Chicago s Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

Transcription

1 Chicago s Grnhous Gas Emissions: An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis for Chicago and th Mtropolitan Rgion Rsarch Summary Th Cntr for Nighborhood Tchnology

2 Acknowldgmnts This rsarch and rport ar a rsult of collaboration btwn many popl and organizations. Rsarch Tam Jnnifr McGraw, Climat Chang Program Managr Ptr Haas, Ph.D, Analytic Dirctor Ann Evns, Dirctor, CNT Enrgy Linda Young, Rsarch Managr Matthw Cunningham, Analyst Nicol Fridman, Editor Albrt Bndict Suzann Carlson Harly Coopr Cindy Copp Amanda Escobar-Gramigna Paul Esling William Eyring Bn Hlphand Marjori Isaacson Larry Kotwa Emily Mtz Janic Mtzgr Rachl Schu Anthony Star Lindy Wordlaw Writrs and Editors Scott Brnstin Ruth Klotz-Chambrlin Nicol Gotthlf Tim Lang Emily Mtz Kathrin Nichols Jill Sigl Anntt Stahlin Kathryn Tholin CNT also wishs to thank th following popl for thir tim and assistanc in rviwing our rsarch and providing fdback: Sadhu Johnston, Adl Simmons, Julia Parzn, Karn Hobbs, Antonia Ornlas, Brndon Daly, Michal Johnson, Craig Sibn, William Aboldt, Russ Fostiak, Th COTE of th Chicago Chaptr of th Amrican Institut of Architcts, Chicago s Climat Chang Task Forc, th Chicago Climat Chang Rsarch Advisory Committ, World Rsourcs Institut, and th Union of Concrnd Scintists. Fundrs This rsarch would not hav bn possibl without th gnrous support of Global Philanthropy Partnrship, Th Joyc Foundation, Th Lloyd A. Fry Foundation, and Grand Victoria Foundation Cntr for Nighborhood Tchnology

3 Tabl of Contnts A Historic Challng... 4 Chicago s Emissions... 5 Local Govrnmnt Emissions... 7 Rigorous Accounting... 7 Mtropolitan Rgion... 7 Chicago Forcast... 8 Rduction Targts... 9 Mitigation Stratgis Thirty Thr Solutions Framing Crosscutting Enrgy Dmand Enrgy Supply Transportation Industrial Procsss and Product Us Wast and Watr Land Covr and Forstry Mitigation Stratgis Tabl... 40

4 A Historic Challng Global climat chang poss a challng of historic proportions for Chicago and th world. This summary provids a comprhnsiv analysis of th scop and scal of that challng by offring a rigorous accounting of grnhous gas (GHG) missions in Chicago and th mtropolitan rgion, an in-dpth invstigation of thir sourcs, and a dscription of th likly trnds if thy ar not rducd. This summary also offrs a path forward in th form of a portfolio of mission-rduction stratgis dsignd for Chicago. This rsarch is intndd to srv as a foundation that will nabl Chicago to implmnt its commitmnt to rducing GHG missions. Th Cntr for Nighborhood Tchnology (CNT) was commissiond to conduct this rsarch to advis th City of Chicago and th Chicago Climat Chang Task Forc in thir work to crat a climat action plan for Chicago. CNT s task was to provid a rigorous accounting of GHG missions in Chicago and th surrounding six countis, dvlop a forcast for futur missions, and rsarch mitigation stratgis that, whn takn to scal and implmntd togthr, could rduc th city s missions to 25 prcnt blow 1990 lvls by This rsarch was part of a broadr ffort by th City to dtrmin th local ramifi - cations of climat chang, for its citizns and for City oprations. In addition to CNT s work on missions and mitigation stratgis, th City ngagd rsarchrs to xamin climat-chang adaptation, conomic impacts, and th ffcts of climat chang on City dpartmnts. Thr ar four main lssons to tak away from th rsarch prsntd hr: 1) Elctricity, natural gas, and transportation ar th main sourcs of Chicago s global warming impact. Ninty-on prcnt of Chicago s missions com from ths thr sctors thrfor most mission rductions must com from ths aras. 2) If no action is takn, Chicago s GHG missions will continu to grow. Without mitigation, Chicago s missions of 12 tons of carbon dioxid quivalnt (CO 2 ) pr capita in 2000 would b xpctd to grow 35 prcnt by ) Chicago is part of th solution rgionally and globally. Emissions ar growing at a fastr rat in th six-county rgion than in Chicago. Chicago s ffi cint land us and transit assts allow a houshold to own fwr autos and driv lss than in othr aras; ncouraging dvlopmnt in location-ffi cint aras and xpanding transportation altrnativs can rduc th impacts of growth on th rgion s missions. Morovr, as Chicago taks action it will srv as a modl for communitis around th world. 4) Thr is no singl cur, but many curs with many bnfits. CNT has idntifi d 33 climat-chang-mitigation stratgis that, takn togthr, would allow Chicago to contribut its shar to climat stabilization. With arly, continuous, and aggrssiv action, ths stratgis would rduc Chicago s GHG missions and bring additional nvironmntal and conomic bnfi ts to Chicago. 4 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

5 Citis ar sn as both a caus of global warming and part of th solution. CNT s rsarch ovr th past dcad dmonstrats that citis bcaus of thir inhrnt ffi - cincis in transportation, communication, and ntworks rprsnt a major rsourc for GHG rduction. But whil Amrica s citis ar alrady its most ffi cint placs, major improvmnts ar possibl. Th 33 mitigation stratgis idntifi d by CNT could dramatically rduc GHG missions in Chicago by using ffi cincy and innovation to rduc consumption of fossil fuls th primary sourc of GHGs in Chicago and curtail othr mission sourcs, such as wast. Chicago s Emissions Th fi rst stp in addrssing Chicago s contribution to global warming is undrstanding th scop, scal, and sourc of missions. To inform this discussion, CNT calculatd a GHG missions invntory for Chicago and th six-county rgion for 2000 and Twlv Tons pr Capita In 2000, Chicago mittd 34.7 million mtric tons of carbon dioxid quivalnts (MMTCO 2 ) of grnhous gass 12 tons for ach of Chicago s 2.9 million rsidnts, or 32 tons pr houshold. 1 Figur 1 shows that Chicago s pr capita missions, xcluding air travl, ar gratr than Nw York s (7 tons) and London s (6 tons), but lss than Dnvr s (19 tons) Total Emissions (MMTCO 2 ) Population (millions) Pr Capita Emissions (tons) Nw York London Chicago Dnvr Figur 1 Grnhous gas missions of citis. 1 U.S. Cnsus Burau, U.S. Dcnnial Cnsus 2000, An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 5

