Alarko Holding. Equity / Mid Cap. / Construction OUTPERFORM. Bloomberg: ALARK TI Reuters: ALARK IS

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1 Equity / Mid Cap. / Construction Alarko Holding Bloomberg: ALARK TI Reuters: ALARK IS Recent additions to the backlog bring upside Outperform recommendation maintained. We did go over our estimates for Alarko Holding following the release of 1Q12 results. The major revision came from the contracting segment as we have added the recently signed contracts to the backlog. Our 12-mth target price increased by 9% to TL5 per share offering a hefty 24% upside potential to the current price. Alarko remains one of the strongest companies in the holding universe thanks to its cash rich position on both consolidated and solo financials. The company holds a solo net cash of US$101mn as of 1Q12; corresponding to ca.20% of the current Mcap. The long f-x position at holding level provides a robust hedge against fluctuations in f/x rates as well. Additions to the backlog are promising. Alarko Holding s contracting arm Alsim has been awarded US$268mn of new contracts since the beginning of 2012, carrying the total backlog close to US$1.15bn level. We have revised our valuation for Alsim parallel to the changes in the backlog together with the updated peer group multiples and net cash position. Accordingly, our target equity value for Alsim increased to US$227mn from the previous US$179mn. Electricity segment is the best performing segment as of 1Q12. The contribution of the energy segment to the consolidated EBITDA was eye-catching (reaching TL8.7mn in 1Q12 from negative TL6.8mn in 1Q11), which more than offset the decline in the profitability of the contracting segment. The improvement in energy segment s EBITDA mainly comes from Meram electricity distribution region. We expect energy segment to capture 68% share in FY12 EBITDA compared to 67% in FY2011. Price / Relative Price Stock Data TRY US$ Price at Month Target Price Mcap (mn) Float Mcap (mn) No. of Shares Outstanding 223 mn Free Float (%) Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) Market Data TRY ISE ,099 US$ Spot Rate US$ 12-Month Forw ard Price Performance (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn TRY US$ Relative to ISE TL ALARK Company Report OUTPERFORM Upside Potential* 24% Relative Relative to ISE Trades at a deep discount to its current NAV. Although Alarko Holding shares outperformed the ISE 100 by 18% during the past three months, the holding still trades at a 41.5% discount to its target NAV, which is substantially higher than the company s historical average of 31%. The possible additions of new construction projects to the backlog are potential positive triggers for the stock, while a possible political conflict in Kazakhstan or deterioration of profit margins in energy business due to the increase in natural gas costs and low demand are the main risks to our call. Price / Relative Price 52 Week Range (Close TRY) Basak Dinckoc Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report. 1

2 Income Statement (TL mn) 2009A* 2010A* 2011A* 2012E 2013E Revenues 895 1,206 1,323 1,742 1,797 EBITDA Depreciation & Amortisation EBIT 47 (6) Other income (expense), net Financial expenses, net (118) Minority Interests Income before tax Taxation on Income (31) (17) (36) (36) (41) Net income Cash Flow Statement (TL mn) Net Income Depreciation & Amortisation Indemnity Provisions 9 (2) (1) 0 0 Change in Working Capital 122 (126) Cash Flow from Operations Capital Expenditure Free Cash Flow Rights Issue Dividends Paid Other Cash Inflow (Outflow ) (7) Change in net cash Net Cash Balance Sheet (TL mn) Tangible Fixed Assets Other Long Term Assets Intangibles Goodw ill Long-term financial assets Inventories Trade receivables Cash & equivalents Other current assets Total assets 1,751 1,779 2,069 2,226 2,227 Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities Short-term debt Trade payables Total Debt Other short-term liabilities Total liabilities ,025 1, Minority Interest Total equity ,067 1,234 Paid-in capital Total liabilities & equity 1,751 1,779 2,069 2,226 2,227 Ratios ROE (%) ROIC (%) Invested Capital ,144 1,023 1,049 Net debt/ebitda (x) Net debt/equity (%) Capex/Sales (%) Capex/Depreciation (x) EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Margin Valuation Metrics EV/Sales (x) 0.8x 0.6x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0x 27.1x 2.4x 2.5x 2.3x EV/IC (x) 0.9x 0.7x 0.3x 0.6x 0.6x P/E (x) 12.6x 18.6x 6.5x 6.2x 5.2x FCF yield (%) 4% 2% 12% 17% Dividend yield (%) 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% *based on average Mcap during the year 2

