European Real Estate Issues
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1 European Real Estate Issues ` The outlook for the German residential property market May 2005 Summary International investors have started to enter the German residential market, in order to participate in the privatisation of the sector. Several jumbo acquisitions have recently taken place. The forecast is a pace of privatisation of 150,000 units/year for the next 5 years. The last period of stagnation of the German economy should not hide the country s traditional and continuing economic strength. Confidence has weakened, but stability, export capacity, and the ability to benefit from the development of the new Eastern countries are confirmed. The recent important structural reforms will increasingly produce their full effect. We believe in a process of slow recovery. On the German residential market, values have remained flat for the 12 last years, a unique situation in the EU. There is no certainty that buying now will allow investors to catch the bottom of the market; but it certainly means acquisition at a low cost, and a participation in the privatisation process in good conditions of risk. Our last report pointed out several structural reasons why the residential market would become more and more attractive. The shortage of supply, combined with a growing and wealthier demand resulting mainly from strong household formation fundamentals in the next 7 10 years will drive values up. In the most dynamic areas, rent increase is also very likely and will support that evolution. Expecting to earn money quickly in the market is uncertain. But it can reasonably be assumed that investors, provided that the location is right (differences between German regions remain an issue), will be winners over a 10 to 15 years time period. Recent new interest for the residential market Eurohypo issued its first report on the outlook of the German residential market at the end of Philippe Tannenbaum, Head of Research 1
2 At that time, we pointed out that some 20% of the German housing stock was owned by the government and various companies and organisations, all of them being very likely potential sellers. Later on, Eurohypo internal valuation department RAC issued a figure of 3 to 4 million housing units, corresponding to a value of 30 to 40 bn, that seemed likely to arrive on the market, especially as a way to manage the budget crisis. Our forecast is a privatisation of 150,000 units/year for the 5 coming years (see appendix). Sales have already started; the buyers are mainly the US style opportunity funds, and the total amount of transactions already completed may be estimated at c. 10bn. Private owners, Cooperatives, Professional owners, Church, Owner - Occupier, Municipal housing company, For example, late last year, Morgan Stanley purchased with Citigroup a 394m portfolio of non performing loans and spent 2.1bn on 40,000 flats previously owned by Thyssen Krupp. Very recently, Fortress spent 3.5bn to acquire 82,000 housing units in Berlin, and Cerberus/Goldman Sachs acquired units for ca. 2,1 bn. Other ow ners (Funds, Banks ), Source: Euro Hypo - RAC Private housing company, State housing company, There are bad reasons and good reasons for buying German residential assets. A bad reason would be that there remain no assets to buy anywhere else (which is largely true), while money is still flowing into the property sector. A strong reason to invest in the German residential sector today is that after 12 years of stagnation, prices may generally be considered as low, and may benefit from both the slow and progressive, but highly probable recovery of the German economy, and the positive demographic underlying trends supporting residential demand. The German economy: recovery will take time, but the traditional strengths are confirmed. The German economy is still weak, with a GDP growth rate for 2005 expected to be around 0.8%. This is below the 2004 level of 1.6% which was already one of the weakest among the EU big countries. The economy is still affected by the huge gap between the western and the eastern parts of the country and the very low level of consumer and investor confidence (the April ZEW index has further deteriorated) in their own economy. This means that the recovery process, after a period of quasi-recession, will be long. But fundamentals are not that bad. 2
3 At 2,128bn, Germany still has the largest GDP in Europe (France GDP amounts to 1,557bn, and the UK to 1,591bn). In the long term, the Eastward expansion of the EU has shifted the focal point of business activity from West to East, and Germany will most certainly benefit from this development. A significant portion of the companies currently based in France that have announced an intention to relocate their headquarters in the coming years have declared that they will to go to Eastern Europe. Germany will be on their way, due to the stability of the country, its good international transportation networks, and its traditional orientation towards the East. In the mid term, reforms of significant importance that have been implemented recently, such as labour market, tax, pensions and health reforms, will facilitate the return to growth. Of course, consumer confidence remains very low. But the main drivers of the German economy are the export markets, rather than private consumption, and 2004 has been the year of the export boom the growth of German exports in volume has been 11.4%, the highest of the G7 countries (source: OECD). Fact file Germany (p) GDP growth rate (volumes) 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% -0.1% 1.6% 0.8% Inflation- consumer prices 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% Consumption growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1% Unemployment rate 7.3% 7.4% 8.1% 8.7% 8.8% 8.8% + Sources: ECB Statistics, RICS Housing Review Residential sector bottoming out? Values are still flat In our last report, we pointed out that housing prices had barely moved in the last eight years (something totally unknown in the rest of Europe), and this has been confirmed since then. The price rise of the 70 s and 80 s came to an end in 1995, the Eastern part having particularly poorly performed since then. House prices in West Germany rose in line with CPI until 1990, then less: : 7.0% p.a, : 1.8% p.a, : 1.4% p.a In East Germany, prices have not yet bottomed out: : 4.2% p.a, : -2.6% p.a According to the Bundesbank, falling prices mean that existing homes are no more expansive today than they were 12 years ago. 3