6 Thr Main Sourcs Th majority (91 prcnt) of Chicago s missions cam from thr sourcs th consumption of lctricity, natural gas, and transportation (Figur 2). This is consistnt with mission sourcs nationally and globally. A Growing Problm Chicago s GHG missions ar growing rapidly; if no changs ar mad thy ar likly to continu to do so for yars to com. Emissions grw 4.2 prcnt btwn 2000 and 2005 to 36.2 MMTCO 2 (Figur 3). U.S. missions grw 1.6 prcnt ovr th sam priod. 2 Wast and Wastwatr, 1.4, 4% Industrial Procsss and Product Us, 1.6, 5% Transportation, 7.3, 21% Enrgy, 24.4, 70% 34.7 MMTCO 2 Figur 2: Chicago s Grnhous Gas Emissions Grnhous Gas Emissions (MMTCO 2 ) Wast and Wastwatr Industrial Procsss and Product Us Transportation Enrgy Yar Figur 3: Chicago s Grnhous Gas Emissions 2000 and U.S. Environmntal Protction Agncy. Invntory Of U.S. Grnhous Gas Emissions And Sinks: April 2007, pdf. 6 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

7 Local Govrnmnt Emissions Th City of Chicago is a mmbr of th Chicago Climat Exchang (CCX), a voluntary, lgally binding missions rduction and trading program. As part of its mmbrship, th City rports GHG missions associatd with its oprations ach yar. Ths missions ar includd in Chicago s communitywid invntory and rprsnt approximatly thr prcnt of th total. Chicago has mt its commitmnts as a CCX mmbr by lowring missions and purchasing carbon crdits ach yar. Rigorous Accounting CNT usd Intrgovrnmntal Panl on Climat Chang (IPCC) mthods and local data sourcs, in combination with modling of national data to local dmographics, to documnt all dirct sourcs of GHG missions in Chicago and th six-county rgion, as wll as indirct missions from lctricity consumption and wast. Emissions wr calculatd for th six major catgoris of grnhous gass rgulatd undr th Kyoto Protocol carbon dioxid (CO 2 ), mthan (CH 4 ), nitrous oxid (N 2 O), hydrofl uorocarbons (HFCs), prfl uorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hxafl uorid (SF 6 ). Emissions wr convrtd into CO 2 using global warming potntials from th IPCC Third Annual Assssmnt Rport. 3 CO 2 formd th majority of Chicago s GHG missions in all study yars. Mtropolitan Rgion Th gographic boundaris of Chicago ar porous. Chicago s conomy is rgional vry minut of vry day, individuals and goods travl in and out of th city. A rgional invntory of GHG missions documnts ths activitis and puts Chicago s missions invntory in contxt. A rgional invntory also hlps documnt ral changs in missions valus, as opposd to shifts in mission sourcs from city to city. Finally, bcaus many mitigation stratgis rquir rgional coopration, it is important to undrstand th rgional footprint. Suburban Growth Th six-county ara Cook, Will, DuPag, Kan, McHnry, and Lak countis had a population of 8.1 million as of th 2000 cnsus. Chicago s 2.9 million rsidnts mad up 36 prcnt of th rgion. According to th Amrican Community Survy, th rgion s population grw two prcnt btwn 2000 and 2005 to 8.2 million, whil Chicago s population fll by almost svn prcnt ovr that priod to 2.7 million. Howvr, Chicago s population incrasd about two prcnt from 2005 to 2006, to almost 2.8 million. Transportation Gratr Shar of Total Th Chicago rgion mittd 105 MMTCO 2 in 2000, or 12.9 tons pr capita. As in Chicago, nrgy and transportation accountd for 91 prcnt of th rgional missions (Figur 4, nxt pag). Howvr, transportation was a largr shar of total missions in th rgion 31 prcnt than in Chicago 21 prcnt. Th 56 million vhicl mils travld in th rgion in 2000 was 6,894 mils pr capita, 64 prcnt highr than th 4,214 mils pr capita in Chicago. Som of this gratr vhicl travl may hav bn du 3 J. T. Houghton, t. al. (Eds.), Climat Chang 2001: Th Scintifi c Basis Contribution of Working Group I to th Third Assssmnt Rport, Intrgovrnmntal Panl on Climat Chang, An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 7

8 Industrial Procsss and Product Us 4.9% Wast and Wastwatr 3.4% Agricultur 0.5% to trucking on th intrstats, but CNT s location-ffi cincy rsarch shows that th ffi cint land us and transportation altrnativs in Chicago nabl lss auto ownrship and rducd driving in th city. Transportation 30.5% Enrgy 60.6% 105 MMTCO 2 Figur 4: Chicago Rgion s Grnhous Gas Emissions 2000 grow to 125 MMTCO 2 in 2020 and 169 MMTCO 2 in All Rgional Sctors Growing Fastr than in Chicago Emissions in all sctors grw at a fastr rat in th rgion than in Chicago, rsulting in 10 prcnt growth btwn 2000 and 2005 to 116 MMTCO 2, or 13.8 tons pr capita. Th two main sourcs of this growth wr lctricity us and solid-wast gnration. If th Chicago rgion continus on its currnt path, missions ar xpctd to Chicago Forcast To undrstand th scal of action rquird to addrss GHG missions in Chicago, CNT ndd to dtrmin th missions likly to occur if no action is takn businss as usual. CNT analyzd rgional and national forcasts and historic trnds for GHG missions and th undrlying conditions and activitis that gnrat thos missions, such as vhicl ffi cincy and natural gas us, to forcast Chicago s missions through In addition, an stimat of Chicago s 1990 missions was cratd, bcaus 1990 is a common baslin yar for mission-rduction targts, but data for 1990 ar not asily availabl at th city scal. Mor than Population Growth If Chicago continus on its currnt path, its GHG missions ar stimatd to grow at an avrag rat of 0.7 prcnt annually to 39.3 MMTCO 2 in 2020 a 13 prcnt incras ovr 2000 lvls and 47.0 MMTCO 2 in 2050 a 35 prcnt incras ovr 2000 lvls. This is a fastr rat of growth than th ight prcnt population incras that is forcastd for Chicago btwn 2000 and By 2005, Chicago s missions had alrady grown 12 prcnt abov th stimatd 1990 lvl of 32.3 MMTCO 2. 4 Th forcast was dvlopd using th bst availabl data at th tim of th analysis. As discussd on pag 46 of th full rport, futur forcasts will tak into account th impact of Illinois Enrgy Effi cincy programs and th 2007 Enrgy Act and will likly lowr th annual growth rats forcast valu of 3,260,897 xtrapolatd to Sourc: Northastrn Illinois Planning Commission Forcasts of Population, Housholds and Employmnt by County and Municipality. Sptmbr 27, 2006, rvisd/endorsed_2030_forcasts_ pdf. 8 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

