LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN. A PROPOSAL TO IMPROVE THE FLOOD FORECASTING and EARLY WARNING SYSTEM. World Meteorological Organization

Transcription

1 LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN A PROPOSAL TO IMPROVE THE FLOOD FORECASTING and EARLY WARNING SYSTEM World Meteorological Organization

2 2012, World Meteorological Organization 2

3 Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...iii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS...iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...vi Chapter 1 : BACKGROUND LIMPOPO RIVER AND FLOODS Hydrology and Floods of Limpopo River Floods Monitoring and Information Management FLOODS AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT COOPERATION Food Disaster Stakeholder Analysis Regional Policy, Legal and Institutional Arrangements Flood Disaster Relief Operations and Regional Cooperation Flood Risks Management Challenges Inadequate Water Resources and Flood Monitoring Systems Limited Data Exchange and Technical Cooperation Uncoordinated and Incomplete Forecasting and Warning Systems Limited Institutional and Capacity Development Summary of Forecasting Challenges and Conclusions...14 Chapter 2 : REVIEW OF FLOOD FORECASTING AND WANRING SYSTEMS EXISTING FLOOD FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT IN LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System Severe Weather Forecasting System for Southern Africa SADC HYCOS Telemetry System South Africa River Flow Flood Forecasting Systems ARA Sul Limpopo Flood Flow Flood Forecasting System MODEL FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS Real Time Flood and Related Data Monitoring Flood Forecasting Models Flood Early Warning and Response Trans boundary FFEWS Management Practices...34 Chapter 3 : RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVED LIMPOPO FFEWS IMPROVEMENT OF LIMCOM MONITORING SYSTEMS Consolidation and Modernizing Telemetry Network Harmonizing Data Collection and Processing Routines...38 i

4 3.1.3 Development and Launching Data Sharing Systems Trans boundary Telemetry Network Management CONSOLIDATION OF RIVER FLOW FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING Objectives and Outputs of the River Flow Forecasting System Establishment of Regional River Flow Forecasting Centre Development/Commissioning River Flow Forecasting Models Manual of Standards and Guidelines of Limpopo RFEWS RFEWS INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING Technical Capacity Building Programme Development Capacity Building and Training WORK PROGRAMME, INPUTS AND COST ESTIMATES Work Programme and Input Requirements Budget and Cost Estimate of the RFEWS...44 REFERENCES...47 List of Tables Table 1-1 Some Catastrophic Floods and Droughts in Southern Africa... 3 Table 1-2 National Hydro-meteorological Network in Limpopo River... 7 Table 1-3 Public Stakeholders of Limpopo FFEWS... 8 Table 2-1 Limpopo Basin SADC-HYCOS Telemetry Network Station List...19 Table 2-2 Limpopo FFEWS Telemetry Network in Mozambique...23 Table 2-3 Limpopo FFEWS Cross-section Location and Distances Apart...26 Table 2-4 Table of MRC Flood Risk Management Strategies and Priorities...36 Table 3-1 Work Plan...43 List of Figures Figure 1-1 Limpopo River Basin Showing Location and Riparian States... 2 Figure 1-2 Cyclone Vulnerability Map of Eastern Southern Africa... 5 Figure 1-3 Inundated Area along Limpopo River during February 2000 Floods... 6 Figure 1-4 Botswana Telemetry Network and Village Flood Watch... 7 Figure 2-1 Limpopo Telemetry Network Implemented by ARA Sul as Planned...25 Figure 2-2 Telemetry System for Limpopo River FFEWS as Constructed...26 Figure 2-3 Model Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System...28 Figure 2-4 Three Operational Components of NWSRFS...29 Figure 2-5 MIKE FLOOD WATCH Infrastructure Framework...31 Figure 2-6 MIKE FLOOD WATCH Interfacing with Model Tool...32 ii

5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This proposal to improve the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for the Limpopo River Basin has been prepared on behalf of the World Meteorological Organization by Mr Orborne N. Shela, Majiatua Engineering Services, Lilongwe, Malawi with cooperation and support from the Limpopo Water Course Secretariat and the riparian states of Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The World Meteorological Organization appreciates and acknowledges the excellent support provided to Mr Shela by: Mr. Sergio Sitoe, Interim Executive Secretary of the Limpopo Water Course Commission Secretariat; Mr. Brink Du Plessis from the caretaker/flood management office manager for SADC HYCOS at Department of Water Affairs, South Africa; Mr. Chivambo, Director General of ARA Sul and his staff tor arranging logistics for and conducting the field trip to Lower Limpopo River, and Officials in National Hydrological Services, National Meteorological Services, National Disaster Management Services and other stakeholders in the riparian countries for their support and contributions during consultations. iii

