VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY MARKET

Transcription

1 VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY MARKET Duong Thuy Dung, Associate Director October 14, 2014

2 CONTENT 1. Regional Hotel Peformance 2. Vietnam Hotel Peformance 3. A glimpse on Phu Quoc 4. Hospitality Investment 2 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

3 Viet Nam Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Tourist arrivals ('000) REGIONAL HOTEL PERFORMANCE Vietnam has one of the smallest number of international visitor per year in the region Tourist Arrivals by Year 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Source: Association of Southeast Asian Nations. 3 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

4 REGIONAL HOTEL PERFORMANCE Occupancy level also lowest compared to other cities Occupancy Rate (%) 4-5 star 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Hanoi HCMC Kuala Lumpur Bangkok Jakarta Source: STR Data. 4 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

5 US$/room/night REGIONAL HOTEL PERFORMANCE but ADRs have demonstrated a fair growth Average Daily Rate 4-5 star Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Source: STR Data. Hanoi HCMC Kuala Lumpur Bangkok Jakarta 5 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

6 US$/room/night REGIONAL HOTEL PERFORMANCE ensuring RevPAR levels remain above that of many regional competitors Revenue per Available Room 4-5 star Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Hanoi HCMC Kuala Lumpur Bangkok Jakarta Jun-14 Source: STR Data. 6 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

7 VIETNAM HOTEL PERFORMANCE

8 M 2014 Arrivals (Million persons) Growth Rate (%) INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS International visitor arrivals to Vietnam have grown rapidly over the past few years, but will have problems reaching the VNAT target (8 mil in2014) International Tourist Arrivals 8 50% 6 30% 4 10% 2-10% - -30% International arrivals Growth rate Source: Vietnamese Government Statistical Office, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

9 China Korea Japan USA Taiwan No. of tourists ('000) % growth y-o-y INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS STRUCTURE China accounts for the largest proportion International Tourist by Top 5 Countries, 9M ,000 1,600 20% 16% 1, % 8% 4% 0% No. of tourists % growth y-o-y Source: Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

10 International Tourist Arrivals ('000) INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS STRUCTURE Vacation tourists dominate the market International Tourist by Purpose, 9M ,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, M 2014 Leisure Business/MICE Others Source: Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

11 VIETNAM HOTEL PERFORMANCE Total Supply by Hotel rooms (3-5 star) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Nha Trang Phu Quoc Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

12 Occupancy rate VIETNAM HOTEL PERFORMANCE Recovery on the way Occupancy Rate (5 star) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Q Q Q Q Q HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Nha Trang Phu Quoc Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

13 ADR (US$/room/night) VIETNAM HOTEL PERFORMANCE Da Nang and Phu Quoc are leading the ADR growth Average Daily Rate (5 star) Q Q Q Q Q HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Nha Trang Phu Quoc Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

14 RevPar (US$/room/night) VIETNAM HOTEL PERFORMANCE Phu Quoc in a different class Revenue per Available Room (5 star) Q Q Q Q Q HCMC Hanoi Da Nang Nha Trang Phu Quoc Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

15 A GLIMPSE ON PHU QUOC

16 PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET Opportunities Phu Quoc has huge potential to develop into a favoured beach escape eco With 150 km Potential for eco-tourism and eco-resort development coastal length 99 scenic mountains 62% forest area ss s Investors: A few number of top-tier hotels/resorts and no existing second home villa creates a good opportunity for the hospitality investors Hotel operators: lack of big brand names also creates a good opportunity for international operators Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

17 PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET Concerns Infrastructure: Poor infrastructure, low progress on road upgrading Facilities and amenities : Lack of international hospitals, supermarkets or retail chains, nightlife, bars and clubs Master plan: Too many projects under planning while local government keeps changing the island s master plan Labour force: Lack of skilled workforce s Development cost: High cost of construction and operation Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

18 PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET New airport raises seat capacity by 60% Old airport 100 Flights per week 90 max pax per flight 450,000 max pax per year New airport 115 Flights per week (current capacity) 187 max pax per flight (current capacity) 760,000 max pax per year (current capacity) 2,700,000 max pax per year (expected capacity in 2020) Source: Centre for Aviation (CAPA), Q Only domestic airlines area operating in Phu Quoc International Airport (Vietnam Airline, Vietjet Air and Jetstar Pacific) New flights open soon: Phu Quoc - Singapore: 2 flights/week starting on November 2, 2014 (Airbus 321) Phu Quoc Siem Reap: 3 flights/week starting December 18, 2014 (ATR-72) 18 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