9 Rduction Targts Climat scintists stimat that a prcnt rduction blow 2000 global GHG missions by 2050 is ndd to rach an atmosphric concntration of GHGs at ppm and stabiliz th climat at dgrs Clsius abov pr-industrial tmpraturs. 6 For Chicago to achiv an 80 prcnt rduction blow 1990 GHG mission lvls by 2050, it must start to tak action today. Bcaus th Unitd Stats has bn th largst contributor of GHG missions in th world to dat, it can b argud that U.S. mission rductions should go byond th global avrag rquird for climat stabilization. Mting an intrim targt of 25 prcnt blow 1990 lvls by 2020 would mov Chicago toward this largr goal. Fiftn Million Mtric Tons To mt a 2020 targt of 25 prcnt blow 1990 GHG mission lvls would rquir a rduction of 15.1 MMTCO 2 against businss-as-usual lvls to 24.2 MMTCO tons pr capita (Figur 5). Grnhous Gas Emissions (MMT CO 2 ) Dcras against BAU rquird to mt targt MMTCO Targt Valu MMTCO Yar Figur 5: Chicago Businss as Usual Grnhous Gas Emissions and Rduction Targts 6 B. Mtz, t. al. (Eds.), Climat Chang 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to th Fourth Assssmnt Rport of th Intrgovrnmntal Panl on Climat Chang, Intrgovrnmntal Panl on Climat Chang, An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 9

10 Mitigation Stratgis CNT conductd a broad survy of projcts and programs that can rduc GHG missions, soliciting input from stakholdrs and rsarching bst practics in communitis around th world to idntify solutions that suit Chicago. Stratgis wr valuatd on rduction potntial, cost-ffctivnss, fasibility, additional bnfi ts, rgional impact, and opportunity for rapid dploymnt. Many programs with smallr mission-rduction potntials wr combind into largr stratgis that mt th scal ndd. Svral community and stakholdr mtings informd th rsarch. Ths mtings includd participation by architcts, transportation offi cials, nvironmntalists, biking advocats, and concrnd citizns. A wbsit was dvlopd to solicit idas for GHG rductions in Chicago, and mor than 200 suggstions wr submittd. Aftr rviw of all mitigation idas, 33 wr slctd for in-dpth rsarch. Climat chang is a global problm; mitigating it is both a national and a local issu. Many stratgis to rduc GHG missions ar larg-scal, such as changing our lctricity infrastructur. But many othrs, such as rsidntial nrgy ffi cincy, ar inhrntly local. This rport xamins both typs of solutions, with a focus on actions Chicago can tak by Thirty-Thr Solutions No on solution will achiv Chicago s GHG rduction goal; rathr, dozns must b implmntd simultanously. CNT rsarchd 33 mission-rduction stratgis that, takn togthr, can mt th goal of rducing 15.1 MMTCO 2 against businss as usual by Two of th stratgis, Cap and Trad and Carbon Tax, wr rsarchd as umbrlla stratgis that could nabl all of th othrs; thus, thir missions savings ar qual to that of th whol. Th mitigation of climat chang will continu wll byond 2020, and will rquir th participation of all Chicagoans rntrs, homownrs, businss ladrs, ducators, invstors, and policymakrs. Th rsults will b not only fwr GHG missions, but a bttr way of living with lss congstion, improvd air quality, rducd nrgy costs for homownrs and businsss, and a clanr, tchnologically advancd lifstyl. Chicago can show th world that addrssing climat chang is not only ncssary and possibl, but it can also bnfi t housholds, businsss, and communitis. CNT analyzd ach of th 33 stratgis to dtrmin mission-rduction potntials, th natur and scal of th programs and policis ncssary, similar activitis undrway in Chicago and th rgion that could b built upon, xampls of succssful programs from othr aras, and implmntation opportunitis and barrirs. Th complt txt of this analysis can b found in th full rport, Chicago s Grnhous Gas Emissions: An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis for Chicago and th Mtropolitan Rgion. Th stratgis addrss vry sctor of Chicago s missions invntory. Thy includ stratgis to rduc missions from nrgy dmand and supply; transportation; land covr and forstry; wast and watr; and industrial procsss and product us. Four framing stratgis ar prsntd that infl unc th implmntation of all othr stratgis through ladrship, ducation and bhavior chang, masurmnt, and arly action. Each of ths stratgis has a rol in Chicago s ovrall climat stratgy. Whil 10 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

11 thy rang widly in scal and scop, ach on can mak a signifi cant contribution to Chicago s GHG rduction ffort. In som cass, such as building rtrofi ts, th potntial rductions ar larg and th valu of implmntation is clar. Som smallr stratgis, such as th planting of trs, ar valuabl componnts of a broadr sustainabl stratgy bcaus thy bring signifi cant additional bnfi ts, or can b rlativly asily dployd. Raching th ambitious but critical goal of rducing Chicago s missions 25 prcnt blow 1990 lvls by 2020 rquirs action in all sctors. All th stratgis framd hr, takn togthr and dployd at scal, could rach Chicago s ovrall rduction goal. Som stratgis with th biggst rductions also would bring th biggst conomic bnfi ts to rsidnts and businsss. Enrgy and transportation ffi cincis would sav Chicago housholds hundrds or thousands of dollars a yar, and would bring substantial savings to Chicago businsss as wll. Stratgis to rduc nrgy us in buildings account for approximatly 30 prcnt of GHG rductions analyzd. Dmand-rduction stratgis ar as critical as supply sid stratgis for rductions at th city and rgional lvl. Enrgy savings in buildings and automobil mils not drivn can account for narly half of th targtd missions rductions. Thy can tak advantag of th inhrnt ffi cincy of urban aras, and th xtraordinary rsourcs rprsntd by our public transportation ntwork. Employing rnwabl sourcs of nrgy and mor ffi cint vhicls can nsur that th nrgy w do us is as clan as possibl. Improving nrgy ffi cincy of buildings is th biggst singl opportunity for Improving nrgy ffi cincy of buildings (by incrasing insulation, for xampl) is th biggst singl opportunity for grnhous gas rduction in Chicago. GHG rduction in Chicago, bcaus 70 prcnt of Chicago s missions ar gnratd by lctricity and natural gas us. Sinc 80 prcnt of th buildings that will xist in 2020 ar alrady built, ths stratgis must apply to both xisting and nw structurs. Stratgis that xpand th opportunitis to rduc auto travl will rduc grnhous gass and improv quality of lif. Transportation ffi cincy accounts for approximatly 20 prcnt of GHG rductions analyzd. Figur 6 (nxt pag) summarizs th savings of mitigation stratgis xamind for this analysis. Th two umbrlla stratgis of Cap and Trad and Carbon Tax ar not displayd bcaus thy ar policis that could nabl th othr stratgis. Th thr framing stratgis with indirct bnfi ts ar also xcludd. An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 11