3 Contracting segment backlog normalized. Alarko Holding s wholly owned subsidiary operating in the contracting segment; Alsim, has signed an agreement regarding a new construction project abroad in Sep-11, totaling US$475mn. The project was awarded by the Kazakhmys Bozshakol LLP (a Kazakh-German partnership) for copper mine exploration in a specified region. This has been a turnaround because following the addition of this project, Alsim doubled its backlog from US$450mn to US$870mn. Alarko s contracting segment has not come close to US$1.0bn for more than 2 years. We also raised our target Mcap for Alsim from US$130mn to US$179mn based on peer group multiples with a conservative EBITDA margin assumption of 6% for the next 2 years, which is distinctly lower than company s last 2 year s average of 8%. New additions to the backlog continued in 1H12. Alsim has signed contracts for four different projects during the past three months, three of which are located in Kazakhstan, totaling US$214mn, while the remaining is a railway connection work in Morocco at US$154mn. Accordingly, Alsim s total projects under execution reached US$2.2bn and the backlog touched US$1.15bn level as of end May, Note that the share of projects in Turkey fell to 22%, as projects abroad now accounts for 78% of the total order book. We have revised our valuation for Alsim parallel to the changes in the backlog together with the updated peer group multiples and net cash position. Our target equity value for the Company increased to US$227mn from the previous US$179mn. Alarko Holding s Latest Backlog ALARKO'S COMPLET CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ON HAND (US$ mn) VOLUME PORTION (%) ION (%) PERIOD BACKLOG IN TURKEY US$ mn Taksim - Yenikapi Subw ay Levent - Ayazaga Subw ay Ankara Subw ay Karakuz Hydroelectric Pow er Plant Subtotal ABROAD Boryspil Airport (Ukraine) Taldykol Sew er Pond 1st stage (Kazakhstan) Copper Ore Plant Project (Kazakhstan) Taldykol Sew er Pond 2nd stage (Kazakhstan) Taldykol Sew er Pond 3rd stage (Kazakhstan) Tanger-Kenitra Railw ay Connection (Morocco) Aktau-Manasha Highw ay Rehab. Lot1&2&3 (Kazakhstan) Aktau-Manasha Highw ay Rehab. Lot1&2&3 (Kazakhstan) Source: Alarko Holding s Investor Presentation - May 2012 Aktau-Manasha Highw ay Rehab. Lot1&2&3 (Kazakhstan) Subtotal Total Projects under Execution Alarko's Portion Source: Company Information 3

4 Upcoming tenders offer a decent potential. Alarko Holding is following several contracting opportunities in Turkey and abroad listed on the table as below. While the size and Alarko s stake in some of these tenders are not disclosed yet like the railroad construction project in India, the total volume of the follow up projects easily exceeds US$2bn level. We did not assign any probability to those projects and did not calculate any additional value. However, we strongly believe that Alsim may easily add US$ mn to the existing backlog per annum in the upcoming 3-4 years considering the distribution of the current backlog and the follow up projects. Alarko Holding s Upcoming Projects POTENTIAL PROJECTS VOLUME (est.) ALARKO'S PORTION (%) IN TURKEY & ABROAD US$ mn Bozshakol Copper Plant Extension (Kazakhstan) Mikheevski Copper Plant (Russia) Kabatas-Mahmutbey Subw ay BOT project (Turkey) n.a. Taldykol Treatment Plant (Kazakhstan) Astana Water Treatment Plant (Kazakhstan) Bhaupur-Khurya Railroad (India) n.a. 60 Privatisation of Tollroads & Bridges (Turkey) n.a. Aktogay Copper Plant (Kazakhstan) Talimarjan Pow er Plant (Uzbekistan)* Hachef&Marhar Viaducts (Morocco)** * subcontractor to Abener/Spain ** linked to Tanger-Kenitra Railw ay project Source: Company Information Toll Roads Privatization is still on the agenda. Alarko Holding has established a consortium with 6 prominent local conglomerates including Fiba, Nurol and MV Holding to offer a bid for the privatization of Toll Roads and Bridges whose initial deadline was February 16th, 2012 to submit the bids with a total concession fee expectation of US$5bn-6bn. The tender is postponed to August 9, 2012 and the composition of the consortium may change ahead of that date. Alarko Holding s concentration on profitability in tenders rather that the scale gives us a hint that Alarko Holding s consortium will not be aggressive in the tender; considering harsh competition in recent privatization deals and strong opponents for this deal such as Akfen Holding-Dogus Insaat- Makyol Insaat-Autostrade, Koc Holding Yildiz Holding Malaysian Khazanah and Limak French Vinci. Please note that the share of motorways in passenger and merchandise transportation is 95% in Turkey; significantly higher than the EU average of 80% and the US average of 90%. The strong and sustainable growth in the market can be verified by the historical trend of number of passages, which has been rapidly increasing at a CAGR of 6.4% between Moreover, compared to EU countries, Turkey has a lower per capita car ownership, promising future growth potential for the highway traffic. Average number of vehicles (PC+LCV) for 1,000 people was 138 in 2007, much lower compared to the EU average of 529. Turkey needs to enter at least 16 million more vehicles into Turkish motorways to attain the current vehicle ownership levels of Bulgaria (lowest penetrated country after Turkey in EU). Per Capita Vehicle Ownership (PC+LCV) Turkey Bulgaria Poland Greece EU average France UK Germany Italy USA