6 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ADB ARA Sul CSD CHR CS DHI DFID DMCPA DWA DWAF EPS ESP EU FFEWS FFG FMM FMMP GDPFS GeoSSFM GIS GIZ GPRS GSM GTS HEC INGC IWRM LAN LBPT LBPTC LIMCOM LINUX LNB MAP MRC NDA NGO NHS NMC NMHS NMS NWHS NWP NWS African Development Bank Regional Water Administration for the South in Mozambique Circuit Switching Data Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine River Calibration System Danish Hydraulic Institute British Department for International Development Disaster Management and Civil Protection Authorities Department of Water Affairs (South Africa) Depart of Water Affairs and Forestry (South Africa) Ensemble Prediction System Ensemble Streamflow Prediction European Union Flood Forecasting Early Warning Systems Flash Flood Guidance Flood Management and Mitigation Flood Management and Mitigation Programme Global Data - Processing and Forecasting System GeoSpatial Streamflow Forecasting Modelling Geo-Information System Germany s Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit General Packet Radio Services Global System for Mobile Communications, Global Telecommunication System Hydrologic Engineering Centre of US Army National Institute of Disaster Management of Mozambique Integrated Water Resources Management Local Area Network Limpopo Basin Permanent Technical Limpopo Basin Permanent Technical Committee Limpopo Watercourse Commission A Computer operating system developed by Linus Torvalds of Sweden Low noise block-down converter - satellite receiver component Maximum Amount of Precipitation Mekong River Commission National Directorate of Water Affairs of Botswana Non Governmental Organization National Hydrological Service National Meteorological Centre National Meteorological and Hydrological Service National Meteorological Service National Weather and Hydrological Service Numerical Weather Prediction National Water Services of United States iv

7 NWSRFS PC PIU RFEWS RGS RMC SADC SADC-HYCOS SARFFGS SHEF SIDA SMS SQL SWFDP UN UNDP UNIX USAID USGS WIGOS WIS WMO National Weather Services River Flow Forecasting System Portable Computer Project Implementation Unit River Forecasting and Early Warning System River Gauging Station Regional Meteorological Centre Southern African Development Community SADC-Hydrological Observing System Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System Standard Hydro Meteorological Exchange Format Swedish International Development Agency Short Message Services Structured Query Language - for relational database management Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project United Nations United Nation Development Programme multitasking, multi-user computer operating system United States Agency for International Development United States Geological Survey WMO Integrated Observation System WMO Information System World Meteorological Organization v

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. BACKGROUND This proposal to improve the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) for the Limpopo River Basin was prepared for the World Meteorological Organisation for the benefit of Limpopo Watercourse Commission, a trans-boundary organisation established by riparian states (Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe). The LIMCOM recognizes the issues associated with integrated water resources management and, in particular, flood risk management in the basin. In this regard it has embarked on the development and implementation of a Strategic Framework and Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Plan with programmes and activities centred on disaster risk reduction and water quality and water allocation management. The request for the development of this proposal is a contribution to the LIMCOM Strategic Plan implementation and its preparation and adoption is in response to growing concerns of a lack of coordinated and the non-availability of a real time FFEWS in the Limpopo River. This is despite the Basin experiencing and being impacted on by devastating floods. In recent past, the river has experienced major floods in, for example, 2000, 1999, 1996, 1985, 1997, 1975, 1972, and The worst of these floods occurred in 2000 when: More than 500 people died; More than 2 million were displaced; The Mozambique s part of the river swelled from less than 100 metres wide to 10 to 20 km wide for a more than 100 km stretch and inundated more than 1,400 km 2 of farm land; and, More than 20,000 cattle were drowned in Mozambique alone. These devastating floods in the Limpopo River Basin are often related to the cyclonic activity, as well as other heavy rainfall events. However, the river also experiences droughts and is at times a basin under water stress with some of the worst droughts occurring in 2003, 2002, 1995, 1994, 1992, 1991, 1987, 1984, 1983, 1981 and These droughts also have a major impact on the peoples of the Limpopo River basin. Attempts have been made in the past to monitor Limpopo River flows and mitigate droughts and flood disasters but have met with limited success. All riparian countries have river gauging and weather stations where some relevant data and information for flood forecasting and early warning system development and operation is collected. This includes that collected from SADC-HYCOS stations. The SADC-HYCOS project, which ran between1998 to 2005 or thereabouts, installed some 28 stations in the basin with at least 5 in each country except in Mozambique where it had two. In addition to this, a USGS assistance project installed 8 automatic real time gauges in Botswana and a World Bank project in Mozambique installed 19 real time gauges in Lower Limpopo (Mozambique). Some flood forecasting and early warning models were also installed in Mozambique using MIKE 11 and its upgrades and GeoSSFM. Staff personnel in the NHS were trained and the capabilities to install and service the telemetry equipment were developed. However, less than 14% of these real time stations are now working and the FFEWS is struggling to be operational, in the main due to inadequate project design, technical issues and maintenance problems. vi