12 Savings vs Businss as Usual 2020 (MMTCO 2 ) Bhavior Chang Efficint Urban Form Rsidntial Enrgy Rtrofits C&I Enrgy Rtrofits Applianc Trad-in Grn Building Rnovation City Enrgy Cod Nw Grn Buildings Rnwabl Gnration Rpowr Existing Powr Plants Squstration DG and CHP Stratgy Houshold Rnwabls Nw Gnration Efficincy Transit Walking and Bicycling Carshar, Carpool and Vanpool High Spd Rail < Altrnativ Fuls Flt Efficincy Efficint Us of Fuls Fright Automobil Usr Fs Balanc Transportation Cost < Altrnativ Rfrigrants Zro Wast Watr Efficincy Trs and Grn Roofs Figur 6: Chicago GHG Mitigation Stratgis 12 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

13 Framing Thr ar dozns of programs Chicago can implmnt to rduc its GHG missions, but svral ovrarching changs ar ndd to nsur th ffctivnss of any missionrduction stratgy. Ths framing stratgis, discussd blow as #1-#4, includ strong ladrship and incntivs from th City of Chicago, promotion of bhavior chang by rsidnts and businsss, masurmnt and vrifi cation, and arly aggrssiv action to rduc missions. Mitigation Stratgy #1: Th City of Chicago Provids Exmplary Ladrship on Climat Chang Action, Rsulting in Affordabl Solutions. Th City of Chicago has mrgd as a national ladr in nvironmntal programs and policis, and is stratgically positiond to provid th ladrship rquird to stablish a climat action plan and implmnt mitigation stratgis to rduc Chicago s carbon missions. Th City has a numbr of tools at its disposal incntivs, rgulations, fi nancing, high public profi l, accss to buildings, rlationships with stat and fdral lgislators and can ffctivly combat climat chang whil maintaining th city s charactr and proplling it forward conomically. Th City can build on its rol as a ladr at th municipal, stat, and fdral lvl to ncourag Chicago rsidnts and businsss to tak action. It can fostr chang on th fdral lvl by lading larg citis in an ffort to promot supply-sid changs in lctricity gnration and advancs in transportation ffi cincy. Th City can also continu to provid ladrship in stat nrgy and transportation policy by advocating for funding for nrgy ffi cincy and transit infrastructur. Th City has a numbr of initiativs, including grn roofs, SmartBulbs, and pilot rcycling programs, that can b xpandd and marktd to mor rsidnts and would lad to additional GHG savings. Ladrship on nw initiativs aimd at rducing nrgy consumption and missions in buildings, and promoting transit options, would stablish th City as an innovator on climat chang. Th Chicago Climat Action Plan will not b succssful or viabl without th City s ladrship from lctd offi cials to dpartmnt ladrs and staff. Th City of Chicago could lvrag its political wight on th rgional, stat, national and intrnational lvls dvloping standardizd GHG accounting, stramlining data accss, lobbying for rgulations and incntivs that will rduc GHGs, and applying for funding to implmnt programs that will rsult in GHG rductions. Th complxity and scal of climat chang ncssitats dbat, political ngotiation, dialogu, and sharing of bst practics and transparncy. Mitigation Stratgy #2: Promot Bhavioral Chang among Rsidnts and Businsss that Will Elicit Ongoing Rspons and Action on Climat Chang. GHG Rduction Potntial: MMTCO 2 In an April 2007 survy of adults nationwid, 52 prcnt said th issu of global warming was xtrmly or vry important to thm prsonally, with anothr 30 prcnt ranking it somwhat important. 7 Dspit th rising concrn about climat chang, our actions do not yt rfl ct th chang ndd to solv th problm. Small but signifi cant bhavioral 7 ABC Nws/Washington Post/Stanford Univrsity Poll. April 5-10, N=1,002 adults nationwid. MoE ± 3. Fildwork by TNS. An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 13

14 Data must b radily availabl in standard formats that can b accssd by a wid audinc to nabl informd choics and broad participation in climat action. changs turning off appliancs and lights, incrasing cooling tmpraturs and rducing hating tmpraturs by 3 dgrs in rsidntial proprtis, and using programmabl thrmostats in commrcial spacs can signifi cantly impact CO 2 savings. Translating concrn about climat chang into prsonal bhavioral chang would substantially rduc grnhous gass. This stratgy could sav MMTCO 2, of which MMTCO 2 ar from rsidncs and MMTCO 2 ar from commrcial proprtis. This assums that 50 prcnt of rsidncs (585,000 housholds) adopt fi v bhavior changs, and 50 prcnt of commrcial buildings (11,200) adopt hating and cooling bhavior changs. An illustrativ, not a comprhnsiv, list of practical bhavior changs for rsidncs includs: 1) liminating on 10-mil car trip pr wk; 2) rducing hating tmpratur by 3 dgrs; 3) incrasing cooling tmpratur by 3 dgrs; 4) turning off thr 60-watt bulbs two hours pr day; 5) rplacing air conditionr fi ltrs; and 6) turning off appliancs with a phantom load, such as vido quipmnt and lctronics. Th program lmnts for commrcial proprtis includ: 1) rducing hating tmpraturs by 3 dgrs and incrasing cooling tmpraturs by 3 dgrs; and 2) changing to a programmabl thrmostat that adjusts tmpraturs during work and nonwork hours. Additional bnfi ts of ths changs includ rducd houshold xpnss (will vary by houshold, but could b up to $250), and rducd pollution, which lads to incrasd halth bnfi ts. Additionally, making minor, asy changs can dvlop awarnss and willingnss that grows to mbrac largr changs. Mitigation Stratgy #3: Us Masurmnt, Vrification, Data, and Mtrics to Track and Targt Actions, and to Continuously Improv Prformanc. To monitor progrss on missions rduction goals, it is important to collct data rgularly, rcord changs and striv to improv prformanc continuously. Morovr, undrstanding such data gospatially will hlp targt missions rduction fforts in aras of th city with th highst missions or th gratst potntial for cost-ffctiv rductions. Bsids providing th basis for policis and programs, data could b usd mor ffctivly in Chicago and th rgion to idntify th bst opportunitis to mitigat climat chang. Ongoing data collction and valuation will hlp idntify mitigation programs with th most impact, and hlp valuat whthr limitd rsourcs ar dirctd to th most cost-ffctiv stratgis. Data must b radily availabl in standard formats that can b accssd by a wid audinc including policymakrs, community organizations, and th gnral public to nabl informd choics and broad participation in climat action. Establishing a GHG baslin not only allows Chicago to undrstand its missions sourcs, but also nabls th city to mak comparisons ovr tim and to st and masur rduction goals. Masurmnt and data mak mitigation stratgis concrt and provid information upon which popl can act. Standardizd data collction and dissmination can spark mor community involvmnt and bttr choics, though thr may b concrns about anonymity. Whil it is usful to hav vry spcifi c information rgarding on s building or block or nighborhood, it is important to protct th confi dntiality of information such as account numbrs. Data tlls a story and provids knowldg; knowldg shaps choics. Data-informd choics rsult in cost savings and incrasd ffi cincy. Thr ar costs associatd with th analysis of data, valuation of rduction programs, 14 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

