# Six Sigma. Breakthrough Strategy or Your Worse Nightmare? Jeffrey T. Gotro, Ph.D. Director of Research & Development Ablestik Laboratories

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1 Six Sigma Breakthrough Strategy or Your Worse Nightmare? Jeffrey T. Gotro, Ph.D. Director of Research & Development Ablestik Laboratories

2 Agenda What is Six Sigma? What are the challenges? What are the rewards? Summary and Questions 2

3 Six Sigma has many meanings A Symbol A Measure σ A Benchmark or Goal A Method 3

4 Six Sigma: A Symbol σ is a Statistical Symbol for Standard Deviation Standard Deviation is a Measure of Variability 4

5 Six Sigma: A Measure The Sigma Level of a process can be used to express its capability How well it performs with respect to customer requirements. Defects per million opportunities 5

6 Doing the math 6 Sigma = 3.4 defects per million 5 Sigma = 230 defects per million 4 Sigma = 6,210 defects per million 3 Sigma = 66,800 defects per million 2 Sigma = 308,000 defects per million 1 Sigma = 690,000 defects per million 6

7 Some Examples to Illustrate Typical Defect Rates Defects per Million Opportunities 100K 10K 1K (66,800 ppm) Average Company Purchased Material Lot Reject Rate IRS - Tax Advice (phone-in) (6,210 ppm) Restaurant Bills Doctor Prescription Writing Payroll Processing Order Write-up Journal Vouchers Wire Transfers Air Line Baggage Handling (230 ppm) Best in Class (3.4 ppm) Domestic Airline Flight Fatality Rate SIGMA (0.43 ppm) (with ±1.5 Sigma Shift) 7

8 Six Sigma: A Benchmark or Goal The specific value of 6 Sigma (as opposed to 4 or 5 Sigma) is a benchmark for process excellence. Adopted by leading organizations as a goal for process capability. Delivering nearly defect-free products and services Focus on variation reduction 8

9 Six Sigma: A Method A well defined process and toolkit used for: Product/Service Design Product & Process Improvement 9

10 DMAIC Approach Define Measure/Analyze Improve Control Sporadic Spike (Special Cause) 30 Defect Rate Chronic Waste Common Cause Variation 5 0 Chronic Waste Time

11 DMAIC Approach Define Measure Analyze Improve Control Select customer-focused problem, document business impact, determine project deliverables, complete project charter, form multidisciplinary team Develop factual understanding of current process, locate current problem sources, establish as-is process baseline, measure baseline process capability Identify potential defect root causes and sources of variation, investigate using experiments and statistics, verify root causes Use design of experiments to develop solutions. Eliminate the verified root cause(s), or reduce sources of variation, demonstrate with data Implement methods to hold the gains such as SOP s and statistical process controls (SPC). 11

12 Six Sigma DMAIC Tools Define Measure Analyze Improve Control Project Scope Project Charter Business Impact Voice of the Customer (VOC) Affinity Diagram Kano Model CTQ Tree diagram Process Map Data Collection Control Charts Pareto Charts Prioritization Matrix Measurement System Analysis Process Capability Yields (RTY) Multivari Analysis Cause & Effect Matrix FMEA Hypothesis testing ANOVA Noise Variables Scatter plots Design of Experiments Brainstorming & Creativity tools Design of Experiments (DOE) Full Factorial Fractional Factorial Response Surface Pilot Trials Implementation Plan Statistical Process Control (SPC) Standard Operating procedures (SOP) Data Collection & sampling plans Control Plans Measurement Systems Analysis (recheck) Project summary & lessons learned 12

13 All Work is a Process Requirements Requirements Supplier Inputs Process Value-added tasks Output Customer Feedback Feedback S. I. P. O. C. 13

14 What is a process? Controllable Inputs (X s) Process Key Process Outputs (Y s) Noise Inputs Y = f (X) 14

15 Visualizing Process Capability Lower Spec Cust. Tolerance Upper Spec Process Capability C p =1 15

16 Visualizing Process Capability Lower Spec Cust. Tolerance Upper Spec C p =2 16

17 Visualizing Process Capability Lower Spec Cust. Tolerance Upper Spec Process Capability Change the process to fit in the original specification window 17

