6 th annual PIN Conference

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1 6 th annual PIN Conference Claes Tingvall on behalf of Swedish Government, Swedish Transport Administration

2 A proud Minister Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd

3 In Short We are very proud of the Award given to Sweden by ETSC PIN We think that targets and measuring progress is the key to success The number of fatalities in road traffic crashes went up in 2011, but 2011 was still the second best year we have had 2010 was probably where we had the luck on our side 2012 looks better than 2011, so far

4 What Sweden has done since last year We have concentrated on planning for 2020! We have some insights now that we did not have before

5 Background - Can we sharpen the 2020 target? Compared with 2010 figures: - 50% road fatalities - 40% (25%) severely injured

6 The new approach Speed Sober driving Normal driving Deviation from normal driving Emerging situation Critical situation Crasch unavoidable Crasch Impaired driving Drifting Driving too close Loss of Controll Vehicle Support Driver alert LDW ESC Autobrake Belt, airbag Road Support Rumble strips Barriers Other Helmet

7 The new approach 1. Reasonable assumptions on some SPI by 2020 Things we know or we reasonably assume are going to happen in the road transport system by Analysis of 2010 crashes based on these assumptions How many and which crashes will be left then? 3. Analysis of residual (crashes left by 2020) and potential of other intervention areas Is it possible to reach the new target?

8 1. Deeper knowledge about SPI by 2020 It is possible to make reasonable predictions for 2020 for different SPI Safe vehicles ie ESC, AEB, ABS mc Vehicle mileage with ESC Safe infrastructure ie median barrier

9 2. Analysis of fatal crashes STA s in-depth studies Every fatal crash in 2010 was investigated, case by case Chain of events in each crash was analyzed separately Normal körning driving Deviation Avvikelse from från normal normal körning driving Annalkande Emerging Critical Kritisk Crash Krasch un- kritisk situation oundviklig situation situation avoidable Krasch Normal driving körning Deviation Avvikelse from från normal körning normal driving Annalkande Emerging kritisk situation situation Critical Kritisk situation Crash Krasch unavoidable oundviklig Krasch

10 Baseline for fatalities excluding suicide Fatalities P.bil/Lätt lb Tung lastbil Buss Motorredsk Motorcykel Snöskoter Fyrhjuling Moped Cykel Fotgängare Passenger car HGV Bus Heavy Motorcycle mach. Snowmobile ATV Moped Bicycle Pedestrian

11 Baseline for persons with permanent medical impairment 1% (RPMI1%), 724 with RPMI10% RPMI 1% RPMI 10% Personbil Lastbil Buss Motorcykel Moped + S Cykel + S Fotgängare Övrigt Passenger car HGV Bus Motorcycle Moped Bicycle Pedestrian Other

12 Prediction 2020 based on assumptions Fatalities 180 Fatalities Residual % (167) Adressed by % (99) Passenger car P.bil/Lätt lb Tung lastbil Buss Motorredsk Motorcykel Snöskoter Fyrhjuling Moped Cykel Fotgängare HGV Bus Heavy Motorcycle mach. Snowmobile ATV Moped Bicycle Pedestrian

13 Prediction of reduced fatalities in passenger cars No. killed in passenger cars Suicide Prediction

14 What type of fatal crashes are left in the residual? Crashes in intersection not prevented by reconstruction or better crashworthiness, n=15 Loss-of-control by cars not equipped with ESC in the year 2020, n=12 Rear-end collision with cars not equipped with FCW, n=4 Lane departure scenarios by cars not equipped with LKA in the year 2020, n=13 Loss-of-control with cars equipped with ESC, under-steer in high speed, n=6 Loss-of-control due to disease, n=5 Unbelted passenger in cars that would have survived with seat-belt, n=6 Violations with excessive speeding and aggressive driving, n=8 Others, n=

15 New Safety Performance Indicators SPI 1. Speed compliance, national road network 2. Speed compliance, municipal road network Baseline 2007 Baseline 2010 Earlier target New target 43 % Ca 43 % 80 % 80% 52 % Ca52 % 80 % 80% 3. Sober driving 99,71 % 99,74 % 99,90 % 99,9%/ 100 % 4. Belt use 96 % 96 % 99% 99 % 5. Helmet use -Bicycle 27 % 27 % 70 % 65 % -Moped 6. Safe passenger cars 20 % 35 % Not defined 80% 7. Safe motorcycles (ABS) 9 % 18 % Not defined 70 % 8. Saferoads 50 % 67 % 75 % 95 % 9. Safe passages for vulnerable road users 10. Safe roadsurfaces for cyclists and mopeds Ca 25 % Unknown Not defined Unknown Not defined

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