5 Alarko Carrier (ALCAR TI) share price corrected parallel to the decline in profit margins; yet still trades at premium. Thanks to the revival in bottom-line in FY11 Alarko Carrier shares outperformed the ISE-100 by 155% from the beginning of 2011 until the announcement of 1Q12 financials, which pointed to a decline in profit margins. Although the shares had a negative reaction to the 1Q12 results as shown in the chart as below, they still trade at 6% premium to our target valuation based on average EV/EBITDA multiples implied by peer group companies. ALCAR: Net Sales and EBITDA Margins TL mn Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Net Sales EBITDA Margin Source: Company Financials 60,0 TL 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 ALCAR Relative Relative to ISE 100 0,

6 Energy has the highest contribution to overall profitability. The Holding is currently active in electricity distribution segment with Alcen, which owns the operating rights of Meram Electricity distribution region until Alarko has 50% stake in Alcen, whereas the remaining 50% belongs to Cengiz Insaat. Meram distribution region has c.a. 1.6mn customers and sells 6.1 GWh of electricity per annum with an loss theft ratio of 8%. Alarko Holding s distribution segment recorded US$331mn revenues in 2011, down from US$354mn a year ago, while the net income jumped to US$26mn from US$2.4mn net loss a year ago. The Holding also has operations in electricity generation under Altek. There are currently one BOT type hydroelectric plant (Malatya Tohma, 40MW) and one natural gas fired power plant (Kirklareli,164MW) under the generation portfolio. The generation portfolio had produced 846 mn kwh of electricity in 2011, which we expect to tap 0.94 bn kwh in Alarko Holding also started the investment for a 76MW hydroelectric power plant in Adana, Karakuz, which will be completed towards the end of 2014 following a US$96mn investment. The Holding also has plans to build a 72MW hydro power plant and 1,320MW coal fired power plant (under 50%-50% partnership with Cengiz Insaat) in the coming years, which we do not include into our valuation yet. Trading at a discount to peer group multiples. Although Alarko Holding shares outperformed the ISE 100 by 19% during the past three months, the holding still trades at 41.5% discount to its target NAV, which is substantially higher than the company s historical average of 31%. The company also trades at a significant discount compared to the peer group conglomerates' multiples shown on the table as below. The possible additions of new construction projects to the backlog are potential positive triggers for the stock, while a possible political conflict in Kazakhstan or deterioration of profit margins in energy business owing to the rising natural gas costs or declining electricity prices and demand are the main risks to our call. Peer Multiple Comparison Conglomerates/ Contracting P/E P/BV Ticker 2011A 2012E 2013E 2012E ALARK TI Equity 6,5 6,2 5,2 0,8 ENKAI TI Equity 14,1 15,4 15,6 1,3 TKFEN TI Equity 9,0 9,3 7,4 1,0 Mean 11,6 12,4 11,5 1,2 6

7 Energy and contracting assets dominate the NAV. Energy segment has the highest contribution to the target NAV of Alarko Holding with 43% share (Alcen and Altek together), which is followed by Alsim with 31%. We apply 25% holding discount on the target NAV while reaching the target market capitalization of US$623mn for Alarko Holding. NAV Breakdown (US$ mn) Company Business Segment Alarko's Stake (%) Current Value Current NAV Valuation Method Target Value Target NAV Alsim Contracting 100, Peer Multiple Comparison Alarko Carrier Industry & Trade 43, Current Mcap / Multiple Comparison Alarko REIT Land Development 51, Current Mcap / Current NAV* Attas Tourism 100, Multiple Comparison Altek Electricity - Generation 100, DCF Alcen Electricity - Distribution 49, DCF Alfarm Food 50, Global Peer Group Multiples 12 6 Others 3 3 Book Value 3 3 Net Cash (debt) 101 Net Cash (debt) 101 Current NAV 823 Target NAV 830 Current Mcap 486 Target Mcap ** 623 % Prem / (Disc) to Current NAV (41,0) % Prem / (Disc) to Target NAV (41,5) all figures are in US$mn terms * after applying 30% REIT discount ** after applying 25% conglomerate discount Alarko Holding s historical premium / (discount) to its target NAV 20% Alarko Holding Premium / (Discount) to Target NAV 10% 0% % -20% -30% -40% Historical Average -50% -60% -70% -80% 7