4 Index of House Prices: Desperately Flat Source: Gewos/IfS West East But Signs of Revival 11 Euro/sqm Frankfurt Koln Dusseldorf Hamburg Chart of Rental Level: In the most dynamic areas rents are well stabilised. In larger cities, particularly in the south of Germany, rents have even started to increase since 2002 Source: Gewos/IfS The stabilisation of rents could be the sign of the bottoming out, although we are principally expecting it from the decline in unemployment and the increase in confidence that is still to come. Latest recent figures in the German residential market, retail transactions Place Number of transactions Average price in ε/m 2 Net initial yield 1 Multiple on gross rents 2 Frankfurt ,10% 10,4 to 20,7 Hamburg 184 Ca. 1,100 (581 to 1.559) 4,3 to 5,2% 9 to 18,7 Düsseldorf to 16 Berlin (western part) 480 (230 to 850) 12,1 München to ,8 to 5,0 % 15 to 21 Source: Euro Hypo RAC 1 i.e net rents / acquisition cost 2 This is an other currently used reference in Germany 4
5 Prices, last residential portfolio transactions (end 2004 and beginning 2005) Portfolio (place) Size (number of flats) Price ( m.) Price/sq.m 3 ( ) GEHAG (Berlin) RWE WCM ThyssenKrupp (Ruhr) GAGFAH (Berlin) Source: EuroHypo RAC Structural factors of optimism: the weight of demography In our 2003 report, EuroHypo pointed out a combination of specific structural factors that will render the German residential sector attractive for investors in the coming period. a. On the supply side, although it is not appropriate to talk of a lack of product at the present time, there is very little new supply. The supply of housing by private landlords has historically been restricted, essentially because housing has been in the past insufficiently profitable, due to heavy regulation, but also because the background of low future expectations and rising unemployment have led individuals to defer major investment decisions. This has led public authorities to play a major role in the supply of housing. They are withdrawing from this activity, mainly for budget reasons. This will mean the programmed withdrawal, or at least revision, of the subsidy regime 4. It is very likely that subsidies will be more and more orientated towards maintaining and improving existing property in the poorer districts, rather than to the construction of new housing. The ongoing and recurring debate about the abolition of property related tax benefits (amortisation of housing cost of acquisition) which is more and more sensitive in a period of budget deficits is probably also inhibiting new construction. b. The demand side is led by strong, heavy and sustained demographic factors. Germany will experience stagnating population growth in the coming years, but the household demand for property will nevertheless continue to increase, as a result of the trend towards single person households, and 3 Assuming that the average size of a flat is 65 sq m. 4 Subsidies may under certain fiscal conditions cover from 8% to 15% of the purchase price 5
6 also as a consequence of an ageing population, with high and secured revenues. Some sources suggest that as many as 3 million new residential units will be needed. Rental activity will be sustained, but only in the most dynamic areas, by the move of the younger population, adapting in a flexible way to the two substantial divisions of the country, between East and West, (with the Berlin conurbation thriving as an island), and between North and South (with the exception of Hamburg). German rents are regulated by Federal rules, by the regional policies of the Lander, and by the municipalities, each of them having specific detailed rules. Rents are freely negotiated when a household first rents a residential unit. Once the household is in occupation, rent controls apply. That means that a more dynamic economy, leading to a more flexible population, should lead to an increase in the proportion of free rents. A mid-term scenario We believe that the main attraction of the sector is a years investment with steady growth. The case for a short term investment to catch the upturn is much more uncertain and much riskier. The investment case could be the following. In a first stage, an increase in rents The younger population, and the less affluent one, especially these coming from the East to the West will support rental demand. As a result of this, rents should go up, as allowed by the regulation. This should lead to an increase in the yields in the sector. We assume that in a first stage, initial yields should progressively move from the very low average current level of 4 to 5% to a level of 5 to 6%, which represents an increase of 25%. This will restore the housing investment profitability, for both individual and institutional investors, in a market where mortgage costs are higher than in the main other EU countries, but remain below these yield figures. Then, a value increase The coming period should see more private investors (mainly foreign), but also German property companies acting with a long-term view, enter the German residential market. In parallel, demand for buying should increase, for example from older households able to become owners. In the medium term, GDP growth should be more sustained, inducing a wealth effect. The combination of the three factors should progressively drive prices up, in a long term structural process, leaning on the fundamentals and rental increases, irrespective of speculative or cyclical aspects. 6