9 The vulnerable communities and general public that are impacted on by the flood disasters in Limpopo River Basin are the primary stakeholders that would benefit from a fully operational and effective FFEWS. However, the current levels of capability in this trans-boundary river Basin impose considerable challenges to efforts of improving the Limpopo River Basin FFEWS. The challenges of trans-boundary flood risk management are being somehow lessened by regional cooperation besides LIMCOM. Regional cooperation endeavours include the sharing of meteorological data and information among National Weather Services of the region through World Meteorological Organization s Global Telecommunication System (GTS). This facilitates forecasting the likelihood of severe weather, including floods, using meteorological data and information. It can also provide the National Hydrological Services the necessary input to flood forecasting. This puts National Weather Services and National Hydrological Services in the forefront of the regional operational stakeholders with responsibilities for the Limpopo River Basin FFEWS. Other operational stakeholders are the National Disaster Management Authorities in the four Limpopo Basin countries. The Limpopo Permanent Technical Committee, which is also an advisory organisation to the four riparian governments, is a strong regional stakeholder. It has task teams under it and the Flood Task Team is one of them, which now also serves under LIMCOM. From a funding perspective, the donors such as the World Bank, DFID, USAID, GIZ and African Development Bank, are providing technical and financial assistance in disaster risk management and trans-boundary water resources management, and this makes them also stakeholders in the Limpopo River Basin FFEWS. SADC acts as project catalyst stakeholder as all the riparian countries are its members and SADC itself is implementing trans-boundary water resources management projects including those on floods. The SADC Water Division s Revised Protocol on Shared Watercourse sets the policy, legal and institutional environment for establishment of trans-boundary river basin cooperation institutions such as LIMCOM and determines how cooperation in building instruments and tools for trans-boundary river basin management, like FFEWS, should be implemented. It is also important to note that organizations that deal with flood disaster relief, preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery coordination and implementation are also important stakeholders, with defined roles and responsibilities. However, this review and evaluation of the existing FFEWS indicates that the Limpopo River Basin continues to face flood risk management challenges which include: (i) (ii) (iii) Inadequate water resources information and flood monitoring systems necessary for collecting data and information. Such data and information are fundamental to establish, operate and maintain an effective and efficient river flow forecasting systems or FFEWS; Limited data exchange and technical cooperation between National Weather Services and National Hydrological Services within the country and among National Hydrological Services within the Limpopo Basin. This prevents sharing of hydro-meteorological data for real time flood forecasting and warning; Uncoordinated and incomplete forecasting and warning systems. The few systems that do exist cover a small portion of the basin and are not, therefore, representative, accurate, not fully developed. There are no river forecasting systems which would be used as decision support in water allocation, water quality vii

10 (iv) and pollution control. This further poses a challenge to LIMCOM who are expected to advise riparian countries on disaster, water allocation and water quality pollution control management; and, Limited institutional and capacity development. Currently there is no regional centre that can coordinate telemetry work, lead in river flow/flood forecasting and early warning system development and issue regional flood warning products. There are also limited or inadequate resources in the National Hydrological Services (NHS) and Disaster Management authorities and inadequate technical and administrative competence among the existing personnel at NHS s. 2. REVIEW OF THE FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS The challenges described above are being manifested in emerging opportunities but limited coordinated development regarding flood forecasting and early in the Limpopo River Basin. The existing opportunities in flood forecasting developments in the southern African include: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) The Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System (SARFFGS, project, which is developing tools for flash floods forecasting and warning using the estimation and forecasting of antecedent rainfall as well as excess rainfall amounts that trigger flooding in catchments of less than 200 km 2, using satellite and radar derived estimates of rainfall that are to some extent verified by observed rainfall at weather and rain-gauge stations; The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project for Southern Africa is a project that uses Numerical Weather Prediction capabilities to forecast severe weather events, including the intensity and movement of rainfall events and severe winds. The data and information gathered facilitates the development and use of severe weather forecasting including conditions likely to give rise to floods; The SADC-HYCOS project supported the installation of hydrological monitoring stations for real time hydro-meteorological data acquisitions at selected stations throughout SADC under Phase I and II. However, Phase II has yet to be finalised and those stations that have been installed have problems related to ongoing operation and maintenance. Currently, only 20% of the SADC-HYCOS stations in Limpopo River Basin are fully operational. Despite this, it has been recommended that all SADC-HYCOS stations in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe parts of Limpopo River catchment be reactivated, repaired or installed to form part of the Limpopo River Basin FFEWS telemetry network because they represent an adequate network for FFEW for the catchments in the three countries. Perhaps consideration could be given to the repackaging of those elements of the SADC- HYCOS as a Limpopo-HYCOS; The South Africa River Flow Flood Forecasting System has a telemetry system that has at least two real time communication mechanisms at each station. This has ensured availability of data at all times in the Orange River basin. The system also made use of a National Weather Service (USA) River Flow Forecasting System (NWSRFS) Model as the basis for a FFEWS in the Orange River. The system was developed with assistance from US government. The assistance included provisions for capacity building. However, the system has not been maintained due to hardware problems and inadequate data being generated by national telemetry stations in South Africa. Currently, the system makes use of a home grown model for flood forecasting based on flood routing and limited viii

