Which back to school retailers are projected to report the highest EPS growth for the calendar 3 rd quarter?

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1 MARKET INSIGHT John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst Media Questions/Requests August 12, 2016 Back to School Retail: Who Makes the Grade? Overview Retail will be a focus area for the market over the next few weeks, as spending on back to school items (clothes, school supplies, etc.) will likely increase over this time frame. Over the past year, internet retailers such as Amazon.com have reported some of the highest earnings growth rates among all retailers. Is this trend projected to continue during the back to school shopping season? Which brick & mortar retailers are expected to outperform and underperform their peers during this period? This Market Insight report will assess the expected performance of S&P 500 retailers during the back to school shopping season by answering the following questions: Which back to school retailers are projected to report the highest EPS growth for the calendar 3 rd quarter? Which back to school retailers are projected to report the highest same-store-sales growth for the calendar 3 rd quarter? Which back to school retailers are projected to report the highest year-over-year increase in the number of stores open for the calendar 3 rd quarter? FactSet is using the calendar third quarter for the analysis in this report because this quarter includes the back to school shopping months of August, September, and October for most retailers. EPS Growth: Amazon.com Expected to Earn an A To receive this report via , please go to: To view other market stories with FactSet content, please go to: FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 1

2 Growth in earnings per share (EPS) is one way to measure the financial strength of a corporation. To analyze EPS growth, FactSet compared the mean EPS estimate (based on estimates submitted to FactSet by industry analysts) to the actual EPS number reported in the year-ago quarter for each company and ranked the year-over-year percentage change. Retailers in the following S&P 500 retail sub-industries were included in the EPS growth analysis because they will likely see some impact from back to school shopping: Apparel Retail, Computer & Electronics Retail, Department Stores, General Merchandise Stores, and Hypermarkets & Super Centers. In addition to the 15 retailers in these five sub-industries, Amazon.com from the Internet Retail sub-industry and Staples from the Specialty Store sub-industry were included in the company-level analysis for EPS growth. Outperformers: Amazon.com and Dollar Tree Of these 17 S&P 500 retailers, Amazon.com is by far expected to report the highest EPS growth at 350%. The mean EPS estimate for Q is $0.77, compared to year-ago EPS of $0.17. If Amazon.com reports year-over-year growth in EPS for Q3 2016, it will mark the sixth straight quarter in which the company has reported year-over-year growth. However, it is interesting to note that analysts have lowered estimates for Amazon.com by 21% (to $0.77 from $0.98) since the start of the third quarter (June 30). This marks the largest decline in the mean EPS estimate for these 17 retailers over this time frame. Despite these cuts to EPS estimates, the company is still expected to be the top performer in terms of EPS growth. Dollar Tree is expected to report the second highest EPS growth within this group of retailers at 100%. The mean EPS estimate for Q is $0.76, compared to year-ago EPS of $0.38. If Dollar Tree reports year-over-year growth in EPS for Q3 2016, it will mark the third straight quarter in which the company has reported year-over-year EPS growth, after reporting three straight quarters of year-over-year declines in EPS from calendar Q through calendar Q Analysts have made no substantial changes to their EPS estimates for Dollar Tree in recent weeks, as the mean EPS estimate of $0.76 today is unchanged from June 30 ($0.76). Underperformer: Macy s On the other hand, Macy s is projected to report the largest decline in EPS of these 17 retailers at -26%. The mean EPS estimate for Q is $0.41, compared to year-ago EPS of $0.56. If Macy s reports a year-over-year decline in EPS for Q3 2016, it will mark the seventh straight quarter in which the company has reported a year-over-year decrease in EPS. However, it is interesting to note that analysts have raised estimates for Macy s by 14% (to $0.41 from $0.36) since the start of the third quarter (June 30). This marks the largest increase in the mean EPS estimate for these 17 retailers over this time frame. Despite these increases to EPS estimates, the company is still expected to be the weakest performer in terms of EPS growth. Same-Store-Sales Growth: Foot Locker Projected to Step on Competition Growth in same-store- sales (SSS) is another way to measure the financial strength of a corporation, particularly for retailers. To analyze SSS, FactSet ranked the same-store-sales growth estimates (submitted to FactSet by industry analysts) for the calendar third quarter for all of the companies in the following S&P 500 retail sub-industries: Apparel Retail, Computer & Electronics Retail, Department Stores, General Merchandise Stores, and Hypermarkets & Super Centers. In addition, Staples from the Specialty Store sub-industry was included in the company-level analysis for SSS growth. Amazon.com was excluded in this analysis, as FactSet does not have SSS growth estimates for this online retailer. Outperformer: Foot Locker Of these 16 S&P 500 retailers, Foot Locker is expected to report the highest same-store-sales growth for the third quarter at 4.7%. If Foot Locker reports 4.7% growth, it will mark the highest SSS growth reported by the company since Q (7.9%). Back on June 30, the mean SSS estimate was 4.5%. Underperformers: Staples and Macy s On the other hand, Staples is predicted to report the largest decline in same-store-sales at -3.2%. If Staples reports a decline in SSS of -3.2%, it will mark the smallest decline in SSS reported by the company since Q (-2.0%). Back on June 30, the mean SSS estimate was -3.0%. Macy s is projected to report the second largest decline in same-store-sales at -2.5%. If Macy s reports a decline in SSS of -2.5%, it will mark the smallest decline in SSS reported by the company since Q (-1.5%). Back on June 30, the mean SSS estimate was -3.1%. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3 Growth in Number of Stores Open: Dollar General is in the Money Growth (year-over-year) in the number of stores open at the end of the quarter is another way to measure the financial health of a corporation, particularly for retailers. To perform this analysis, FactSet compared the mean estimate for number of stores open (submitted to FactSet by industry analysts) at the end of the calendar third quarter of 2016 to the number of stores open a year-ago and ranked the percentage change. Retailers in the following S&P 500 retail sub-industries were included in the analysis: Apparel Retail, Computer & Electronics Retail, Department Stores, General Merchandise Stores, and Hypermarkets & Super Centers. Outperformer: Dollar General & Nordstrom Of these 15 S&P 500 retailers, Dollar General is expected to report the highest year-over-year growth in the number of stores open for the third quarter at 6.4%. The mean estimate for stores open at the end of Q is 13,192, compared to 12,396 stores open at the end of Q Nordstrom is expected to report the second highest year-over-year growth in the number of stores open for the third quarter at 6.3%. The mean estimate for stores open at the end of Q is 343, compared to 323 stores open at the end of Q Underperformers: Macy s and Best Buy On the other hand, Macy s is predicted to report the largest year-over-year decline in the number of stores open (Macy s stores only) at -5.0%. The mean estimate for stores open at the end of Q is 783, compared to 824 stores open at the end of Q Best Buy is projected to report the second largest year-over-year decline in the number of stores open at -4.4%. The mean estimate for stores open at the end of Q is 1,574, compared to 1,646 stores open at the end of Q FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4 *Macy s Only **Excludes Franchise Stores Projected Overall Outperformers and Underperformers for Back to School Retail in S&P 500 Based on these three metrics, which S&P 500 retailers involved in back to school sales are expected to be the overall outperformers and underperformers for the third quarter? To perform this analysis, FactSet ranked all the retailers in each category and took an average of the three rankings to calculate an overall ranking. Overall Outperformers: Amazon.com and Dollar General Amazon.com finished at the top of the list of this group of retailers. However, it should be noted Amazon.com was only ranked in the EPS category. Because the company is an online retailer, it does not report same store sales or report number of stores open. Dollar General had the second highest average rank overall on this list of retailers. The company is projected to report the 3 rd highest growth in EPS, 2 nd highest growth in same-store-sales, and the highest percentage increase in stores open at the end of the quarter within this group of retailers. Overall Underperformers: Macy s and Gap Stores On the other hand, Macy s had the lowest average rank overall on this list of retailers. The company is projected to report the largest decline in EPS, 2 nd largest decline in same-store-sales, and largest percentage decline in stores open at the end of the quarter within this group of retailers. Gap had the second lowest average rank overall on this list of retailers. The company is expected to report the 2 nd largest decline in EPS, the 3 rd largest decline in same-store-sales, and the 3 rd largest percentage decline in stores open at the end of the quarter within this group of retailers. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5 Select S&P 500 Retailers: Average Rank By Growth in EPS, SSS, and # of Stores for Q # Stores EPS Growth SSS Growth Growth Average Company Rank Rank Rank Rank Amazon.com, Inc. 1 N/A N/A 1.0 Dollar General Corporation Ross Stores, Inc TJX Companies, Inc Dollar Tree, Inc Foot Locker, Inc Nordstrom, Inc Urban Outfitters, Inc Target Corporation Costco Wholesale Corporation Best Buy Co., Inc Wal-Mart Stores, Inc L Brands, Inc Kohl's Corporation Staples, Inc N/A 13.5 Gap, Inc Macy's Inc FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6 Important Notice The information contained in this report is provided as is and all representations, warranties, terms and conditions, oral or written, express or implied (by common law, statute or otherwise), in relation to the information are hereby excluded and disclaimed to the fullest extent permitted by law. In particular, FactSet, its affiliates and its suppliers disclaim implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and make no warranty of accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This report is for informational purposes and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned within it. The information in this report is not investment advice. FactSet, its affiliates and its suppliers assume no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this report. About FactSet FactSet is a leading provider of integrated financial information and analytical applications. More than 63,000 users stay ahead of global market trends, access extensive company and industry intelligence, and monitor performance with FactSet s desktop analytics, mobile applications, and comprehensive data feeds. The Company has been included in FORTUNE's Top 100 Best Companies to Work For, the United Kingdom s Great Places to Work and France s Best Workplaces. FactSet is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ (NYSE:FDS) (NASDAQ:FDS). Learn more at and follow us on Twitter: FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 6

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