Service website in due course. 2013/14 CSEW datasets have been deposited with the UK Data Service these contain the new offence classification variables and dataset weights are based on the 2011 Census-based population estimates / projections.

14 2015/16 - Survey developments Retender of the Crime Survey Planned questionnaire changes 2015/16 Fraud and cybercrime New child sexual exploitation (CSE) module

15 Retender Retender of the Crime Survey fieldwork and research 2015/ /18 Open tender process initiated May 2014 Three bids including the incumbent TNSBMRB Tender awarded to TNSBMRB No major change to the survey such as any change to sample size or questionnaire length

16 Proposed questionnaire changes 2015/16 Fraud and cybercrime Method for counting crime on the survey has remained stable since survey began in 1982 Changing world new types of crime and modes of operation Known gaps in the survey s count includes: Fraud (online fraud) Cyber crime

17 Survey developments

18 Proposed questionnaire changes 2015/16 Fraud & cybercrime Cautious approach mindful of consistency of time series Employed NatCen (May 2014) to conduct initial research Desk review Question development & cognitive testing Findings were positive but concluded further testing of questions required

19 Proposed questionnaire changes 2015/16 Fraud & cybercrime Further cognitive testing Feb/March Pilot study March Field trial Around 2000 interviews April-June Test coding procedures Some form of phased introduction in Autumn 2015

20 Proposed questionnaire changes 2015/16 2 nd change Introduction of a new module on child sexual exploitation (CSE)

21 Proposed questionnaire changes 2015/16 Child sexual exploitation (CSE) Incidence of CSE never covered by survey Home Office & DfE supportive of the idea Plan ask adults of childhood experience of CSE self completion module Plan produce victim rates Possible broad time series analysis Developing questions covering psychological, physical and sexual abuse

22 Questionnaire changes 2015/16 What to lose Length of the current questionnaire is at its maximum One question in one question out policy Fraud and cyber crime replaces current modules on financial loss and fraud and mass marketing fraud CSE proposal to move to a three module rotation in the self completion module Partner Abuse (14/15) CSE module NOT serious sexual assault (15/16) Serious sexual assault (16/17) Partner Abuse (17/18)

23 Questions (

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