11 (v) rainfall/run-off modelling due to problems with NWSRFS based FFEWS. At this stage, it seems impractical to extend the NWSRFS model to the Limpopo River Basin as a whole; and, The ARA Sul Limpopo River Flood Forecasting and Early System which is based on MIKE 11 and was developed in 2005 or thereabouts, following the installation of a radio based telemetry system in the Mozambique s part of Limpopo River Basin. However, the MIKE 11 based FFEWS is not working due to data transmission issues from the telemetry system and problems related to the boundary conditions of the model. There are also concerns with the routing component as the crosssections used were more than the channel width. ARA Sul is now using a GeoSSFM based FFEWS with data collected from satellite and radars in South Africa and data from its own telemetry system as input to rainfall/run-off modelling component. This FFEWS can only give indicative results as contributions from Botswana and Zimbabwe are still not incorporated into the FFEWS. Thus the Limpopo River basin does not have a coordinated and effective basin wide and fully functional FFEWS to take advantage of the above opportunities and those offered by technologies advances in establishing an ideal FFEWS. An ideal FFEWS requires end-toend components from flood monitoring systems, through flood models to effective warning dissemination mechanisms and connections with emergency and disaster response. These components include: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Real time flood and related data monitoring where data and information on hydrometeorological conditions are measured and collected by telemetry equipment, radars and satellites and transmitted in real time using telephones, satellite, radios and cellular telephone technology throughout the basin by various stakeholders and easily shared among all stakeholders concerned; Flood forecasting models that are calibrated and operated to generate highly accurate and timely forecasts that are used to developing actions intended to save lives and protect property from floods. The prominent models are the NWSRFS and MIKE 11 and its upgrades such as MIKE FLOOD WATCH, with the latter having an edge over the former when it comes to use in a trans-boundary river basins as it allows forecasting from at least two locations, meaning it can be operated from a regional centre and four sub-centres in the four riparian states; Flood early warning and response where, subject to the agreement of all countries, a regional centre should not only issue warnings but also advisory statements on what should be done and what should not be done before, during and after a flood warning is in effect as the forecasters have better knowledge of the river behaviour; and, Trans-boundary FFEWS management practices which are being used to coordinate and implement FFEWS involving at least two countries. The experiences in Rhine and Mekong River basins are regarded as the best examples. In Rhine River FFEWS is done by individual NHS s in each country using data and information readily available from that country and other riparian countries as well, which is facilitated by the Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine established by scientific institutions interested in the hydrology of the Rhine River. In Mekong River basin the FFEWS was implemented after the establishment of Mekong River Commission by lower Mekong riparian states of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. It (Mekong Commission) has successfully established the FFEWS based on MIKE 11 and its upgrades with a regional centre ix

12 in Cambodia. The setting up of Mekong River Basin Commission is similar to that in Limpopo River Basin where LIMCOM is in a position to use the riparian agreement to establish an improved Limpopo River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System. 3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVED LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN FFEWS The limited resources and development in the Limpopo River Basin make it imperative to recommend that an improved FFEWS for the Limpopo River Basin be designed, financed and implemented on the basis of: Building upon existing resources and efforts particularly in improving its monitoring network for data and information acquisition systems and existing flood forecasting models; Reorientation of its objectives and outputs to that of a river flow and flood forecasting and early warning system; and, Institutional development and capacity building to consolidate the capabilities of the basin s states to operate and maintain the systems. These three areas of improvement are further summarised as follows. 3.1 IMPROVEMENT OF LIMCOM MONITORING SYSTEMS It is recommended that detailed design, rehabilitation or installation of the proposed LIMCOM telemetry stations, data collection programmes and respective manual of standards, guidelines and procedures be prepared, commissioned and implemented. The following activities are recommended to achieve this: - (i) (ii) (iii) Consolidation and modernizing of the telemetry network based on the SADC- HYCOS stations in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe and the ARA Sul telemetry stations in Mozambique part of the Limpopo River Basin. All the stations should be rehabilitated and installed with appropriate sound and robust equipment decided upon after thorough field surveys and assessment of the existing equipment and conditions of the stations. It is also recommended that all stations should have satellite or mobile phone based communication systems with backup radio or other forms of communications at each station wherever possible but especially at stations critical to modelling; Harmonization of data collection and processing routines where different methods, procedures, standards and guidelines are used for data collection. A standard guidance manual should be produced. The operation and maintenance for all of the LIMCOM telemetry stations should use and follow the manual to ensure compatibility and uniform accuracy of data collected from all the stations and used in the FFEWS; Development and launching data sharing systems where it is recommended that protocols, procedures and mechanisms for sharing data between and among NHS and NWS within and among riparian states be developed and commissioned early into the project. The communication software such as GTS and WMO Integrated Global Observation System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS) would be considered to establish such real time sharing mechanisms; and, x