15 and ongoing quality improvmnt. Ths includ staff tim, training on data collction, and dissmination and tchnology costs, including softwar packags and wb programming. Th City of Chicago can minimiz ths costs by intgrating data collction into xisting jobs and idntifying fficint tchnology, softwar packags and support that hlp fulfill multipl objctivs, rathr than duplicating fforts. Framing Stratgy #4: Encourag Early Action and Rapid Chang. Th grnhous gass w mit today can last dcads, cnturis, or vn millnnia in th atmosphr. 8 With ach day that w dlay action on GHG mitigation, th problm compounds. In many sctors, solutions ar alrady bing implmntd, if slowly, using xisting tchnologis. In thos aras, incrasing th rat of adoption can b just as important as major innovation. This is spcially tru in situations involving larg capital invstmnts and quipmnt or facilitis with long liftims. A powr plant or skyscrapr built today is going to last dcads. To rduc th missions profi l of our community in 10 or 20 yars, w nd to chang th dcisions bing mad today. To spur chang, which th markt alon is not doing fast nough, th City of Chicago could considr masurs that support climat-chang mitigation such as implmnting incntivs, changing rgulations and providing fi nancing. For xampl, through th zoning cod, th City can rduc th off-strt parking ratio whil incrasing th minimum bicycl parking ratio 9 and plan for altrnativ transportation mods. Changs to th zoning cod could also incras tr-planting rquirmnts for parkways and ncourag compact dvlopmnt, which rsults in rducd automobil travl. Th City could also offr fi nancing through its Emrgncy Housing Assistanc Program to facilitat wathrization for low-incom housholds. Early action and rapid chang that lads to GHG rductions will also rduc pollution and contribut to improvd halth outcoms. Othr bnfi ts could includ incrasd ffi - cincis, bcaus popl ar acting collctivly, and job cration, as nw industris and practics mrg. Incntivs, rgulations, and fi nancing could hlp support chang in all housholds not just thos that can afford purchass such as nw hybrid vhicls. Crosscutting Stratgis #5, 6 and 7 could affct missions in all sctors of Chicago by changing th conomics of GHG missions through a cap-and-trad or carbon tax, and by changing th land-us pattrns that shap our community and its transportation dmand. Mitigation Stratgy #5: Enact a Carbon Tax. GHG Rduction Potntial MMTCO 2 A carbon tax could us markt forcs to rduc missions of carbon dioxid and othr GHGs by intrnalizing thir tru social cost, and would tax nrgy sourcs that mit GHGs into th atmosphr. A proprly xcutd national carbon tax would plac th country, and thrfor Chicago, on th way toward achiving th long-trm goal of 80 prcnt rductions from th 1990 lvl by Intrgovrnmntal Panl on Climat Chang, Pub_Ch02.pdf. 9 City of Chicago Dpartmnt of Zoning. Ordinanc Txt, Chaptr 10: Parking and Loading. July 18, An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 15

16 An ffctiv, nationwid carbon tax would rduc th full lifcycl of GHG missions sinc it would tax all nrgy sourcs mitting GHGs. A local carbon tax would not crat as many lifcycl bnfi ts sinc it would tax usrs of nrgy but not supplirs dmand would b affctd but not production. As bhavior changd du to rising costs, th rsult would likly b mor ffi cincy, mor consrvation, and dcrasd consumption. A carbon tax would ncourag companis to bcom mor ffi cint and rduc thir GHGs, gaining a stratgic advantag ovr comptitors. Enrgy consrvation can also offst th nrgy-pric incrass to thos individuals and businsss that adapt to th changing marktplac. To b truly ffctiv, a carbon tax must b lvid nationally or vn globally. It can also b issud at th stat or local lvls of govrnmnt. A national carbon tax would hav a much gratr ffct on rducing GHGs than a local on, sinc nrgy production crats such a larg shar of GHGs and nrgy rarly is gnratd in th jurisdiction whr it is consumd. Th biggst bnfi t of a carbon tax is simplicity, spcially whn compard to cap and trad systms that must b fi n-tund to nsur that th corrct amount of missions not too high or too low ar factord in from th start. Mitigation Stratgy #6: Enact a Cap and Trad Systm. GHG Rduction Potntial MMTCO 2 Th City of Chicago could raliz signifi cant CO 2 savings through support of a cap and trad systm, which sts th amount of missions allowd for diffrnt GHG producrs (cap) and allows th pric of missions to fluctuat with th markt (trad). Cap and trad is considrd an ffctiv markt solution to curb GHG missions, sinc businsss can sll xcss polluting crdits whn thy rduc missions. Companis that rduc missions hav mor crdits to sll, whil largr pollutrs ar forcd to buy th crdits from thm at markt rats. To b most ffctiv, a cap and trad systm must b implmntd across industris on a larg scal, or nationally or worldwid, which adds to its complxity. A proprly xcutd national cap and trad program would plac th country, and thrfor Chicago, toward th goal of achiving a 25 prcnt GHG rduction from 1990 lvls by 2020 and an 80 prcnt rduction from 1990 lvls by To ffctivly rduc GHG in 2020 and byond, such a systm would nd to b implmntd vry soon. Th cap would b lowrd stadily ovr tim and by 2020 would rach th targt of 25 prcnt rduction from 1990 lvls. Lik a national carbon tax, a national cap and trad systm would rduc th full lif cycl of GHG missions sinc it would b a limit on all U.S. missions producrs. With a cap and trad systm, th initial allotmnt of crdits must b considrd carfully to nsur th markt will function corrctly. Too many or too fw availabl crdits could hampr th systm. Also, a systm could b st up that would not rward havy pollutrs by assigning thm mor crdits than companis that hav curbd missions rcntly. Mitigation Stratgy #7: Implmnt Efficint Urban Form. GHG Rduction Potntial: to MMTCO 2 Th natur and form of th built nvironmnt contribut to GHG-producing activitis that occur in a community, particularly in th nrgy and transportation sctors. Rsidnts of disprsd, sprawling communitis may travl long distancs to rach work, school or shopping, most likly in automobils. In contrast, thos who liv in compact, dns, 16 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