19 PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET Existing supply Limited & Small Scale Accommodation Location of Top-tier Hotels in Phu Quoc 100 establishments offering approximately 2,900 rooms Only 15 (with 952 rooms in total) are classified as 3-5 hotels All top-tier hotels in Phu Quoc are on the west side of the island 19 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

20 PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET Operating Cost 6-8% TOTAL REVENUE ENERGY COST 12-15% TOTAL REVENUE 20-25% TOTAL REVENUE F&B COST 30-35% TOTAL REVENUE 50-60% ENERGY COST DROPS WITH POWER CONNECTED TO NATIONAL GRIDLINE Expected lower ADR => Phu Quoc become more attractive destination Increasing operating revenue as energy cost is expected to reduce significantly 4-STAR HOTELS IN MAINLAND 4-STAR HOTELS IN PHU QUOC 4-STAR HOTELS IN MAINLAND 4-STAR HOTELS IN PHU QUOC Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

21 RevPAR (US$/room/night) PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET Market Leader in Vietnam RevPAR of Top Hotels in Selected Coastal Provinces Phu Quoc HCMC Nha Trang Phan Thiet Da Nang Hanoi Vung Tau Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q Top-tier hotels in Phu Quoc are among the best performers Small-scale hotels (from 17 to 43 keys) can achieve occupancy rates from 80% upward Luxury four-star and three-star categories obtained average occupancy rates of above 80%, standard four-star hotels obtained average occupancy rates of around 60%. Bungalow-style resorts achieve higher occupancy rates than block hotels as most of traveller are holidaymakers and like to stay in a nature-oriented accommodation 21 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

22 PHU QUOC HOSPITALITY MARKET Future supply Big Names Lining Up Salinda Premium Resort and Spa open for booking now VINPEARL PHU QUOC SUNSET SANATO NOVOTEL PHU QUOC RESORT BY CEO GROUP INTERCONTINENTAL BY BIM GROUP Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

23 HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT

24 HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT Big investments are seeping into hospitality sector Hanoi POSITION Sapa Hanoi Quang Ninh Hai Phong Thanh Hoa INVESTORS / DEVELOPERS Sun Group Thanh Hoa Construction Corp. * Nakheel Sovico Holding COMPONENTS Fansipan cable car Hotel Entertainment complex VALUE $206 mil. 4-star Hotel - Urban- tourism complex $550 mil. VinGroup Resort complex $45 mil. ISC Corporation Tuan Chau VLC FLC Group Casino Recreation complex 200-room hotel/accor 24 serviced apartments 18-hole golf course, Resort complex $7,000 mil. - $257.5 mil. Phu Yen Vung Ro Petroleum Resort complex $2,500 mil Ho Chi Minh City VinGroup 27-hole golf course Resort complex Phu Quoc CEO Group Resort complex 406-room Hotel (Novotel) BIM Group Resort complex 400-room Hotel (Crowne Plaza) Acquired project from Ha Do Group Source: Compiled from various sources, Q $796 mil. $210.7 mil. $70.2 mil 24 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

25 TOTAL VALUE US$1,498 MIL 54 TRANSACTIONS HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT Hotel is the most sought-after property ( ) 11% 26% 2% 6% 20% 35% Hotel Office Development site Apartment Retail Industrial Hotel accounts for 35% transactions and 36% value Office accounts for 20% transactions and 29% value Development sites account 1% for 26% transactions but 7% 6% 21% 29% 36% Hotel Office Development site Apartment Retail Industrial only 6% value Retail accounts for 21% value although only 6% of transactions Proportion is calculated based on transactions made during H2014 Source: RCA, Sep CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

26 US$ Millions HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT Increasing number of hotel transactions since YTD Total Value Number of transactions Source: RCA, Sep 2014 The number of hotel sales in Vietnam has dropped in 2009 as a consequence of lack of liquidity and concern about future performance. In 2009, lower prices, additional liquidity and more stable economic conditions have helped increase the sales volume. 26 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

