Maurizio Maugeri Università degli Studi di Milano Dip. Fisica

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Alfred Gibbs
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1 Natural risk management in a changing climate: Experiences in Adaption Strategies from some European Projects Milan December 14th 2011 Adaption to climate change: knowledge for action Maurizio Maugeri maurizio.maugeri@unimi.it Università degli Studi di Milano Dip. Fisica

2011 Adaption to climate change: knowledge for action Maurizio

2 Climate change in 5 slides An interesting suggestion from climalteranti blog Slides for a dinner with F. De Bortoli Director of the Corriere della Sera - winner of the 2010 Prize A Qualcuno Piace Caldo

De Bortoli Director of the Corriere della Sera - winner of

5 .Time scales.. and the. Climate System

6 Observational and Projected Temperature Anomalie Records Soucre: Meteo Swiss Region: CH - South

7 Global warming The global T record

8 Global warming The Italian T record Source: ISAC/CNR -

9 Global warming the Switzerland T record Source: Meteo Swiss

10 Climate and Natural Risk management What are the most relevant meteorological information? Know the statistical distribution of the data (pdf) Understand the effect of Climate Change Move from station data to high resolution grids (1 x 1 km)

Know the statistical distribution of the data (pdf)

11 Example 1 - Extreme Value Distribution (GEV o GPD)

12 Example 2 Skewed Normal for daily T anomalies An example from the recent scientific literature The daily temperature anomalies of Italy

13 Example 2 Skewed Normal for daily T anomalies Cold and warm extremes and Climate Change The effect of a 1 C Temperature increase on cold and warm days T< P10 T > P90 With P10 and P90 defined over a reference peridod (e.g ) Fonte: Simolo et al., 2010: Understanding climate change-induced variations in daily temperature distributions over Italy. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D22110

defined over a reference peridod (e.g. 1961-90) Fonte: Simolo et al.

14 Example 2 Skewed Normal for daily T anomalies

15 mm F(x) > Γ = ) ( ) ( 1 x x e x x f x α β α α β Γ = β α α x dt e t x F t 0 1 ) ( 1 ) ( Percentiles Soft extremes More useful to study climate change impact on extremes than GEV/GPD See CLIVAR indexes Some papers for Italy by Brunetti et al. Last one 2010 for Trentino area Example 3 Percentiles of daily precipitation distributions

16 High Spatial Resolution An example: Lightning statistics for Lombardia - number of cloud-ground events per km 2 per year. Source: Sistema Italiano Rilevamento Fulmini (SIRF) - Centro Elettrotecnico Sperimentale Italiano

17 Available Information and Risk Managemen: the state of the art There is at present time a very large gap between the information that is available and the one that we would like to have to better manage Meteo Risk, both in present and in future climate. The scientific community is addressing large efforts to face the problem. An example from the 2010 EMS/ECAC Conference in Zurich The underpinning theme of the ECAC is the adaptation to climate change and the information services that need to be provided to the users and stakeholders on a local scale to enable them to act on the challenges Also the EU calls for Research/Cooperative Projects highlight the strong need for a quick development of climate services

An example from the 2010 EMS/ECAC Conference in Zurich The underpinning theme of the ECAC is the adaptation to climate change and the information services that need to be

18 One Example from FP7 ECLISE Project ECLISE ( ) is a collaborative FP7 research project under the Environment Programme of the European Commission. The central objective of ECLISE is to take the first step towards the realisation of a European Climate Service. ECLISE is a European effort in which researchers, in close cooperation with users, develop and demonstrate local climate services to support climate adaption policies. ECLISE provides climate services for several climate-vulnerable regions in Europe, organized at a sectorial level: cities, water resources, coastal defence and energy production. ECLISE will define, in conceptual terms, how a pan-european Climate Service could be developed in the future, based on experiences from local services and the involvement of a broader set of European decision makers and stakeholders

ECLISE is a European effort in which researchers, in close cooperation with users, develop and demonstrate local climate services to support climate adaption policies.

19 One Example from FP7 ECLISE Project Task 4.4 In cooperation with SIAS

20 In progress at ISAC/CNR - UniMi H-res Monthly Climatologies (T, R, Rad).The contribution of the STRADA Project... The Cooperation with Regione Lombardia, ERSAF and ARPA

21 In progress at ISAC/CNR Virtual T and R records for any point of Italy PAST PRESENT - FUTURE Virtual vs real Rovigo Precipitation record - a: winter, b: summer, Phys. Chem. Earth (2010), doi: /j.pce pce

22 Conclusions Large gap between the information that is available and the one that we would like to have to better manage Meteo Risk, both in present and in future climate; Many activities in progress to bridge this gap; Very important contribution from EU research and transnational cooperative projects; A lot of work for the next years Strong cooperation needed between scientific community, Met Services, Environmental Agencies, Local Administrations, etc Very interesting contribution from the STRADA Project.

CENTRO DI ECCELLENZA JEAN MONNET DELL UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO

CENTRO DI ECCELLENZA JEAN MONNET DELL UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO The people 3 Full Professors 4 Associate Professors 2 Adjunct Professors 2 Post-doc researchers 8 Phd Students The areas of investigation