17 Thos who liv in compact, dns, transit-rich communitis us lss nrgy for travl, hating and cooling. transit-rich communitis mak shortr commuts to dstinations that ar clos by. Th dns building forms of compact communitis condos, townhouss, and attachd housing us fwr xtrior walls and ar inhrntly mor nrgy-ffi cint than standalon buildings. Effi cint urban form is as important as tchnology and ful managmnt in rducing GHG missions, and a dirctd approach to futur dvlopmnt can contribut to carbon rductions. Smart growth principls ncourag dns, mixd-us, and pdstrian-orintd dvlopmnt. Thy promot mobility choics such as transit, car sharing, walking and biking that rduc rlianc on automobils. Th stratgy of transit-orintd dsign (TOD) promots smart-growth principls by locating compact, mixd-us, walkabl dvlopmnt within a half-mil of transit stations, dcrasing auto dpndncy. In its 2030 plan, th Northastrn Illinois Planning Commission (now part of Chicago Mtropolitan Agncy for Planning [CMAP]) projcts houshold growth of 106, for th city and 480,614 in th six-county rgion by Thus, th suburbs will add 374,372 housholds. Th businss-as-usual growth scnario assums housholds will stablish thmslvs vnly across th rgion, in aras NIPC dsignatd rsidntial in If smart growth and TOD principls wr mployd, and th sam housholds wr dvlopd within a half-mil of fi xd-guid-way transit stations (transit zons) in Chicago and th rgion, thr would b a rduction of to MMTCO 2 in Chicago. This rang of rductions was calculatd using th houshold transportation modl publishd by th Brookings Institution 11 to calculat total driving associatd with houshold location. 10 Chicago Mtropolitan Agncy for Planning, Original NIPC 2030 Forcasts, illinois.gov/2030_forcasts_original.aspx. 11 Shlly Poticha, Ptr Haas, t. al., Th Affordability Indx: A Nw Tool for Masuring Tru An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 17

18 Rsidnts of smart-growth communitis could s considrabl savings du to dcrasd nrgy costs and lss rlianc on automobils. Rsarch has shown that Chicago-ara housholds in transit-rich nighborhoods pay 15 prcnt of thir incom for transportation, as opposd to 23 prcnt in communitis with no transit. 12 Larg savings also can b had by making mor ffi cint us of xisting infrastructur, such as transportation and nrgy systms, rathr than dvloping in nw aras. Enrgy Dmand Th majority of Chicago s GHG missions 70 prcnt cam from lctricity and natural gas us in That maks nrgy us th largst targt for mission-rduction stratgis. Stratgis #8-#13 focus on rducing th dmand for nrgy in Chicago s buildings, which will cut nrgy bills for rsidnts and businsss. Mitigation Stratgy #8: Enrgy Rtrofits in Rsidntial Buildings. GHG Rduction Potntial: 1.80 MMTCO 2 Enrgy rtrofi ts in xisting rsidntial buildings ar critical to climat mitigation bcaus 80 prcnt of th buildings xisting today will still b standing in Rsidntial nrgy ffi cincy programs can rduc lctricity and natural gas consumption an avrag of 30 prcnt by rtrofi tting homs using xisting tchnologis. 14 Enrgy-consrvation masurs (ECMs) addrss building nvlops, hating, cooling, hot watr, lighting systms, and appliancs. Thy do so using insulation, nrgy-ffi - cint windows, high-ffi cincy boilrs and furnacs, programmabl thrmostats or nrgy-managmnt systms, solar or tanklss hot watr systms, and compact fl uorscnt bulbs. Tchnical and fi nancial assistanc can hlp proprty ownrs mak th bst choics and provid thm with accss to capital to achiv th most savings and bst rturn on thir Rsidntial nrgy-consrvation masurs includ us of compact fl uorscnt light bulbs. invstmnts. It is possibl to rduc missions by 1.3 MMTCO 2 in Chicago by implmnting nrgy rtrofi ts in about half of xisting rsidntial buildings, assuming an avrag of 30 prcnt nrgy savings pr unit. That avrag is basd on a national valuation of wathrization programs, assuming comprhnsiv nrgy rtrofi ts ar Affordability of Housing Choic, Th Brookings Institution, /01communitydvlopmnt_th-cntr-for-transit-orintd-dvlopmnt.aspx. 12 Ptr M. Haas, Ph.D., t. al., Housing & Transportation Cost Trad-offs and Burdns of Working Housholds in 28 Mtros, Cntr for Nighborhood Tchnology and Virginia Tch, Pw Cntr on Global Climat Chang, Working Togthr Bcaus Climat Chang is Srious Businss, summary.cfm. 14 Martin Schwitzr, Estimating th National Effcts of Th U.S. Dpartmnt of Enrgy s Wathrization Assistanc Program with Stat-Lvl Data: A Mta Evaluation Using Studis from 1993 to 2005, Oak Ridg National Labs, 18 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