8 Appendix: ALARK 1Q12 Earnings Review ALARK posted TL11.2mn of net earnings in 1Q12, down from TL12.4mn in 1Q11 Alarko Holding posted TL11.2mn of consolidated net earnings in 1Q12, down from TL12.4mn in the same period a year ago. Despite the YoY improvement in operating profitability (1Q12 EBITDA rose by 29% YoY to TL9mn), the decline in the bottomline came from the weakening financial income owing to the holding s long FX position and relatively stronger TL in 1Q12. On a segmental basis, the contribution of the energy segment to the consolidated EBITDA is eye-catching (reaching TL8.7mn in 1Q12 from negative TL6.8mn in 1Q11), which more than offset the decline in the profitability of the contracting segment. The improvement in energy segment s EBITDA mainly comes from Meram electricity distribution region. Although declining margins and profitability in the contracting segment has a negative impact on 1Q12 financials, the recent additions to the backlog will help the conglomerate to go back to previous years margins in that segment starting from 2Q12. First quarter results are generally not indicative for the whole year as it is the lowest season for many industries. Thus the contribution of tourism, industry and trade and seafood segments to the overall operating profitability remained weak. Alarko Holding carries a long FX position of TL123mn as of 1Q12, mainly dominated in Euro and JPY. Unlike other companies with heavy debt positions, strong TL against other currencies in 1Q12 had a pernicious impact on the conglomerate s financial income as it had to book FX losses. Therefore, despite the 29% YoY improvement in 1Q12 EBITDA, the bottomline fell short of last year s figure declining to TL11.2mn. ALARK (TLmn) 1Q12 1Q11 YoY 4Q11 QoQ Revenues 292,9 241,2 21,4% 388,5-24,6% Gross Margin 15,8% 17,9% 18,7% Operating Profit 0,2-2,2 n.m 23,8-99,2% Operating Margin 0,1% -0,9% 6,1% EBITDA 9,1 7,0 29,1% 34,9-74,0% EBITDA Margin 3,1% 2,9% 9,0% Financial Expenses (net) 8,9 7,9 12,6% -9,2 n.m. Net Profit 11,2 12,4-9,2% 12,5 n.m. Net Margin 3,8% 5,1% 3,2% Segmental Tourism Industry & Trade Energy Contracting & Land D. Seafood Breakdow n (TLmn) 1Q12 1Q11 YoY 1Q12 1Q11 YoY 1Q12 1Q11 YoY 1Q12 1Q11 YoY 1Q12 1Q11 YoY Revenues 7,5 6,8 10,6% 30,2 28,8 4,9% 191,1 137,0 39,5% 56,8 62,7-9,5% 6,9 5,4 27,2% Gross Profit -0,3-0,1 n.a. 7,1 7,2-2,3% 31,3 18,0 73,7% 10,8 18,6-42,1% 0,9 0,6 44,8% Gross Margin -4% -1% -2,9pp 23% 25% -1,7pp 16% 13% 3,2pp 19% 30% -10,7pp 13% 12% 1,6pp Operating Profit -6,8-5,6 n.a. 0,9 1,9-53,2% 3,4-11,7 n.a. 3,1 13,2-76,2% 0,5 0,3 61,0% Operating Margin -91% -83% -7,5pp 3% 6% -3,6pp 2% -9% 10,3pp 6% 21% -15,5pp 7% 6% 1,5pp EBITDA -5,5-4,4 n.a. 1,3 2,3-43,4% 8,7-6,8 n.a. 4,9 15,7-68,7% 0,5 0,3 54,1% EBITDA Margin -74% -65% -8,3pp 4% 8% -3,7pp 5% -5% 9,5pp 9% 25% -16,4pp 8% 6% 1,3pp Net Profit -4,8-4,1 n.a. 1,8 2,0-11,2% 91,7 7,6 n.a. -13,1 8,5 n.a. 0,4 0,2 69,6% Net Margin -64% -61% -3,3pp 6% 7% -1,1pp 48% 6% 42,5pp -23% 14% -36,6pp 6% 4% 1,5pp 8

9 This report has been prepared by İş Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş. (İş Investment) solely for the information of clients of İş Investment. Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies, investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and with the assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary. The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital Market Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT); various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. All information in these pages remains the property of İş Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in any way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written permission of İş Investment. ( This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. 9

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