GBD MAPS Global Burden of Disease Major Air Pollution Sources. Meeting of the GBD MAPS Working Group IIT Bombay January 18-19, 2016

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1 GBD MAPS Global Burden of Disease Major Air Pollution Sources Meeting of the GBD MAPS Working Group IIT Bombay January 18-19, 2016 Project Overview and Meeting Objectives

2 GBD MAPS Global Burden of Disease Major Air Pollution Sources A multi-year collaboration between the Health Effects Institute (HEI), Tsinghua University, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of British Columbia and other leading academic centers Overall Objectives Estimate the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from coal burning and other major sources in China, India and Eastern Europe using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework Prepare a series of reports to disseminate the estimates timed to inform planned policy decisions Apply methods developed in GBD MAPS on a global scale, integrate them into the GBD framework and update them on a regular basis to track progress

3 Project Participants and Roles Health Effects Institute (HEI) Overall management and conduct of GBD MAPS Recruitment and leadership of a Working Group to design and conduct the analyses and a high-level Steering Committee to advise the Working Group Management of dissemination of major reports in cooperation with IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Work with HEI and the Working Group to design and conduct analyses within the GBD frame work participate in preparation and dissemination of major reports Working Group Design and conduct analyses Prepare detailed work plan and timeline Prepare major reports Steering Committee Advise the Working Group on project design and conduct Consult on communication and dissemination of results

4 GBD MAPS Working Group Michael Brauer (co-chair) University of British Columbia Aaron Cohen (co-chair) Health Effects Institute Wang Shuxiao Tsinghua University Zhang Qiang Tsinghua University Ma Qiao Tsinghua University Zhou Maigeng China CDC Yin Peng China CDC Wang Yuxuan University of Texas, Galveston Kan Haidong Fudan University Randall Martin Dalhousie University Aaron van Donkelaar Dalhousie University Richard Burnett Health Canada Mohammad Forouzanfar IHME Joseph Frostad IHME Chandra Venkataraman IIT Bombay Pankaj Sadavarte IIT Bombay Sarath Guttikunda IIT Bombay

5 GBD MAPS Steering Committee Dan Greenbaum / Bob O Keefe Health Effects Institute Terry Keating Hao Jiming Yang Gonghuan Christopher Murray Majid Ezzati KS Reddy US EPA (invited) Tsinghua University Peking Union Medical College IHME Imperial College PFHI Delhi Michal Krzyzanowski Kings College London Greg Carmichael WMO/U Iowa

6 Analysis strategy 3 main components conducted sequentially : Estimate coal-combustion and other source contributions to ambient PM 2.5 using high-resolution CTMs (e.g., GEOS Chem) and the latest available information on current and projected emissions Multiply the above (1) spatially-resolved fractions with current highresolution ambient exposure estimates developed for Global Burden of Disease (2013 or later) which a) combine satellite-based estimates + GEOS Chem b) TM5 FASST simulations c)available annual average PM measurements at 0.1 x 0.1 resolution to estimate coal combustion ambient PM 2.5 Use coal combustion ambient PM 2.5 from (2) together with a) cause-specific mortality and DALY estimates from the Global Burden of Disease and b)integrated exposure response functions to estimate coal combustion and other source contributions to disease burden for a) China at country and provincial levels b) and for India and Eastern Europe at country level

7 GBD MAPS Global Burden of Disease Major Air Pollution Sources Multi-year collaboration between the Health Effects Institute (HEI), Tsinghua University, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of British Columbia and other leading academic centers Objectives Estimate the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from coal burning and other major sources in China nationally and by province, India and Eastern Europe using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework Estimate disease burden attributable to coal burning overall and for major sectors (power generation, industrial, household), as well as burden attributable to other source sectors Estimate coal and other major source contributions to ambient PM 2.5 and their associated disease burdens for both present-day conditions and future policy scenarios (2030)

8 Work products Prepare three major reports on the burden of disease attributable to coal burning and other major sources in China, India, and Eastern Europe. The reports will be published by HEI and attributed to both HEI and IHME An internal report on how the methods developed for assessment of the burden from coal-burning can be scaled-up to include multiple major sources of air pollution on national, regional and global scales and integrated into the overall GBD framework

9 Burden of Disease Attributable to Coal-Burning and other Major Sources in China Review Draft January 2016 Coal burning most important single sectoral contributor to ambient PM 2.5, responsible for 40% of population-weighted PM 2.5 in China Coal combustion caused an estimated 366 K deaths in PM 2.5 from coal combustion was the 12 th leading risk factor for mortality in 2013 Domestic soild fuel combustion caused 177K deaths in 2013, more than industrial coal (155 K deaths), transportation (137 K deaths), or coal-fired power plants (86.5 K deaths) All future scenarios are predicted to lead to increases in future deaths attributable to ambient PM 2.5 due to increased ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD and lung cancer in an aging population Strict control of PM levels is therefore critical to stabilizing or reducing burden in the face of changing demographics

10 Timeline

11

12 WORKING GROUP MEETING OBJECTIVES Review and tweak if necessary Indian emissions estimates Finalize source sectors for India Discuss and finalize future policy relevant scenarios Finalize plans for simulations and evaluation Discuss use of GBD 2013 vs for exposure, risk and burden Revisit and revise timeline for India report

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