19 implmntd and quipmnt is maintaind. 15 To achiv this rduction, a larg-scal nrgy ffi cincy initiativ must b launchd building from Chicago s xisting programs (which srv 7,000 units annually in targtd markts), idntifying nw initiativs for undrsrvd markts, and taking ths programs to a much largr scal. Th goal is to rtrofi t 400,000 rsidntial units by Rsidntial nrgy ffi cincy programs ar cost-ffctiv, provid xcllnt rturn on invstmnt, and can provid bnfi ts for housholds and th conomy. Chicago could implmnt innovativ and broad stratgis to mak its housing stock mor ffi cint and mak th city a mor affordabl plac to liv and work. Mitigation Stratgy #9: Enrgy Rtrofits in Commrcial and Industrial Buildings. GHG Rduction Potntial: 1.30 MMTCO 2 Enrgy rtrofi ts in commrcial and industrial buildings could sav 1.3 MMTCO 2 in Commrcial and industrial nrgy ffi cincy programs could achiv an avrag of 30 prcnt savings by using xisting tchnologis. 16 Th rtrofi ts addrss building nvlops, hating, cooling, hot watr, lighting systms, and plug load. Tchnologis and stratgis usd includ lighting rtrofi ts, passiv day-lighting, rcommissioning of buildings, supr insulation, nrgy-ffi cint windows, high-ffi cincy boilrs and furnacs, hat- rcovry systms, nrgy-managmnt systms, solar or tanklss hot-watr systms, and high-ffi cincy quipmnt to rduc plug load. Tchnical and fi nancial assistanc can hlp proprty ownrs achiv th most savings and bst rturn on thir invstmnts. Emissions could b rducd by 1.11 MMTCO 2 by rtrofi tting 50 prcnt of xisting commrcial buildings (9,000) by Emissions could b furthr rducd by 0.19 MMTCO 2 by rtrofi tting 50 prcnt of xisting industrial buildings (200) ovr th sam priod. By rducing oprating costs, nrgy ffi cincy programs provid substantial bnfi ts for commrcial-building ownrs. Ths programs also hav a positiv impact on individual buildings. Th Building Ownrs and Managrs Association (BOMA) stats that commrcial offi c managrs in Chicago offr comptitiv rnts and cit rducd oprating costs through nrgy ffi cincy improvmnts whn compting for tnants. Additionally, tnants oftn sk grnr offi c spac to improv mploy comfort and mt company goals. 17 Mitigation Stratgy #10: Applianc Trad-in. GHG Rduction Potntial: 0.28 MMTCO 2 Enrgy-ffi cint hom appliancs primarily air conditionrs and rfrigrators cut down on nrgy us, rsulting in GHG rductions. This mitigation opportunity promots appli- 15 Martin Schwitzr, Estimating th National Effcts of Th U.S. Dpartmnt of Enrgy s Wathrization Assistanc Program with Stat-Lvl Data: A Mta Evaluation Using Studis from 1993 to 2005, Oak Ridg National Labs, 16 Pw Cntr on Global Climat Chang, Working Togthr Bcaus Climat Chang is Srious Businss, summary.cfm. 17 Midwst Enrgy Effi cincy Allianc. Illinois Rsidntial Markt Analysis, Final Rport. May 12, 2003 An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 19

20 anc trad-in programs that lowr nrgy consumption. Appliancs typically us lctricity and ar products with rlativly short lif cycls. In th sam vin, changing lighting from incandscnt bulbs to compact fl uorscnt bulbs (CFLs) rducs GHGs. A varity of trad-in programs allow popl to rplac oldr and lss-ffi cint appliancs or lighting with nw and mor ffi cint ons. This stratgy calls for spding up rplacmnt and mor aggrssivly targting trad-ins for nrgy-ffi cint appliancs in low-incom communitis whr rsidnts cannot radily afford nw rfrigrators and air conditionrs. Without aggrssiv action, pockts of old, inffi cint appliancs will rmain in lowr-incom housholds and in rntal units rgardlss of natural turnovr, largly du to affordability. For rfrigrators, old modls ar somtims placd in a basmnt or garag whn a nw on is purchasd incrasing nrgy us instad of capturing th nrgy savings of th nw unit. A potntial MMTCO 2 could b savd through an applianc trad-in and CFL program that targts 10 to 20 prcnt of th on million housholds in Chicago. Byond th valu of rducd nrgy consumption (.g., rductions in missions of CO 2 and othr pollutants such as mrcury and particulat mattr), bnfi ts of rplacmnt programs includ bttr appliancs for rcipints, rducd lctricity costs for housholds, and incrasd awarnss of nrgy ffi cincy. Mitigation Stratgy #11: Grn Building Rnovation. GHG Rduction Potntial: 0.31 MMTCO 2 Th City of Chicago could rquir that all commrcial and rsidntial rnovations b ratd grn. Grn building is dfi nd as a way to signifi cantly rduc or liminat th ngativ impact of buildings on th nvironmnt and on th building occupants through sustainabl sit planning, safguarding watr and watr ffi cincy, nrgy ffi cincy, consrvation of matrials and rsourcs, and indoor nvironmntal quality. 18 Th U.S. Grn Building Council (USGBC) dvlopd a rating systm for grn buildings and is considrd th country s lading authority on th topic. Th USGBC assrts that, in addition to th obvious nvironmntal bnfi ts to building grn, thr ar conomic, halth and community bnfi ts. 19 Whil much mdia focus rgarding grn buildings is on nw construction, xisting buildings also can b rnovatd to grn standards. Rnovation typically involvs upgrading building systms by insulating walls and th roof, saling air laks, rplacing windows, upgrading HVAC hot-watr systms, rplacing appliancs with highr-ffi cincy modls, rcommissioning building systms to assur thy ar opratd proprly, and upgrading lighting systms. To maximiz th nrgy savings of xisting buildings, th City of Chicago could mandat grn-building standards for all substantial rnovations of rsidntial and commrcial buildings in Chicago. Th rsidntial sctor could adhr to th nwly stablishd guidlins of th Chicago Grn Homs Program, whil th commrcial sctor could bnfi t from a similarly structurd rating program. Th grn-building program should includ training for involvd partis, including industry, tradspopl and homownrs. Implmnting nrgy rtrofi ts that adhr to grn building standards could rduc 18 U.S. Grn Building Council, Atlanta Chaptr wb sit, U. S. Grn Building Council, U.S. Grn Building Council, 20 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

21 Whil much discussion of grn buildings focuss on nw construction, xisting buildings also can b rnovatd to grn standards. missions by 0.31 MMTCO 2. Rductions could amount to 0.19 MMTCO 2 in rsidntial buildings and 0.12 MMTCO 2 in commrcial buildings. According to building prmit data, thr ar an avrag of 6,000 rsidntial rnovations and 100 commrcial building rnovations ach yar in Chicago. This stratgy proposs rtrofi tting 60,000 rsidntial units and 1,000 commrcial buildings by It assums that all rsidntial and commrcial rnovations bginning in 2010 will b rtrofi t- td to grn-building standards. Mitigation Stratgy #12: Updat Chicago s Enrgy Cod. GHG Rduction Potntial: 1.13 MMTCO 2 Updating th City of Chicago s nrgy cod to strngthn consrvation guidlins and rquir complianc at th point of proprty sal could sav 1.13 MMTCO 2 in Building cods stablish minimum standards for structural and mchanical safty of buildings and thir systms to protct public halth and sanitation. Enrgy cods hav bn addd to basic building guidlins to mak buildings mor nrgy-ffi cint. 20 Th implmntation of nrgy cods can rduc nrgy us by 15 to 30 prcnt. 21 A local study of th impact of adopting th Intrnational Enrgy Consrvation Cod (IECC) found 20 R. Bartltt, M.A. Halvrson, and D.L. Shankl, Pacifi c Northwst National Laboratory, U.S. Dpartmnt of Enrgy. Undrstanding Building Enrgy Cods and Standards. Richland, Washington: L. Kinny, Enrgy Prformanc Workshops: Making th Intgratd Dsign Procss Fast and Effctiv, Bouldr, Colorado: Platts. An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 21