13 (iv) Trans-boundary telemetry network management where it is recommended that the LIMCOM FFEWS telemetry stations operation and maintenance is audited by LIMCOM itself. LIMCOM may also wish to provide the training/expertise hub for the operational and maintenance activities. 3.2 THE RIVER FORECASTING SYSTEM The decision support requirements of LIMCOM in the integrated water resources management for the basin necessitate the reorientation of the objectives for improving the FFEWS to be support and inform decision making regarding: Flood forecasting and warning services needed for safety of life and protection of property in vulnerable areas; Flood forecasts to safeguard and be used in the operation and maintenance of water resources infrastructures such as dams and reservoirs; Flow forecasts to be used to optimize water resources conservation decisions in the operation of dams and reservoirs by assisting in optimised scheduling of reservoir release operations; and, Flow forecasts to be used to optimize water allocation and water quality pollution control by rational and reasonable control of water right abstractions from and consent to discharge water wastes into the river and its tributary basins. It is, therefore, proposed that in improving the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for the LIMPOPO River basin, consideration is given to its design, development, operation and maintenance that meet and satisfy the above listed wider objectives. In effect, the resulting River Forecasting System would have the following outputs:- (i) Regional River Forecasting Centre established and running; (ii) River Forecasting Models fully calibrated and running with the RFEWS as a major component and providing Flood Forecasting and early Warning capabilities; and (iii) A manual for the updating, operation and maintenance of RFEWS s. These outputs are expected to be achieved with activities that include:- a) Establishment of Regional River Forecasting Centre where LIMCOM will survey, select, negotiate and partner with one of the existing institutions to be the host of the river forecasting centre. Each riparian state will also designate its own institution to serve as sub-centre for the Limpopo RFEWS; b) Development and commissioning of the river forecasting models complete with flood forecasting and early warning system based on, for example, MIKE FLOOD WATCH; and, c) Development of the Manual of Standards and Guidelines of the Limpopo RFEWS, which should be used at the regional centre and sub-centres in each riparian states and will cover updating, operation and maintenance of RFEWS and what to do and not to do before, during and after flood warnings including activities during flood watch, flood disaster relief operations and recovery period and crafting warning and advisory statements. xi

14 3.3 RFEWS INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING The institutional development and capacity building programme development and implementation will also commence with survey and evaluation of the capacity of existing NHS in terms of resources and personnel required to design, install, update, operate and maintain the telemetry stations and the river forecasting and early warning system as described above. Thus the RFEWS institutional development and capacity building will be accomplished by the following activities:- (i) Technical Capacity Building Programme development which will involve surveys and evaluations of the institutional capacity and preparation of respective RFEWS institutional development and capacity building programme; and (ii) Capacity Building and training where the regional centre and national subcentres of the RFEWS should be resourced and the staff trained through conducting the adopted RFEWS institutional development and capacity building programme and using the developed manuals, as among the training materials. The development and implementation of the RFEWS institutional development and capacity building programme should take lessons from the development and implementation of the SADC-HYCOS. The emphasis should, therefore, be on building capacity for updating, operation and maintenance of the entire and all components of river flow forecasting system. 3.4 INPUTS AND COST ESTIMATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RFEWS As there is some existing infrastructure, it is estimated that the work of establishing the RFEWS will require a period of two and half years with the main activities lasting for eighteen months. It is also assumed that the regional centre and national sub-centres will be housed in the existing agencies and buildings. The majority of the telemetry equipment installation works can and will be carried out by the trained staff in each country. The technical assistance envisaged is that that of a Project Manager and Engineer, who will comprise the core Project Team. The Team will update this report and procure extra equipment, install all the equipment with assistance from riparian trained staff and carry out capacity building and training. The team will also assist in procurement of the services of flood forecasting modelling consultants/contractors who will supply, install, calibrate and commission the RFEWS and train counterpart staff accordingly. This may take a little longer than 18 months but it is expected that the personnel that LIMCOM will hire locally will follow up with the contract until the RFEWS is handed over. It is proposed, therefore, that only specifically identified input requirements such as RFEWS hardware and software; and, provision of technical assistance will comprise the project financial input. In this regard, the cost for developing an improved River Flow and Early Warning System for the Limpopo River Basin is estimated to be approximately US$3.0M. The breakdown of the budget and cost estimate of the input can be summarised as follows:- (i) Improvement of telemetry system and data collection; 400, 000 (ii) RFEWS development contract 1, 500, 000 xii

15 a. PC work stations and accessories b. PC servers one for each RFEWS Centre c. Modelling Software and licenses purchase (4 sets) d. 36 man-month consulting $22,000 (iii) Project Manager & Project Engineer 500, 000 (@ $15,000 & $12,000/mm for 18 months) (iv) Support Services and Running Costs 600, 000 a. Project Vehicles two d/c $60,000 each b. Vehicle running costs at $9,500 per month field work c. Office Running Cost -$ 8,000 per month for 18 months d. Workshops and Training transport and accommodation, etc. xiii