7 A special issue: heterogeneous regions, and how to identify the good locations German workers are flexible and they move where the jobs are. Also, housing demand differs, owing to demographic differences. Combining those two criteria, the 2004 Housing in Germany BBR report has determined 4 types of regions: - Structurally strong regions: many jobs and young people flowing in. This is Munchen, Koln, Frankfurt, Hamburg; - Growing regions: a dynamic of growth, even in the bad period of the second half of the 90s: Bonn, Mainz, Osnabruck, Freiburg; - Stagnant regions: Kiel, Kassel, Koblenz, Wurzburg; and - The old industrialised regions: Essen, Bochum, Gelsenkirchen. Translating this in terms of ability to attract investors, has split Germany into three groups: highly attractive, average, and non attractive, summarised in the following map. Eurohypo prospects for the German regions at a 2020 horizon. The red ones are the most dynamics, the white ones are in an intermediate situation, the grey ones are underperforming Source: Eurohypo RAC The investment prospect a. The current investment market is dominated by foreign opportunity fund investors. They are able to obtain high levels of leverage for acquisitions (often around 90% of cost) and are hoping for 10-20% total growth in value over 5-6 years to enable them to double or triple their equity during the period. Such investors have a high public profile, but it is not clear that they will be the real medium term drivers of the sector. Their high gearing and their need to find an exit in a fixed timescale may mean that not all will achieve their investment targets. The underlying fundamental investment market is likely to be more heavily affected by a new generation of investors, usually smaller and having a long term strategy for their investment, that is 10 to 15 years. Those investors are already looking at the market. 7
8 b. The creation of German Reits should bring another permanent part of the answer (in a first view, the market capitalization of the German Reits could amount to 60 bn, which will of course not only represent residential). Due to a specific attractive combination of yield and low risk, that sector is very likely to be attractive to individual investors, who could then provide the liquidity to the listed market as they have been doing for years with the open-ended funds. c. In the wider market a growth in owner occupation will reduce the stock available for letting and so add to the pressure on rents. More directly the ability of residential investors to exit by selling to existing tenants may increase. Sub sales in Germany (at 1-2% p.a.) have lagged well behind the levels of other models, like Sweden. 8
9 Appendix I Main recent portfolio transactions in the residential German market Portfolio Size Seller Buyer Year Price ( m) Location TEFAG Immofinanz Berlin Viterra E.ON Deutsche Annington Div. HPE Peabody GERE 2005 Berlin GEHAG Nordbank Oaktree Berlin DAL DAL Babcock and Brown 2005 RWE RWE Deutsche Annington Ruhr Jade Dt. Bank Cerberus 2004 Kiel WCM WCM Blackstone Northern Germany Gagfah BfA Fortress 2004 ca Berlin GSW Land Berlin Cerberus/Goldman Sachs 2004 Ca Berlin Thyssenkrupp Thyssenkrupp Corpus/Morgan Stanley 2004 Ca Ruhrgbiet DAL DAL Babcock & Brown, Barg Salzgitter Jade Mira Wohnprojekt GmbH, Essen Degewo Degewo, Kowoge Teil der GSW Wohnungen Cerberus GSW/ Whitehall Ruhrgebiet Cerberus Berlin ( East mostly) Vivacon bzw. German Real Estate Opportunities GmbH Mira Viterra Bochumer Hausser-Bau GmbH Berlin Ruhrgebiet Deutsche Wohnen Wohnstadt Deutsche Wohnen AG Nordhessen Vivacon 886 Vivacon Conwert-Invest Berlin Corpus 550 WestLB Corpus Dusseldort BIG-Heimbau AG DZ Bank, HSH Bank (76%), Deutsche Annington Immobilien GmbH Kiel Volksfursorge Volksfursorge GWH Cities in Hessen, Frankfurt, Kassel, bad Homburg Bellaform Viterra Bellaform Maschinenbau GmbH Essener Grundstucksgesell schaft Viterra Essener Grundstucksgesellschaft Allianz Portfolio Allianz Wohnbau Gmbh, HPE hausbau Source: Euro Hypo RAC / Deutsche Bank Essen Dusseldorf, Wuppertal, Munchen, Bonn, Koln 9
10 Main pending transactions Portfolio Size Seller Year GHG BVG 2005 NILEG NordLB 2005 WOBA City of Dresden 2005 GSW GSW 2005 Main corporate portfolios Portfolio Anzahl der WE Stck. BASF RAG RWE Siemens VW Allianz
11 Appendix II German Residential Market Trends Residential Disposals (in units) (est.) K units e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e Rail stations Germany Austria Public Sector Disposals Source: Eurohypo 11
12 Eurohypo AG is authorised by the Bundesanstalt fur Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of UK business. This publication has been prepared by and reflects the current view of Eurohypo AG. This publication is provided to you for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument in any jurisdiction. The information contained herein has been obtained from public sources and is believed by Eurohypo AG to be reliable but Eurohypo AG makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The views reflected herein are subject to change without notice. Eurohypo AG has no obligation to update, modify or amend the information in this publication or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Eurohypo AG, its affiliates and their respective directors, partners and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this publication, may from time to time deal in, hold or act as market-makers or advisers, brokers or commercial and/or investment bankers in relation to the securities, or derivatives thereof, of persons mentioned in this document or be represented on the board of such persons. Except in the case of fraud, neither Eurohypo AG nor any officer or employee of Eurohypo AG accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is for distribution only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) ( high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc ) of The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (as amended) or (iii) are intermediate customers within the meaning of the FSA s rules or to whom it may otherwise lawfully be passed on (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons ). Any investment or investment activity to which this publication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Recipients of this publication outside the UK should inform themselves about and observe any applicable legal requirements. Copyright protection exists in this publication and it may not be reproduced or distributed to any person for any purpose. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved. 12
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