NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolNewHampshireLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters. February2016

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1 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolNewHampshireLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters February2016

2 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist New Hampshire Poll of 2,551 Adults This survey of 2,551 adults was conducted February 2 nd and February 3 rd, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of New Hampshire were interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of New Hampshire from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±1.9 percentage points. There are 2,232 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.1 percentage points. Among registered voters, 839 had a phone match in the voter file and 1,393 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points and ±2.6 percentage points, respectively. There are 989 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in New Hampshire includes unaffiliated voters who prefer to vote in the Republican presidential primary and registered Republicans. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points. There are 653 likely Republican primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.8 percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. 1

3 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters New Hampshire Adults New Hampshire Registered Voters New Hampshire Potential Republican Electorate New Hampshire Likely Republican Primary Voters Party Registration Party Identification Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians New Hampshire Voter Registration List Interview Type Nature of the Sample - New Hampshire New Hampshire Adults New Hampshire Registered Voters Col % Col % Democrat n/a 2 Republican n/a 3 Independent n/a 4 Other n/a Democrat n/a 2 Republican n/a 2 Independent n/a 4 Other n/a Very liberal n/a Liberal n/a n/a 3 Conservative n/a 2 Very conservative n/a n/a 1 Men 4 4 Women 5 5 Under or older to to to or older 2 3 White 9 9 African American Latino Other Hillsborough 3 3 Rockingham 2 2 Northern Counties 1 1 Southern Counties 3 3 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 6 6 Not college graduate 5 5 College graduate 4 5 Married 5 5 Not married 4 4 Yes 1 1 No Practice a Religion 3 3 Does not Practice a Religion 6 6 Match 3 3 No Match 6 6 Landline 5 5 Cell Phone 4 4 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Adults. Interviews conducted February 2nd and February 3rd, 2016, n=2551 MOE +/- 1.9 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. New Hampshire Registered Voters: n=2232 MOE +/- 2.1 percentage points. 2

4 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters New Hampshire Potential Republican Electorate New Hampshire Likely Republican Primary Voters Party Registration Party Identification Past Participation* Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians New Hampshire Voter Registration List Interview Type Nature of the Sample - New Hampshire New Hampshire Potential Republican Electorate New Hampshire Likely Republican Primary Voters Col % Col % Republican 6 6 Independent 3 3 Democrat Republican 5 5 Independent 4 3 Other Yes 9 9 No Very liberal Liberal 3 3 Conservative 4 4 Very conservative Men 5 5 Women 4 4 Under or older to to to or older 3 3 White 9 9 African American Latino Other Hillsborough 3 3 Rockingham 2 2 Northern Counties 1 1 Southern Counties 2 2 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 6 6 Not college graduate 5 5 College graduate 4 4 Married 6 6 Not married 3 3 Yes No Practice a Religion 4 4 Does not Practice a Religion 5 5 Match 4 4 No Match 5 5 Landline 6 6 Cell Phone 3 3 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted February 2nd and February 3rd, 2016, n=989 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. New Hampshire Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=653 MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points. 3

5 Donald Trump Marco Rubio TedCruz John Kasich JebBush Chris Christie BenCarson Carly Fiorina Other Undecided RepublicanLikelyVoters NewHampshireLikely RepublicanPrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently PartyIdentification Republican Independent Ideology Conservative Veryconservative PoliticalIdeology Conservative-Very conservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters Hilsborough Rockingham NorthernCounties SouthernCounties HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate 18to29 30to44 45to59 60orolder Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelical Christians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion NewHampshireVoter RegistrationList Match NoMatch InterviewType Landline CelPhone New HampshireRepublicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvoted absentee NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolNewHampshireLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVotersincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedFebruary2ndthroughFebruary3rd,2016,n=653MOE+/-3.8percentagepoints. Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters 4

6 Stronglysupport Somewhat support Mightvote diferently Unsure RepublicanLikelyVoters NewHampshireLikelyRepublicanPrimary VoterswithaCandidatePreference PrimarySupport DonaldTrump MarcoRubio TedCruz PartyIdentification Republican Independent Ideology Conservative Veryconservative PoliticalIdeology Conservative-Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters Hilsborough Rockingham NorthernCounties SouthernCounties HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion NewHampshireVoter RegistrationList Match NoMatch InterviewType Landline CelPhone Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>,somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthink youmightvotediferentlyonprimaryday? NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolNewHampshireLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreferenceincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedFebruary 2ndthroughFebruary3rd,2016,n=584MOE+/-4.1percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters 5

7 Marco Rubio TedCruz Chris Christie Donald Trump JebBush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Ben Carson Other Undecided RepublicanLikelyVoters NewHampshireLikely RepublicanPrimaryVoters withacandidatepreference PrimarySupport DonaldTrump MarcoRubio TedCruz PartyIdentification Republican Independent Ideology Conservative Veryconservative PoliticalIdeology Conservative-Very conservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters Hilsborough Rockingham NorthernCounties SouthernCounties HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion NewHampshireVoter RegistrationList Match NoMatch InterviewType Landline CelPhone Whoisyoursecondchoiceforthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimary[includingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowarda candidate]? NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolNewHampshireLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithCandidatePreference:InterviewsconductedFebruary2ndthroughFebruary3rd,2016,n=558MOE+/-4.1percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New Hampshire Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters 6

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