16 LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN A PROPOSAL TO IMPROVE THE FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Chapter 1 : BACKGROUND This is a project proposal for upgrading the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for Limpopo River Basin. It has been prepared by the World Meteorological Organization for the benefit of the Limpopo Watercourse Commission (LIMCOM), an advisory and coordinating body established under an agreement by the four riparian states of Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The objective of LIMCOM is to...advice...and provide recommendations on the uses of Limpopo, its tributaries and waters for purposes and measures of protecting, conserving and management of the Limpopo. LIMCOM has its interim secretariat in Maputo and is the main institution that implements the LIMCOM agreement adopted in In an effort to achieve LIMCOM s objective, the secretariat is currently coordinating the preparation of an IWRM Strategic Framework Plan whose objective is to develop the capacities (individual, organizational and institutional) in the riparian states for the sustainable management and development of the Limpopo River Basin. The Plan has an IWRM Programme that has three main themes of: (i) (ii) (iii) Disaster management where LIMCOM is coordinating the preparation development and implementation of: a. disaster preparedness, b. early warning systems for floods and droughts; and, c. development and management of water resources infrastructure for mitigating the impacts of floods and droughts; Water Quality Management where LIMCOM has activities that include to: a. promote adoption of common water quality standards for abating transboundary water pollution; b. facilitate development of a trans-boundary water quality monitoring and reporting system; and, c. Coordinate the implementation of best practices in water pollution control pilot schemes and assessment and dissemination of best practices on abatement of trans-boundary water pollution. Water Allocation where LIMCOM develops and implements strategies and action plans that: a. Promote water resources benefit sharing through equitable and reasonable utilization of water resources in Limpopo watercourse; b. Facilitate water resources and water use monitoring through dissemination of data and information on water resources and water utilization; and, c. Promote water availability and efficient use through encouraging water conservation methods that increases water efficiency and water availability in Limpopo Watercourse or River Basin. LIMCOM itself was established by and currently reports to Limpopo Basin Permanent Technical Committee, LBPTC. The LBPTC was formed in 1998 with the responsibility of 1

17 advising the four governments on the management of the Limpopo River, including flood management. The four riparian states recognize the importance of cooperation in dealing with the nature of droughts and flood disasters in Limpopo River Basin. Hence, this is a joint proposal for improving flood forecasting and early warning system in the Limpopo River. The recognition arises from the complexity and challenges of basin itself and its hydrology, which are further elaborated in the following sections. 1.1 LIMPOPO RIVER AND FLOODS The Limpopo River is some 408,000 km 2 and flows for a distance of 1,750 km from its headwaters near the border between South Africa and Botswana. Its catchment area distribution among South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique is 45%, 20%, 15% and 20%, respectively. The Limpopo flows between the border of South Africa and Botswana, then between South Africa and Zimbabwe before it flows through Mozambique. It eventually enters the Indian Ocean at Zongoene near Xai-xai, Mozambique. Figure 1-1 Limpopo River Basin Showing Location and Riparian States Limpopo River Basin Map After The floods and droughts in the basin are further complicated by the disparities in climatic and rainfall distribution with most of its catchment area under semi-arid conditions. However, the 2

18 catchment is occasionally influenced by tropical cyclones that can dump significant amounts of rain causing phenomenal floods in Limpopo River. Thus it is highly prone to floods and droughts disasters. Table 1.1 shows some of these devastating droughts and floods. Table 1-1 Some Catastrophic Floods and Droughts in Southern Africa Year Type of Disaster Influenced By Cyclone Affected Areas and Some More Details 2008 Flood Jokwe Zambezi, Púngue, Búzi and Save rivers in Mozambique flooded. Zambezi River flooded for more than two weeks with 258,000 people affected and more than 100,000 displaced in Mozambique 2007 Favio Zambezi River flooded more than 120,000 displaced and 250,000 people affected in Mozambique. ( one.asp) 2003 Floods Delfina Zambezi River flooded. Seven people died and more than 30,000 people displaced in Malawi and more than 400 homes washed away in Mozambique Drought Drought period for most of rivers on the southern east coast of Africa with some parts of Limpopo Basin affected. More than 43 districts affected in Mozambique, including those in Limpopo River Basin 2001 Flood Dera Zambezi River flooded, with 115 deaths reported and more than 500,000 affected in Mozambique and 340,000 people affected in Malawi. ( Flood Elaine, Gloria and Huda Limpopo, Maputo,Umbeluzi, Incomati, Buzi and Save rivers severely flooded. Some 640 deaths recorded and more than 2 million people affected, EN1 main road in Mozambique closed for several weeks, 1999 Flood Floods in Limpopo ( Pungwe, Buzi and Save rivers and in Inhambane province Mozambique with EN1 closed for several weeks; 100 deaths;70,000 people affected in Mozambique alone 1997 Flood Lisette Floods in Buzi, Pungue and Zambezi rivers; no road traffic to Zimbabwe for weeks; 78 deaths; 300,000 people affected in Mozambique alone 1996 Flood Bonita Floods on all southern rivers of the country; (including Limpopo River) 200,000 people affected in Mozambique alone Drought Southern east of Africa river basins, including Limpopo, with more than 1.5 million in Mozambique alone. Major crop failure and outbreak of cholera epidemic Drought Extensive drought in southern Africa countries and some 1.32 million people severely affected 1987 Drought 8000 affected in Inhambane province 1985 Flood Floods in southern provinces of Mozambique including Limpopo River; and recorded worst flooding in 50 years 0.5 million affected Drought Drought Most of the Mozambique affected. Cholera epidemic and many deaths from drought, which further worsened the suffering of the people from civil war war 2.46 million people affected in south and central parts of Mozambique 1981 Flood Floods on Limpopo river ;0.5 million people affected 1980 Drought Southern and central parts of Mozambique affected Hydrology and Floods of Limpopo River The hydrology of Limpopo River Basin is influenced by the highly seasonal distribution of rainfall over the catchment area. 95% of rainfall falls between October and April with peak mean monthly totals in February. The distribution varies quite considerably from as low as a mean of 200 mm per annum in the western most semi arid part of the catchment to a mean 3

