UK climate change risk assessment Evidence Report 2016

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1 UK climate change risk assessment Evidence Report 2016 Frequently asked questions What is the CCRA? The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) is a five yearly assessment of the current and future risks and opportunities to the UK from climate change. The assessment is a legal requirement under the Climate Change Act (2008). The first assessment was published in January 2012 and the second is due in January For this cycle of the assessment, there will be two reports; an independent Evidence Report produced by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, and a Government Report produced by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs that will respond to the ASC s advice. These FAQs relate to the ASC s Evidence Report only. What question is the CCRA2 Evidence Report addressing? The CCRA2 Evidence Report will seek to address the following question: Based on our latest understanding of current, and future, climate risks/opportunities, vulnerability and adaptation, what should the priorities be for the next UK National Adaptation Programme and adaptation programmes of the devolved administrations? Who is the CCRA2 Evidence Report aimed at / who is likely to find it useful? The customer for the CCRA2 Evidence Report is Parliament, the UK Government and the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. The purpose of the Evidence Report is to inform the actions and policies Government and its public bodies implement through the National Adaptation Programme, as well as separate adaptation programmes in the devolved administrations. Other organisations and individuals may find the Evidence Report useful as a high level assessment and source of information about the risks and opportunities at a national level. However, the Evidence Report will not recommend particular ways to adapt to climate change or provide a detailed assessment for individual regions or organisations. Who is preparing the Evidence Report? The Evidence Report for CCRA2 is being led by the Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) of the Committee on Climate Change. The report will be an independent assessment. Government and its arms length bodies will comment on, but not sign off the report. Page 1

2 The ASC have asked ~100 independent academics and consultants to assist in the preparation and peer review of the report. Each chapter is being led by a lead contributor, who will be supported by a group of contributing authors. A list of these contributors is available on request. Who else is involved? The key customers and funders for the Evidence Report (Defra, the Government s Climate Ready programme, the Welsh Assembly Government, The Scottish Government, the Northern Ireland Executive and Natural Environment Research Council) form an advisory group for the Evidence Report and meet on a quarterly basis. Minutes of these meetings are available here The advisory group receives input on the project by a Defra-led expert working group that is made up of Government and agency representatives from across the UK. This group reports to the UK Government s Domestic Adaptation Board. The ASC also seeks advice periodically from a wider range of potential stakeholders including local Government, businesses, NGOs, and academics. However, these groups are not included in the formal governance structure. How much will it cost? The provisional budget for the CCRA Evidence Report is 1.24 million over , made up of contributions from Defra, the devolved administrations and the Natural Environment Research Council. The final budget for 2015/16 has not yet been confirmed. When will it be completed? CCRA2 as a whole (the Evidence Report + Government Report) will be laid in Parliament no later than 26 January The Evidence Report will be published by 31 st July Which sectors are covered? The Evidence Report for CCRA2 will cover the same sectors as CCRA1 (agriculture, biodiversity, built environment, business, energy, flooding, forestry, health, marine, transport, water). However, in this cycle of the CCRA we will combine different sectors into the report chapters to consider cross-sectoral issues in more detail, and some new sectors have been added. Previous sectors such as flooding, marine and water will feature throughout the whole report. The Evidence Report chapters will be: Chapter 1- Executive Summary and introduction Chapter 2- Context and approach to the CCRA Chapter 3- The natural environment and rural economy (agriculture, forestry, biodiversity). Page 2

3 Chapter 4- Infrastructure (energy, transport, water, waste, ICT). Chapter 5- People and the built environment (health, wellbeing and the built environment). Chapter 6- Business and industry (business). Chapter 7- International dimensions of risk (climate change overseas). Chapter 8- Cross-cutting issues Chapter 9- Conclusions How large will the report be? The Evidence Report will be around 400 pages in length, rather than the 2,000 page assessment that was completed in This cycle of the CCRA is smaller than the first round, and the Evidence Report will focus in more detail on a smaller number of risks/opportunities, rather than taking a broad assessment of all of the major risks and opportunities. As well as covering risks/opportunities across the whole of the UK in the main report, short summaries will be produced for England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Which countries and regions are covered? England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are covered by the CCRA. UK coastal waters are also considered in the assessment. The Evidence Report will contain a chapter on how climate change overseas may pose risks or opportunities to the UK. Risks and opportunities for the Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies will not be covered. What level of spatial detail will it have? The assessment will be at the national level, broken down to sub-national regions where the evidence exists. The Evidence Report will not routinely assess risks to individual settlements or specific businesses for example, although examples may be used to explain particular impacts where this is considered useful. How far into the future will it look? As well as current climate risks/opportunities, the assessment will consider risks/opportunities up to 2100 (in accordance with the Climate Change Act 2008). What is the methodology for the assessment? The method for the CCRA Evidence Report will be based on a literature review, supplemented by a small number of research projects. The method document is a live document and can be found here The method for the Evidence Report is designed to allow the following analysis: Assessment of risks in the light of improved methods of assessment and new Page 3

4 knowledge since 2012, when the first CCRA was published. How climate change interacts with other socio-economic factors to affect the level of risk or opportunity. Part of the analysis should try to assess how important climate is as a driver of change compared to other drivers. Inclusion of the effects of current and planned policies and other action in the overall assessment of risk. How climate change overseas could impact on the UK. What the net effect of different risks acting together could be, either due to concurrent timing, acting on the same location or the same receptor (coincidence). An assessment of the magnitude of impact and the urgency of action needed for different threats and opportunities. An assessment of the uncertainties, limitations and confidence in the underlying evidence and analysis for different risks. Are you doing any new research for the Evidence Report? To support the literature review, the ASC with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council and Defra is undertaking four research projects to support the assessment. These projects will update national projections of flood risk and water availability, undertake a more detailed assessment of risks/opportunities from climate change to water quality, wildlife and soil carbon; and investigate extreme high-end scenarios for several types of extreme weather events, which are useful for sensitivity testing adaptation strategies against. Will all risks be monetised? No. Monetisation will not be possible across all risks/opportunities due to the type of impacts involved and the paucity of available data. When and how are stakeholders being consulted? Stakeholders are being consulted in three ways: Through a call for evidence. The ASC published its call in April 2014, and is accepting any new evidence up to March By invitation to ASC-led events. The first of these was held in October 2014, and a second is planned for September Particular organisations will be invited to review specific sections of the report in September How can I influence or feed into the CCRA2 Evidence Report? You can send any evidence you think should be considered to ccra@theccc.gsi.gov.uk. Evidence sources need to be publicly available on request, and you should state in your how the documents have been independently reviewed. Page 4

5 How can I keep up to date with developments with the CCRA Evidence Report? The ASC will be publishing updates on its website, the link is: You can also sign up to the CCRA2 Evidence Report newsletter. ccra@theccc.gsi.gov.uk if you would like to subscribe. How will the second round of Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) reports contribute to the CCRA2 Evidence Report? ARP2 reports received by Defra will be provided to the ASC as they come in, where consent has been given by the reporting organisation. The ASC will in turn make these available to each of the chapter groups. In summer 2014, the ASC wrote to each of the Reporting Authorities with advice on what kinds of information would be helpful to feed into the Evidence Report. Should I wait for the results of the CCRA rather than do my own assessment? No, the Evidence Report will look at broad issues, at a UK, devolved administration, and to some extent regional basis. The results will primarily be of use to central government and its public bodies, to inform national policy. While the framework might be helpful to inform your thinking on ways to assess your own risks, the Evidence Report will not provide detailed assessments for local areas or individual organisations. Page 5

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