22 Ovrall savings from grn building dsign ar mor than tn tims th initial invstmnt. that rsidntial buildings in complianc with IECC hav annual savings of 25 prcnt. 22 Chicago adoptd its own nrgy cod th Chicago Enrgy Consrvation Cod, modld aftr th Intrnational Cod Council s (ICC) 2001 IECC in Full nforcmnt of th currnt nrgy cod and any subsqunt rvisions is ndd to raliz th full GHG rduction potntial of this stratgy. Raching th full savings potntial assums nrgy-cod complianc is rquird at th point of sal for rsidntial housing in th City of Chicago, stimating consrvativly that fi v prcnt of housing units ar sold annually 421,000 units btwn 2010 and Ths units would b rtrofi ttd as ndd to mt th nrgy cod. A 25 prcnt nrgy savings, and corrsponding GHG rduction, is anticipatd from ths rtrofi ts. 24 Th most signifi cant bnfi t of this stratgy is lowrd houshold nrgy costs. Thr would b additional bnfi ts to th local conomy associatd with invstmnt in housing stock and job cration in th building trads. Mitigation Stratgy #13: Grn Building for all Nw Construction. GHG Rduction Potntial: 1.17 MMTCO 2 Th City of Chicago could rquir that all nw rsidntial and commrcial construction b built to grn-building standards. If such a comprhnsiv policy bgan in 2010, a GHG rduction of 1.17 MMTCO 2 in 2020 would rsult. Nwly constructd rsidntial and commrcial buildings built to grn-building standards would rduc nrgy consumption and missions by 50 prcnt compard to xisting consumption. Assuming all structurs ar built to th highst standards, th rduction potntial would b 0.35 MMTCO 2 from rsidntial grn buildings and 0.82 MMTCO 2 from commrcial grn buildings 1.17 MMTCO 2 total. This assums that all buildings 6,500 rsidntial and 400 commrcial buildings pr yar would b built to LEED or quivalnt standards. 25 Th costs and savings associatd with grn building hav bn wll studid. Th comprhnsiv rport, Th Costs and Financial Bnfi ts of Grn Buildings, 26 confi rms that upfront costs to support grn dsign ar, on avrag, two prcnt highr than for typical buildings but rsult in lif cycl savings of 20 prcnt of total construction costs. Ovrall savings ar mor than 10 tims th initial invstmnt. Enrgy Supply Stratgis #8-#13 idntify mthods for Chicago to rduc missions and wastd nrgy by incrasing ffi cincy. Chicago can also rduc missions by nsuring that th nrgy 22 R.G. Lucas, Pacific Northwst National Laboratory, U.S. Dpartmnt of Enrgy, Assssmnt of Impacts from Adopting th 2000 intrnational Enrgy Consrvation Cod for Rsidntial Buildings in Illinois. Richland, Washington: Fbruary Chicago Enrgy Consrvation Cod, 24 R.G. Lucas, Pacifi c Northwst National Laboratory, U.S. Dpartmnt of Enrgy, Assssmnt of Impacts from Adopting th 2000 intrnational Enrgy Consrvation Cod for Rsidntial Buildings in Illinois. Richland, Washington: Fbruary rs_fi nal.pdf. 25 U.S. Cnsus Burau, U.S. Dcnnial Cnsus 2000, 26 Grg Kats, Th Costs and Financial Bnfi ts of Grn Buildings, 22 Grnhous Gas Emissions:

23 it dos us is clanr. Stratgis #14-#19 focus on crating a lowr-ghg supply of nrgy. Ths supply stratgis ar strongly rlatd to th dmand stratgis abov th mor w can rduc dmand, th lss supply w will nd to clan up. Mitigation Stratgy #14: Build Rnwabl Elctricity Gnration. GHG Rduction Potntial: 3.00 MMTCO 2 Photovoltaic (PV) tchnology and wind powr ar two provn altrnativ clan nrgy sourcs for utility-scal lctricity production. Th missions-rduction potntial of this stratgy is 3 MMTCO 2 and assums that 20 prcnt of th missions associatd with fossil ful-fi rd lctricity plants in th rgional powr pool ar rplacd with rnwabl lctricity gnration. In addition to PV and wind powr, this stratgy xplors lctricity production from biomass, wav or tidal powr, and biogas. Ths sourcs ar mor xprimntal than PV and wind powr, and ar mor xpnsiv to implmnt now xpns bing th largst barrir to rnwabl lctricity gnration. Traditional hydrolctric powr has not bn includd in this analysis bcaus thr ar only limitd opportunitis in th rgion. Using rnwabl sourcs instad of fossil ful plants will rsult in GHG savings and othr bnfi ts including rducing air pollutants that harm public halth, incrasing opportunitis for innovation, and crating nw jobs. Th dcommissioning of xisting plants and manufacturing of nw tchnology has nvironmntal burdns such as wast gnration and matrial us. But th lif-cycl bnfi ts of clan gnration outwigh thos burdns from a GHG prspctiv and may do so by othr masurs as wll. Mitigation Stratgy #15: Rpowr Existing Powr Plants. GHG Rduction Potntial: 2.5 MMTCO 2 Rpowring xisting powr plants by moving from coal-powrd to natural gas-powrd gnration can signifi cantly rduc CO 2 missions from lctricity gnration. Coal has high carbon contnt and, as a ful sourc for lctricity, is a larg CO 2 mittr. Natural gas-fuld plants also mit CO 2, but at a lowr rat pr kilowatt-hour of lctricity. Rpowring a coal plant can b simpl or complx. A simpl transformation may only rquir adding nw quipmnt to an xisting plant, whras a mor complx modl might rquir installing nw, highr ffi cincy gas gnrators 27 a substantial rnovation that rtools th whol plant and uss only th xisting building shll and sit. Costs, challngs and rduction potntial vary according to th complxity of th transformation. Rpowring th 21 coal-fi rd powr plants in Chicago s rgional powr pool that ar locatd in Illinois could rduc missions associatd with Chicago s lctricity consumption in th amount of 2.5 MMTCO 2. This analytical modl uss a consumption-basd mthodology that accounts for all th plants that mak up th rgional lctricity supply, so Chicago s bnfi ts ar scald in proportion to its shar of rgional lctricity consumption (7.26 prcnt). Whil rpowring plants can provid signifi cant nvironmntal bnfi ts, thr ar a numbr of challngs. First, yt-to-b-idntifi d capital is ndd to covr th implmntation costs. Scond, givn currnt and projctd coal and natural gas prics, and absnt a cap and trad or quivalnt fi nancing mchanism that prics fuls basd on 27 L, Hnry and Shashi Kant Vrma. Coal or Gas: Th Cost of Clanr Powr in th Midwst. Cambridg: JFK School of Govrnmnt, Harvard Univrsity, An Invntory, Forcast and Mitigation Analysis 23