INTRODUCTORY REMARKS. Ruth Crowell LBMA Chief Executive 19 October 2015
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1 DAY 1 VOTING
2 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS Ruth Crowell LBMA Chief Executive 19 October 2015
3 LBMA CONFERENCE (No. conferences) 682 (No. delegates) 290 (Different companies attended by delegates?) 49 (No. speakers)
4 WHAT SECTOR OF THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKET DO YOU REPRESENT? Press to submit your answer Choice Description Response 2015 Response Commercial Banks Traders (excluding banks) Official Sector (incl. central banks, regulators) Miners Refiners Fabricators Investors Security transport carriers or custodians Exchanges Consultants Media Other 9 17 Total 230
5 CONFERENCE LBMA GOLD PRICE FORECASTS Please enter your forecast for 17 th October, 2016 (Allowed range $500 to $2,000) Press to submit your answer Conference Date Latest PM Price Forecast Date Forecast Actual Edinburgh 3-Nov-09 $1, Sep-10 $1,181 $1,298 Berlin 27-Sep-10 $1, Sep-11 $1,450 $1,817 Montreal 19-Sep-11 $1,817 9-Nov-12 $2,074 $1,738 Hong Kong 9-Nov-12 $1, Sep-13 $1,914 $1,341 Rome 01-Oct-13 $1, Nov-14 $1,405 $1,155 Lima 11-Nov-14 $1, Oct-15 $1,200 $1,181 Vienna 19-Oct-15 $1, Oct-16 Today s result was:
6 RATE THE SESSION Session 1 Opening Session 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 0.60% 14.37% 37.13% 47.90%
7 RATE THE SESSION Session 2 Precious Metals Investment Panel 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 1.19% 14.29% 40.48% 44.05%
8 RATE THE SESSION LBMA Update 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 2.05% 18.49% 39.73% 39.73%
9 DO YOU SEE GOLD DEMAND FROM THE OFFICIAL SECTOR INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? 1 Yes 60.78% 2 No 39.22%
10 DOES THE BACKDROP OF DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND CONTINUED QE TO COUNTER IT, CHANGE THE CENTRAL BANKS APPROACH TO GOLD? 1 Yes 2 No 48.08% 51.92%
11 RATE THE SESSION Session 3 Official Sector Session 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 3.85% 19.23% 35.58% 41.35%
12 IF YOU WERE A MINING CEO WOULD YOU BE CONSIDERING HEDGING NOW? 1 Yes 61.29% 2 No 38.71% DATA CAPTURED
13 WHAT LEVEL OF GOLD PRICE COULD MAKE HEDGING ATTRACTIVE? 1 $900 2 $1,000 3 $1,100 4 $1,200 5 $1,300 6 Over $1, % 15.63% 15.63% 17.71% 18.75% 19.79%
14 WHICH REGION IS LIKELY TO HAVE THE MOST ACTIVE HEDGERS, ASSUMING FURTHER US $ CURRENCY APPRECIATION? 1 North America 2 South America 3 Africa 4 Russia 5 Australia 6 China 7. Asia 28.71% 9.90% 12.87% 7.92% 26.73% 6.93% 6.93%
15 IF YOU WERE A MINING CEO WOULD YOU BE CONSIDERING HEDGING NOW? 1 Yes 53.91% 2 No 46.09%
16 IF YOU WERE A MINING CEO WOULD YOU BE CONSIDERING HEDGING NOW? 1 Yes 2 No 1st Vote 2nd Vote 38.71% 46.09% 53.91% 61.29%
17 RATE THE SESSION Session 4 Producer Hedging/Price Risk Management 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 3.45% 12.07% 35.34% 49.14%
18 DAY 2 VOTING
19 SESSION 5
20 WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO INSTITUTIONAL INTEREST IN PHYSICAL GOLD? 1 Return to limited volumes 2 Fall slightly 3 Stay the same 4 Grow modestly 5 Expand greatly 6.71% 15.44% 13.42% 24.16% 40.27%
21 DO YOU THINK CHINA S AND INDIA S PHYSICAL DEMAND IS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE IN DETERMINING THE GOLD PRICE? 1 Yes 38.41% 2 No 61.59%
22 RATE THE SESSION Session 5 Outlook for Precious Metals 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 3.82% 9.55% 42.04% 44.59%
23 SESSION 6
24 RATE THE SESSION Session 6 PGMs 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 1.72% 20.69% 34.48% 43.10%
25 SESSION 7
26 ARE YOU SUPPORTIVE OF THE LBMA EXPANDING IT S ROLE IN RESPECT OF REGULATION AND NEW SERVICES? 1 Yes 82.03% 2 No 17.97%
27 IS IT TIME FOR THE LBMA TO EXPAND IT S SERVICES GLOBALLY AND BECOME THE WORLD S BULLION MARKET ASSOCATION? 1 Yes 75.36% 2 No 24.64%
