END USERS QUESTIONNAIRE: QUESTIONS, NEEDS, MEANS

Transcription

1 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) 1 END USERS QUESTIONNAIRE: QUESTIONS, NEEDS, MEANS Dear user of short-term prediction for a weather related power plant, this questionnaire has been designed to give a good overview of the customer demands on weather intelligence tools for the energy sector. In the end, the COST Action WIRE (Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies, see will publish a report based on the results of this questionnaire, which then will enable developers to yield more specific services for the industry. While currently only wind and solar power predictions are used, this questionnaire also tries to assess the (future) need for other forms of renewables, and for other weather related swings in the electrical system. This questionnaire was developed by Olivier Texier of Maia Eolis, on the background of similar questionnaires for the ANEMOS, ANEMOS.plus and SafeWind projects. We work together with IEA Task 14 PVPS on High Penetration of PV Systems in Electricity Grids, who distribute a similar questionnaire, just for solar. Company name: Role of your company in the national electric system: Person(s) filling in this questionnaire: address: Please indicate below which transparency level your answers have (set X): Fine to publish the whole questionnaire with name Fine to publish the whole questionnaire anonymously Just use the answers as part of a general overview / statistical analysis Please return the filled questionnaire before December 15, 2011 to Alessandra Liberto, Telvent, alessandra.liberto@telvent.com and Gregor Giebel, Risø DTU, grgi@risoe.dtu.dk.

2 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) 2 END USERS QUESTIONNAIRE: QUESTIONS, NEEDS, MEANS Scope Current practice Production forecast Prediction for energy management Management of data Tuning/ Extension/ Flexibility Utilisation and tools End users Technical documentation and support Financial Resources Any other requirements or comments... 14

3 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) 3 1 Scope The predictions reviewed in this questionnaire are for the following effects on the power system (please tick any that apply to you): 1.2 Power/energy production Wind power onshore / offshore Solar PV / Solar Thermal Wave power Tidal power 1.3 Energy management Hydro power (including pumping plants) Power losses in the plant or distribution / transmission system Energy / Electricity consumption Cable load / Dynamic Line Rating Energy / Electricity Price Trading / International Exchanges Storage Maintenance of power lines / generation equipment Others (please explain below) 2. Current practice In this section, the current state of the respondent is mapped. 2.1 What is the capacity of each type of production that you are managing (in MW, first coloumn), and for how many MW of this do you get predictions? Wind power onshore / offshore Solar PV / Solar Thermal Wave power Tidal power Hydro power (including pumping plants) Power losses in the plant or distribution / transmission system

4 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) What is the evolution plan of these capacities? 2.3 What kind of tools/data do you currently use for prediction? Please name the tool, and the company you have it from Which (or whose) Numerical Weather Prediction model do you use as input? What are the strong and weak points? 2.4 What are the main use of the following products (Please list or number in priority order) Daily system operations Energy trading Performance monitoring Optimisation of maintenance outages Others (please explain below) 2.5 Have you been participating or will you be willing to participate in R&D or other kind of projects on prediction? If YES Please name them, including sponsor and project website.

5 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) 5 3. Production forecast The details of the existing forecast and the wishes for the future are collected in this section. 3.1 Among the following error indicators, which one do you judge the most relevant? Bias (N)MAE 1 (N)RMSE MAPE Correlation R 2 (degree of explanation) Others (please explain below) 3.2 What level of error is acceptable for each leadtime? 1h, 6h, 12h, Day-ahead, Week-ahead. Error criterion 1h 6h 12h Day ahead Week ahead Others (please explain below) 1 Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error or Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The N denotes Normalisation with the installed capacity. Please refer to Madsen, H., G. Kariniotakis, H.Aa. Nielsen, T.S. Nielsen, P. Pinson: A Protocol for Standardizing the Performance Evaluation of Short-term Wind Power Prediction Models. Project report for the Anemos project, 2003.

