The economics of Media and content industry (MCI) Approaches, case study, economic effect of the digital transition 30 31, 2011
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1 The economics of Media and content industry (MCI) Approaches, case study, economic effect of the digital transition 1st MCI workshop, IPTS Sevilla, May 30 31, 2011
2 Case study: from books to e books Session Moving toward e services Françoise Benhamou, University Paris XIII and CRG, Ecole polytechnique
3 Introduction Definition A text that broke free from its own support? Dedicated or semi dedicated material, or trivialized material A book without a full strop From «homothetic» books to enriched books Towards e contents? 3
4 Introduction (2) Paradox: still a minor market, considered (by publishers) as a byproduct rather than a newborn, yet In strong growth at the core of the worries of all actors in the book network disrupting the whole book ecosystem paving the way for new actors from non cultural sectors producers of materials and software (Apple) IT intermediaries (Google) telecommunications (France Télécom) e commerce (Amazon)
5 Plan Reminder: the theoretical framework of digital goods analysis Some data about the book market The demand Which support content relationship? The uncertainty as to the nature and variety of potential uses Which business models? The structuring role of digital technologies for the book industry Models of supply and price Rethinking regulation: A demand for regulation, with the five pillars of book policy being questioned and reassessed 5
6 1. The theoretical framework of digital goods analysis Network externalities, technology adoption and economies of scale. Increasing returns to scale (Shapiro, Varian 1999) Users creating value. High fixed cost, very low or null unit cost Platform economies. Double sided markets and cross subsidies. Industrial readings (cf. Giffard): reading is a commodity that can be sold to economic agents Problem of financing production. Revealing of preferences and price discrimination 6
7 2. Some elements on the French book market Year Publishers turnover (million Euros) Number of new titles published Number of copies sold (millions) , , , nd 464,5 7
8 2. Some elements on the French book market Bestsellers weight, 2009 % of turnover Top five bestsellers 1.7 Top ten bestsellers 2.7 Top 1,000 bestsellers 22.0 Top 10,000 bestsellers 50.4 NB: There are 619,800 titles available in French (Source: ELECTRE) Source: GFK. 8
9 3. Demand Extrapolation from first users behavior: uncertain because average late practices are not that of innovation loving consumers Economics of experience (bouquet of services) and economics of attention Attempt at attracting attention: scarcity moves towards users Leverage effect of press reading? Variety of readings: Nomad (from one kind of content to another) and nonchalant (brief attention) consultation, split by new developments predatory A variety of potential uses opens the way for a plurality of supply and price policies. 9
10 4. The structuring role of digital technologies for the book industry Supply segments are unequally affected but the whole market is transformed. 10
11 Physical/Paper book Digital book
12 Two possible scenarios for materials Appropriation of a technological rent by big downstream actors. Technological and commercial lock up (Apple, Amazon) v/ interoperability (Google) How to adapt contents to digital format? a continuum between traditional publishers and pure players initiatives Case study: Japanese mangas 22% market share in physical books, 65% in digital books Digital market essentially for mobile supports A shift of contents (sentimental, adults ) 12
13 Concentration among publishers A polarization between community logics and industrial concentration For traditional publishers: Important cashflow required for partly blind investments Critical mass problems (supply) Critical size problems (negotiation). Hachette case among retailers Loss of a little market share threats the survival of independent bookshop Even big retailers have to cope with e book market Cf. Borders bankruptcy 13
14 3. From paper to digital. Costs evolution Décomposition du prix d un livre papier (source SNE) Détaillant 36% Diffuseur 7% TVA 5,5% Auteur 11% Distributeur 11% Editeur 14% Fabricant 16% TVA Auteur Editeur Fabricant Distributeur Diffuseur Détaillant 14
15 Uncertainty as to the differential of costs and a fortiori to the differential of price between paper and digital Fading costs Unchanged costs Moving costs Additional costs Printing Creation Newly thought prescriptions (blogs, communities ) Programming Physical transportation Publishing Distribution (new tools) Files conversion Pulping Stocking and securing files 15
16 4. Business models Vertical integration and locking up strategies o Amazon: sale of novelties at loss, prices imposed by the retailer, at first 50/50, revision of the model: contract of agency o v/ Apple: share 30 (Apple)/70 (beneficiary), but can book selling be reduced to a simple «application»? o Google ebooks strategy. A logic of double sided markets Pure players strategies oniche markets and community markets ofavorable negotiations with authors (Publie.net: 30% author) 16
17 4. Business models (cont.) Unstable price policies No visibility of actual practices (impossibility to extrapolate from observed practices) Uncertainty on the consent to pay Period of trial and error 17
18 The three supply models The model of the economics of free access Contents used as a springboard towards paying access like mirror or service. Ex: leroutard.com : financed by advertisement The mirror model: Pay at downloading, durability of access. Unit price setting, with variable reduction from paper price. The service model The consumer buys a service associated to editorial content rather than a book 18
19 Commercial models Buying models buy per unit subscription split sales: per chapter, per page renting v/ perennial buy buy of a right to limited number of downloads pay per view bouquet sales, etc. How much price difference with paper books? Perpetual price? Paperback vs. hardcover books 19
20 Remuneration of authors Transaction costs for retro conversion of catalogues Research of authors, collective works Orphan works Uncertainty on royalties (percentage and final amount) Slipping contracts (duration of cessions of rights, Rendez vous clause, %) Piracy costs Lessons of the music industry Costs induced by fight against piracy DRM charged in % of turnover Watermarking 20
21 5. Regulation 5 reconsidered pillars: libraries, copyrights, VAT rate, law, subsidies VAT: economics of goods or services? The necessary double harmonization i. For all e contents ii. Within cultural industries The law (Fixed Price Maintenance) Changing arguments i. The question of cultural diversity in a digital universe. The long tail ii. From bookshop defense to publisher defense Law without states. The US case R&D question (especially education) 21
22 Conclusion Double movement: Inside the book market: Digital technologies are reinforcing the segmentation of the book market Relation between the bookmarket and other cultural goods markets: Digital technologies are also bridging the gap between the book market and other cultural markets Advocating block by block regulation: towards a renewal of argumentation 22
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