27 Transaction price per key (US$) HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT Highest transacted price per key recorded in 2013 Transaction price per key (min-max range) 600, , , , , , YTD2014 Source: RCA, Sep 2014 The market experienced the highest transacted price per room in CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

28 HOSPITALITY INVESTMENT Key indicators No. of transactions Hotel Office Retail Apartment Dev Site Size No. of rooms sqm sqm No. of apartments Sqm/ ha Range ,240-31,562 6,880-55, ,994 sqm - 7.8ha Average ,261 33, ,521 sqm (*) Value Range US$5.2-$155.2 mil US$5.1-$67.4 mil US$5.3-$314 mil US$10.7-$43.2 mil US$ mil Average US$31.81 mil US$43.87 mil US$ mil US$20.62 mil USS$12.56 mil Value per unit per room per sqm per sqm per apartment per sqm Range US$38,267-$531,652 US$1,428 - $3,749 US$776-$7,958 US$24,280 - $78,596 US$185-$2,036 Average US$153,352 US$2,514 US$4,367 US$47,422 US$936 Key markets HCMC, Hanoi, Hoi An HCMC, Hanoi HCMC HCMC, Hanoi HCMC, Hanoi Cap Rate N/A 8.5%-13.6% N/A N/A N/A (*) Exclude Alaska Garden of 7.8ha Source: RCA, Sep CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

29 HOSPITALITY TRANSACTIONS YTD2014 MOVEMPICK SAIGON VINPEARL LUXURY SHERATON NHA TRANG LIFE HERITAGE RESORT Location: HCMC Location: HCMC Location: Nha Trang Location: Hoi An Seller: VinaCapital Seller: Vingroup Seller: Vinaland Seller: IBUS Buyer: Tung Shing Buyer: VIPD Group Buyer: n/a Buyer: Minor International Amount: $30.4 mil Amount: $155.2 million Amount: $42 million Amount: $9.6 million LIFE WELLNESS RESORT LOTTE LEGEND HOTEL HANOI DAEWOO HOTEL CENTURY RIVERSIDE HOTEL Location: Quy Nhon Location: HCMC Location: Hanoi Location: Hue Seller: IBUS Seller: Vinaland + Kotobuki Seller: Daewoo Seller: Crowndale International Buyer: Minor International Buyer: Lotte Buyer: Hanel Buyer: Hue People Committeel Amount: $6.4 million Amount: 65.1 Amount: $114.0 million Amount: $5.2 million Source: RCA, retrieved September CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

30 VIETNAM INVESTMENT Domestic Players Dominate both Buyers and Sellers BUYERS SELLERS Thailand Taiwan 4% 2% Singapore 8% Offshore 4% Domestic Hong Kong Japan Korea Netherlands 5% Malaysia 3% Offshore 8% Korea 13% Japan 6% Domestic 63% Malaysia Netherlands Offshore (blank) Singapore Taiwan Thailand Korea 13% Japan 2% Hong Kong 15% Domestic 54% Data recorded during the period of YTD 2014 Source: RCA, Sep 2014 Koreans are active in both selling (Kumho Asiana, Daewoo) and buying (Lotte, CJ, Asiana Airlines). Singaporeans have become active buyers (Keppel, Mapletree, Capitaland, Ascott). Proportion is calculated based on transactions made during H2014 Source: RCA, Sep CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

31 VIETNAM INVESTMENT Continued pockets of interest from overseas investors Significant and varied interest in Vietnam but investors (and agents) frustrated by limited deal opportunities; Demand for deals continues to significantly outstrip supply particularly for operating assets in city centre (HN and HCMC); For the majority of deals the big four questions still remain - Without a realistic and honest approach to these, foreign investors will look elsewhere. VALUATION TRANSPARENCY STRUCTURING TRACK RECORD 31 CBRE VIETNAM S TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY LANDSCAPE

32 At CBRE, we live and breathe the business of real estate Every week NEWSPAPER UPDATES Every month DASHBOARD Every quarter QUARTERLY REPORT For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. Research & Consulting T F research.vietnam@cbre.com 2014 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.