6 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) 6 4. Prediction for energy management Please answer these question considering the sectors defined in 1.3: Energy / Electricity consumption Cable load Energy/Electricity Price Trading (International Exchange) Storage Others 4.1 Which prediction system is the company using? (If this is confidential just mention whether it is a statistical or physical model.) Developed in-house Commercial product 4.2 If you do not have a prediction system what would it be the best way for you to set up a prediction tool? In-house By a third party, operated as a service 2 In house operated by a third party 4.3 Would you be interested to include your system in a project for power prediction evaluation? 4.4 If the day-ahead forecast is not correct, what means would be used or involved to compensate the deviation? Storage Production with other plant Cut in production Buy on the market Other (please explain below) 2 This might need that you send company data like wind power plant production online via the internet to the service provider. The third option would, on the other hand, require a remote access for the service provider.

7 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) What is the impact of the deviation of the prediction (+/-) in the management of the production on the market? 4.6 What is the impact on the management of the reserve? 5. Management of data Which variables go in, which come out, and where are they stored? 5.1 Would like to create your own variable or would you prefer the set up of universal variable? Generic variables Define my own: 5.2 Do you need hybrid prediction, for example for a hybrid plant, e.g. wind+ solar? Yes, for those plant types: No

8 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) Do you need each predicted variable separately? Yes No 5.4 How do you wish to store the predictions? Would like to manage them inhouse or by a third party (eventually the one delivering the predictions)? 5.5 Which type of export format do you need? Table Time-series (if so, which file format?) Graphic 5.6 Once you decided on a file-format, do you need to change it occasionally, depending on the operational demands? If so, how often? No Once a year Once a month More often 5.7 Do you require to have database compatibility with a specific database (Oracle, PostgreSQL, MySQL,...)? Yes, for this database: No 5.8 Should the prediction be accessible on-line (externally/internally)?

9 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) 9 6. Tuning/ Extension/ Flexibility Some models need manual tuning, some do it automatically. The extension of a working system to include new wind farms is also in this section. 6.1 Would like to have access to tuning possibilities? For different forecasting tools it is necessary to tune with a data set. Would you require the functionality for your staff to carry out this tuning through the User Interface? Or would you be happy if a third party carried this out? (Note there may be cost implications here for end users) Manually, by own staff Manually, by service provider Automatic Other: 6.2 Do you want to be able to change the set-up (new renewable plants etc)? D o Manually, by own staff Manually, by service provider Automatic by look into internal database Other: 6.3 Any Other Comment:

10 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) Utilisation and tools The questions here regard the end use of the forecasts in the company. 7.1 Is there a specific use of the predictions that might need the development of dedicated tools / programs / applications taking the prediction as an input? E.g., specialised tools for reserve management, scheduling, trading etc.? 7.2 What type of tools would you suggest? For which purposes? 7.3 What would be the constraints on those tools? 8. End users This section regards the personnel using the forecasts. 8.1 Who are the end users of your predictions tools / data (operator, technician, engineer, trader)? Balance responsible Control room personnel Traders Other:

11 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) Could you describe the technical knowledge of the end users in the field? 8.3 How much time per day are they using them? 1-10 minutes minutes 30 minutes -2 hours More / continuous 8.4 How are end users trained (external training, internal training, by doing)? On-the-job training Internal training courses Training by service provider Training by third party Other: 8.5 What do you require on the user screen?

12 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) What are the main difficulties felt by the end-user? 9. Technical documentation and support 9.1 What technical documentation or user manual would like to have access to and how? Printed or online documentation Phone / / other direct contact to the service provider Other: 9.2 Would like to have an extra support in case of extreme events? If so, which skills do you require? Meteorology Power system management Risk management Other:

13 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) On scale from 1 to 5 (1=low, 5=high) what is the priority to have access to a tool referencing and synthesising bibliography on predictions? Very high priority High priority Could be nice to know Low priority Very low priority 9.4 Do you perform a technology foresight? On which field? In which way (mean, time, resources, source,...)? 10. Financial Resources In this section, the cost-benefit ratio of the predictions is assessed What financial resources are devoted to predictions? 10.2 What material / equipment resources are devoted to prediction?

14 COST WIRE Questionnaire on End User Requirements (wire1002.ch) What human resources are devoted to prediction? 10.4 Could you give an order of magnitude of the percentage of the turnover potentially impacted by predictions? 10.5 Compare the savings caused by investments in weather forecasting tools and/or providing the most reliable forecast data with the investment costs? 11. Any other requirements or comments If you have any other requirements or comments please enter them here.