19 of over 1,500 mm per annum in the south middle part of the catchment while the eastern part, near the Ocean, it averages 600 mm per annum. The basin mean annual rainfall is some 530 mm. However, most rainfall events are highly episodic but intense, usually associated with convective thunderstorms and sometimes cyclones. The Limpopo River Basin climatic conditions have led to its hydrology being characterized by flash flows in the headwaters and highly seasonal flows with most streams and a good part of the main channel having a dry river bed during dry season months. The mean annual hydrograph indicates that the mean dry season flows are as low as 20 m 3 /s (in September and October), and, higher than 590 m 3 /s at their peak in February. The flood hydrographs in the flood plains at Chokwe, however, show the main river rising rapidly to exceptionally high annual peaks averaging about 1,600 m 3 /s with severe floods reaching over 17, 750 m 3 /s while mean peak flood water levels rises from 0.5 m to 5 metres. During severe floods the water levels rise to over 13 metres, for example like those of 2000 floods. Note that the flood alert or warning level at Chokwe is 4.0 metres. The floods in Limpopo River Basin are caused by heavy rainfall from tropical depression formation as well as cyclone induced rainfall in the catchment area (see Figure 1.2). The passage of cyclones in the catchment area is by far the major cause of heavy rainfall resulting in phenomenal floods, shown in Table 1.1. The impacts of these cyclones on flood disasters were significant in 2000, 1999, 1996, 1985 and as, shown in Table 1.1. Besides, information available further indicates that Limpopo River also experienced major floods in 1955, 1967, 1972, 1975 and The majority of these floods were associated with the presence of tropical cyclones in or within the vicinity of the Limpopo River Basin. The Limpopo River Basin can be in the path, impacted directly by cyclones or within their vicinity, (as shown in Figure 1.2) as cyclones can cover an area 150 to 1,000 km wide. The worst of these cyclones were those that occurred in February The first was cyclone Eline, which caused heavy rainfalls throughout the Limpopo River Basin. In Botswana part of the catchment, for example, rain gauges registered more than 1,000 mm in a single storm event, which was more than half of the average annual rainfall total. The exceptional storms resulted in floods occurring throughout the basin in Botswana, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. In Mozambique s flood plain, the Limpopo River itself swelled from less than 100 metres to10 to 20 km wide, as shown in Figure 1.3, and inundated more than 1,400 km 2 of farm land and drowned more than 20,000 cattle, apart from the impacts shown in Table 1-1. It is important to note that droughts also impact on the basin as shown in Table 1-1. Droughts further reduce the river flows and water availability significantly, with cases of water scarcity rampant amid increased demand in the basin. This creates high competition for water abstraction as well as demand for waste water disposal, resulting in conflicts of interest among users that can be understood better and sustainably solved with the assistance of analysis and evaluation of relevant data and information of river flows. Management of the water demand, therefore, requires the river flow monitoring and relevant information management that facilitates sound decisions for appropriate sharing of the limited water resources among users and the riparian states. 4

20 Figure 1-2 Cyclone Vulnerability Map of Eastern Southern Africa NB. Cyclone Path or Tracks Map (modified after Atlas of Disaster Preparedness and Response in the Zambezi Basin) Floods Monitoring and Information Management The availability and use of real-time data and information on rainfall, water levels in rivers and their incorporation in flood forecasting models can facilitate forecasting river flows and floods, which can accordingly facilitate issuing of warnings to vulnerable communities and general public against impending floods. There are 2,700 rainfall stations and some 700 river gauging stations (shown in Table 1-2) that provide data and information on river flows/floods in the Limpopo River Basin. The monitored and collected data and information from these stations is processed, analysed, stored and disseminated by the National Hydrological and Meteorological Services or their agents in all the four riparian countries. The National Weather Services use the Global Telecommunication System, GTS, to transmit and share data and information, including that of rainfall, among fellow NWSs in the riparian countries. 5

21 Figure 1-3 Inundated Area along Limpopo River during February 2000 Floods February 2000 Limpopo Floods showing Flooded Area (after Limpopo River Awareness Kit) However, the majority of these stations collect daily (recording time interval) data and information, which are compiled and archived monthly. The comment column in Table 1.2 indicates a few hydro-meteorological stations that are telemetry or real time reporting or automatic stations that collect data and transmit data to databases or servers or whenever programmed (less than daily time intervals). There are also automatic weather stations that report or disseminate rainfall data daily to National Weather Services and then other regional national weather services, through the GTS. Rainfall estimates can also be obtained from available weather radars in Xai-xai (under rehabilitation) and Pretoria. These are also capable of monitoring and reporting rainfall in real time or near real time. There are 102 and 18 telemetry stations in the South Africa and Mozambique part of the basin, respectively. In July 2011, all the stations were working and reporting in South Africa while in Mozambique only 12 were working although none was reporting to the base station in Maputo. Vandalism, particularly of solar panels and batteries, and a lack of maintenance on damaged equipment, were cited as the main problems affecting the stations that were not working. The damaged (failure to maintain) repeaters at Mapai, Vouga, Mpuza or Combomune are the main reasons for the failure to transmit data to the Chokwe, Massingire and Maputo database stations (for further information read section 2.1.5). There are no real time RGS reporting in Botswana and Zimbabwe. In Botswana a telemetry system was developed in early 2000s with the assistance of United States Geological Survey, USGS. The system was established together with Village Flood watch that utilised the data collected from the telemetry system. Figure 1.3 shows the map with locations of automatic meteorological (reporting barometric pressure, temperature, wind speed, relative 6

