Will it ever fly? Stockholm, May 12, Robert Bergqvist Chief Economist, SEB Group Tel:

Transcription

1 Will it ever fly? Stockholm, May 12, 2011 Robert Bergqvist Chief Economist, SEB Group Tel:

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3 The future of the euro Three questions that need an answer 1. Is the Euro zone an optimum currency area - will it become an optimum currency area within a reasonable period of time? 2. EMU - Can we find the solution to the E? (a complete fiscal/financial regulatory integration) 3. Is Europe ready for the political union and its changes of power within/between countries? 3

4 Required rate of re- turn - risk analyses Globalisation Asymmetric & pro- cyclical fiscal policy "Super cycle" Shortsightedness 4

5 Globalisation & world trade volume World Trade Monitor Index, 2000 = 100 The price of globalisation: Imbalances & debts Global credit stock (2000 & 2009): US$ 57,000bn & US$ 109,000bn Emerging markets World Advanced economies Source: World Economic Forum 2011, Sveriges Riksbank, Feb

6 Building the imbalances Euro 1999 Interest rate Credit expan- sion Economic growth isn't always a sign of success Asset prices Financial services Const- ruction Pro-cyclical, asymmetrical economic policies Wage growth Lisbon Strategy: C/A deficits Europe

7 World's 10 largest "money importers" Share of total global saving deficit Percent Other, 21.8, Greece, 2.9 USA, 40.3 Turkey, 3.3 India, 3.8 Canada, 3.8 France, 4 Italy, 5 Spain, 6.2 UK, 4.4 Brazil, 4.5 SEB calculations based on IMF data 7

8 World's 10 largest "money exporters" Share of total global saving surplus Percent China, 20.0 Other, 26.3, Kuwait, 2.6 Taiwan, 3.2 Germany, 15.0 Netherlands, 3.3 Singapore, 3.3 Switzerland, 3.7 Norway, 5.1 Russia, 5.2 Japan, 12.3 SEB calculations based on IMF data 8

9 2015: "Money importers/exporters" Share of total global saving deficit or surplus. Percent Money importers USA Brazil Australia Spain Turkey Italy France India Canada UK Other ❶❷❸ ❹ ❺❻ ❼ ❽❾❿ Top Money exporters China Germany Japan Norway Switzerland Kuwait Saudi Arabia Taiwan Netherlands Qatar Other ❶ ❷ ❸ ❹ ❺❻❼ ❽ ❾❿ Top SEB calculations based on IMF data 9

10 Still high fever in the euro area 10

11 "The bumpy road of EMU is largely the fault of the driver, not the vehicle" Bini Smaghi, Feb 22, 2011 The vehicle? Economic, Monetary, or Political union? Economic, structural, institutional weaknesses SGP hasn't worked - changing rules during play The driver? "Stop-and-go" strategy - action when costs of immobilisation exceed those of mobility = uncertainty! EU politicians: Merkel, Sarkozy, Berlusconi (Trichet) EU Commission: Barroso, Van Rompuy, Ashton (political or a technical institution?) G20: Mutual assessment process The map? Mind the gap 11

12 Economic policy 12 European semester European crisis mechanisms Euro Plus Pact Euro Six Pack Financial stability Stress tests Need for longer-term macroeconomic and financial discipline

13 Countries' net exposure to foreigners International net investment position. % of GDP. SEB estimates Sweden: 50% in early 1990s EU-16 Germany France PIIGS Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain UK US Japan China Sweden Norway Denmark Finland 13

14 Net international investment position Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece. EUR bn EUR bn Ireland Spain Portugal Greece FDI assets FDI liabilities Equity assets Equity liabilities Debt instruments assets Debt instruments liabilities Other assets Other liabilities Reserve assets Total assets Total liabilities Net investment position Change of debt Source: National central banks, SEB estimates 14

15 Stability at stake for euro zone? Starting point: Optimal Currency Area (OCA) Is the euro zone an OCA? In 1999? Today? Will it become an OCA? EFSF/ESM: "Lender of last resort" on state level From liquidity/funding problems to solvency issues EU money: does not enjoy preferred credit status Steps taken to move closer to a political union "Euro plus pact", European semester, SGP "Germanisation"? Do we have the necessary political leadership? Do we have support from euro citizens to redistribute economic, financial and political power? Greece Ireland Portugal Spain France Belgium Italy 15

16 Junker bonds - a debt solution? Europe makes a copy paste of Brady bonds "Junker bonds" Swap Greek sovereign debt ( 340bn) at market price for new bonds guaranteed by Euro zone states EFSF EFSF buys bonds and agrees with Greece to extend maturities/retire debt Soft restructuring Extend loan repayment: 3 to 10 or even 30 years Same or reduced coupon payments Concerns Contagion effects (banking system in Greece - 80bn of sovereign debt - or in other countries, pension funds) Other indebted countries will do the same Nicholas Brady Brady bonds March 1989 South American countries US commercial banks Tradable instruments Par bonds or Discount bonds Jean Claude Junker 16

17 Euro crisis scenarios 1. Euro zone debt crisis is self-correcting through further austerity measures, exi- sting commitments and global economic recovery 2. Successful default/restructuring/ resche- duling of debt 3. Germany accepts extension of its liability 4. EU leaders accept a breakup scenario 17

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