Rethinking currency hedging Currency hedging as a strategic necessity Summary* J. Benetti, Th. Häfliger, Ph. Valta

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1 Rethinking currency hedging Currency hedging as a strategic necessity Summary* J. Benetti, Th. Häfliger, Ph. Valta PICTET STRATEGIC ADVISORY GROUP JUNE 2004

2 Foreign currency investments play an inherent role in modern asset management. However, such investments inevitably entail a degree of currency risk. Investors must therefore ask themselves whether this is a risk worth taking and whether they are adequately compensated for taking this risk. The answer to this question will not only influence the foreign currency investments themselves but also determine the strategic asset allocation which is the key performance driver for the future. 1 The significance of currency risk The importance of currency risk can be seen on the basis of money market investments (see chart). Since 1972, when the system of fixed exchange rates was abolished, foreign money market instruments entail substantially higher risk than their domestic counterparts for all international investors. However, this increased risk has not necessarily been offset by higher returns for investors. RISK AND RETURNS ON MONEY MARKET INSTRUMENTS Volatility in % Risk of domestic investment (L.H.S) Risk of diversified FX portfolio (L.H.S) Outperformance FX portfolio (R.H.S) Outperformance in % Swiss German British American Japanese -1 Currency risk is dominant The currency risk is typically responsible for the major portion of the overall volatility of international investments. Currency risk a bad risk Empirical studies and practical experience show that investing in foreign currencies is a zero-sum game. This means that, on average, the higher risk is not offset by higher returns (since they average to zero). In this respect, the currency risk incurred should be classed as a bad risk. Currency risk should be avoided As the currency risk is not, on average, offset by higher returns, it represents a bad risk and should, in principle, be avoided. Currency hedging and diversification The impact of currency risk differs between equities and bonds. The following chart indicates the average risk incurred by major investors for domestic and foreign investments (with and without currency hedging). * The results of this paper are based on the study "Rethinking currency hedging - Currency hedging as a strategic necessity/evidence from the 20th century".

3 . 2 RISK OF BONDS AND EQUITIES Domestic FX FX (hedged) Bonds Volatility in % Domestic FX Equities FX (hedged) Volatility in % for bonds and for equities The chart shows that foreign currency bonds are exposed to far greater currency risk than domestic bonds. However, we also see that currency hedging can significantly reduce the risk associated with a foreign currency portfolio to such an extent that it falls even lower than the average risk for domestic bonds. Based on our findings for equities, we can see that the foreign portfolio is less exposed than domestic equities and that currency hedging further reduces the portfolio's risk. Summary Currency hedging reduces the risk The risk can be substantially reduced in both asset classes through currency hedging. Currency hedging: Substitution of domestic investments? Hedged, internationally diversified portfolios present a smaller risk than domestic investments for both equities and bonds. Such portfolios can therefore be regarded as a substitute for domestic investments. Currency hedging: A solution for the home bias? The substitution of domestic investments can serve to circumvent other, hidden risks such as a concentration of exposure to the domestic equity market or the liquidity problem with bonds. Currency hedging a matter of the ratio The hedge ratio for bonds International diversification with currency hedging offers the investor substantial added value. However, the actual currency exposure, especially in the case of equities, is not clear a priori. The question is to what extent should investments optimally be hedged? A clear difference emerges between bonds and equities. The following table shows that foreign currency bonds should have a hedge ratio of at least 75% on average.

4 . DIFFERENT HEDGE RATIOS OF FOREIGN PORTFOLIOS Bonds Equities Hedge ratio (%) Risk (%) Reduction in risk (%) Risk (%) Reduction in risk (%) relative accumulated relative accumulated and for equities Hedging seems to make sense for equities as well, as a rising hedge ratio can help to reduce volatility gradually. The reduction in risk, however, is substantially smaller compared with bonds. The currency risk is specific The portion of currency risk is greater for foreign currency bonds than for equities. In some cases excessive hedging may even increase the risk to which a portfolio is exposed. For instance, it would have been counterproductive for a US investor to fully hedge his foreign portfolio in the period shown. Even a hedge ratio of just 50% here has the effect of increasing overall risk. Currency hedging can be counterproductive The precise hedge ratio is not known ex ante, especially in the case of equities. Any hedging beyond the optimum ratio inevitably raises the level of risk. These findings have serious implications for the strategic asset allocation. Currency hedging an issue of strategic relevance Currency risk should not be ignored. As currency hedging has implications for the risk profile of all asset classes, the entire investment strategy has to be reviewed. This concerns not only direct hedging but also other important determinants of the strategic asset allocation, such as the equities quota, the proportion of domestic / foreign securities, the redefinition of alternative asset classes, etc. Currency hedging as a strategic necessity Currency hedging must be considered at a strategic level; it affects the entire definition of the strategic asset allocation. Currency hedging: Implications for the strategic asset allocation The risk reduction achieved through currency hedging can be offset by a different, good risk. An investor could thus consider alternatives such as a higher equities proportion, a more explicitly active asset management approach, or non-traditional asset classes.

5 . 4 Currency overlay management IMPLEMENTING CURRENCY HEDGING Two solutions are available: a currency hedging strategy can be implemented either within the framework of a mandate or using a central overlay management. With a currency overlay management structure, currencies are viewed as a separate element managed across different asset classes and asset managers. This necessitates consolidated administration and transaction processing as well as consolidated monitoring, risk management and reporting. The schematic view below shows a simplified organisational structure with a currency hedging strategy in place. POSSIBLE ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE Board of Directors Owners Internal admin. / Family Office External advisers / reporting, etc. Global Custody External investments Currency Overlay Management Manager 1 Equities Manager 2 Bonds Manager 1 Hedge Funds... Manager X Private Equity Advantages of overlay management Administrative aspects The advantages of a centralised overlay management are: consistent currency management across the entire portfolio high flexibility effective controlling lower transaction costs (higher volumes and specialisation) At the administrative level one needs a Global Custodian, suitable reporting to measure and analyse the investment outcome (performance contribution and attribution), asset management tools, continuous monitoring, controlling, and compliance to identify currency exposures.

6 . CONCLUSION The following table summarizes the results and briefly introduces the conclusions. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH HEDGING SUGGESTED HEDGE RATIO CURRENCY HEDGING 1) (IN %) 5 Domestic bonds no Foreign bonds *** yes Domestic equities * no Foreign equities ** yes Hedge Funds */*** no/yes Private Equities * no/yes Foreign real estate ** no/yes ) Potential of risk reduction through currency hedging = none/* = low/** = medium/*** = high IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSET ALLOCATION Reduction in favour of } Domestic bonds Foreign bonds Increase to the debit of Foreign bonds Domestic bonds Reduction of bonds in favour of alternative asset classes (low correlation) equities and alternative asset classes (substitution of bad with good risk) Domestic equities Foreign equities Reduction in favour of Foreign equities Increase to the debit of Domestic equities } On the one hand an increase of equities to the debit of bonds and on the other hand a reduction of equities in favour of alternative asset classes Hedge Funds Currency hedging possible (depending on investment style) and increase in Hedge Funds to the debit of a) equities (higher risk premium) b) bonds (lower correlation) Private Equities Foreign real estate Currency hedging possible (depending on investment horizon) and increase in Private Equities to the debit of equities Currency hedging possible (depending on investment horizon) and increase in foreign real estate to the debit of equities

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