28 RATE THE SESSION Session 7 Evolution of the Precious Metals Market 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 0.73% 21.90% 24.82% 52.55%
29 SESSION 8
30 WHAT WILL BE THE BEST PERFORMING PRECIOUS METAL IN 2016? 1 Gold 2 Silver 3 Platinum 4 Palladium 28.00% 23.43% 25.71% 22.86%
31 CONFERENCE LBMA GOLD PRICE FORECASTS Please enter your forecast for 17 th October, 2016 (Allowed range $500 to $2,000) Press to submit your answer Conference Date Latest PM Price Forecast Date Forecast Actual Edinburgh 3-Nov-09 $1, Sep-10 $1,181 $1,298 Berlin 27-Sep-10 $1, Sep-11 $1,450 $1,817 Montreal 19-Sep-11 $1,817 9-Nov-12 $2,074 $1,738 Hong Kong 9-Nov-12 $1, Sep-13 $1,914 $1,341 Rome 01-Oct-13 $1, Nov-14 $1,405 $1,155 Lima 11-Nov-14 $1, Oct-15 $1,200 $1,181 Vienna 19-Oct-15 $1, Oct-16 Yesterday s result was: And today s prediction is:
32 AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT LBMA / LPPM CONFERENCE (17 th OCTOBER 2016) WHAT WILL THE LBMA SILVER PRICE BE? Please enter your response in US $ in the range of $0-$50 and press to submit 35% 17% 19% 0% 0% 4% 7% 6% 5% 1% 3% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 0% Average: 18
33 AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT LBMA / LPPM CONFERENCE (17 th OCTOBER 2016) WHAT WILL THE LBMA PLATINUM PRICE BE? Please enter your response in US $ in the range of $500-$2000 and press to submit 23% 17% 14% 9% 7% 8% 5% 3% 1% 4% 4% 4% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Average: 1072
34 AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT LBMA / LPPM CONFERENCE (17 th OCTOBER 2016) WHAT WILL THE LBMA PALLADIUM PRICE BE? Please enter your response in US $ in the range of $300-$1500 and press to submit 27% 11% 16% 14% 7% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% Average: 844
35 WHAT WAS YOUR FAVOURITE SESSION? 1 Session 1 - Opening Session 9.09% 2 Session 2 - Precious Metals Investment Panel 3 Session 3 - Official Sector 16.36% 10.91% 4 Session 4 - Producer Hedging / Price Risk Management Panel 5 Session 5 - Outlook for Precious Metals 6 Session 6 - PGMs 8.48% 16.97% 22.42% 7 Session 7 - Evolution of the Precious Metals Market Panel 6.67% 8 Session 8 Delegate Feedback & Closing Session 9.09%
36 YOUR FAVOURITE SPEAKER WAS? Press to submit your answer Choice Speaker Choice Speaker 1 Grant Angwin 1.94% 19 Philip Klapwijk 1.29% 2 Gerald Ashley 0.65% 20 Andrea Lang 3.87% 3 John Authers 7.74% 21 Courtney Lynn 3.87% 4 Vaishali Banerjee 1.94% 22 Neil Meader 2.58% 5 Roger Baxter 0.00% 23 Peter Mooslechener 1.29% 6 Vikas Chamaria 1.94% 24 Charlie Morris 3.23% 7 Albert Cheng 1.94% 25 Lord Gus O Donnell 7.74% 8 Anne Dennison 0.65% 26 Diego Parrilla 5.16% 9 Peter Duncan 3.87% 27 Franz Partsch 0.00% 10 Jeremy East 0.65% 28 John Reade 2.58% 11 Alexandre Gautier 3.23% 29 Sean Russo 0.65% 12 Peter Griep 0.65% 30 Gerry Schubert 0.65% 13 Peter Hambro 1.94% 31 Michael Sheehan 5.16% 14 Matthew Hunt 0.65% 32 Jiang Shu 12.90% 15 Hilton Ingram 0.65% 33 Jonathan Spall 1.29% 16 David Jollie 9.68% 34 Jim Steel 5.16% 17 Tom Kendall 1.94% 35 William Tankard 1.94% 18 Raymond Key 0.65%
37 Jiang Shu Speaker prize donated by
38 FEEDBACK - OVERALL IMPRESSION HOW WOULD YOU RATE THE 2015 CONFERENCE? 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 3.70% 7.94% 42.86% 45.50%
39 Next years conference will be in Singapore (16 October 18 October 2016) What would be your preferred venue for 2017? Please use your keypad to text in your response Edinburgh San Francisco Montreal Austria 2015 Lisbon Rome Berlin Montreux 2006 Istanbul Dubai Mumbai Kyoto Shanghai Hong Kong Lima Singapore Johannesburg
40
41 RATE THE SESSION Session 8 Delegate Feedback & Closing Session 1 Excellent 2 Good 3 Adequate 4 Poor 5.67% 9.28% 39.69% 45.36%
42
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