22 humidity and rainfall) and hydrological (water level/flow) stations developed in Botswana in 2001or thereabouts. However, due to vandalism and lack of capacity to operate and maintain, the telemetry system is not working now. In the Zimbabwe part there are no real time or near real time data and information monitoring stations in Zimbabwe part of the basin. The Limpopo River Basin, therefore, has limited telemetry system and the available data and information is inadequate for flood forecasting and early morning development, operation and maintenance. Table 1-2 National Hydro-meteorological Network in Limpopo River Country Rainfall Stations River Gauging Stations Comment Botswana No real time RGS reporting or archiving Mozambique Real time Reporting RGS South Africa 2, Real time reporting RGS, including SADC-HYCOS stns Zimbabwe ~70 85 No real time RGS reporting or archiving Figure 1-4 Botswana Telemetry Network and Village Flood Watch Map with locations of the installed and upgraded hydrologic and meteorological stations with telemetry systems (After D.P Turnipseed at ) 7

23 1.2 FLOODS AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT COOPERATION Food Disaster Stakeholder Analysis Floods and disaster management in the Limpopo River Basin impact on:- 1. The vulnerable communities and general public living or having business in the flood prone areas; 2. The Government ministries and Departments responsible for monitoring and issuing flood warnings and taking responsibilities in the development and implementing flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery; and, 3. The donor community and NGOs that assist in the development and implementation of flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery programmes. The vulnerable communities and general public are mainly in rural areas and the poor living below UNDP poverty line of US $1.25 per day with obviously very limited capacity to be resilient against flood disasters. Flood disasters worsen their poverty as the little they have is often washed away, damaged or lost forever. The general public are the travellers, investors, who travel or carry out work in flood prone areas. They get inconvenienced together with vulnerable communities when roads, bridges, telecommunication, farms, buildings or homes are impacted by floods in one way or another. The LBPTC, LIMCOM and its interim secretariat, the government ministries and departments are the public sector stakeholders. These public sector stakeholders are listed and described for each country are in Table 1.3, including their interest or responsibility. Table 1-3 Public Sector Stakeholders of the Limpopo FFEWS Country Department/Ministry Interest/responsibilities Botswana Mozambique Department of Water Affairs Meteorological Services National Directorate of Water, DNA ARA, Sul National Institute of Disaster Management, INGC. National Roads Authority Policy and implementation on flood monitoring, forecasting and warning Water resources management Policy and implementation of climate and weather data collection and forecasting Policy and implementation on flood monitoring, forecasting and warning Water resources management Planning, development and implementation of FFEWS and water resources management Policy and coordination of flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery Safety of roads and bridges from floods 8

24 South Africa Zimbabwe Department of Water Affairs South African Weather Services National Disaster Management Authority National Weather Service Department of Civil Defence Office Zimbabwe National Water Authority Policy development and implementation on flood monitoring, forecasting and warning; and, Water resources management Policy and implementation of climate and weather data collection and forecasting Policy and coordination of flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery Responsible for climate and weather data and information Coordinate flood disaster preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery Planning, development and implementation of FFEWS and water resources management. At the regional scale, SADC is another multilateral stakeholder as all riparian states are its members. SADC has the Revised Protocol on Shared Watercourses in Southern African Development Community as its legal instrument for cooperation among basin member states in the joint management of trans-boundary rivers, including the basin-wide flood forecasting and early warning system establishment, operation and maintenance. The importance of SADC is the provisions of the Revised Protocol that obligate member states to share data and information such as that required in and generated by the flood forecasting and early warning system. SADC is also running various regional projects on water resources management particularly trans-boundary water resources studies in Zambezi, Limpopo and Orange River basins. The donor community, including the World Bank and United Nation Development Programme, UNDP, has regional and country programmes for disaster risk management. The German International Development Agency, GIZ, also has regional programmes that support trans-boundary water resources management activities such as the work proposed herein. There are also a number of multilateral development agencies such as DIFD, SIDA, EU, WMO and USAID who support various disaster risk management programmes in Southern Africa, by providing technical and financial assistance. The donor community stakeholders are mainly contributing to the implementation of the UN Hyogo Framework of Action for Disaster Risk Reduction and assisting in the creation of a supportive regional environment for flood disaster risk management cooperation in Southern Africa Regional Policy, Legal and Institutional Arrangements This proposal for the improvement of Limpopo River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System is being made under the auspices of LIMCOM, which has been established under an agreement signed by all the four riparian states. LIMCOM itself is modelled along the lines of the SADC Revised protocol on shared watercourses and its functions, as quoted from the agreement, promote, among others:- 9