18 Process Drift 0.4 Lower Spec. Cust. Tolerance Upper Spec. C p = 1.33 C pk = Process is Centered Between the Specification s 18

19 Process Drift C p = Lower Spec. Cust. Tolerance Upper Spec. C pk = Process has Drifted Between the Specification s 19

20 Process Capability Summary Lower Specification Upper Specification Lower Specification Upper Specification Lower Specification Upper Specification Lower Specification Upper Specification Capable Process This process is not capable 20

21 Unstable Process Unstable Process Mean shifts present Excess variation (σ changes) Special causes of variation are present, Process output is not stable over time and is not predictable Fri Thur Wed Tue LSL USL Time Mon 21

22 Stable Process Stable process: Variation reduced (lower σ) Process is centered in spec window Mean shifts reduced Only common cause variation is present Process output is stable/predictable The process is termed in statistical control. LSL USL Time 22

23 History of Six Sigma Originated at Motorola in the early 80 s Doesn t use Quality in the name Uses a modification of the Deming Plan-Do- Check-Act (PDCA) cycle Adopted widely in the 90 s by major corporations including AlliedSignal (now Honeywell), GE, Kodak, and a growing list of small, medium, and large companies. 23

24 Training for Six Sigma Executives 8 hour Six Sigma overview and implementation roadmap development. Champion 30 hour course, overview of DMAIC, Tools overview Focus on developing project selection skills Black Belt 160 hours of classroom, total of four months to train Required to have a project Green Belt hours depending on training philosophy May or may not have to complete a project 24

25 Identifying Six Sigma Projects Basic Project Criteria Problem in key business activity Large financial impact Can measure and quantify performance Easy to Fix? yes Quick Hit no Solution Available? no Six Sigma Project yes Other Initiative Process focus Analyze Y = f(x) Reduce variation & defects Complex relationships 25

26 Project Focus Projects are chartered by Champions and business leaders Led by Black Belts Assisted by Green Belts Each experienced Black Belt can typically handle between 4-6 projects per year Typical financial impact is approximately \$175,000 per project Experienced Black Belt can generate about \$1M in savings per year 26

27 Why adopt Six Sigma? Concept has been around for 16 years, proven track record at big companies. Has shown the most endurance and return on investment of any improvement initiative. Starting to be implemented in small and mediumsized corporations. Provides a comprehensive set of philosophies, tools, methods, and fundamental concepts leading to quantifiable business results. Involves the entire organization; from CEO, CFO, Champions, Black Belts, Green Belts, and workers. 27

28 What are the Challenges? Takes careful preparation and a commitment to fundamental change efforts required. Training key for all levels in the organization It is not a quick fix nor a one-size-fits-all approach. Statistical analysis is not generally part of the engineering discipline in most companies. Tendency to work on too many projects at once. Resource limitations are real! Need to manage expectations on payback time, typically takes 9-12 months from roll-out to start seeing quantifiable financial gains. 28

29 What are the Rewards Increased value to the customers and shareholders. Improved reliability and predictability of products and services. Significant reduction in defects. Institutionalization of a process mindset. Increased competitive advantage. 29

30 Some Results Motorola 10 years; \$11 Billion Savings AlliedSignal - \$1.5 Billion estimated savings General Electric started efforts in : \$1.2 Billion less \$450 Million in costs net benefits = \$750 Million 1999 Annual Report: more than \$2 Billion net benefits 2001: 6,000 projects completed; \$3 Billion in savings 30

31 Six Sigma Summary Disciplined & Systematic Approach Process orientation, drive for variation reduction Focus on quantitative methods and tools Focus on control to hold the gains Uses a new metric for defects (sigma, DPMO, ppm) Results oriented management leadership, using data-driven decision making Significant training & organizational learning 31

32 Six Sigma Summary Success happens one project at a time Good project selection leads to large financial impact Implementation is hard work, not magic. Expect bumps in the road, stay the course, results will happen Six Sigma is A journey not a destination 32

33 Questions? 33

34 Jeffrey Gotro, Ph.D. 34

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Using Lean Six Sigma to Accelerate CMMI Implementation Briefers: Diane A. Glaser Michael D. Barnett US Army LCMC SEC CMMI Coordinator Communication Software ASQ SSGB Engineering Support Division MTC Technologies,