Norway and the housing market Housing market lunch, London, 10/ Senior Economist Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

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1 Norway and the housing market Housing market lunch, London, 1/4 214 Senior Economist Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets

2 Norwegian home prices have risen strongly Higher purchasing power the major driver 3 Norway: Real Home Prices Index. 1985=1. Selected def lators CPI Annual wages Building costs Disposable income Source: EFF/finn.no/Eiendoms verdi/ Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 2

3 Backdrop: High growth, low volatility Unlike in the US, most Norwegians took part in the income gain 4 Real GDP Percentage volume change, Median Household Income Real income, 25= Mainland Norway Sweden Denmark Euro zone USA Average Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Standard deviation Norway USA Source: Thomson Datastream/Statistics Norway/DNB Markets 3

4 Oil has boosted the economy Both through activity impetus and through increased profitability Oil and gas activity Percentage shares GDP Gross investments Exports Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Terms of trade t-15=1 Exports-/import prices 6 Q Q Q1 24 Q1 29 Q1 214 Denmark Sweden Finland ML Norway Norway Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 4

5 High profitability led to high wage growth Wage shares in line with historical average Compensation of employees Pct change y/y Norway Source: OECD/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Trading partners Norway: Wage share Per cent Mainland, total Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Mainland companies 5

6 Oil boom fading, mainland growth below trend Investments to peak this year as oil price is set to decline to 8$/brl (real) Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Norway: Oil investments Bn 211-NOK Spot Brent Dollar/barrel Source: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets FWD nominal prices Forecast nominal prices Forecast real prices (213 USD) 6

7 Home prices to edge down DNB Markets expect -8% over the next three years 3 Housing prices Percent change y/y Actual/estimate Source: EFF/FINN//Eiendomsverdi/DNB Markets DNB's model 7

8 Limited building boom in Norway Despite record-high population growth Norway: Population and Housing Annual change in Houses completed Immigrants, net Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Population Ireland: Population and Housing Annual change in Houses completed Immigrants, net Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Population 8

9 Indebted households source of concern Ranks high in international comparisons 9

10 Expect lower credit growth Joint effort by authorities FSA guidelines Loan to value (LTV) 85% Debt-servicing capability. Must be able to tolerate +5 bp Must amortise > 7% LTV Bank regulations Higher capital requirements for banks, including counter-cyclical buffer. Fiscal policy Higher wealth tax on secondary homes +75bp increase in subsidized mortgage rates March 214 Monetary policy - Leans against the wind 1

11 Households have net wealth Both sides of the balance sheet has increased Housing wealth and debt Bn NOK Housing wealth Financi al wealth (FW) Kilde: Statistisk Sentralbyrå/DNB Markets Debt FW excl insur.claims 11

12 Oil fund important buffer Fiscal rule (4% of oil fund s value) provides ample leeway Norway: Public wealth Per cent of GDP Gross Net Source: OECD/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets Norway: Structural oil-corrected deficit Actual DNBM projection 4% Source: Ministry of Finance/DNB Markets 12

13 Summing up: Norwegian home prices are high, for good reasons. Reflects exceptional economic performance throughout the past 2 years, and high income growth. are set to decline for the next three years (-8%), as a the oil boom fades and fundamental drivers go from being strongly positive to mildly negative. Moderate income growth, higher unemployment and increasing interest rates. 13

14 Memo: DNB Markets home price model Isolated effects 15 Norway: Model for home prices Effects of 1pp higher unemployment. Ref.scenario=1 12 Norway: Model for home prices Effects of 1pp higher interest rate. Ref.scenario= Model Exogenous housing stock Source: DNB Markets Model Exogenous housing stock Source: DNB Markets 14

15 Memo: DNB Markets home price model Isolated effects 12 Norway: Model for home prices Effects of 1% higher income. Ref.scenario= Source: DNB Markets Home Prices Disposable income 15

16 6 normal annual salaries to buy a home in 213 Highest since Norway: Average home price/normal annual salary Source: Norges Bank/Statistics Norway/DNB Markets 16

17 Price/income 15% above 28-year average Share of income spent on necessities (food, clothes etc) lower than before Consumption of necessities Percent of total consumption Food and clothes Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Housing, shelter and fuels, calc Home prices 1985= Price/Income Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets Price/Income ex necessities 17

18 House prices are high compared to rents But Norwegian rental market is very small 25 OECD: House price to rent ratio Index. Average = DE IR IT US NL SP DK SW GB AU NZ NW Q3 213 Highest ratio since 198 Source: OECD/DNB Markets 18

19 Stable relation between debt and housing wealth After decline during the 199s 1.2 Households: Debt/housing wealth Source: Statistisk Sentralbyrå/DNB Markets 19

20 Limited building boom in Norway Compared to Spain, Ireland and UK 14 Housing investments Percent of GDP. Selected nations Q Q3 2 Q3 24 Q3 28 Q3 212 Spai n Irel and USA UK Norway Source: OECD/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets 2

21 Homes are affordable Affordability decreased for young households and Oslo residents in the 9s Index fluctuates with Mortgage rate Home prices Median income 21

22 Memo: Housing affordability index (HAI) = (Median income/qualifying income) *1 Qualifying income: after-tax income necessary to pay interest and principal on a loan with benchmark conditions for a standard dwelling. The standard dwelling for Norway is 85 m2 (for Oslo 75 m2). Benchmark loan conditions - Loan amount is 8% of market value - Market value is the size of the standard dwelling multiplied by the square metre price from the real estate industry - Self-amortising loan with 3-year term - Interest rate is Norwegian State Housing Bank s 5-year fixed rate - The indicator is at 1 when 25% of after-tax income is spent on interest and principal - No account has been taken of lower principal repayments owing to longer terms and increased use of interest-only periods. Source: Norges Bank s Financial Stability Report

23 Interest rate burden set to rise to 1% in 217 Debt ratio stabilises around 2% Households' debt Percent of disposable income Interest payments Gross debt (rha) Source: Statistisk sentralbyrå/dnb Markets 23

24 Many ways to measure vulnerability 2.4% of households defined as risky by Norges Bank 24

25 Households are saving more than before We expect the saving rate to increase further this year 1 Households' Savings Ratio, pct Total x dividends x dividends & pension premi a Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets 25

26 Households are saving more than before We expect the saving rate to increase further this year Households' financial position NOK bn Deposi ts Stocks Mutual funds Cash and other Insurance Claims Source: Statistics NorwayDNB Markets 26

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